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ARG: 50 States & DC Poll: Kery 270, Bush 253 (All states results posted)
American Research Group ^ | 09/22/2004 | American Research Group

Posted on 09/22/2004 11:03:18 AM PDT by GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY

How close is the race for president?

Bush Kerry Nader Other DK Sep
US

(weighted)

47% 46% 1% 1% 5% 7-21
State:
Alabama 54% 40% 1% 0% 4% 13-16
Alaska 57% 30% 5% 3% 5% 9-11
Arizona 49% 43% * 1% 6% 11-14
Arkansas 48% 45% 2% 0% 5% 15-17
California 41% 52% * 1% 6% 11-13
Colorado 46% 45% 3% 1% 6% 10-13
Connecticut 39% 54% 1% 1% 5% 12-14
Delaware 41% 50% 2% 1% 6% 13-15
DC 11% 78% 6% 1% 4% 11-13
Florida 45% 46% 2% 1% 6% 17-20
Georgia 53% 42% * 1% 4% 11-13
Hawaii 41% 51% 4% 0% 4% 7-11
Idaho 59% 30% 3% 1% 7% 8-10
Illinois 43% 49% 2% 1% 5% 13-16
Indiana 54% 39% * 1% 6% 16-20
Iowa 48% 46% 1% 1% 5% 12-14
Kansas 57% 35% 2% 1% 6% 15-18
Kentucky 57% 39% 1% 0% 4% 8-12
Louisiana 50% 42% 1% 1% 6% 17-21
Maine 44% 48% 4% 0% 5% 8-10
Maryland 43% 52% 2% 0% 3% 7-9
Massachusetts 27% 64% * 1% 7% 10-13
Michigan 40% 48% 1% 1% 9% 17-21
Minnesota 45% 47% 2% 1% 5% 10-12
Mississippi 51% 42% 1% 1% 5% 14-17
Missouri 50% 44% * 1% 5% 16-19
Montana 60% 32% 3% 0% 5% 7-9
Nebraska 61% 30% 2% 1% 6% 9-12
Nevada 47% 45% 1% 1% 6% 12-14
New Hampshire 47% 45% 1% 1% 7% 15-17
New Jersey 42% 50% 1% 1% 6% 13-16
New Mexico 44% 49% 1% 0% 6% 14-16
New York 40% 52% 1% 2% 4% 14-16
North Carolina 49% 44% * 1% 6% 13-16
North Dakota 62% 33% 1% 0% 4% 7-10
Ohio 48% 46% 1% 1% 5% 17-20
Oklahoma 55% 38% * 1% 6% 15-20
Oregon 45% 47% 2% 1% 5% 10-13
Pennsylvania 46% 47% 1% 1% 5% 15-19
Rhode Island 30% 58% 4% 1% 6% 11-13
South Carolina 52% 40% 1% 1% 7% 14-16
South Dakota 58% 39% 1% 1% 2% 8-12
Tennessee 50% 43% 1% 1% 5% 16-18
Texas 58% 36% 1% 1% 5% 16-20
Utah 64% 27% 4% 1% 5% 10-13
Vermont 40% 50% 4% 0% 7% 9-12
Virginia 49% 43% * 1% 7% 12-14
Washington 44% 51% 2% 0% 3% 9-13
West Virginia 46% 46% 2% 1% 6% 14-16
Wisconsin 46% 46% 1% 1% 6% 12-15
Wyoming 65% 29% 2% 0% 3% 9-11
600 completed telephone interviews among likely voters
in each state and DC on dates in September (Sep).
MOE
± 4 percentage points, 95% of the time.
Row totals may not equal 100% due to rounding.


