Posted on 09/05/2004 12:25:25 AM PDT by lainie
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 45B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
3 AM EDT SUN SEP 05 2004
...LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE FRANCES CONTINUES MOVING INLAND... ...EASTERN PORTION OF EYEWALL WITH STRONG WINDS STILL TO COME...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND BAHAMA...ABACO...BIMIMI AND THE BERRY ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...ON THE WEST COAST...FROM ST. MARKS SOUTHWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN END OF THE PENNISULA TO JUST SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY ON THE SOUTHEAST COAST...AND FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR FLORIDA BAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM WEST OF ST. MARKS TO PANAMA CITY.
AT 3 AM EDT...0700Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.4 WEST OR ABOUT 13 MILES WEST OF STUART FLORIDA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 25 MILES EAST OF OKEECHOBEE FLORIDA.
FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE EYEWALL HAS ALREADY MOVED WELL INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF PALM BEACH...MARTIN AND ST. LUCIE COUNTIES. A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THE ENTIRE EYE OF THE HURRICANE INLAND BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. HOWEVER... RESIDENTS IN THE EYE OF FRANCES ARE URGED TO REMAIN INSIDE SAFE SHELTER SINCE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE EYE...ACCOMPANIED BY HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH...MAY TAKE UP TO ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS TO REACH SOME PORTIONS OF THE MARTIN AND ST. LUCIE COUNTY COASTLINE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED AS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE EYEWALL MOVES ONSHORE. AFTERWARDS...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM. A WIND GUST TO 95 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED OVER THE NORTHERN END OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN STILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE WEST AND SOUTH SIDES OF ISLANDS OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS IS EXPECTED IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE PATH OF FRANCES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST OF FLORIDA.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD REACH 20 INCHES OVER GRAND BAHAMA IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...TO NEAR 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.
REPEATING THE 3 AM EDT POSITION...27.2 N... 80.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 960 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT.
FORECASTER STEWART
You guys are lucky at least that you still have power now. How's it going in general?
Rough when a shelter has to be evacuated. We can only wonder what kind of horrible mess awaits first light.
On Thursday I picked up my brother and his family at DFW Airport - they had flown in, via Orlando, from their home in Vero Beach. They are resigned to having nothing left when they return, but we continue to pray for a quick diminishing of the storm and it's impact.
Oh, that's terrible; I'm sorry. They must feel the need to be "realistic" about it all. Well, they may get a pleasant surprise, plus, they're alive and together and with family.
Thanks for starting this thread. I'm in Seminole county, just north of Orlando. My house still has electricty, but most of my neighbors do not.
Lots of gusts of wind and periodic downpours. The worst is yet to come.
Karl, can you get me a link to that graphic?
ping
My sister lives on the west coast, near Tampa (New Port Rickety). That's near where the storm is to exit and head up to the panhandle. But I doubt she'll get much other than a lot of rain, and some wind. Doesn't Rush Limbaugh live on some island or islet right near West Palm Beach? Wonder how his pad is doing.
Nope. It's his schtick, apparently. He must want people to hate his guts. Otherwise he wouldn't act that way.
http://www.srh.weather.gov/serfc/lakes/Central_FL/Lake_Okeechobee/index.htm
it is the second row below the Lake map...
24 hr precip / Melbourne CWA
How lucky that you're still wired for lights & computers! I'm sure the night noises are the worst. Screaming wind and deluge of rain. Yikes. Stay safe out there & keep us updated.
The senior refugees woke up last hour asking if and where the storm made landfall. Had to tell them. Softened the news as much as possible. They trudged back to bed.
Listening to the hurricane net....some out of state stations checking in from Sequim, Wa., Toronto, Germany, etc.
In case you were wondering, these hams are linked locally over the air, and then over the internet using VOIP, which is similiar to the Vonage phone service, or Voice over Internet.
During Hurricane Charlie, "net control", the operator who controls the stations reporting in, was successfully completed by a ham in New Zealand.
It is pretty quiet right now, but one ham did just check in from Broward County stating 90 mph winds (coconut creek)
LOL!
Yes, I believe Rush lives in Palm Beach. Not sure were exactly.
Your sister is likely already getting bands from the storm even though its just coming ashore on the east coast. This is one big storm.
I'm afraid the Gulf is going to start feeding the storm before we even get the backside.
Last fall, we in the Northwest got hammered by one of the Pacific storms that come in from time to time. My power was out for about a day and a half.
Now, these are not hurricane class storms. (but I think at one point a windspeed of somewheres near 130mph has been recorded on the Washington coast).
For weeks after the storm, you couldn't find gas cans.. generators... portable stoves anywhere.
Then, right before Christmas, alot of the stuff started showing at local pawn shops. Picked up a nice Coleman 1850 watt generator for two bills. (retails for about 6)
So, after the season is over, and right before Christmas, do some exploring. You'll find some exceptional bargains.
