Skip to comments.Poll numbers are not so rosy for bush... don't relax yet
Posted on 09/04/2004 11:55:34 AM PDT by JeffersonRepublic.com
click here to read article
Well, lets hope that 1-2% Thune lead get even larger. What about those 3700 Republicans Dashole says support him? Bunk, right?
I am excited about these poll number but I refuse to get tooo cocky. Just remember, there is the 60 minutes interview coming up about Bush and the National Guard and also the Kitty Kelly book. The libs are just drooling waiting for these two to come out. Of what I heard of the Kitty Kelly book its going to be a book full of lies.
Who is relaxed? A turn of events like this just gets me juiced even more. Blood in the water, go for the kill right up to election day!
Kerry simply isn't believeable. He is where he is in the polls because of the lies and the slime. More slime now and Kerry will dig the hole even deeper. BRING IT ON!
I have a feeling this stuff will backfire on the Kerry camp as long as Bush keeps plugging along and doesn't stoop to his level which he wont'. He's too good a man to do that and the American people have seen that. I still have a smile on my face from the convention.
Agree, but you make it seem like we don't have aces up our sleeves, either. We do. Maybe some really big ones.
Kerry's massive ego won't let the Swifties attack him without responding, though, and we still may have a couple of unpleasant terrorist incidents before Nov.
I think, this being the first post 9/11 election that is actually the correct breakdown...I doubt Time/Newsweek thinks that..but they may be right by accident.
I feel the same way and I'm doing the same thing up in Minnesota!
The last I heard was a poll (by a GOP polling firm, I think) that had Thune over Daschle 50-48%.
The President will do what he does best. He will go out and talk to voters about his vision for the country. He won't let Kerry move him off message. The slime will backfire.
LS. The problem with your analysis is that politics is very fluid. What you are correctly observing--(sic) that the train is off the tracks-- is correctable even over a 60 day period. Kerry will be coming hard and fast with negative hype, and something may be able to stick.
Remember that even though we all felt so good about the speeches made, we often forget that when attacks are made, counterattacks will also come. Those have not yet been fully made or evaluated.
Let's keep watching and observing for a couple of weeks, then we will know
I really don't care if they're a bit over inflated. The pain an turmoil it's caused over at the DU has been most enjoyable.
Urge everybody to talk it up with your friends, neighbors etc. to vote we need every one.
What we are witnesseing is a two-fold phenomenon that has been a long time comin' (to borrow CSNY's phrase). First is a crackup of the liberal media that has become completely uncompetitive and thus obsolete. They not only fail to get the right spin, they are now failing to get the right STORIES (i.e., the Swifties). So the media has been committed to "saving Private Kerry" for months, and yet its approach has been to dutifully parrot the Kerry campaign's theme of "He's-a-hero, don't-question-his-record." But even when they defend him, they again RAISE his record in the context of defending him, and it is that which has, in part, caused his collapse. His only claim to be able to defend the country against terrorism was that very record, and nothing else!
Second, we have watched for 20 years as the Dem Party has tried to staunch the bleeding of centrists and moderates to the GOP. Clinton was successful for 8 years because he adopted the guise of a liberal Republican. But he was smart enough to sign welfare reform and the defense of marriage act. The radical Dems will not tolerate such positions, and Kerry isn't nearly slick enough to keep them in line.
It will be interesting to see the Senatorial candidates distancing themselves from K. And going by 2002's boldness, Bush is sure to be full speed ahead helping totally receptive Pub candidates out. If this occurs, Kerry, and the Crats in general, will be deep in a hole that will be near impossible to climb out of.
whatever the numbers are, they're better than they were last Sunday on an astronomical scale.
I think that Newsweek may have weighted the results accordingly, to make up for a Republican-heavy result.
The poll has n=1008.
In the three-way race, Mr. Bush receives 52%, Mr. Kerry receives 41%.
But in the table marking the strength of interviewees' likelihood to vote for Bush or Kerry, we see:
Bush: 541 interviewees
Kerry: 403 interviewees
The numbers add up to 944, which is not quite 93.7% of the total of 1008 interviewed. Even if the samples are weighted, we would expect their aggregated totals to approximate the poll's results, and they do. Between Bush and Kerry, in the three-way race, we see a total of 93%.
541 is 54% of 1008
403 is just short of 40% (39.98%) of 1008
This suggests to me there is some weighting go on of the raw numbers. If Democrats polled are weighted a little heavier than Republicans polled, then that explains Mr. Bush's reported percentage of 52% being a little lower than the 54% of the raw totals, and it explains Mr. Kerry's 41% being a little higher than the 40% of the raw totals.
Correction: Post was addressed to JeffersonRepublican.com, not LS.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.