Skip to comments.Threat Matrix: Daily Terror Threat - Thread Nineteen
Posted on 09/11/2004 12:09:10 AM PDT by nwctwx
Musharraf could help arrest Osama: US congressman
NEW YORK: A US Congress member has said that Al Qaeda chief Osama Bin Laden was in Pakistan and President Pervez Musharraf would catch him.
Speaking at the inauguration of a new Bengali channel NTV on Monday, Congressman Gillman said that terrorism was being fought all over the world and no country was safe for the terrorists. He praised President Musharraf for his effort to eradicate terrorism and said, The president of Pakistan has a lot to offer. We thank him for his cooperation.
President Musharraf has been good and we need his help as well of all the other countries. We need all of the countries to work together to fight terrorism we need Pakistan, we need Bangladesh, we need India, we need all, Mr Gillman said. online
Thanks for the info Cindy.
I don't believe it. you'd have more local police protecting US mosques, then protecting public schools, should anything like that happen. many NYers saw exactly that after 9-11.
best advice - keep your children home from school the latter part of the last week of October and on 11/1 & 11/2.
I omitted a line I was considering including: "and the authorities will NOT be our friends and it will take courage to do what is required."
Why is that frame significant...I just might.
that's the one.
N Koreas computer hackers target South and US
By Anna Fifield in Seoul
Published: October 4 2004 11:30 | Last updated: October 4 2004 11:30
North Korea has trained as many as 600 computer hackers to be capable of launching a cyber-war on South Korea, the US or Japan, South Koreas defence ministry said on Monday.
Coming amid intelligence reports that Pyongyang might be preparing to test a ballistic missile, the report will exacerbate jitters over the extent of the communist states destructive ability.
North Koreas intelligence warfare capability is estimated to have reached the level of advanced countries, the ministry said in a report to the National Assemblys national defence committee.
North Koreas military command has 500 to 600 hacking staff who have undertaken a five-year university programme, the report said. Their main task is to gather intelligence from - or launch a cyber attack on - the US, Japan and South Korea.
In a wave of attacks earlier this year, nearly 300 South Korean government computers at departments including the National Assembly and an atomic energy research institute were infected with viruses capable of stealing passwords and other sensitive information.
South Korea is particularly vulnerable to cyber-crime because it has the worlds highest usage of broadband services and relatively poor levels of internet security.
The South Korean intelligence traced the hackers to China, although it was unclear whether they were based in China or just using a Chinese network. (snipped)
You're welcome Oorang.
I hear that Charlotte, North Carolina is a lovely place.
There is nothing lovely of course about Mara Salvatrucha.
Charlotte, IMO, is a beautiful place. Fortunately I'll be elsewhere in N.C. But, I will be in a large enough city and there long enough that some "snooping around" might be on the agenda.
mega PING and welcome to the party
You are contributing - get Thune elected!
PING. Good find.
In this the first part of my own war gaming of Iranian responses to strikes against its nuclear program and presents an over-view of Iranian military history, assets, and capabilities. They are not exhaustive and in some cases been generalized in order to keep the size of the part down. The information presented are from open sources found on the internet and other reference books.
New reports recently indicated that the military has recently wargamed various scenarios involving conducting a preemptive strike against Iranian nuclear facilities to stop or delay their efforts to create a nuclear weapon. Those reports indicated that their war games resulted in an expanded conflict with Iran that could not be contained.
Since Iran could be the next target in the WOT, I wanted to give you an idea how IMHO Iran would/could respond and some of the wild card / variables that would have to be dealt with. The following scenario, with some modifications, could be seen if Israel conducts the preemptive strike OR if Iran conducts its OWN preemptive attack.
The historical background provides insight into potential actions by Iran and why. There are three key points that I think need to be examined.
1. Following the theocratic revolution of 1979, Iran wanted to be the defacto primary Islamic influence on not only the Persian Gulf but the larger world. The ability to make nuclear weapons would be the culmination of that strategic goal.
2. Religious ties to southern Iraq.
3. The Iran - Iraq war.
Irans efforts to influence world geopolitics started with the capture of our Embassy staff. It has since morphed into the active and covert support of terrorism throughout the world spreading the Iranian theocratic form of Shiite Islam. Its covert support of terrorism protected it from direct assault in the pre-9/11 world. Russia saw a natural ally against American influence in the middle east region and developed ties with Iran. But beyond opposing the Great Satan - America, the theocracy of Iran wants to destroy the nation of Israel and has vowed to do so at what ever cost. It is to this end that the development of nuclear weapons and long range ballistic missiles to carry have has become a priority. In the post 9/11 world, Iran has been squarely placed on notice that its support of world-wide terror has made it a target for American action. The world has generally said that Iran needs to stop the research and development immediately. This has increased the urgency of the Iranian effort to create the bomb.
The American liberation of Iraq has created an opportunity for Iran to try to thwart US plan for a democratic Iraq and in its place, to create a theocracy. A true democratic Iraq would threaten Iran who is already facing a growing pro-democracy movement that could topple the religious rulers. Iran has a ready made support base - the Shiite majority in southern Iraq. The most holy sites for Shiites are also in southern Iraq. Agents from Iraq have been identified and captured in fighting in Iraq and are believed to be scattered throughout the countrys south. Many believe Al-Sadr directives are coming from Iran. This permits agents and potential special forces to blend in with the local population and have a degree of support. These agent would provide exceptional and timely intelligence of current troop locations, command posts, and supply depots.
