Posted on 09/08/2004 7:09:13 PM PDT by ambrose
"Bush's lead remains within the survey's error margin at Labor Day, the traditional start of the campaign's homestretch.
By historical standards, the race is too close to call. But the New York convention altered the political landscape and attitudes toward the candidates in ways helpful to Republicans. Views of whether Bush has the personality and leadership qualities to be president improved by 6 points; those of Kerry declined by 14 points.
And the importance of terrorism — the issue on which Bush has his biggest advantage — surged. Voters now say terrorism is as important as the economy in determining their vote. Bush is preferred by 27 points over Kerry in handling terrorism, up from a 10-point edge last month.
Bush strategist Matthew Dowd says Bush is further ahead than the campaign expected. With the conventions over, he says Kerry "has lost any ability to have any one-way conversation" with voters.
Mark Mellman, Kerry's pollster, says there is "no doubt" that "ugly and inaccurate speeches" at the Republican convention had an effect. "Equally, there's no doubt they'll fade pretty quickly," he says. (hasn't happened yet )
The lessons of presidential races since World War II indicate that either candidate could prevail in November. Since World War II, three contests have been within the margin of error among registered voters at Labor Day. In those races, the leading candidate won in 1980; the trailing candidate won in 1960 and 2000.
Bush received a modest bounce from his party's convention, but Kerry's standing sagged in the USA TODAY poll after the Democratic convention in July.
The poll finds the president driving both sides of the ballot: Eight of 10 of his supporters say they will vote for Bush rather than against Kerry. But half of Kerry's supporters say they are voting against Bush."
Naah. I just checked and they're feeling fine. They found an AOL online poll that shows Kerry leading on the "who do you trust on the war in Iraq?" question. All the other polls are a bunch of lies put out by Bush's lapdogs in the MSM.
Nice feeling to have severed the AOL apronstrings.
Of course you still have me for three more weeks. ;-)
How comforting that is, writer. Shall I kill the fatted calf over this one? =)
Some states are toss ups. Duh.
Don't you dare kill that calf...You...You...You heartless, uncaring, animal abusing conservative. :) Hehe!
But.... but..... my dog is hungry! LOL
Then list your tossups, pilgrim. And how you got your posted EV totals.
You're a heartless b....b....b.... I can't even say the word. I hope you can just live with yourself when you wake up every morning! :) Hehe!
Yes exactly. They're still drinking the kerry koolaid over at DUh. They sure are in for a rude awakening.
The timing of this post is suspicious. . .
Indeed.
Still trying to spread doom&gloom? You're going to be so miserable on November 3! LOL
I'm stating that the election in the EC is now Bush. Are you from the DU?
No...are YOU a dual poster? ;^)
Do you have a link or other evidence to support your claim that there were districts in PA with 100% turnout, with 100% of votes going to the Democrat candidate? (I'm assuming he/she is not running unopposed)
I would be very interested in seeing this. With supporting evidence, this story could be more widely spread for sure.
I will do some searching. I just remember reading something in the newspaper immediately after the 2000 election claiming a 100 percent turnout at some Philly voting precincts, with all or nearly all the votes going for Gore.
Also by experience, I can attest to many unusual practices in some local precincts in Philly, where the voting booths on some blocks are set up in a basement of various local establishments.
No bother, I assumed you had some links or data at hand.
Certainly "peculiarities" in many mega-cities are not rare, but if we had facts in hand which revealed obvious fraud then some of the 'mainstream' might listen if repeated often enough in the blogosphere and talk radio.
Better to keep our eyes forward on 2004 anyway, we don't want to get those 2000 Gorewhiners rolling again.
What is little appreciated about Washington State is that the West side of the state is hopelessly liberal, AND that's where most of the polling is done.
East of the Cascade mountains is quite conservative and seldom polled.
I'll bet Bush could close the gap in the state by election day.
I understand and appreciate your argument but an additional 2 EVs for Kerry could potentially be the 2 EVs that could put him over 270. Let's hope that doesn't happen.
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