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Threat Matrix: Daily Terror Threat - Thread Nineteen
World Tribune ^

Posted on 09/11/2004 12:09:10 AM PDT by nwctwx


September 11, 2001
-Never Forget, Never Surrender-
Threat Matrix: Daily Terror Threat
Thread Nineteen : 9/11/04
Click to Search

The Threat Matrix

The title refers to a daily report given to the president of the United States detailing the most serious terrorist threats against the country. To tackle those threats, the government has formed a top-notch task force to infiltrate the terror cells and cut off the danger.

"Every morning, the president receives a list of the top ten terrorist threats - this list is known as the threat matrix."

We here at FR are trying to be in conjunction with the daily reports around the world that involve threats. We try to provide a storehouse of information that takes hours of research.

You be the Judge and Get Informed!

Image Created by : TheCabal & JustPiper's Son

"I will never cower before any master nor bend to any threat."


Muslim group takes responsibility for 9-11: 'We are so sorry'
 

This September 11 marks the third unforgettable anniversary of the worst mass murder in American history.

After September 11, many in the Muslim world chose denial and hallucination rather than face up to the sad fact that Muslims perpetrated the 9-11 terrorist acts and that we have an enormous problem with extremism and support for terrorism. Many Muslims, including religious leaders, and "intellectuals" blamed 9-11 on a Jewish conspiracy and went as far as fabricating a tale that 4000 Jews did not show up for work in the World Trade Center on 9-11. Yet others blamed 9-11 on an American right wing conspiracy or the U.S. Government which allegedly wanted an excuse to invade Iraq and "steal" Iraqi oil.

 


TOPICS: News/Current Events; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: 911; september112001; terror; thirdanniversary; threat; threatmatrix
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To: Velveeta

"Oh Allah conceal on the militants going to the coming hitting"

This sounds ominous, Velveeta.


3,701 posted on 10/09/2004 11:34:44 AM PDT by jerseygirl
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To: WestCoastGal

"The only one left for the U.S. is the hit prior to the election."

10/12 or 10/13?


3,702 posted on 10/09/2004 11:35:54 AM PDT by jerseygirl
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To: MamaDearest

"the eclipse will take place Thursday, Oct. 14.

To the east of the Date Line, however, the calendar date is Oct. 13"

possible dot?


3,703 posted on 10/09/2004 11:37:44 AM PDT by jerseygirl
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To: Velveeta

I would not be the least surprised. I do NOT trust the Russians. They assisted Saddam in slipping his WMD out of Iraq. They want to dominate the oil regions that we also covet.


3,704 posted on 10/09/2004 11:39:42 AM PDT by jerseygirl
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To: Donna Lee Nardo

Jakel images- I can think of a few, can't you?


3,705 posted on 10/09/2004 11:40:29 AM PDT by jerseygirl
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To: Cindy

On the second image, what do you think the small circles are? Phases of the moon? Some type of weapon?


3,706 posted on 10/09/2004 11:41:53 AM PDT by jerseygirl
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To: Velveeta

Oh, Canada!

Thanks Velveeta for that link.


3,707 posted on 10/09/2004 11:46:09 AM PDT by Cindy
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To: jerseygirl

Birth Control Pills, small bloody hands, smeared blood, and a bent sword, a gun, a bloody knife, and bloody animal footprints?
Weird, but I'm not an Arabic speaker so can't verify what the writing is or what the graphic means, if anything.

http://www.4-sms.com/f/04/10/102803533-1.jpg


3,708 posted on 10/09/2004 11:51:35 AM PDT by Cindy
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To: Honestly

This struck me- U.S. Canadian border....


3,709 posted on 10/09/2004 11:56:14 AM PDT by jerseygirl
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To: Honestly

Iran's cleric leaders are harboring Osama bin Laden, according to two Iranian intelligence officials cited in a new book.


Well, that's 2 strikes against Iran....


strike 3?


3,710 posted on 10/09/2004 11:58:26 AM PDT by jerseygirl
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To: ExSoldier

The response I've pondered is NOT pc.


3,711 posted on 10/09/2004 12:01:26 PM PDT by jerseygirl
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To: jerseygirl
That's okay, we're not exactly known around here for being pc! Let's hear it.
3,712 posted on 10/09/2004 12:03:57 PM PDT by ExSoldier (When the going gets tough, the tough go cyclic.)
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To: judicial meanz

Me? A warrior instinct? Thanks for the compliment!