Thanks. I'm under no delusions. I'm sure power will go anytime now, and with it so will go my cable modem.
Thanks for the explanation. I've been wondering how it worked (listening too).
I'm going to get some rest.. catch ya in a few hours.
STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
LAKE OKEECHOBEE IS BEING AFFECTED BY STRONG TROPICAL STORMS FORCE WINDS
WITH FREQUENT HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS. CONSEQUENTLY THE LATEST REPORTS FROM
THE LAKE LEVEL AS OF 1 AM WERE SHOWING ABOUT 17 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL
AROUND 8 MILES NORTH OF THE SOUTH END OF THE LAKE AND WAS AROUND 8 FEET ABOVE
MEAN SEA LEVEL ON THE NORTH END...A DIFFERENCE OF ABOUT 9 FEET. AS FRANCES
CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE LAKE...THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
THE WATER AS HIGH AS 18 TO 20 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON THE LAKE SIDE OF THE DIKE IN HENDRY AND WESTERN PALM
BEACH COUNTIES. THIS WOULD AFFECT AREAS FROM CLEWISTON TO SOUTH BAY...BELLE
GLADE...PAHOKEE AND PORT MAYACA. THE HOOVER DIKE PROTECTS INHABITED AREAS TO AT
LEAST 30 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. RITTA...KREAMER AND TORRY ISLANDS WILL BE
FLOODED AT THESE LEVELS INCLUDING SOME CAMPGROUNDS AND ROADS. THE HIGHEST WATER
LEVEL WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH END OF THE LAKE...BETWEEN LAKE HARBOR AND BELLE
GLADE...EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BUT WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN SHORE AS THE WIND
BACKS AROUND TO THE WEST ACROSS THE LAKE BY LATER IN THE MORNING AND THEN
FINALLY AROUND TO THE NORTH END OF THE LAKE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WIND
BACKS AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH.
Thanks for the ping Lanie
Didn't you notice that he was leaning to the right all day? What do want from the guy who was described as an accomplished yachtsman while he was mistakenly reporting that an anchored sailboat was trying to move across the Inland Waterway?
Stay safe, NautiNurse!
ping
It's raining and windy in Florida again. Everybody get their checkbooks out, 'cause government's gonna "help" put everything back in place for the next round of Hurricane Roulette next year.
He was following a sailboat/manned earlier in the day, anyone know what happened to it?
ping
mistakenly reporting that an anchored sailboat was trying to move across the Inland Waterway
What was the real scoop on this?
Something about your nic assures me you aren't joking. I'm too exhausted to assure you how inappropriate your post is in this thread. Take it to the religion topic, and post away, newbie.
Remember in Geraldo's book "in the vicinity near me" means within the boarders of an entire nation someplace.
Stay Safe.......
But is it really necessary for the rest of the country to watch hour after hour, as one reporter after another does stand up shots in front of breaking surfing, solemnly informing us how stupid it is for anyone to be standing in that very spot right not.
*sigh*
I'm done now. I don't mean to minimize the importance of this story, or be insensitive to anyone who's being harmed by the storm or who is threatened by it, but ... honestly ....
I see it as a positive.
why?
Because it means the media has no time to spin the RNC convention into oblivion. The media is letting the words and images speak for themselves. Let the media lay down.
Thanks, Squantos.
Yes I saw they evacuated his base. First time that's ever happened, I believe.
Seriously, a lot of people nationally have family affected by this storm. The national coverage is the next best thing when phones don't work.
Does any Freepers know how bad it is in LAKE WORTH?
Send some/all of that rain up to us in York, Penna. It's *bone dry* here, despite the so-called *wettest* year in 15 years. We'll take all that Frances can deliver.
Sorry, can't help you. Lake Worth is almost 3 hours south of me. It is not far from the eye of the storm.
Thank you for your reply. I thought it was close. My best friend lives there. Please stay safe! My prayers are with you my frient and all Fl Freepers.
Be careful !
frient=friend
Thanks for the prayers. We'll pray for your friend as well.
We are all hoping for your safety...
Hello, new to posting here.
Although I've lived in Florida on and off for thirty years, I've never experienced the winds predicted for our area.
I live in a block home, an older home, we redid.
We haven't evacuated as the county we live "Citrus County" made it mandatory or mobile homes only.
To be quite honest I'm scared. If it were up to me, I would have evacuated, I fear mostly of any tornadoes the storm may cause.
My two grandchildren live with me, I fear for them most.
Saying a Prayer for all in Frances path. God Speed to all.
Indeed!
Boarded up all the windows on the house yesterday, but then started wondering if I was overreacting.
Now I'm glad I did it.
Thank you so much. I have family as well all over FL, but not sure where they are all at this point.
Welcome to FR. You will be glad you are living in a block home. Stay safe!
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