Skip to comments.Rasmussen SUNDAY Poll
Posted on 09/05/2004 8:58:27 AM PDT by Turk82_1
Sunday September 05, 2004--The Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows President George W. Bush with 48% of the vote and Senator John Kerry with 46%. The Tracking Poll is updated daily by noon Eastern. Two-thirds of the interview for today's report were completed after the President's speech on Thursday night.
Over the past nine days, Bush has been ahead eight times and the candidates have been tied once. Senator Kerry has not been ahead in the Tracking Poll since August 23.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
THIS is the poll we'll all hear about.
I don't understand their numbers, they sure don't change much even as all the rest change drastically.
Isn't this one of the automated polls?
Edwards DOB: 10 Jun 53
Cheney DOB : 31 Jan 40
In 1973, the draft ended and the U.S. converted to
an All-Volunteer military.
Edwards turned 18 in 1971.
John Edwards COULD have served during Vietnam BUT didn't.
Instead he went to college from '70-'74
He enrolled at Clemson University
but dropped out in his first year,
after a football scholarship fell through
"...A proud product of public schools, John became the first person in his family to attend college.
He worked his way through North Carolina State University where he graduated with high honors in 1974,
and then earned a law degree with honors in 1977 from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. .."
"I will not have my commitment to defending this country questioned
by those who refused to serve when they had had a chance"
Kerry at a campaign stop in Ohio on 09/03/04
John Kerry's role model
Phony Vietnam vet Al Hubbard
head of the
Vietnam Veterans Against the War
The New Soldier BY John Kerry
FREE, read it on line right now!
Questions for Senator Kerry!
1) Are you going to dump Edwards as your VP
because he didn't serve when he could have?
2) How's Al Hubbard now-a-days?
Is he getting ready to hit your campaign trail?
3) Is it true Jane Fonda is coming out to?
I believe Rasmussen is polling scared since his 2000 disaster.
The leftwing 527s and the MSM have to really start cranking up now.
"Fairness" be d*mned. This is serious, John Kerry could LOSE, and in doing so, by any more than a razor-thin margin, could wreck the Democrat party for a generation.
Not really sure of their numbers, no, it is not an automated poll (as far as I know), and it is of LIKELY Voters.....
Just putting it out there.
You can bet CNN will touting this poll as the most accurate and the double digit "W" poll as flawed!
A little more about his 2000 disaster, pls. Rasmussen seems very tilted towards the Dems....a lot like ole Z.
Has the Bush bounce already ended? That's it -- four points for three days with a quick narrowing to two?
Labor Day weekend ... Republicans are out of town. Which reminds me ... what am I doing here?
The polls of next week will give a good idea of where we are. I am thinking they will show Bush ahead by 5 or 6 points.
It IS automated actually, and yes, it's supposedly likely voters.
What about Kerry's four deferments (one for each college year) and his attempt at a fifth deferment for studying in France? Which one of the Kennedy's or their henchmen pulled strings so Kerry could get into the Naval Reserves when his deferments had run out? Inquiring minds want to know.
Rasmussen's outfit at the time, Portrait of America, had Bush beating Gore, the day before the election, by 9 points... I believe he had it at 49% - 40%
It might have been without the cheating.
I guess we'll have to wait for Gallup to settle it.
We're all better off not assuming a bounce. That sort of euphoria losese elections.
Probably something between the 11-point lead and this is reality. But the media will use this one and so will Kerry.
"Who leads after Labor Day" is the standard for winning they say. So this is the crucial week!
I think the polls are flawed. That's doesn't mean that Time and Newsweek didn't stumble onto the truth in their 10-11% victories for Bush. I think it might even be 9%. Maybe more. But it seems that Kerry would hold a SOLID 35% of rabid, core anti-American voters, foreign nationals, and those voting from the graveyard. Solid 35. So I expect Kerry finishes in the low 40s. That leaves Bush, at best, in the mid-50s. But he should get the large majority of the electoral college. People can call it a mandate or not. They tried to give Clinton a 'mandate', and didn't get 50%.
It's not even a 2 point gap. It's 1.2%! Man, I hope Ras is an outlier...
I wonder what their refusal rate is....that rate of folks who hang up.
There's some outfit called USASurvey that claims to be more accurate than the industry average.
Polls taken during the Labor Weekend are not accurate. A lot of people are away from home. Thus, they won't be there to talk to pollsters.
His final polls had Bush up by around 10 in 2000.