H-ll hath no fury like a country scorned.


3,713 posted on 10/09/2004 12:04:11 PM PDT by jerseygirl
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To: All

An intriguing post from "The Final Phase" worth reading:


Here is the link to JR Nyquist's article "Is bin Laden a nuclear power?":

www.worldnetdaily.com/news/printer-friendly.asp?ARTICLE_ID=19747

Some quotes from the article:

"The most alarming thing about the bin Laden story is the way it helps the nuclear war strategy of the Kremlin. According to the highest ranking defector from the Russian General Staff, Colonel Stanislav Lunev, a surprise Russian nuclear strike would begin with the deployment of 7,000 Spetsnaz commandos to the United States...

"The purpose of initiating a general nuclear war with suitcase nuclear bombs involves the need for "diversion" and "disruption" of U.S. command and control. According to former CIA analyst Peter Vincent Pry, "Strategic surprise would be achieved if the ...(Russians) could deprive the United States of strategic warning of their intention to attack...

"The purpose of detonating nuclear suitcase bombs, and of unleashing biological and chemical weapons within the U.S., would be to simulate a terrorist campaign by non-Russian forces.

The United States, assuming it was under attack from ordinary terrorists, would not suspect the true purpose. Russian Spetsnaz would target U.S. command and control and early warning systems, as well as other targets that would create maximum confusion...

"If U.S. political and military leaders were killed or assassinated by Spetsnaz commandos, the result might be that nobody in authority would realize the strategic implications of the attacks on early warning systems. All that the Russian generals need to achieve surprise is 35 minutes of paralysis, blindness, and confusion. That is what the 7,000 Spetnaz commandos would be aiming at."

(snip)



White: "What do you see in the future?"

Mohamed:

"Muslims will strike the US very hard repeatedly where portable nuclear, chemical and biological weapons will be used in massive suicide attacks carried out by sleeper cells in the US.

Whether these attacks will begin before the presidential election depends on various factors. (snip) If the West is not dissuaded from implementing the Greater Middle-East Reform Initiative (GME) which would result in removing the existing Arab regimes, then America will be hit before the election, possibly in September and October..."

Of course, the attack will come from the Soviets, not the Islamic terrorists.

I believe the date to watch is Oct. 14-15, 2004 which is the first day of Ramadan.


3,714 posted on 10/09/2004 12:54:49 PM PDT by jerseygirl
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To: MamaDearest

Chuckle. You are not only bad but right also!


3,715 posted on 10/09/2004 12:57:07 PM PDT by Donna Lee Nardo
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To: jerseygirl
This struck me- U.S. Canadian border....

US and Canadian officials follow plane on border

Note the line saying we have retired military pilots that fly small planes near the border. That is reassuring news!

3,716 posted on 10/09/2004 1:08:18 PM PDT by MamaDearest
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To: MamaDearest

Recall that empty cargo container (that was returned several days later- in Canada)- that granny alluded to?

I have bad feelings about what may have come into our country from Canada. Lived in Toronto for awhile.....melting pot- numerous Muslims.

Actually- Philly was far worse (at least Center City)

Well- since I am only allowed one hour (ha-ha) on a library computer---guess I had better head out....

Stay safe everyone- and keep in mind the 12th and 13th!


3,717 posted on 10/09/2004 1:36:14 PM PDT by jerseygirl
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To: jerseygirl

I think at least one of our versions of a jakel image should show Mecca and Medina flying the American flag. And the terrorist thugs would believe that was our goal since usama brainwashed them all into thinking that we want to take over the world (and the world's oil).

But see, even when I put my mind to being mean to the jihadis, I cannot ever be as brutal as they are with my image ideas. Notice how the jakel image I proposed has no nuke threat, political assasinations or blood drippings! It would probably piss them off just the same, though.

Maybe the second jakel image could show a map of all the muslim or arab nations with the name ISRAEL on them! That would get them, too.


3,718 posted on 10/09/2004 1:56:45 PM PDT by Donna Lee Nardo
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To: Cindy
"...Abu Hamza al-Masri is heard urging Muslim women to breed children for the purpose of creating suicide bombers."

I never thought it was possible, but this represents a new low for the muslim terrorist thugs. And I thought the fact that they raise their existing children to be haters and homicide bombers was abhorrent. Silly me.

