Skip to comments.Poll numbers are not so rosy for bush... don't relax yet
Posted on 09/04/2004 11:55:34 AM PDT by JeffersonRepublic.com
The poll numbers are good, but not as good as the results show. The sample is using more republicans then democrats and using voter from states that the President has a lead. But we still got a good bonus and some momentum.
Dont relax the race is still close! The next newsweak (sp intended) poll will probably say Kerry is the new comeback kid and the sample between republicans and democrats will be reversed. You have to watch the lefts media because they will use and abuse you.
SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR REGISTERED VOTERS SUBGROUPS: 1,008 Registered voters (plus or minus 4)
374 Republicans (plus or minus 6) 303 Democrats (plus or minus 6) 300 Independents (plus or minus 6)
310 Republican states (plus or minus 6) 409 Swing states (plus or minus 6) 289 Democratic states (plus or minus 7)
You're a little late. Everyone here has already posted this 20 times. I still think it's somewhat bogus, because Bush's bounce is actually bigger than even this suggests. Kerry's train is not only off the tracks, it is blowing up. The Rasmussen 54% approval is the best indicator of Bush's likely finish. Very soon the panicked Dems will start to spend their money protecting their now-vulnerable Senate candidates.
Well, I hadn't seen this breakout before....
My take on it would be that they purposely used more Rep. so in the next few days they can say the bounce is vanishing and it looks like a tight race again.
I, for one, will continue to work as if Bush were 5 points behind. I want Bush to carry Florida with a comfortable margin, and I will not rest.
On the other hand, it's good to drink a beer to a big Bush bounce after the convention, especially while waiting for this hurricane to move out of my state.
I believe they statistically adjust for that. Also it seems this is a poll of registerd voters, which means that any skew is likely made up for. Plus half the poll was taken before Bush's speech and his numbers are better after his speech. So his current numbers are likely higher. Plus, it is right in line with other polls, namely Rasmussen for approval and Time with the 11 point lead.
Is so, it makes sense that the sample is going to be skewed towards Republicans if Bush is in the lead because many people who don't really have a party affiliation are going naturally say they are Republicans after deciding they are voting for Bush.
I see Republicans and Democrats complaining about "the sample" after seeing a poll that disagrees with them but I'm not sure it really matters.
If Newsweek and Time as well as others are acknowledging a big lead for Bush, then it is probably even bigger.
I hope that you are correct about the Senate races. We should see indications of the Dems protecting "their seats" soon.
Have you any poll info on the Daschle race in SD? I am curious about that one, but I am too lazy to research it myself.
The numbers have been a little too good for my comfort. Call me paranoid, but I wouldn't think it too extreme to have these polls falsely reported in order to lull Pres. Bush supporters into a state of complacency. We need to keep on working as hard as if he were way behind.
How do you explain away the Time magazine poll?
I love the sound of that.
Republicans 94 4
Democrats 14 82
Independents 45 40
From the same poll. I edited out the cretins voting for Nader. Left column is W, right is Lurch. Note the number of Dems crossing party lines. I think this is the most important bit of the poll.
Polls show Republican John Thune of South Dakota inching closer in his race to unseat Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle, a Democrat, with two months remaining until Election Day.
A Republican poll shows Mr. Thune a former congressman who lost to Sen. Tim Johnson, South Dakota Democrat, in 2002 pulling slightly ahead of Mr. Daschle, while a Democratic poll shows him at least closing the gap.
The Republican poll, conducted Aug. 24-26, showed Mr. Thune leading 50 percent to 48 percent over Mr. Daschle. The survey of 500 likely voters by Glen Bolger of Public Opinion Strategies had a margin of error of 4.38 percentage points.
Two days ago, there were two separate polls showing Thune with a 1-2% lead.
2) The GOP, at least here in OH, is only BEGINNING to crank up the GOTV drive. For ex., the sign party doesn't even happen til Sept. 12, but the Dems have already had theirs (by the way, my current count in southern OH is Bush/Cheney 65 bumperstickers, Kerry/any Hate-Bush sticker, 30).
3) Rove has a campaign strategy that is even better than what I've let on. The Dems are in for a real surprise on election day.
I suspect a big W bounce out of the convention is going to help Thune too. Is a 1-2% lead enough to overcome the dead injun'Dem vote in SD?
Lets now pile on and work hard to reelecte the President
Two months to go
Oh yah. It was something like 500 votes last time. Thune could have contested it, but in retrospect probably good that he didn't. You rarely win those, and he would look like a crybaby.
If Bush carries the independent vote the race is over.
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