He's clearly scared to death to open up a huge lead for either Candidate.. I figured Kerry to be up about 6 after his Convention and Rasmussen was scared to give him anything more than 3 or 4.
I figure Bush was up atleast 8 after this one, and he's scared to give him more than 4.
Has anyone ever been polled by Rasmussen? I am extremely suspicious of this guy.. He claims he's calling 10s of thousands of people every month, and nobody has any info on this?
I have real questions on where he gets the funding to do this kind of polling. Calling 1000 people a day for 3 months straight is a very expensive endeavour. Not even mentioning the cost of the phone calls, but the cost of employees to conduct all of these calls.
Personally I think Rasmussen is a fraud, but other than gut feeling and circumstantial stuff, I have no hard evidence to back it up.
This adds some support to the contention that Time and Newsweek are pulling a rope-a-dope trick with their eleven-point-lead polls. They intend to call Kerry the reincarnation of the Comeback Kid when their next polls are more realistic. Remember, Evan Thomas of Newsweek said the media bias in favor of Kerry is worth 15 points. Rope-A-Dope is just part of the way the media intends to make sure Thomas is correct. Do not fall for the Newsweek/Time stories.
I think the "tracking" part of it does not square with the internals, which he reports on weekly. THere, Bush is ahead by a consistent 10 points, but the tracking showed SKerry ahead....so I wonder about his data reduction.
Still, he is one of the few who does a daily heartbeat that gets publically published, so who really knows.
The refusal rate, exactly.
He claims he's getting 1000 answers a day,.. On statistical averages of hangups and no answers his staff must be placing about 3000+ calls a day.
And who is funding this?
SurveyUSA makes their money by having local TV stations sponsor them
Zogby has MSNBC sponsoring.
Gallup has CNN funding.
Who is funding is Rasmussen?! His premium memberships he's selling? HAH! Yea, I'm sure those are paying for a staff that makes 3000+ phone calls a day /sarcasm off.
This man and his polls are nothing but a complete fraud in my honest opinion.
Rasmussen SEVERELY underestimated the number of cigarettes and liquor miniatures that would be handed out by Democrats on Election Day in 2000.
Exactly. He didn't factor in the vote fraud in 2000. W needs to have a 10 point poll lead at least.
|Updated Daily by Noon Eastern
Ras's Premium Membership is a recent thing, and VERY expensive (like I'd ever fund this pack of snoops)
I totally agree with the "let's assume NO bounce" school of thought. Yes, the Big Mo is shifting, but NEVER assume it's in the bag....after all, Douchle may find a lost Indian tribe in your state and have them all vote for Kedwards
>>I don't understand their numbers, they sure don't change much even as all the rest change drastically.
Unless Time & Newsweek were purposely inflated numbers?
Actually, I think it's the way they do the interactive polls - same people so perhaps their minds are made up
Rasmussen weights his samples using a 39% Dem 35% Rep 26% Ind breakdown. He believes that this will be the composition of the actual voter population on November 2 of this year. A large Harris party ID survey (6000 respondents) earlier this year found a simliar partisan breakdown among voters.
Newsweek, LA Times, and others that show wild fluctuations from poll to poll do not weight their samples by party ID at all. Generally speaking, the large spikes and dips in these polls can be attributed to their samples being skewed in favor of one party in one poll, and the other party in the next. In fact, if you apply a more realstic party weighting to yesterday's Newsweek poll, you will get results similar to Rasmussen.
Rasmussen attributes his embarrassing showing in 2000 to his failure to weight his samples by party. He claims that had he done so, his poll would have shown Gore leading by 1, instead of Bush leading by 8 or 9 in his final 2000 poll.
Rasmussen's tracking poll doesn't cost much. It's all automated. The computer randomly generates phone numbers, dials and asks the questions. Can't cost much to do that.
I was called about two months ago and answered something like 20 questions by punching a number on the phone.
One potential weakness: The computer has no idea of who is answering the phone. Could be teenagers, illegal aliens, just plain liars, etc..
It is an automated poll.
He was off badly in 2000 (Portrait of America poll...had Bush up 8 points the day of the election) BUT in the 2002 mid terms he was VERY accurate in all the races...
I think he is being very cautious.
They were the most accurate in 1996 I beleive, and missed it the most in 2000.
Hey Tonk .. when did the draft start?? .. not the lottery, just the draft?