3,719 posted on 10/09/2004 2:53:41 PM PDT by Donna Lee Nardo
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To: ExSoldier

IIRC the 2nd div has 2 combat brigades in S. Korea w/ division support and the other combat brigade is at Ft. Lewis. Everything I've heard is that we're going to be pulling out the combat troops and not just the CSS folks.


3,720 posted on 10/09/2004 4:12:54 PM PDT by Godzilla (I Freep, therefore I am)
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To: All

Incase everyone hasn't noticed. The elections in Afganistan went off terror attack free. So did the elections is Australia. Some one needs to check the jhadi boards to see what their response is considering the impotence of AQ to stop either action.


3,721 posted on 10/09/2004 4:26:07 PM PDT by Godzilla (I Freep, therefore I am)
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To: ExSoldier
IPN: Oak Creek, Wisconsin - "power line tower is down". power is out to Mitchell International airport, 17K customers and four cities. no other updates at this time. Current weather is 64 and fair. No other info at this time.
3,722 posted on 10/09/2004 4:36:50 PM PDT by 4thygipper
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To: Donna Lee Nardo

Egypt hotel bombers 'aided by woman suicide backpacker'
By Inigo Gilmore and David Harrison in Taba
(Filed: 10/10/2004)

A female suicide bomber is believed to have taken part in the terrorist attack on the Red Sea hotel in which at least 31 people died, Israeli and Egyptian military officials said last night.

The woman, whose decapitated body was found at the back of the hotel, is thought to have been acting with two other suspected terrorists who rammed explosive-laden cars into the front of the Hilton hotel in the Sinai resort of Taba on Thursday night.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2004/10/10/wegypt10.xml&sSheet=/news/2004/10/10/ixnewstop.html


3,723 posted on 10/09/2004 5:34:29 PM PDT by Selene
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To: Selene

Two Egyptian security officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, said investigators felt the attacks were conducted by eight to 10 men, some of whom were suicide bombers.

The officials said investigators were focusing on two possible scenarios, one involving foreign terrorists who slipped in from Jordan or Saudi Arabia on speed boats and another involving a sleeper cell in Egypt that was awakened for the attacks.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1240430/posts


3,724 posted on 10/09/2004 5:50:58 PM PDT by Selene
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To: 4thygipper

IPN: update electrical towers downed near Mitchell airport due to sabotage. Government command post set up.


3,725 posted on 10/09/2004 6:03:14 PM PDT by Right_Handed_Writer
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To: Donna Lee Nardo

They place no value on human life. Not even their own. They then use our PC to lament when we attack their militant strongholds saying how many lives we have taken....they can't have it both ways!


3,726 posted on 10/09/2004 6:39:21 PM PDT by MamaDearest
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To: Donna Lee Nardo
That I certainly agree with. We could have loads of fun making some jakel images. Real nice and annoying ones. LOL.

What's good for the goose...... Why not - it could only be a morale booster for us!

3,727 posted on 10/09/2004 6:43:17 PM PDT by MamaDearest
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To: Right_Handed_Writer; All
17,000 customers in Milwaukee County experience power outage

Associated Press


MILWAUKEE - About 17,000 We Energies customers, including the Mitchell International Airport, were affected by a power outage Saturday night.

The incident was reported to the Federal Bureau of Investigation, said Maripat Blankenheim, spokeswoman for the American Transmission Company.

She said the outage was triggered by a transmission tower's falling on another one, which took out some We Energies distribution lines.

Some bolts were missing at the towers, but the company refused to say if foul play is suspected.

"At this point, it could be as simple as the bolts were loose, it could be something worse," Blankenheim said.

But the FBI was contacted because of the incident was unusual, she said.

"It's a beautiful Saturday afternoon and the towers tipped over. It's not an act of God," she said.

The outage started at 5:40 p.m. and customers in parts of Cudahy, South Milwaukee, Oak Creek and Franklin areas were without power as of 7:30 p.m., said Wendy Parks, We Energies spokeswoman.

