Posted on 09/07/2004 8:30:58 PM PDT by Axion
Summary
Reports of negotiations between Iran and the United Nations' nuclear watchdog body on suspending the country's uranium-enrichment activities surfaced Sept. 7. This indicates that the Iran is backing off from its earlier belligerent stand, following the realization that it no longer has leverage in Iraq. By standing down on this issue, Iran's clerical regime is setting itself up for a domestic political spasm.
Analysis
Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi spoke with his Spanish counterpart Sept. 7 and expressed hope that the board of directors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) -- of which Spain currently holds the presidency -- would render a judgment based on reality regarding Iran's controversial nuclear program. Earlier in the day, Reuters reported that Iran had agreed in principle to freezing some aspects of its uranium-enrichment process. While negotiations continued, two unnamed Western diplomats told the news agency that the agreement would include cessation of assembly, testing and production of centrifuges.
By expressing its willingness to halt some parts of its nuclear program, Iran essentially has backed off from its earlier confrontational posture. The Iranian leadership has realized it has no other cards left to play to gain influence in Iraq and can not maintain its protective attitude toward its nuclear program. While Tehran might have avoided an international crisis as a result of this move, it is likely a domestic crisis might be in the making.
Iranian reformists might not be in a position to challenge Tehran's clerical regime; however, many influential younger-generation elements among the country's conservative bastion will be looking at the old guard's failure to achieve the objectives of a 10-year foreign policy based on securing the Islamic republic by establishing a Shiite-dominated Iraq. The Iranians' scaling back with as much of their nuclear program -- and with as much residual influence in Iraq -- as they can salvage shows that for all practical purposes, Tehran has given up the hope achieving that goal.
Iranian Defense Minister Rear Admiral Ali Shamkhani -- while announcing that Iran would conduct a second test of its Shahab-3 medium-range ballistic missile -- remarked, "Being powerful does not necessarily means war-mongering, neither do the roads of peace lead to concession." This comment was meant to placate the regime's younger generation leaders and convince them that their seniors have not yet failed them.
Following the fall of Saddam Hussein's regime in April 2003, Iran was optimistic that its efforts involving three Iraqi proxies -- Ahmed Chalabi, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani and Muqtada al-Sadr -- and a priori back-channel arrangements with the United States would result in establishing a Shiite-dominated Iraq. However, since the first al-Sadr uprising in April 2004 -- which coincided with Fallujah-based Sunni insurgency's peak -- Iran has witnessed the loss of all three proxies and the United States' backing off its commitment to facilitate a Shiite-dominated Iraq in return for the Shia not opposing the U.S. invasion and occupation of Iraq.
Chalabi fell from grace after revelations that he was working with Iranian intelligence roughly coincided with al-Sistani's decision to desert the Iranians. This was confirmed when the second al-Sadr uprising in August failed to bring al-Sistani back into the Iranian orbit. On the contrary, Iran saw its last card -- al-Sadr -- also being co-opted into the Iraqi political process.
Through some skillful maneuvering, Washington was able to shake off its dependency on Iranian and Iraqi Shia to stabilize Baghdad; the United States kept Iraq from Shiite hands through the installation of the Interim Iraqi Government and the Fallujah deal. The United States then began daily air intrusions into Iranian territory -- pressuring Tehran into a corner where its leaders had to reassess their strategy. Then, the United States allowed Iranian intelligence to catch wind of development cells in the Pentagon working on plans for a massive aerial bombardment of Iranian nuclear facilities and other vital infrastructure.
At first the Iranians thought Washington was bluffing, which would explain Tehran's delay in indicating its willingness to negotiate. The Iranians then had a rude awakening when they realized the Bush administration meant business and would not hesitate to bomb Iran.
Iran, through its back-channel network with Washington, signaled that it was willing to negotiate -- hence Bush's statement that his administration would pursue a diplomatic route with Iran on its nuclear program. The United States likely manipulated Iran into using diplomatic channels because Washington needs something from Tehran and did not want to continue with its threatening posture.
Regardless of U.S. needs, Bush was in a position to make a public statement. Iran's leaders, on the other hand, already fear an internal political spasm -- an uprising among younger conservative leaders who feel their elders have failed -- so they made indirect statements regarding the negotiations.
Having backed off for the time being, Iran will now try to gain the upper hand by manipulating U.S. needs. Washington, fully aware of Iran's "one step forward and two steps back" approach, has signaled the ayatollahs that it is watching the negotiations. Unnamed senior U.S. officials told Reuters on Sept. 7 that Washington remains skeptical of the Iranian-IAEA deal.
For now, Iran is in a corner internationally and will likely begin to feel the pressure from within as well, where a crisis of confidence in the old guard is likely brewing. It remains to be seen how the ayatollahs -- who have proven resilient thus far -- will contain this new threat.
Copyrights 2004 - Strategic Forecasting, Inc. All rights reserved.
In other words, the mullahs just read the Newsweek poll and are soiling their diapers over the inevitable re-election of "W".
fyi
Two good articles by stratfor on the same day.
Isn't this one of the signs of the end of the world?
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