I show the last three days worth of raw data to be 48-51-44 for Bush and 45-45-49 for Kerry. Bush's 51% number represents the first day of polling after his speech. His 44% number is from yesterday. Sooooo, if Rasmussen's polling data is correct, something must have happened between Friday and Saturday that significantly hurt Bush, and significantly helped Kerry. To my mind, nothing did. So let's look at another option. Looking at past data, Bush polls terribly on Sunday's in Rasmussen's raw data. This weekend he's polled terribly on Saturday. This is Labor day weekend, and I just heard on the radio more people are on the road this Labor day weekend than last year. To determine whether Labor Day polling is a factor, I think I will wait until Thursday's Rasmussen numbers to determine whether his poll shows a Bush bounce.
Rokke..
I've spoken with a guy who is a polling director of a pretty big polling firm.
He said they are not starting any post-convention polling until Tuesday.
I feel they may be on the correct path here.
I doubt that Florida is part of the polling given what is going on there this weekend.
And if people from Florida were polled the nasty weather(Bush's fault /sarcasm) would bias the results in favor of kerry.