We Energies was trying to reroute power for affected customers Saturday night.

http://www.duluthsuperior.com/mld/duluthsuperior/news/politics/9880024.htm If missing bolts are the way to bring down a system, it would be difficult for a terrorist to bring down the US grid.
3,728 posted on 10/09/2004 6:43:28 PM PDT by tmp02 (Don't come to the US. We too are dipping our bullets in pig's blood)
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To: tmp02

correction - "it would be" should be "it wouldn't be"


3,729 posted on 10/09/2004 6:45:46 PM PDT by tmp02 (Don't come to the US. We too are dipping our bullets in pig's blood)
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To: ExSoldier

Betcha most parents don't even know how many entrances and exits are readily accessible in their schools and how easy it would be for anyone to take command by marching up to the office and sealiing exits. The only certain way to prevent it is to control initial access to the school and have some means of button that alerts law enforcement if security is breached. Question is, how secure do parents want their children to be in public schools and will they pay for whatever changes and charges need to be made to enforce it. All those parent-teacher meetings and programs at night with open doors are an invitation for those who do not belong there to get a birds'eye view of the building.


3,730 posted on 10/09/2004 6:56:32 PM PDT by MamaDearest
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To: Right_Handed_Writer
IPN: update electrical towers downed near Mitchell airport due to sabotage. Government command post set up.

I would say "it begins," but I think it began already and we need to hold on and be prepared for whatever the next few days and weeks have in store for us.

3,731 posted on 10/09/2004 7:10:18 PM PDT by MamaDearest
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To: Donna Lee Nardo

Actually, there are similar lows out there...his opinion wasn't all that unique in the jihad world. Very sad.


3,732 posted on 10/09/2004 7:17:11 PM PDT by Cindy
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To: MamaDearest

"We usually have two power feeds coming in," she said. "If one goes down, the other automatically takes over. We've never had a situation where both went down."

The airport was without power for nearly 21/2 hours, and the FBI was asked to investigate.

Maripat Blankenheim, spokeswoman for Waukesha-based American Transmission Company, said one the company's towers collapsed into a second tower. Both towers then fell into some distribution lines owned by We Energies. Live wires were discovered on the ground at about 5:40 p.m. at the tower site on S. 13th St. just south of E. College Ave., said We Energies spokeswoman Wendy Parks.

http://www.jsonline.com/news/metro/oct04/265487.asp


3,733 posted on 10/09/2004 7:36:25 PM PDT by tmp02 (Don't come to the US. We too are dipping our bullets in pig's blood)
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To: Godzilla
Makes sense. when I was at Fort Lewis in the 1980's, I was in the now decommissioned 9th Infantry Division. One of our support/reinforcement missions was Korea. After the 9th was disbanded, Ft Lewis was a SpecOps base, with 2nd Ranger Bn and 1st SF Group one one end of post and I Corps HQ on the other.
3,734 posted on 10/09/2004 7:41:45 PM PDT by ExSoldier (When the going gets tough, the tough go cyclic.)
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To: 4thygipper
Isn't there a Nuke power plant in that area? Any updates on this?
3,735 posted on 10/09/2004 7:49:49 PM PDT by ExSoldier (When the going gets tough, the tough go cyclic.)
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To: JohnathanRGalt; All

THE FOLLOWING ARTICLE IS AN EXACT QUOTE (MINUS THE GRAPHIC:
===
===


October 9, 2004

Jeremy Reynalds
P O Box 27693
Alb., NM 87125-7693
Tel: (505) 400-7145
www.joyjunction.org

 

Radical Islamic Cleric Abu Hamza Would Apparently Like PLO Chairman Arafat Dead


Abu Hamza (BBC picture)   

 

     In a recording discovered by a British freelance undercover investigator, jailed radical Islamic cleric Abu Hamza al- Masri is heard raging against the Palestinian Liberation Organization's Yasser Arafat and even apparently wishing for his death.

 

     He says (If) "this stupid Arafat going to give his blood to prostitution, I wish they committed him to a compressor to take all his blood and threw him like a  cockroach into the dustbin as his life and death is not worth anything."

 

     Glen Jenvey, the investigator who infiltrated Hamza's controversial Finsbury Park Mosque and his shadowy circle, and was able to obtain this and many other recordings, said on some of the other tapes that Hamza is again heard talking about Arafat and Arab sheikhs in a "threatening manner."

 

     Jenvey said, "Arafat is a world leader and the targeting of him by Muslims would mean the (Israelis) would get the blame and peace in the Mideast would ...  have no chance or hope. The only way forward is to beat groups like (this).

 

     "If Abu Hamza and the Egyptian wing of al-qaeda are targeting Arafat," Jenvey said, "the PLO have the right, as Arafat is their leader, to know about the threats ... People like Abu Hamza want to see fighting in the Mideast because of their own wish to control a major faith."