Bush JA at 52%. This is the lowest in three days (he was 54% yesterday) and seems to suggest merely a bad polling day for Bush. But either way, as I've been maintaining for some time, with RAS you have to look at the JA rating as an indicator of where Bush really is, and he's very strong. A 52% translates into more than 320EVs. If he gets to 55%, we're looking at 350 EVs.
Rasmussen still has Bush's job approval at 53%. It will be difficult for Bush not to get re-elected if he maintains that level.
I bet the true poll number is in between this and Newsweek. A 12 point overnight swing is hard to beleive since I do not believe there are many swayables or undecided out there.
Polls right now mostly reflect the news cycle. Here is the most accurate poll I've seen.
In a 3 way race between President Bush, Senator Kerry and Hurricane Frances:
With a margin of error of 3%
Newsweek has it 54 to 43 Pres. Bush!
In 2000, Rasmussen had Bush substantially leading Gore on the night before the election. IIRC it was more than five points. During the weekend before the election, when all the other polls showed Gore closing fast in the wake of the DUI story, Rasmussen had Bush pulling away.
Anyway, it is strange that he is not picking up the huge movement to Bush that the other polls -- as well as both campaigns -- are picking up.
A 12 point overnight swing is hard to beleive since I do not believe there are many swayables or undecided out there.
Why not? Because the media told you there wasn't?
There was a large percentage of independants who voted for Bush in 2000, that were disenchanted with him so far this year. It's very very probably that he won them over last week.
I show the last three days worth of raw data to be 48-51-44 for Bush and 45-45-49 for Kerry. Bush's 51% number represents the first day of polling after his speech. His 44% number is from yesterday. Sooooo, if Rasmussen's polling data is correct, something must have happened between Friday and Saturday that significantly hurt Bush, and significantly helped Kerry. To my mind, nothing did. So let's look at another option. Looking at past data, Bush polls terribly on Sunday's in Rasmussen's raw data. This weekend he's polled terribly on Saturday. This is Labor day weekend, and I just heard on the radio more people are on the road this Labor day weekend than last year. To determine whether Labor Day polling is a factor, I think I will wait until Thursday's Rasmussen numbers to determine whether his poll shows a Bush bounce.
I don't think anyone conducts the calls; it's an automated telephone system.
Correct me if I'm wrong...but isn't Scott Rasmussen the founder of ESPN?
I also believe he is a Republican (calls himself and independent). Bill O'Reilly, Rush Limbaugh all tout Rasmussen as being a fair pollster (unlike the bias you get with Zogby who leans heavily and proudly Democrat).
Rasmussen may be playing a different game. With a 10 point Bush lead what is the likely direction it can go? Up? hardly...Down? You bet. So he is keeping it modest and any movement will be seen as upward movement and not downward movement.
Who's to say pollsters don't already have their desired polling numbers for each week of the election...Imagine if Rasmussen planned to release numbers like this
Week 1 Sept Bush up 2
Week 2 Sept Bush up 2
Week 3 Sept Bush up 3
Week 3 Sept Bush up 3
Week 1 Oct Bush up 3
Week 2 Oct Bush up 4
Week 3 Oct Bush up 5
Week 4 Oct Bush up 6
You get bandwagon voteres to vote for your guy all the while not falling out of the other polling outfits numbers in a drastic way.
Background of Selective Service
(Source: Selective Service System - June 25, 2001 revision)
For more than 50 years, Selective Service and the registration requirement for America's young men have served as a backup system to provide manpower to the U.S. Armed Forces.
President Franklin Roosevelt signed the Selective Training and Service Act of 1940 which created the country's first peacetime draft and formally established the Selective Service System as an independent Federal agency.
From 1948 until 1973, during both peacetime and periods of conflict, men were drafted to fill vacancies in the armed forces which could not be filled through voluntary means.
In 1973, the draft ended and the U.S. converted to an All-Volunteer military.
The registration requirement was suspended in April 1975. It was resumed again in 1980 by President Carter in response to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Registration continues today as a hedge against underestimating the number of servicemen needed in a future crisis.
The obligation of a man to register is imposed by the Military Selective Service Act. The Act establishes and governs the operations of the Selective Service System.
(Source: Selective Service System - June 25, 2001 revision)
I've spoken with a guy who is a polling director of a pretty big polling firm.
He said they are not starting any post-convention polling until Tuesday.
I feel they may be on the correct path here.
Yes.. It makes perfect sense with my theory that he is manipulating the numbers.