Skip to comments.Threat Matrix: Daily Terror Threat - Thread Nineteen
Posted on 09/11/2004 12:09:10 AM PDT by nwctwx
Incase everyone hasn't noticed. The elections in Afganistan went off terror attack free. So did the elections is Australia. Some one needs to check the jhadi boards to see what their response is considering the impotence of AQ to stop either action.
Egypt hotel bombers 'aided by woman suicide backpacker'
By Inigo Gilmore and David Harrison in Taba
A female suicide bomber is believed to have taken part in the terrorist attack on the Red Sea hotel in which at least 31 people died, Israeli and Egyptian military officials said last night.
The woman, whose decapitated body was found at the back of the hotel, is thought to have been acting with two other suspected terrorists who rammed explosive-laden cars into the front of the Hilton hotel in the Sinai resort of Taba on Thursday night.
Two Egyptian security officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, said investigators felt the attacks were conducted by eight to 10 men, some of whom were suicide bombers.
The officials said investigators were focusing on two possible scenarios, one involving foreign terrorists who slipped in from Jordan or Saudi Arabia on speed boats and another involving a sleeper cell in Egypt that was awakened for the attacks.
IPN: update electrical towers downed near Mitchell airport due to sabotage. Government command post set up.
They place no value on human life. Not even their own. They then use our PC to lament when we attack their militant strongholds saying how many lives we have taken....they can't have it both ways!
What's good for the goose...... Why not - it could only be a morale booster for us!
correction - "it would be" should be "it wouldn't be"
Betcha most parents don't even know how many entrances and exits are readily accessible in their schools and how easy it would be for anyone to take command by marching up to the office and sealiing exits. The only certain way to prevent it is to control initial access to the school and have some means of button that alerts law enforcement if security is breached. Question is, how secure do parents want their children to be in public schools and will they pay for whatever changes and charges need to be made to enforce it. All those parent-teacher meetings and programs at night with open doors are an invitation for those who do not belong there to get a birds'eye view of the building.
I would say "it begins," but I think it began already and we need to hold on and be prepared for whatever the next few days and weeks have in store for us.
Actually, there are similar lows out there...his opinion wasn't all that unique in the jihad world. Very sad.
"We usually have two power feeds coming in," she said. "If one goes down, the other automatically takes over. We've never had a situation where both went down."
The airport was without power for nearly 21/2 hours, and the FBI was asked to investigate.
Maripat Blankenheim, spokeswoman for Waukesha-based American Transmission Company, said one the company's towers collapsed into a second tower. Both towers then fell into some distribution lines owned by We Energies. Live wires were discovered on the ground at about 5:40 p.m. at the tower site on S. 13th St. just south of E. College Ave., said We Energies spokeswoman Wendy Parks.
THE FOLLOWING ARTICLE IS AN EXACT QUOTE (MINUS THE GRAPHIC:
October 9, 2004
P O Box 27693
Alb., NM 87125-7693
Tel: (505) 400-7145
Radical Islamic Cleric Abu Hamza Would Apparently Like PLO Chairman Arafat Dead
Abu Hamza (BBC picture)
In a recording discovered by a British freelance undercover investigator, jailed radical Islamic cleric Abu Hamza al- Masri is heard raging against the Palestinian Liberation Organization's Yasser Arafat and even apparently wishing for his death.
He says (If) "this stupid Arafat going to give his blood to prostitution, I wish they committed him to a compressor to take all his blood and threw him like a cockroach into the dustbin as his life and death is not worth anything."
Glen Jenvey, the investigator who infiltrated Hamza's controversial Finsbury Park Mosque and his shadowy circle, and was able to obtain this and many other recordings, said on some of the other tapes that Hamza is again heard talking about Arafat and Arab sheikhs in a "threatening manner."
Jenvey said, "Arafat is a world leader and the targeting of him by Muslims would mean the (Israelis) would get the blame and peace in the Mideast would ... have no chance or hope. The only way forward is to beat groups like (this).
"If Abu Hamza and the Egyptian wing of al-qaeda are targeting Arafat," Jenvey said, "the PLO have the right, as Arafat is their leader, to know about the threats ... People like Abu Hamza want to see fighting in the Mideast because of their own wish to control a major faith."