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Alabama; US: Alaska; US: Arizona; US: Arkansas; US: California; US: Colorado; US: Connecticut; US: Delaware; US: District of Columbia; US: Florida; US: Georgia; US: Hawaii; US: Idaho; US: Illinois; US: Indiana; US: Iowa; US: Kansas; US: Kentucky; US: Louisiana; US: Maine; US: Maryland; US: Massachusetts; US: Michigan; US: Minnesota; US: Mississippi; US: Missouri; US: Nebraska; US: Nevada; US: New Hampshire; US: New Jersey; US: New Mexico; US: New York; US: North Carolina; US: North Dakota; US: Ohio; US: Oklahoma; US: Pennsylvania; US: Rhode Island; US: South Carolina; US: South Dakota; US: Tennessee; US: Texas; US: Utah; US: Vermont; US: Virginia; US: Washington; US: West Virginia; US: Wisconsin; US: Wyoming
KEYWORDS: 2004election; arg; bush; kerry; napalminthemorning; polls; president
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Before anyone flips out.. It's ARG.. Take Bush's totals, add 3-5 points, take Kerry's totals, minus 3-5 from them and go from there. They lean left.
1 posted on 09/22/2004 11:03:19 AM PDT by GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY
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To: GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY

ARRRRGGGGGGGGG !!!!

Okay, I think it's polloganda, but I'll *act* like its true ...

work like the dickens to HELP BUSH WIN.


2 posted on 09/22/2004 11:05:09 AM PDT by WOSG (George W Bush / Dick Cheney - Right for our Times!)
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To: GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY

One of those "interactive" polls the Dems have been juicing?


3 posted on 09/22/2004 11:05:48 AM PDT by Bogey78O (John Kerry: Better than Ted Kennedy!)
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To: GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY

bush and kerry are not tied in wisconsin or west virgina

This poll is crap.


4 posted on 09/22/2004 11:06:10 AM PDT by flashbunny (RINO's pleading for unity means they want to sabotage the republican party in peace.)
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To: GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY
Here's a version where the links work...
How close is the race for president?

Bush Kerry Nader Other DK Sep
US (weighted) 47% 46% 1% 1% 5% 7-21
State:
Alabama 54% 40% 1% 0% 4% 13-16
Alaska 57% 30% 5% 3% 5% 9-11
Arizona 49% 43% * 1% 6% 11-14
Arkansas 48% 45% 2% 0% 5% 15-17
California 41% 52% * 1% 6% 11-13
Colorado 46% 45% 3% 1% 6% 10-13
Connecticut 39% 54% 1% 1% 5% 12-14
Delaware 41% 50% 2% 1% 6% 13-15
DC 11% 78% 6% 1% 4% 11-13
Florida 45% 46% 2% 1% 6% 17-20
Georgia 53% 42% * 1% 4% 11-13
Hawaii 41% 51% 4% 0% 4% 7-11
Idaho 59% 30% 3% 1% 7% 8-10
Illinois 43% 49% 2% 1% 5% 13-16
Indiana 54% 39% * 1% 6% 16-20
Iowa 48% 46% 1% 1% 5% 12-14
Kansas 57% 35% 2% 1% 6% 15-18
Kentucky 57% 39% 1% 0% 4% 8-12
Louisiana 50% 42% 1% 1% 6% 17-21
Maine 44% 48% 4% 0% 5% 8-10
Maryland 43% 52% 2% 0% 3% 7-9
Massachusetts 27% 64% * 1% 7% 10-13
Michigan 40% 48% 1% 1% 9% 17-21
Minnesota 45% 47% 2% 1% 5% 10-12
Mississippi 51% 42% 1% 1% 5% 14-17
Missouri 50% 44% * 1% 5% 16-19
Montana 60% 32% 3% 0% 5% 7-9
Nebraska 61% 30% 2% 1% 6% 9-12
Nevada 47% 45% 1% 1% 6% 12-14
New Hampshire 47% 45% 1% 1% 7% 15-17
New Jersey 42% 50% 1% 1% 6% 13-16
New Mexico 44% 49% 1% 0% 6% 14-16
New York 40% 52% 1% 2% 4% 14-16
North Carolina 49% 44% * 1% 6% 13-16
North Dakota 62% 33% 1% 0% 4% 7-10
Ohio 48% 46% 1% 1% 5% 17-20
Oklahoma 55% 38% * 1% 6% 15-20
Oregon 45% 47% 2% 1% 5% 10-13
Pennsylvania 46% 47% 1% 1% 5% 15-19
Rhode Island 30% 58% 4% 1% 6% 11-13
South Carolina 52% 40% 1% 1% 7% 14-16
South Dakota 58% 39% 1% 1% 2% 8-12
Tennessee 50% 43% 1% 1% 5% 16-18
Texas 58% 36% 1% 1% 5% 16-20
Utah 64% 27% 4% 1% 5% 10-13
Vermont 40% 50% 4% 0% 7% 9-12
Virginia 49% 43% * 1% 7% 12-14
Washington 44% 51% 2% 0% 3% 9-13
West Virginia 46% 46% 2% 1% 6% 14-16
Wisconsin 46% 46% 1% 1% 6% 12-15
Wyoming 65% 29% 2% 0% 3% 9-11
600 completed telephone interviews among likely voters
in each state and DC on dates in September (Sep).
MOE
± 4 percentage points, 95% of the time.
Row totals may not equal 100% due to rounding.