 

     The British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) reported that the United States alleges  Hamza acted as an intermediary with a terrorist group which took 16 tourists hostage in the Yemen six years ago.

 

     The U.S. also claims, the BBC reported, that Hamza provided support for terrorists, particularly al-Qaeda, and even attempted to establish a terror training camp in Oregon.

 

     While Hamza denies any involvement in terrorism, he has always justified the attacks in New York and Washington in September 2001, the BBC reported.

 

     Under current United Kingdom law, the BBC noted,  Britain must seek U.S. agreement that no death penalty will be sought before any extradition is approved.

 

     Jenvey had some advice for those concerned about this latest apparent threat from Hamza. "You should unite against terror and use the major faiths to teach men of war a lesson  ... it's important that Arafat is given the same intelligence to protect him as (the Israeli leaders) as he's the leader of the Palestinian people not bin Laden or people like (Hamza)."

 

     While this particular recording was not reported in British investigative journalist Neil Doyle's ( http://www.neildoyle.com )  new book "Terror Tracker," which documents his extensive efforts to infiltrate the inner workings of al-Qaida, many others recordings were.

 

     On one tape Hamza was heard urging Muslim women to breed children for the purpose of creating suicide bombers. The recordings were handed over to authorities who are reported to be building a case for the radical cleric's extradition to the United States, Doyle said, where he has been indicted on 11 terrorism charges.

 

     Hamza is being held at the high-security Belmarsh prison in east London pending a court hearing.

 

     Jenvey said additional information about this disturbing development may be obtained by logging onto www.neildoyle.com


3,736 posted on 10/09/2004 7:53:10 PM PDT by Cindy
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To: MamaDearest
The only certain way to prevent it is to control initial access to the school and have some means of button that alerts law enforcement if security is breached.

I can only use my school as a point of reference. We have a closed lunch which means that students are not allowed off campus during lunch. Largely we are fairly successful in efforts to keep them in, but it would be a lot more difficult to keep a determined and armed force out. especially if there was no prior warning. Then there is a large area of portable classrooms (my area) which sits along the perimeter of the athletic field. There are probably about 300-500 students and their teachers in these areas all day long. Each portable has at least two exits, but it would still be a hostage disaster.

Law Enforcement? After the debacle at Colombine, I seriously doubt that they will get the situation rectified in time. Trust me, I'd feel a LOT better if me and my best buddy (retired Airborne Ranger First Sergeant) had access (legally) to our firearms!

How secure do parents want their children to be in public schools and will they pay for whatever changes and charges need to be made to enforce it?

The Haitian parents of kids at my school can't afford to keep their kids properly fed and clothed!

3,737 posted on 10/09/2004 8:15:11 PM PDT by ExSoldier (When the going gets tough, the tough go cyclic.)
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To: ExSoldier
Makes sense. when I was at Fort Lewis in the 1980's, I was in the now decommissioned 9th Infantry Division.

You folks were always our rivals, being that I was in the 7th ID (L) (ooorah). Was also at Lewis for ROTC. Very pretty, but you can have the rain. Unfortunately both divisions had their colors cased. Heaven forgive me if I agree with sKerry on this one issue, we need a couple more Army Divisions on line again, we've drawn way too far down.

3,738 posted on 10/09/2004 8:25:37 PM PDT by Godzilla (I Freep, therefore I am)
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To: tmp02; Oorang; drymans wife; MamaDearest; nwctwx; Domestic Church; Rushmore Rocks; Labyrinthos; ...
Part 2, The Persian Gambit - Iranian Options

In this part I want to evaluate the potential military and political goals and the theater of operations of any Iranian military response to an attack on its nuclear weapons development infrastructure. This will provide a clue as to any perceived weakness that the US and its allies or Iraq may have that could be exploited to their advantage. Iran knows that any military response against the US or its allies could have potentially devastating effects upon its own regime. However, there is also an islamic fervor of invincibility as the true Islamic state with allah’s favor resting upon them.