The British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) reported that the United States alleges Hamza acted as an intermediary with a terrorist group which took 16 tourists hostage in the Yemen six years ago.
The U.S. also claims, the BBC reported, that Hamza provided support for terrorists, particularly al-Qaeda, and even attempted to establish a terror training camp in Oregon.
While Hamza denies any involvement in terrorism, he has always justified the attacks in New York and Washington in September 2001, the BBC reported.
Under current United Kingdom law, the BBC noted, Britain must seek U.S. agreement that no death penalty will be sought before any extradition is approved.
Jenvey had some advice for those concerned about this latest apparent threat from Hamza. "You should unite against terror and use the major faiths to teach men of war a lesson ... it's important that Arafat is given the same intelligence to protect him as (the Israeli leaders) as he's the leader of the Palestinian people not bin Laden or people like (Hamza)."
While this particular recording was not reported in British investigative journalist Neil Doyle's ( http://www.neildoyle.com ) new book "Terror Tracker," which documents his extensive efforts to infiltrate the inner workings of al-Qaida, many others recordings were.
On one tape Hamza was heard urging Muslim women to breed children for the purpose of creating suicide bombers. The recordings were handed over to authorities who are reported to be building a case for the radical cleric's extradition to the United States, Doyle said, where he has been indicted on 11 terrorism charges.
Hamza is being held at the high-security Belmarsh prison in east London pending a court hearing.
Jenvey said additional information about this disturbing development may be obtained by logging onto www.neildoyle.com
I can only use my school as a point of reference. We have a closed lunch which means that students are not allowed off campus during lunch. Largely we are fairly successful in efforts to keep them in, but it would be a lot more difficult to keep a determined and armed force out. especially if there was no prior warning. Then there is a large area of portable classrooms (my area) which sits along the perimeter of the athletic field. There are probably about 300-500 students and their teachers in these areas all day long. Each portable has at least two exits, but it would still be a hostage disaster.
Law Enforcement? After the debacle at Colombine, I seriously doubt that they will get the situation rectified in time. Trust me, I'd feel a LOT better if me and my best buddy (retired Airborne Ranger First Sergeant) had access (legally) to our firearms!
How secure do parents want their children to be in public schools and will they pay for whatever changes and charges need to be made to enforce it?
The Haitian parents of kids at my school can't afford to keep their kids properly fed and clothed!
You folks were always our rivals, being that I was in the 7th ID (L) (ooorah). Was also at Lewis for ROTC. Very pretty, but you can have the rain. Unfortunately both divisions had their colors cased. Heaven forgive me if I agree with sKerry on this one issue, we need a couple more Army Divisions on line again, we've drawn way too far down.
In this part I want to evaluate the potential military and political goals and the theater of operations of any Iranian military response to an attack on its nuclear weapons development infrastructure. This will provide a clue as to any perceived weakness that the US and its allies or Iraq may have that could be exploited to their advantage. Iran knows that any military response against the US or its allies could have potentially devastating effects upon its own regime. However, there is also an islamic fervor of invincibility as the true Islamic state with allahs favor resting upon them.
However, before I go further, Id like to cover an issue that has come out very recently concerning Iranian military doctrine - asymmetrical warfare. The completion of their recent wargames was suppose to be a demonstrations of these capabilities. So what is asymmetrical warfare? Asymmetrical warfare is in the simplest of terms warfare that applies comparative advantages against an enemys weaknesses. This is not a new or particular revolutionary concept. The U.S. military attempts to engage in asymmetrical warfare whenever we meet an enemy on the modern battlefield. The implicit premise is that asymmetric warfare deals with unknowns, with surprise in terms of ends, ways, and means. The more dissimilar the opponent, the more difficult it is to anticipate his actions. Any competent enemy will do the unexpected, if he believes it will work. This may provide a tactical or strategic advantage until it is countered. Therefore, Irans announcement that it has a doctrine of asymmetric warfare indicates that it is trying to develop a degree of sophistication in its military that it can counter anything that the US / allies or Israel may do to it. Part of the recent Iranian news release pointed to the military maneuvers and the integration of close air support, airlifting of heavy armor, use of new tanks, and missile capabilities. So much of this parts discussion naturally looks at Iranian advantages in the theater and how they may exploit them.