5 posted on 09/22/2004 11:06:51 AM PDT by GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY
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To: GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY

ARG is full of crap, no way Ohio is only a 2 point race.


6 posted on 09/22/2004 11:08:01 AM PDT by finnman69 (cum puella incedit minore medio corpore sub quo manifestus globus, inflammare animos)
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To: Bogey78O
One of those "interactive" polls the Dems have been juicing?

No. This is a legitimate polling outfit that uses traditional polling methods.

7 posted on 09/22/2004 11:08:08 AM PDT by GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY
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To: GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY


The same traditional polling methods that gave Gore double digit leads in Tennessee, Louisiana, and Kentucky in 2000?


ARG is a joke.


8 posted on 09/22/2004 11:09:10 AM PDT by Josh in PA
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To: GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY

The big one in this poll is Florida. A Must Win for Bush


9 posted on 09/22/2004 11:09:13 AM PDT by Nonstatist
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To: GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY

I just don't believe polls anymore.


10 posted on 09/22/2004 11:09:33 AM PDT by Ruth A.
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To: GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY

These are the same people that had Schwarzenegger in CA having no chance to win last year.


11 posted on 09/22/2004 11:09:39 AM PDT by Spackidagoosh
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To: GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY
"among likely voters"

Bzzt. wrong answer. BS poll. FWIW, I've got a Bush win at roughly 280 to Kerry's 230 give or take a few.

12 posted on 09/22/2004 11:10:37 AM PDT by KantianBurke (Am back but just for a short while)
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To: flashbunny

ARG is useful because they use the same method for every state. They're pretty consistently off 3 or 4 points (some say 5, but let's be conservative) in Kerry's favor so they give an interesting state-by-state post-adjustment picture of the race.


13 posted on 09/22/2004 11:11:18 AM PDT by JohnnyZ ("The common man doesn't look at me as some rich witch." --Teresa Heinz Kerry)
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To: GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY

What does weighted mean?


14 posted on 09/22/2004 11:12:37 AM PDT by formercalifornian (Kerry: Let's turn back the clock to 1968. I mean 1969.)
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To: Nonstatist
The MSM and the DUmmies will be orgasmic about this. In reality, however, it looks pretty good for W.

As others have mentioned, ARG tends to lean far, far left. Even at that, if W takes only FL out of Fn's tally, he wins by a fair margin.

FL will be tough, but I've got to believe we will win it once again, and with it the election.

15 posted on 09/22/2004 11:12:57 AM PDT by comebacknewt
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To: Ruth A.
I just don't believe polls anymore.

I believe the polls, or some of them at least. I will tell you which ones on November 3.