Asymmetrical Warfare

However, before I go further, I’d like to cover an issue that has come out very recently concerning Iranian military doctrine - asymmetrical warfare. The completion of their recent wargames was suppose to be a demonstrations of these capabilities. So what is asymmetrical warfare? Asymmetrical warfare is in the simplest of terms “warfare that applies comparative advantages against an enemy’s weaknesses”. This is not a new or particular revolutionary concept. The U.S. military attempts to engage in asymmetrical warfare whenever we meet an enemy on the modern battlefield. The implicit premise is that asymmetric warfare deals with unknowns, with surprise in terms of ends, ways, and means. The more dissimilar the opponent, the more difficult it is to anticipate his actions. Any competent enemy will do the unexpected, if he believes it will work. This may provide a tactical or strategic advantage until it is countered. Therefore, Iran’s announcement that it has a doctrine of asymmetric warfare indicates that it is trying to develop a degree of sophistication in its military that it can counter anything that the US / allies or Israel may do to it. Part of the recent Iranian news release pointed to the military maneuvers and the integration of close air support, airlifting of heavy armor, use of new tanks, and missile capabilities. So much of this part’s discussion naturally looks at Iranian advantages in the theater and how they may exploit them.

Political Goals

The political goals of an attack by Iran will likely focus on the following:

1. Rally support from the rest of the arab world against the US and Israel. This would be particularly true if a first strike is conducted against Iran by either Israel or the US. It would be much harder to obtain world support if Iran launches its own preemptive attack.
2. Embarrass the US and its allies militarily under conditions that cause them high casualties and / or tactical stalemate.
3. Deter further escalation of combat against Iran through the deployment of its forces and the preparation of defensive positions against a ground assault.

Attacking Israel is one of the tried and true means of gathering support of the arab world as well as to some degree some European nations. Just as Saddam was quick on the trigger to launch against Israel during Desert Storm, Iran will be quick to do the same. Propaganda broadcast by arab networks like Al-Jazera will further their cause to sway world opinion. There would be a lot of calling to jihad to fight the Christian crusaders. Any success against the US or Israel would naturally enhance their prestige and position of leadership for the arab cause and their bargaining position.

If Iran is able to successfully accomplish its military goals and place allied forces at a disadvantage, though probably temporally, would work to sway opinions in the US and allied nations. Already Iran is well aware of the divisive nature of the current operations in Iraq due to the current election campaigns. If they could inflict a single ‘big time’ defeat, such as damaging or sinking an aircraft carrier, they could use that in an attempt to turn public opinion. If their special operations forces are successful in triggering wide spread disruptions of allied operations away from any point of attack, it would further show their ‘superiority’ against the Great Satan. The ultimate goal would be to leverage their successes so that they could negotiate from a position of power.

Once their initial objects were achieved, the Iranian military would prepare for any potential counter attack that may be mounted. They realize that although the US has substantial forces in Iraq, they would have difficulty organizing a major counter attack and would need to be reinforced from the US, a process that could take weeks or months to get ground forces to the theater. By this phase of their political plans self survival of the theocracy would be foremost, especially if their initial operations are less than successful.

Military Objectives - Ground

As presented in Part 1, Iran has adequate forces to conduct ground operations against the US and its allies. However, because of the risk involved, Iran will carefully apply their forces where they could best obtain their objectives. Should they choose to attack into Iraq, they have two general options. The first consists of an attack into northern Iraq where there are limited resources and a hostile Kurdish population. The second, more likely option is to attack into southern Iraq where they may find sympathic Shiites, the bulk of Iraq’s petrochemical facilities and the supply lines supporting the US and its allies.

Their main thrust would be relatively small section of Iraq between Basrah and the Persian Gulf and southward to control crossing points between Iraq and Kuwait. This strike would cut off the supply lines for the US and allied forces, creating a blockade. Iran is familiar with this territory as it was fought over during the 1980’s war with Iraq. This was very effective until the US became involved in securing the Gulf and protecting shipping, allowing Iraq once again to receive supplies and material. It would be to Iran’s advantage to maintain the blockade as long as possible since it would significantly impact the US and allied forces in a similar manner.

I would also expect a supporting attack further north towards Amarah would serve to threaten the flank of any allied counter attack by units coming south out of Baghdad.

Military Objectives - Special Operations

There are significant numbers of Iranian special operations forces operating in Iraq right now. Their objective would be to stir up trouble and tie down US and coalition forces through multiple guerrilla attacks upon strategic targets such as logistic and command centers. Wide spread attacks would force the allies to either allow the terrorists to take over for a short time while they organize a counter attack or try to suppress the uprising and wait on the counter attack. Either way, the special operations forces have achieved their objective. If the allies organize right away for an attack, rear area operations will become difficult again as logistic and any supply lines would be hit. Freezing the allied attack would give ground forces time to consolidate their positions so that any counter attack would require a substantial troop build-up to be successful while maintaining the peace throughout the rest of Iraq.

