Posted on 08/28/2004 2:20:56 PM PDT by varina davis
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2004
...FRANCES STRENGTHENS INTO THE SECOND CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE OF THE 2004 ATLANTIC SEASON...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ON SUNDAY.
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES AND THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.6 WEST OR ABOUT 690 MILES...1110 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND FRANCES COULD REACH NEAR CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY ON SUNDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...17.9 N... 52.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 948 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST.
FORECASTER STEWART
Uh oh...
Even as we speak, hubby is in the garage cutting plywood to fit our sliding doors to the back porch!
I just called daughter so we could line up our contigency plans.
Looks like Frances may cross the tip of Florida and head into the Gulf toward New Orleans.
Thoughts and prayers.
LVM
ditto!
I'm supposed to head down to Florida next weekend to photograph a wedding, but that may not happen. I'll be watching Frances carefully.
Another one for Daytona
Yep. I hope Mother Nature has some respect for the wedding plans!!
Just don't go "Weather Channel" on us and decide to take some pix from "inside" the event, if it goes that way.
I try to imagine my boss telling me to go an area of an expected weather event and do some broadcasting.
Of course some of those folks would not have to be asked.
Strange people, indeed.
LVM
Thats the same ridge that is keeping the newest T.S. pinned against the Carolina's with basically no movement. The T.S. is wanting to re-curve but cannot. Francis will be probably Jekyl and Hyde for a few days, increase and decrease in strength, it all depends on what part of the metamorph it is when it makes landfall. South Florida should be on a serious alert by the first of the week. Francis might just skirt the coast like that powerful hurricane a few years back. Cat. 4 and looking like buzz saw right now...it will probably begin the fluctuation process by Sunday night.
Heads up ping!
Incoming
Question from earthquake country: What are the chances of Francis dissipating like Earl did?
Heh Heh - Jim Cantore (sp?) has nothing on me!! I guess I ought to bring the video cam along as well!
It is all part of Bush's master plan to disenfranchise minority voters in South Florida so he can steal the election like he did in 2000. /DU-Mindset
Sailed these same waters, actually sailing the Trade Winds a little further north @ 21 degrees north, in December (after the hurricane season) of 2002. Sailing a 15 meter yacht from Grand Canaris to Antigua ... would not want to be in these waters this evening.
Don't suppose there's any chance of some shear to knock the stuffings out of it?
sissyjane,
It would have to hit a wall. It would have to encounter a dry air mass or some swift moving high altitude wind shear. Right now, it will begin to fluctuate in it's power and intensity...it will be strong one day and maybe weaker the next "not much". It may jump from Cat.5 to cat.2 in 24 hours...but if it churns unimpeded, it could remain a very power storm as it makes landfall. They are truely amaizng to watch. Each hurricane is different as begins to evolve and devolve. No two are alike, they can change their path and power without notice.
Nothing we do, can lead them or guide them. They are only guided by winds aloft (low/high pressure systems, jet streams, wind shears) and the natural re-curve of the earth's atmosphere.
Time for S. Florida to pray...this one has you in it's sites.
We
Are
Ready
My house is ready. Made it through Andrew and five others before him, we'll make it thru Francis, too. Locked and loaded.
We lived through Agnes in '72. No wind, just lots and lots of water. I can still remember the smell of flood mud. Let's hope Frances fizzles :) You all are in our prayers.
Yikes!
948 mB is pretty bad.
Thank you both for the lesson. I will be saying a prayer.
I can't imagine living in the south east, and having somthing like that staring at me.
At least with an earthquake you don't know it's coming. No time to get frightened until it's over.
Whoa. That's one heck of an eye...
I'm the same way.
I'm still battened down and ready for GQ. Two near misses this year and hopefully no more to go.
If you guys need anything, dont hesitate to ask.
Pretty slim over the next week. There's nothing out there to shear the top of the storm and waters only get more favorable as she chugs WNW.
If she clears S. Florida and moves into the Gulf there may some new conditions that could degrade her, but it's very difficult to predict those conditions more than a week in advance. But with some degree of certainty we can believe that Frances will be near the tip of Florida next Friday, and that she'll still be a major hurricane. She may approach Category 5 status by tomorrow.
I know I shouldn't say this....
And I'm sure you understand that I would *never* with for anyone to be hurt or their homes to be damaged or destroyed..
Yet something about the power of a hurricaine ir fascinating and beautiful to me...
Part of me wants it to hit here... just to experience the power.. .. but again I know it does damage and negatively affects people's lives and I wouldn't want that. But I am a science nut, and there is that part of me that thinks it's pretty cool.
I remember Andrew, and the one thing I remember was FP&L's transfomers exploding. (FP&L is our power company) They light up the sky so bright, that it looks like it's daytime (this was about 2am) only it's this eerie blue-green glow..like what daytime looks like on another planet, with a star that emits light of a different color... and they blew one after the other right down the street like dominoes.
Frances, if you decide to come this way, I'll be ready, chump. ;-).
Bones
I have a bad feeling about this one.
Good post
I'm in Juno Beach, and I have a REAL bad feeling about this one.
Dixie! California has already suffered enough fools!!! Can't they just stay in new yawk???
Can she sustain that kind of strength for very long, or does becoming this strong this far out increase the likelihood she'll peter out before she gets close to the mainland?
#7..Thanks, we need them.
"Just don't pull a Kerry:
"Bring it on!... Oh Gawd! Get 'em off me! Someone get 'em off me!""
Well, I might pull a Kerry if I said "bring it on" and then my girl and I end up hunkered in the bathtub with the dining room table over our heads to keep out the elements.. ;-) But I live in a pretty strong apartment complex and I think it will be akoy.. we are bout 5 miles from the beach, but there isn't really a clear wind path anywhere around my apartment.. lots of trees and other buildings around. I can't say I haven't though about the possiblity of a gust getting in under the screened in porch we have and lifting the roof. (fingers crossed)
Bones
Charley was on the flip side of that, as it had begun a rapid intensification cycle just as hit Florida, jumping from a Cat 2 to a Cat 4 in just a few hours.
I don't know that any storm that gained major (Cat 3 or more) status has ever not really petered out, except for the ones that sling NE into the open Atlantic to die.
Heh. Heck, I'd probably be out there tying stuff down right now, to the disapproval of the apartment management no doubt.
Here's praying it doesn't hit you guys. It looks like a monster.
Sheesh.
5.56mm
Labor Day Weekend,,,this one looks bad to me.
It's heading straight for New Jersey..unless McGreevey resigns..
#44...Your coast or mine?
A flip of the coin at this point.
If there is a probability that it hits either coast as a cat 5, we're buggin out to Macon.
And it is so nice outside right now...
5.56mm
If this thing gets to category 5 and stays there, I would leave the state if is tracking towards me late next week! Lets keep our fingers crossed on this baby.
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