The political goals of an attack by Iran will likely focus on the following:
1. Rally support from the rest of the arab world against the US and Israel. This would be particularly true if a first strike is conducted against Iran by either Israel or the US. It would be much harder to obtain world support if Iran launches its own preemptive attack.
2. Embarrass the US and its allies militarily under conditions that cause them high casualties and / or tactical stalemate.
3. Deter further escalation of combat against Iran through the deployment of its forces and the preparation of defensive positions against a ground assault.
Attacking Israel is one of the tried and true means of gathering support of the arab world as well as to some degree some European nations. Just as Saddam was quick on the trigger to launch against Israel during Desert Storm, Iran will be quick to do the same. Propaganda broadcast by arab networks like Al-Jazera will further their cause to sway world opinion. There would be a lot of calling to jihad to fight the Christian crusaders. Any success against the US or Israel would naturally enhance their prestige and position of leadership for the arab cause and their bargaining position.
If Iran is able to successfully accomplish its military goals and place allied forces at a disadvantage, though probably temporally, would work to sway opinions in the US and allied nations. Already Iran is well aware of the divisive nature of the current operations in Iraq due to the current election campaigns. If they could inflict a single big time defeat, such as damaging or sinking an aircraft carrier, they could use that in an attempt to turn public opinion. If their special operations forces are successful in triggering wide spread disruptions of allied operations away from any point of attack, it would further show their superiority against the Great Satan. The ultimate goal would be to leverage their successes so that they could negotiate from a position of power.
Once their initial objects were achieved, the Iranian military would prepare for any potential counter attack that may be mounted. They realize that although the US has substantial forces in Iraq, they would have difficulty organizing a major counter attack and would need to be reinforced from the US, a process that could take weeks or months to get ground forces to the theater. By this phase of their political plans self survival of the theocracy would be foremost, especially if their initial operations are less than successful.
Military Objectives - Ground
As presented in Part 1, Iran has adequate forces to conduct ground operations against the US and its allies. However, because of the risk involved, Iran will carefully apply their forces where they could best obtain their objectives. Should they choose to attack into Iraq, they have two general options. The first consists of an attack into northern Iraq where there are limited resources and a hostile Kurdish population. The second, more likely option is to attack into southern Iraq where they may find sympathic Shiites, the bulk of Iraqs petrochemical facilities and the supply lines supporting the US and its allies.
Their main thrust would be relatively small section of Iraq between Basrah and the Persian Gulf and southward to control crossing points between Iraq and Kuwait. This strike would cut off the supply lines for the US and allied forces, creating a blockade. Iran is familiar with this territory as it was fought over during the 1980s war with Iraq. This was very effective until the US became involved in securing the Gulf and protecting shipping, allowing Iraq once again to receive supplies and material. It would be to Irans advantage to maintain the blockade as long as possible since it would significantly impact the US and allied forces in a similar manner.
I would also expect a supporting attack further north towards Amarah would serve to threaten the flank of any allied counter attack by units coming south out of Baghdad.
Military Objectives - Special Operations
There are significant numbers of Iranian special operations forces operating in Iraq right now. Their objective would be to stir up trouble and tie down US and coalition forces through multiple guerrilla attacks upon strategic targets such as logistic and command centers. Wide spread attacks would force the allies to either allow the terrorists to take over for a short time while they organize a counter attack or try to suppress the uprising and wait on the counter attack. Either way, the special operations forces have achieved their objective. If the allies organize right away for an attack, rear area operations will become difficult again as logistic and any supply lines would be hit. Freezing the allied attack would give ground forces time to consolidate their positions so that any counter attack would require a substantial troop build-up to be successful while maintaining the peace throughout the rest of Iraq.