16 posted on 09/22/2004 11:12:59 AM PDT by sphinx
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To: GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY

SEE http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html

Weighted averages of all polls show Bush well ahead.


17 posted on 09/22/2004 11:13:15 AM PDT by ZULU (Fear the government which fears your guns. God, guts, and guns made America great.)
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To: GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY

yep, Bush up by only 11 in GA? What, were they polling Atlanta?


18 posted on 09/22/2004 11:14:25 AM PDT by eyespysomething (I'm typing up lottery tickets. I mean, as long as the content is true the rest doesn't matter.)
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To: KantianBurke
FWIW, I've got a Bush win at roughly 280 to Kerry's 230 give or take a few.

Actually, you are not far off from ARG's numbers then. They show F'n with a one point lead in FL. If you flip that state to W, their numbers come very close to yours.

19 posted on 09/22/2004 11:15:16 AM PDT by comebacknewt
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To: eyespysomething
yep, Bush up by only 11 in GA? What, were they polling Atlanta? Fulton and DeKalb Counties I am sure... Cynthia's district...
20 posted on 09/22/2004 11:15:55 AM PDT by GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY
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To: finnman69

Loaded with Zogby's interactive special sauce and a load of BS.


21 posted on 09/22/2004 11:17:25 AM PDT by DarthVader (John Kerry is really Janet Reno dressed up as a man.)
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To: GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY

Actually, the results are not far from other polls. The real difference is that ARG has Penn and Fla going for Kerry each by 1%. That represents a 48 EC point turnaround for Kerry. BFD, there's only one poll that counts.


22 posted on 09/22/2004 11:17:50 AM PDT by The_Victor
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To: GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY

i have seen other polls today showing a big jump for kerry--not good--but they were based on rassmusan-and zogby


23 posted on 09/22/2004 11:18:22 AM PDT by rang1995
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To: formercalifornian

I believe it means that they have the Rep/Dem/Ind breakdown of the state reflected in the percentages of the respondents.


24 posted on 09/22/2004 11:19:41 AM PDT by maryz
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To: GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY

rasmussen...


Election 2004

National Political Tracking Data

Updated daily by Noon Eastern

Last Update Wednesday

Click on Topic for Details

Presidential Tracking Bush 49 Kerry 45
Congress Dem 43 GOP 41
President Bush Job Approval 53
Electoral College Bush 213 - Kerry 204
Updated Weekly
Bush Favorable 52 Unfavorable 47
Kerry Favorable 50 Unfavorable 48
Battleground States Bush 47 Kerry 47
Right Track? Right 42 Wrong 54
Who is a Better Leader? Bush 50 Kerry 37
Trust on Nat'l Defense? Bush 53 Kerry 41
Trust to Manage Economy? Bush 50 Kerry 45
Winning the War on Terror US 47 Terrorists 30
How is Bush handling Iraq Ex/Good 45 Poor 42
How is Bush handling Econ Ex/Good 43 Poor 41






Electoral College:

Bush 213 Kerry 204

The latest Rasmussen Reports Electoral College projection shows George W. Bush with 213 Electoral Votes and John Kerry with 204. There are ten states with 121 Electoral Votes in the Toss-Up category.

Generally speaking, any state where the candidate leads by less than five points is considered a Toss-Up.

* Bush has a lead from one to four points in six Toss-Up states with 72 Electoral Votes.

* Kerry has a lead from one to four points in two Toss-Up states with 17 Electoral Vote. More...

Ohio: Bush 48% Kerry 45%

45% Say Mission in Iraq Will Be Judged a Success

Colorado Senate: Coors 49% Salazar 48%

SD Senate: Thune 50% Daschle 47%


25 posted on 09/22/2004 11:20:33 AM PDT by papasmurf (Gimme' big ears, for 4 more years!!!)
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To: WOSG

No worries. I emailed Garrety @ Kerry Spot and told him this was bogus: http://www.nationalreview.com/kerry/kerryspot.asp

Look at "UPDATE" he quotes me.


