Skip to comments.China's need for oil expected to dominate energy scenario
Posted on 09/02/2004 5:33:25 PM PDT by hedgetrimmer
While the United States' attention is focused on the Middle East and Iraq, it is China that will dominate the world energy picture in the near future, a petroleum economist told Montana's gas and oil producers Wednesday.
"China has gone berserk," said Michael Economides.
"In the last decade, China's oil consumption increased by 2.5 million barrels a day, the largest in the world so far," he said. "The U.S. consumption increased by 1.8 million barrels a day.
"If China were to use the same per capita consumption as the United States, it would require 80 million barrels of oil a day or more than the entire world uses," Economides said.
Economides spoke at the Montana Petroleum Association's annual meeting in Billings. About 200 attended the function at the Sheraton Hotel.
Economides is a professor at the University of Houston. He is also the chief technology officer for the Texas Energy Center and the co-author of "The Color of Oil: The history, the money and the politics of the world's biggest business."
He was proud to expound on his prediction of $50 a barrel oil made a year ago and his analysis of the energy needs of the world and the United States in the coming two decades.
"It may go even higher soon," he said of the price of oil, which in recent weeks flirted with the $50 benchmark, but has since eased to the low $40s.
He said the United States should pay more attention to what is going on in Venezuela where President Hugo Chavez is a bigger threat to U.S. security than was Saddam Hussein. A recent recall election in Venezuela failed to remove Chavez from office.
Economides said natural gas prices at $10 per thousand cubic feet will remain for some time and he agrees with Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan that the importation of liquid natural gas "is the only solution" to future natural gas demand in the United States.
China's need for energy "will be China's choke point," he said. "Expect a very assertive, if not belligerent, posture.
"This would be a normal expectation," Economides said. "Geopolitically, it will be seeking the same energy sources as the West and domestically, it will be embarking on massive nuclear development with all its other ramifications."
He said China's energy future passes through Russia which has huge deposits of natural gas.
He warned, too, of the political situation in Russia where President Vladimir Putin is trying to "resovietize Russia."
"Iraq has diverted U.S. attention from Russia," Economides said.
Early in his presentation, he provided a graph that demonstrated energy consumption is a real indicator of the wealth of nations.
The U.S. is at the top of the list. By comparison, Mexico, China and India are at the lower end of the chain.
"Which country would you like the United States to be," he asked as a retort to those who would have this country use less energy.
Since World War II, the United States has been on a steady downward trend in its use, he said, because "we have become more efficient."
And he dismissed global warming as akin "to alchemists' claim to change lead into gold."
In greenhouse politics, the data contradicting the alarmists' claims does not matter, he said.
In another presentation to the MPA members, William Hansen, a petroleum geologist from Great Falls, outlined the oil and gas production Alberta compared to Montana in the "Thrust Belt" on the east slopes of the Continental Divide. The Thrust Belt is a geological formation created when the Rockies were formed and the deposits of gas and oil were trapped underneath them.
He said that in Canada, 19 trillion cubic feet of natural gas has been developed to date. In Montana, 0.007 tcf have been recovered.
"The trend stops at the border," he said.
He said 1 tcf heats 9 million households for one year.
Hansen said in 2003 Canada exported $62 billion in energy to the United States, including $23 billion in natural gas from the Thrust Belt.
That very phrase discredits the writer, IMHO.
Why is that?
Don't forget steel and aluminium
Where do you think the Chinese can find the oil to fuel their ecomony?
While I see in the news the danger of China possibly invading Taiwan, I have thought about this for a year now. China is bursting economically requiring massive natural resources she does not have.
We had better move much faster in getting away from oil. The next world war is going to be fought over this like all other wars fought over money, resources and greed.
Bump to read later.
China will be where the next world conflagration originates. It does not control the resouces it needs.
Plenty of LNG deals with Australia.
WESTERN Australia's Pilbara region, with its vast iron ore and natural gas reserves, will be an important contributor to China's booming economy and a significant player in changing international geopolitical dynamics.
To echo Khruschev's crudities, the Malacca Straits will be the _____ with which one can squeeze China. ANd with India pumping up its navy, and the Russians setting up alliances with India and Vietnam, expect the CHinese to be contained by non-US forces.
1) Seek to produce more and more synthetic fuels.
2) Look to better securing sea lanes to the Mid East.
3) Look to Siberia.
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