Military Objectives - Sea
The main objective of Iranian naval forces would be to deny the use of the Persian gulf to the US fleet or to make it very costly. This would include attacks against any carrier battle group stationed there as well as trying to close the straits of Hormuz to all shipping. The goal is to develop a blockade of Iraq by sea long enough for ground forces to achieve their objectives. It would be very dangerous for the US to underestimate the Iranian capabilities. Our capital ships are vulnerable to shore-launched missiles as was apparent during Desert Storm when one of our amphibious assault ships was struck shortly after the ground assault began. Irans smaller, fast attack missile boats could launch hit and run attacks and with the newer chinese missiles could inflict some serious damage. Iranian submarines could do one of two things. First would be to try to inflict a first strike against the carrier group. Success is problematical since if a first strike against Iran is carried out by the Israelis or US, they would be alert too the threat. A more likely scenario would be to deploy the subs to attack undefended oil tankers and supply ships along shipping lanes coming into the Persian Gulf. This would send oil prices sky rocketing and inflict terror in the region. Unless US naval assets keep close tabs on their movements, US naval assets would initially be hard pressed to find them while at the same time dealing with the hit and run tactics and shore missile attacks. Finally, the occupation of US naval forces will divert support from ground troops to the fleet for a period of time, helping Iranian ground forces achieve their objectives.
Military Objectives - Air
Although their weakest asset, the recent wargames have indicated that they have developed a degree of close air support capability that could be used to support the ground assault. The best of the airforce would likely be held close to Tehran to protect the government, however, they would have a period of time to act while US naval air assets are dealing with the Iranian navy hit and run attacks and USAF assets are providing ground support to suppress guerilla attacks. Some assets could also be diverted to the east for counter shipping operations.
Military Objectives - Strategic Assets
Coalition difficulties in finding Scud launchers during Desert Shield / Storm will be exploited by Iran for counter attacks in the theater. Baghdad Green Zone housing the coalition and Iraqi headquarters would be one of their first targets. Oil facilities in the north would also be vulnerable as they may want to keep the facilities in the south somewhat intact for their own potential use. The longer range Shehab-3 missiles will likely be launched mostly at Israel to garner support of the arab countries with some potentially being launched towards England, Italy, or other european country to develop dissention in Europe against the US/Israel in support of stopping any prolonged operation against Iran for fear that they may be struck again. Other conventional targets would be the oil facilities of any Gulf countries supporting the coalition, again to raise terror, gain world support for a negotiated settlement of the conflict or black mail them into denying more support to the US for any counter attack.
Absolute worse case scenario would be that they use chemical / biological warheads. This is assuming that they dont have the nuclear warheads yet. This could be the wild card if Iranian objectives are not being adequately met. The most likely target would be Israel because if they respond with a nuclear strike there would be a great deal of pressure on Israel to justify the strike. Any justification would be generally rejected by many arab nations as a Zionist lie and would be viewed with skepticism by many in Europe.
A chemical/biological strike against US / coalition forces could work to increase anti-war opinions among the allies due to casualties or could back lash into a severe and potential nuclear strike by the US. However, because of close Russian ties, a nuclear counter strike by the US would be very dangerous and could pull Russia in on the Iranian side. That of course could fuel anti-war sentiment in the US and allied countries and gain more support from arab countries. However, this would also result in a major escalation of hostilities and the direct attack of Iran by US and coalition forces.
Part 2 - Conclusions and Observations
As you can see from Part 2, the Iranians have the capability to conduct asymmetrical warfare against the US and allied countries by focusing their strengths against our weaknesses in the region and they have a chance to succeed in the goals Ive listed. Iran would hope for quick success and the gaining of world opinion for a negotiated cessation of hostilities before the US and allies can effectively counter attack. Iran knows that once US military forces are marshalled, its days are numbered and could increase the chance that Iran could use more desperate measures. Israel will be attacked no matter what with a high possibility that chemical and biological weapons could be used. The US response would need to be carefully balanced and measured to prevent Russian intervention of behalf of Iran and to bring the conflict to a swift conclusion.
In Part 3, I will look at a couple of more detailed scenarios that I think could occur and their potential outcomes.
Oh yeah, the crushed beer can! I remember you guys. We used to go head to head with you at Fort Irwin and elsewhere. We were both light divisions...at least until the 9th became the High Tech Light Division. We got the very first Humvees and dune buggy's. Yup, soldiers at Fort Lewis never got a tan....they tended to rust instead. I was always cold, wet, tired, hungry and miserable.....
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