26 posted on 09/22/2004 11:21:09 AM PDT by slowhand520
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To: GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY

From 2000:

1) KY Gore +6 (Bush won by 16)
2) LA Gore +7 (Bush won by 8)
3) WV Gore +8 (Bush won by 6)
4) TN Gore +6 (Bush won by 4)




ARG is about 5 points favoreable for Kerry on the average. If you add 5 points to Bush, the results should be reasonable.


27 posted on 09/22/2004 11:21:23 AM PDT by TomEwall
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To: GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY

a big drop here
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
if you run the mouse over each state you will see what poll it's using


28 posted on 09/22/2004 11:21:23 AM PDT by rang1995
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Comment #29 Removed by Moderator

To: The_Victor
Actually, the results are not far from other polls. The real difference is that ARG has Penn and Fla going for Kerry each by 1%. That represents a 48 EC point turnaround for Kerry. BFD, there's only one poll that counts.

I think that ARG is generally 3-6 points weighted pro-Kerry in most states. Here are some examples: Bush leads by double-digits in Arizons in most polls, but six with ARG. Bush leads by 16 points or so in Georgia in most polls, but 11 with ARG. Bush trails by 4-6 points in Michigan but is down 8 with ARG. Bush has a comfortable 13 point lead or so in TN, but is only up 7 with ARG.

30 posted on 09/22/2004 11:25:45 AM PDT by GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY
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To: comebacknewt

http://www.archives.gov/federal_register/electoral_college/calculator.html

Contrary to many breathless freepers I seriously doubt MD or CA are going to end up in Bush's pocket. A 285 Bush win to Kerry's 253 is my guesstimate.


31 posted on 09/22/2004 11:27:50 AM PDT by KantianBurke (Am back but just for a short while)
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To: formercalifornian
I'm not sure what "weighted" means in this context, but it may mean they use a formula that counts a vote more or less depending on the polled person's BMI (body mass index). A 260-pound person's opinion would count twice as much as a 130-pound person.

But that's just a guess.

32 posted on 09/22/2004 11:28:19 AM PDT by Verginius Rufus
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To: GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY

If we adjust by 3 points ....

Bush adds WI (+10), WV (+5), FL (+27), MN (+10), OR (+7), PA (+21), which very closely matches what unbiased polls show. That makes the race Bush 333, Kerry 205.

If we only adjust two points, Bush gains only Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and West Virginia, and the other two go tossup, which still yields Bush 316, Kerry 205.

33 posted on 09/22/2004 11:29:05 AM PDT by JohnnyZ ("The common man doesn't look at me as some rich witch." --Teresa Heinz Kerry)
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To: finnman69

Wasn't a poll released on Monday showing an 8-pt lead in Ohio?


34 posted on 09/22/2004 11:29:59 AM PDT by RockinRight (W stands for whoop-a**!!!)
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To: Verginius Rufus

Ah. Must be those anti-Atkins types, General Mills or somebody, behind this poll!:)


35 posted on 09/22/2004 11:30:24 AM PDT by formercalifornian (Kerry: Let's turn back the clock to 1968. I mean 1969.)
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To: rang1995
If you look at each state there is a disproportionate number of women surveyed to men. I believe typical voting is opposite.
36 posted on 09/22/2004 11:31:15 AM PDT by migop4bush
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To: papasmurf

Rasmussen sez: Bush wins and Dasshole loses.

I can live with that.


37 posted on 09/22/2004 11:32:09 AM PDT by Hermann the Cherusker
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To: GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY
I think that ARG is generally 3-6 points weighted pro-Kerry in most states.

From electoral-vote.com the ARG results appear similar to what is currently posted with the most recent changes coming from Rasmussen. You may be right about ARG, if the weight their % based upon registrations of the population (that's usually what is meant by weighted), then their number could be wildly off. It depends upon the accuracy of the weighting. I just refuse to get upset by the day-to-day fluctuation in polling numbers.