Military Objectives - Sea

The main objective of Iranian naval forces would be to deny the use of the Persian gulf to the US fleet or to make it very costly. This would include attacks against any carrier battle group stationed there as well as trying to close the straits of Hormuz to all shipping. The goal is to develop a blockade of Iraq by sea long enough for ground forces to achieve their objectives. It would be very dangerous for the US to underestimate the Iranian capabilities. Our capital ships are vulnerable to shore-launched missiles as was apparent during Desert Storm when one of our amphibious assault ships was struck shortly after the ground assault began. Iran’s smaller, fast attack missile boats could launch hit and run attacks and with the newer chinese missiles could inflict some serious damage. Iranian submarines could do one of two things. First would be to try to inflict a first strike against the carrier group. Success is problematical since if a first strike against Iran is carried out by the Israelis or US, they would be alert too the threat. A more likely scenario would be to deploy the subs to attack undefended oil tankers and supply ships along shipping lanes coming into the Persian Gulf. This would send oil prices sky rocketing and inflict terror in the region. Unless US naval assets keep close tabs on their movements, US naval assets would initially be hard pressed to find them while at the same time dealing with the hit and run tactics and shore missile attacks. Finally, the occupation of US naval forces will divert support from ground troops to the fleet for a period of time, helping Iranian ground forces achieve their objectives.

Military Objectives - Air

Although their weakest asset, the recent wargames have indicated that they have developed a degree of close air support capability that could be used to support the ground assault. The best of the airforce would likely be held close to Tehran to protect the government, however, they would have a period of time to act while US naval air assets are dealing with the Iranian navy hit and run attacks and USAF assets are providing ground support to suppress guerilla attacks. Some assets could also be diverted to the east for counter shipping operations.

Military Objectives - Strategic Assets

Coalition difficulties in finding Scud launchers during Desert Shield / Storm will be exploited by Iran for counter attacks in the theater. Baghdad “Green Zone” housing the coalition and Iraqi headquarters would be one of their first targets. Oil facilities in the north would also be vulnerable as they may want to keep the facilities in the south somewhat intact for their own potential use. The longer range Shehab-3 missiles will likely be launched mostly at Israel to garner support of the arab countries with some potentially being launched towards England, Italy, or other european country to develop dissention in Europe against the US/Israel in support of stopping any prolonged operation against Iran for fear that they may be struck again. Other conventional targets would be the oil facilities of any Gulf countries supporting the coalition, again to raise terror, gain world support for a negotiated settlement of the conflict or black mail them into denying more support to the US for any counter attack.

Absolute worse case scenario would be that they use chemical / biological warheads. This is assuming that they don’t have the nuclear warheads yet. This could be the wild card if Iranian objectives are not being adequately met. The most likely target would be Israel because if they respond with a nuclear strike there would be a great deal of pressure on Israel to justify the strike. Any ‘justification’ would be generally rejected by many arab nations as a “Zionist lie” and would be viewed with skepticism by many in Europe.

A chemical/biological strike against US / coalition forces could work to increase anti-war opinions among the allies due to casualties or could back lash into a severe and potential nuclear strike by the US. However, because of close Russian ties, a nuclear counter strike by the US would be very dangerous and could pull Russia in on the Iranian side. That of course could fuel anti-war sentiment in the US and allied countries and gain more support from arab countries. However, this would also result in a major escalation of hostilities and the direct attack of Iran by US and coalition forces.

Part 2 - Conclusions and Observations

As you can see from Part 2, the Iranians have the capability to conduct asymmetrical warfare against the US and allied countries by focusing their strengths against our weaknesses in the region and they have a chance to succeed in the goals I’ve listed. Iran would hope for quick success and the gaining of world opinion for a negotiated cessation of hostilities before the US and allies can effectively counter attack. Iran knows that once US military forces are marshalled, its days are numbered and could increase the chance that Iran could use more desperate measures. Israel will be attacked no matter what with a high possibility that chemical and biological weapons could be used. The US response would need to be carefully balanced and measured to prevent Russian intervention of behalf of Iran and to bring the conflict to a swift conclusion.

In Part 3, I will look at a couple of more detailed scenarios that I think could occur and their potential outcomes.

