Posted on 09/08/2004 9:06:23 AM PDT by bd476
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HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST WED SEP 08 2004
...Dangerous Hurricane Ivan heading for the central Caribbean Sea...
A hurricane warning remains in effect for Aruba...Bonaire...and Curacao.
A hurricane watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect for The Guarjira Peninsula of Columbia...and for the entire Northern Coast of Venezuela.
At 11 AM AST...1500z...the Government of Haiti has issued a Hurricane Watch for the entire Southwest peninsula of Haiti from the border of the Dominican Republic Westward...including Port Au Prince.
A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for the Southwestern coast of the Dominican Republic from Santo Domingo Westward to Pedernales.
Interests in Central and Western Caribbean Sea should closely monitor the progress of dangerous Hurricane Ivan.
At 11 AM AST...1500z...the eye of Hurricane Ivan was located near Latitude 12.7 North...Longitude 66.2 West or about 145 miles...235 Km...East-Northeast of Bonaire and about 795 miles...1280 km... EAST-Southeast of Kingston Jamaica.
Ivan is moving toward the West-Northwest near 16 mph...26 km/hr. This motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours. On this track...the center of Ivan should move North of Aruba... Bonaire...and Curacao later today. However...any deviation to the left of the forecast track could bring the center close to those islands.
Ivan is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale with maximum sustained winds near 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next 2 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 KM… from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles...260 KM.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 955 MB...28.20 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels... along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near the center of ivan in the hurricane warning area.
Rainfall Amounts of 5 to 7 inches...possibly causing flash floods and mud slides...can be expected along the path of Ivan.
Repeating the 11 AM AST position...12.7 N... 66.2 W. Movement toward...West-Northwest near 16 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140 MPH. Minimum central pressure... 955 MB.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor Products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 pm AST followed by the next complete advisory at 5 pm AST.
Forecaster Avila
$$
Hurricane Ivan New Thread Wednesday 8 September 2004 Ping: with continuing updates and discussion.
Thank you for this thread!
My Demented Sis is in Tampa. She's managed to keep power and DSL up through the entire Charlie/Frances ordeal. She reports that the services and responders there are at their limit. But worse, is the food situation. All the stores are now emptied of perishables; they all spoiled and are trash.
BOLO ALERT: Crazy Ivan!!!
The current path points it toward the Panhandle or, at least, way too close.
Useless trivia: Panama City has experienced a hurricane (either direct hit or close enough for heavy damage) every ten years. We had Eloise in 1975, Elena and Kate in 1985 and Erin and Opal in 1995.
Hate to see a year that ends with a "5" coming up.
WHICH WAY?!?!?!?!?
WHICH WAY IS HE TURNING DAMMIT?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?
My folks are taking a short vacation away from Central Florida to come to Illinois for a week - leaving from Orlando tomorrow AM. I'm glad - the weather here has been beautiful all summer. But I'll keep an eye on these threads - thanks for starting today's FR watch on Ivan.
My folks are taking a short vacation away from Central Florida to come to Illinois for a week - leaving from Orlando tomorrow AM. I'm glad - the weather here has been beautiful all summer. But I'll keep an eye on these threads - thanks for starting today's FR watch on Ivan.
Good Grief...........is anyone else tired of hurricane season? (and I don't even live in Florida)
See #8, please.
If it follows that track, the Tampa area could get a tremendous storm surge even if it avoids a direct hit.
Relax; it's only 56 more days.......LOL.
Yucatan. That's where I'd place my money.
Maybe Florida can make like a hole in the water?
LOL!!!!!!!!!! You nearly got me on that one!
In the last few hours it's turned slightly more N of W....
Now if the Northern Coast of Venezuela and Columbia would just slow Ivan down and take away some of the pressure, that would be great.
Real shame there isn't an open season on gator... Fries up real well and tastes a lot like chicken.
This storm is so far south that it might miss the USA completely.
Guess No one else has Mind Melded that passage from Hunt for Red October...lol
Seaman Jones : Conn, sonar! Crazy Ivan!
Capt. Bart Mancuso : All stop! Quick quiet!
[the ships engines are shut down completely]
Beaumont : What's goin' on?
Seaman Jones : Russian captains sometime turn suddenly to see if anyone's behind them. We call it "Crazy Ivan." The only thing you can do is go dead. Shut everything down and make like a hole in the water.
Beaumont : So what's the catch?
Seaman Jones : The catch is, a boat this big doesn't exactly stop on a dime... and if we're too close, we'll drift right into the back of him.
It's great to hear that your sister got through relatively unscathed, but it is not good news hearing about the food situation. Sounds like she's living in a City right on the edge with not a lot of give room there.
I have seen that movie so many times I can practically act it out.
I'm still cleaning debris from Frances & now have to watch for Ivan. I'm on the west coast north of St. Pete's in Citrus Co. Looks like Ivan is heading for this side of the state again if it makes another right turn. Jeez, I would rather have a blizzard in Mich then 3 Hurricanes.
The models are in pretty close agreement until Ivan gets to Jamaica. After that nobody knows. If it crosses Cuba on the eastern side of the island it will impact the storm more than if it crosses the flatter western end of the island.
ROFL!!!!!!!!!
You ain't kiddin. And, if gas doesn't get replenished around the state soon it's gonna be real hard for people to evacuate if this one bears down on us.
We need some prayers, folks.
Howlin came up with the idea for a fresh new thread. Thanks Howlin!
Over here now.
The power's coming back on, and the utilities are beginning to come back online. Another problem is damage to peoples' homes. Houses that got smashed by Charley, weren't repaired in time for Frances. And with Ivan possibly inbound, the potential for total loss with many buildings is real.
Which models were the most accurate in predicting Frances' path?
Not that it brings any comfort but it is a little better than thinking of these many major hurricanes continuing yearly as a trend for the future.
From http://stormcarib.com/reports/2004/grenada.shtml
"Hi,
I have been in cellular contact with close friends in Grenada since last
night and they have said that the destruction is tantamount to Hiroshima.
There is not a tree standing. My friend witnessed homes being submerged and
thousands of trees and galvanize roofs flying through the air. The island is
devastated and I am not sure if everyone is aware of the severity due to
networks, electricity and phone lines being out of service. Grenada needs
relief workers and Aid as soon as possible.
Gabrielle"
It's much much worse than the major media articles indicated, due to lack of communication.
Wrong! It's more like 83 days.
Hurricane season ends at midnight November 30th, and we've had them here in Panama City as late as 3 days before Thanksgiving (1985 Kate).
CONN, SONAR, CRAZY IVAN!
All stop, quick quiet.
Hmmmmmm.... that's what they all say! Doesn't EVerything taste like chicken if you deepfry it? ;-)
One of my Top Ten Favorite Books and one of my Top Ten Favorite Movies. Sean Connery is one of my Top 10 Favorite Actors.
Crazy Ivan - turning leftrightrightleft
BMP
Oh, gosh.....I thought it was the first of November!
YIKES.
What's our average now, once every two or three weeks?
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