However, in the event of a preemptive strike, the potentially biggest concern would be the Iranian military. How the Iranian military would be used requires a review of its battles with Iraq, its previous encounters with the US military and watching first hand military operations in Iraq. In reviewing its war with Iraq during the 1980s two key items become apparent:
1. It recognized Iraqs limited seaport access.
2. It recognized the vulnerability of oil shipping in the Persian Gulf and the Straits of Hormuz
I expect that these two points will strongly influence Iranian military operations, tactical and strategic goals.
Iranian Military Capabilities
Although Iran has spent millions to upgrade its military forces, it is still not much better than when it fought with Iraq 20 years ago. Regular ground forces consist of approximately 4 armored, 6 mechanized and 2 special forces divisions and 14 independent brigade/groups. Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) consists of about 4 Armored, 16 mechanized divisions and 10-11 independent brigade/groups. IRGC divisions are smaller than the Regular divisions, sometimes equivalent to the strength of one brigade. IRGC units are the crack units, with the best trained, equipped and religiously motivated soldiers. These units became well known towards the end of the Iran-Iraq war for their human wave attacks.
There are approximately 1700 tanks of which only about 400 are a high quality T-72 series. The rest are a mixture of T-62, T-55 series, Chieftain and M-47/48/60 series. APC are a mixture of M-113, BTR50/60, MT-LB, BMP-1 and -2 for at total of about 1500. The artillery consists of about 3000 pieces including MRLs of a wide variety of self propelled and towed guns and howitzers. The army is also equipped with a mixture of soviet era anti aircraft artillery and surface to air missiles.
Iranian airpower is relatively limited and on the old side. Between 175 to 200 combat aircraft are believed to be available. Included are a limited number of F-14A and Mig-29 (94 total, 50 in service) and F-4, Mirage F1 and Su-24 and -25.
The Iranian navy is second only to the US navy as the dominant force in the Gulf. Iran has spent more money in its navy, second only to the strategic missile and nuclear developments. Its focus has been small, fast maneuverable vessels with anti-ship missile capabilities. Among recent acquisitions are Chinese Hudong fast patrol boats (Osa II design) and 25 light attack vessels from N. Korea. The missile boats are carrying newer Chinese C-802 anti ship missiles. The C-802 is a turbo jet powered missile and will eventually replace the older Silkworm missiles. Also included are torpedo boats, semi-submersibles and three Kilo class submarines. The Kilo class subs are armed with wake-seeking torpedoes. Iran has also developed a considerable capability in mine warfare particularly with the acquisition from China of the rocket delivered EM-52 rising mine that can be deployed in waters too deep for other types of mines.
Iranian core strategic assets consist of SCUD-C and Chinese CSS-8 ballistic missiles. With the assistance of N. Korea, Iran has accelerated its internal ballistic missile program with the development of the Shehab-2 (Scud-D variant) and Shehab-3 missiles. While the other missiles give the Iranians the capability to strike any country in the Gulf, the development of the Shehab-3 missile is a significant development for the Iranians. This is the first asset that the Iranians have that can strike any where in Israel and they allege that it can even strike England.
Warheads for these missiles consist of conventional high explosives as well as chemical (nerve and blister) and potentially biological. However, the Shehab-3 is probably designed to be nuclear - tipped. Iran reports that the Shehab-3 is operational and if so, is probably equipped with either a HE or potentially chemical/biological warhead pending development of a nuclear warhead.
Part 1 Observations and Conclusions
Iran has a military that has not been degraded after 12 years of airstrikes and Desert Storm. However, it is still a force that cannot be dismissed too easily as it has the capabilities to inflict severe damage and as will become apparent in follow-on parts, can really mess things up for the US in Iraq for a while. However, in the long term, absent nuclear capability, the country would not be able to sustain a long-term campaign against the US.
Internal challenges to the ruling religious leaders consist of the growing democracy movement. The theocracy must maintain enough loyal forces to contain any protests while supporting any combat actions against the US.
In the next part of this series, I will evaluate the potential theater of conflict, potential Iranian military and political goals of the attack. And in the final part I hope to outline the development of the potential conflict in a relatively chronological order to whatever the end may be.
POSTED: 12:28 pm PDT October 4, 2004
DEMING, Wash. -- The FBI would like to see who checked out a Deming library book about Osama bin Laden.
That's because of what someone wrote in the margin of the book.
The book is "Bin Laden: The Man Who Declared War on America."
The handwritten note in the margin is a quote from bin Laden saying, "Hostility toward America is a religious duty and we hope to be rewarded by god."
A citizen reported it to the FBI which served the rural library district with a subpoena demanding names and addresses of everyone who checked out the book.
But the lawyer for the library, Deborah Garrett, filed a motion to quash the subpoena.
The U.S. attorney's office withdrew the subpoena before a hearing, but it could be filed again.
Thanks for the post Cindy.
Glad to help out any way I can.
He needs to be caught now.
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