38 posted on 09/22/2004 11:33:03 AM PDT by The_Victor
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To: Hermann the Cherusker

Mel Martinez also wins, IMHO.


39 posted on 09/22/2004 11:33:04 AM PDT by RockinRight (W stands for whoop-a**!!!)
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To: KantianBurke
I'm right with you. I say Kerry picks off NH, and W takes WI while everything else stays the same.

That would make it 284 - 254.

40 posted on 09/22/2004 11:33:18 AM PDT by comebacknewt
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To: GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY
Check this too:

http://electoral-vote.com/

41 posted on 09/22/2004 11:37:56 AM PDT by IDontLikeToPayTaxes
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To: comebacknewt

Thing about Florida...Jeb won re-election easily at a time when we were told that anger over the recount was high. The military vote should strongly favor the President.

Florida will be close, but I doubt it will be as close as 2000. And if Bush wins PA, then Florida may not be so important.


42 posted on 09/22/2004 11:37:58 AM PDT by True_wesT
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To: GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY

Can we get a real polling firm to do a real poll.


43 posted on 09/22/2004 11:44:11 AM PDT by CzarNicky (The problem with bad ideas is that they seemed like good ideas at the time.)
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To: GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY

Fiddled--UPDATE: Kerry Spot reader Matthew points out, "If you click on each state of this poll individually, you will see how distorted the polls are. For example, look at Illinois. The sampling is 29% Republicans, and 42% Democrats. And Bush only trails by 6? Same with PA. 42% are Republicans and 48% are Democrats. The poll also is weighted more towards women than men."

Yup, as I look over this, I see Florida is 55 percent women, 45 percent men. Ohio, 54 percent women, 46 percent men.

Also Kerry Spot reader Michael notes that this ARG poll has essentially the same results as the ARG poll completed 9/1, a 47-47 tie.

NRO Kerry Spot


44 posted on 09/22/2004 11:44:50 AM PDT by the Real fifi
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To: Nonstatist

The big 4 are:
MI, OH, PA, and FL.

Kerry needs 3, maybe all 4 of these.
Bush needs to keep OH and can then win with either PA or FL.

In general ... if the President gets any 2 he will win. Kerry needs 3, and that still might not be enough with WI going (R).


45 posted on 09/22/2004 11:51:45 AM PDT by BlueNgold (Feed the Tree .....)
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To: GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY

Take a look at Maine,New York,Illinois

These are biased but they seem to validate SUSA

Bush up only 9 in MS?

FOOL PLEASE


46 posted on 09/22/2004 11:51:58 AM PDT by skaterboy
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To: GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY
This is just plain silly! Kerry is not up in Florida, and it is not near that close in West Virginia, Wisconsin, or Nevada. This is nothing more than a pipe dream for the Dems.
47 posted on 09/22/2004 11:52:11 AM PDT by Clump
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To: the Real fifi

I looked at the gender issue: ARG's polls model the 2000 exit polls as far as gender is concerned.

The party registration numbers are also somewhat reflective as well. (That's from memory and not from any empirical data).

That may explain the pro-Kerry bent. Assuming 2004 is going to model 2000 is a mistake.


48 posted on 09/22/2004 11:52:47 AM PDT by GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY
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To: comebacknewt

Bush is up in New Hampshire in both ARG and other polls.


49 posted on 09/22/2004 11:54:51 AM PDT by Hermann the Cherusker
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To: GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY
If you want to know who is winning just look at where they are campaigning. Kerry is now campaigning in what were once safe states. Bush is campaigning in states that have come into play.

BTW - Kerry this week was in Massachusetts, New York and Florida.

50 posted on 09/22/2004 11:56:49 AM PDT by N. Theknow (N. Theknow - Proud Member - Vast Right Wing Googling Pajama Monkeys)
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