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AP PHOTO/HADI MIZBANAmong voters in the statewide survey, 53 percent said President Bush is better able to handle the war in Iraq while 33 percent chose Sen. John Kerry. |
Bush shows sizable lead among Colorado voters
By PETER ROPER
THE PUEBLO CHIEFTAIN
More Colorado voters trust President Bush and his handling of the Iraq war than they do Democratic Sen. John Kerry, according to a statewide voter survey commissioned by The Pueblo Chieftain.
In a telephone survey last week of 600 registered voters who are likely to vote, 51 percent of the respondents said they would vote for Bush while 39 percent said they would vote for Kerry. The poll was conducted by Ciruli Associates of Denver. The margin for error in the poll is 4 percent.
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"President Bush is showing surprising strength in Colorado and it's clear that Sen. Kerry has an uphill battle in the next few weeks," said pollster Floyd Ciruli.
There are more registered Republicans than Democrats in Colorado and the survey reflected that, with 42 percent of those surveyed describing themselves as either strong or mild Republicans and 33 percent describing themselves as strong or mild Democrats.
"While state voter registration is a little closer than that, historically more Republicans turn out to vote than Democrats," Ciruli said.
Bush appears to be drawing more support from Democrats and independents than Kerry is from Republicans and unaffiliated voters. According to the survey, 85 percent of the Republican voters said they were supporting Bush, along with 13 percent of the Democrats and 44 percent of the unaffiliated voters.
By comparison, Kerry had the support of 77 percent of the Democrats contacted, just 6 percent of the Republicans, and 34 percent of the unaffiliated.
"That's a surprising statistic because unaffiliated voters in Colorado tend to vote more Democratic," said Ciruli. "The fact that Bush is attracting more of them right now is significant." At the root of Bush's support is a greater degree of voter confidence in his handling of the war in Iraq and his leadership in general. According to the survey:
Fifty-five percent said Bush is a "strong leader" as compared to 27 percent who said Kerry is.
On the question of waging war against terrorism, 55 percent endorsed Bush while 29 percent chose Kerry.
Fifty-three percent approved of Bush's performance as president and the same number said he is better equipped to deal with the war in Iraq. That compared to 43 percent who disapproved of his performance and 33 percent who said Kerry is better suited to handle the war.
Similarly, 64 percent said the United States needs to keep troops in Iraq to provide security to the new government while only 26 percent said they should be withdrawn immediately.
But support for the war is not set in concrete. Asked whether the war has been worth it thus far, just 47 percent said it has, while 43 percent said it hasn't. With the survey's margin of error at 4 percent, those answers could also be regarded as a tie.
"That's a trend that is continuing downward when you realize that more than 60 percent of Coloradans supported the war just a year ago," said Ciruli. "Nationally, a slight majority of voters now believe the war is not worth the cost."
Asked about the economy and jobs, 46 percent said Bush is the better choice while 36 percent picked Kerry. On the domestic issues of health care, education and the federal deficit, voters gave Bush and Kerry almost identical marks, which underlines the importance of the war in Iraq as the central campaign issue.
"Both campaigns have tried to emphasize their domestic agendas in the past few weeks, but it seems that the president's support is clearly based on his conduct of the war on terrorism and the public's perception of him as a leader," Ciruli said.
Pollsters and other commentators have noted for months that American voters seem strongly polarized in this election with few people undecided. Ciruli said that was confirmed by last week's survey - only 7 percent of those contacted said they were undecided. "And that number is usually in double digits," he said.
"But the election still hinges on independents," said Ciruli. "Most core Republican and Democratic voters are going to stick with their candidates until Nov. 2. What could change is the support of unaffiliated voters if something dramatic happens before Election Day."
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
If you had to vote today for president would you vote for George W. Bush or John Kerry?
| Bush | 51% |
| Kerry | 39 |
| Other | 2 |
| Won’t vote | 1 |
| Don’t know/refused | 7 |
If Ralph Nader, the Reform Party candidate, were on the ballot:
| Bush | 50% |
| Kerry | 38 |
| Nader | 3 |
| Other | 1 |
| Won't vote | 1 |
| Don't know/refused | 7 |
PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL
Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?
| Approve | 53% |
| Disapprove | 43 |
| Don't know/refused | 4 |
WAR IN IRAQ
Do you think it was worth going to war in Iraq?
| Worth it | 47% |
| Not worth it | 43 |
| Don't know/refused | 10 |
Should we keep troops in Iraq to ensure the security of the new Iraq government?
| Stay | 64% |
| Withdraw | 26 |
| Don't know/refused | 10 |
STRONGEST CANDIDATE ON ISSUES
Which candidate do you believe is better able to deal with the following issues?
| Bush | Kerry | Neither | Both | Other | Don't know | |
| Economy and jobs | 46% | 36% | 8% | 3% | 3% | 4% |
| Campaign against terror | 55 | 29 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| Education | 45 | 36 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| War in Iraq | 53 | 33 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Health care | 40 | 40 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 6 |
| Medicare and prescription drugs | 39 | 39 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| Federal deficit | 40 | 37 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
SUMMARY OF RATINGS
| Favorable | Unfavorable | Don't know | |
| Salazar | 63% | 27% | 10% |
| Owens | 61 | 30 | 8 |
| Bush | 56 | 41 | 3 |
| Coors | 56 | 33 | 11 |
| Kerry | 48 | 48 | 4 |
| Nader | 21 | 59 | 20 |
ECONOMY
Considering the next six months, do you believe the Colorado economy will improve, stay the same or get worse?
Improve 45%
Stay the same 38
Get worse 9
Don’t know/refused 8