3,739 posted on 10/09/2004 8:33:15 PM PDT by Godzilla (I Freep, therefore I am)
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To: Godzilla
I was in the 7th ID

Oh yeah, the crushed beer can! I remember you guys. We used to go head to head with you at Fort Irwin and elsewhere. We were both light divisions...at least until the 9th became the High Tech Light Division. We got the very first Humvees and dune buggy's. Yup, soldiers at Fort Lewis never got a tan....they tended to rust instead. I was always cold, wet, tired, hungry and miserable.....

3,740 posted on 10/09/2004 8:49:27 PM PDT by ExSoldier (When the going gets tough, the tough go cyclic.)
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To: Godzilla

Thank you Godzilla.


3,741 posted on 10/09/2004 8:50:23 PM PDT by Cindy
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To: ExSoldier
Oh yeah, the crushed beer can! I remember you guys.

Yeh, when I got to Planet Ord, the 7th ID was at a military readiness level where it would deploy to war some time after the girl scouts. Once The Man President Reagan decided to go with the Light Infantry concept to deal with a potential Nicoraguan scenario things really changed fast. You at least had lots of vehicles to carry you. Our motto quickly became "Travel Light - Freeze at Night". LOL. But while I was the S-2 for the 3/17 infantry Bn, I knew I would come back from a war alive because we had some highly motivated, well trained soldiers.

3,742 posted on 10/09/2004 8:58:40 PM PDT by Godzilla (I Freep, therefore I am)
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To: JustPiper
Kerry says stopping all outsourcing would be pandering to protectionists

Indonesian police arrest WIFE of suspected terrorist mastermind

Interpol fortifies tactics against terrorism

Al-Azhar, Grand Imam, sends top preachers all over world to propagate Islamic teaching

Rep. Tom DeLay accused of fraud, money laundering and abuse of office

Vitamins may increase chances of cancerous growths

Snip: MITCHELL LIBRARY IN GLASGOW

THE world is going mad in its abuse of political correctness. Staff at the coffee shop in the Mitchell Library in Glasgow last week allegedly refused to serve a customer who had ordered a 'black coffee', claiming that it was a racist phrase - he would only get his cuppa if he used the terminology 'coffee without milk'. I wonder how he managed to ask for white sugar?

3,743 posted on 10/09/2004 9:55:23 PM PDT by MamaDearest
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To: Cindy
his evil spirit lives on via jihad."

Instead of subsidizing illegals for hurricane damage, we'd all be better off funding a "send a jihadi to jail" campaign.

3,744 posted on 10/09/2004 9:59:41 PM PDT by MamaDearest
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To: bored at work
October Plan." . . . "aggressive - even obvious - surveillance" of individuals "suspected of being terrorist sympathizers

Boo hoo. ACLU is miffed Muslims in Idaho will be under increased scrutinty

Muslims to be questioned

3,745 posted on 10/09/2004 10:07:05 PM PDT by MamaDearest
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To: Cindy
"Woman Says She Was Assaulted By Police Impersonator"

The lesson here is that if you're ever approached by anybody claiming to be law enforcement, even or maybe especially if they're armed and carrying a visible badge, before complying with any instructions they may issue, politely request that a marked unit be sent to verify all identities. If the contact is legit they will NOT be offended.

3,746 posted on 10/09/2004 10:09:19 PM PDT by ExSoldier (When the going gets tough, the tough go cyclic.)
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To: ExSoldier

Backup is always a good idea for both parties involved.


3,747 posted on 10/09/2004 10:22:14 PM PDT by Cindy
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To: MamaDearest

"SEND A JIHADI TO JAIL"

Hmmm... that has a nice bumper sticker ring to it.


3,748 posted on 10/09/2004 10:26:31 PM PDT by Cindy
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To: tmp02

Both of the feeds going down is certainly no coincidence. I hope our power grids in this country are being monitored on a continuous basis (by ground and air). If ever they had a reason to do it, now is the impetus. If this ruled a sabotage, public announcements should be made asking for help in visually monitoring all power lines and grids for any sign of tampering and promising rewards for convictions. Money talks and just might land us some terrorist types.


3,749 posted on 10/09/2004 10:26:57 PM PDT by MamaDearest
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To: Donna Lee Nardo
"The people who come to the mosque on Fridays are not the ones who are going to be doing these things."

So the ones "doing these things" are extremist Muslims who don't attend Mosques on Fridays or any other days? How gullible do they think we are?

3,750 posted on 10/09/2004 10:31:49 PM PDT by MamaDearest
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