Skip to comments.MEDIA ASLEEP? ISRAEL ARMING TO STRIKE IRAN
Posted on 09/24/2004 9:46:05 AM PDT by CHARLITE
The recent announcement of a deal for Israel to acquire thousands of Precision-Guided-Munitions (PGM) went largely unheralded by Elite-Media, who mostly yawned and ho-hummed the sale. One source, the Seattle Post Intelligencer did little more than the intellectually lazy approach, recycling an AP report but the numbers in the report were very telling: 3000 2000-pound laser-guided bombs, 1000 1000-pound laser-guided bombs and 500 500-pound precision-guided bombs.
The most important number noted above is the huge number of 2000-pound PGMs these are heavy, penetrating munitions needed to destroy Irans nuclear facilities. The PGMs also have a satellite-targeting option allowing the attacking aircraft to stand off great distances and lob the bombs to the general area of the target with the terminal phase of the bombs path being guided by satellite.
In case you havent realized the fact: the Iranian nuclear enrichment program will soon dramatically affect your life and the lives of countless millions in other nations. A massive showdown is coming over Iranian enrichment of used nuclear reactor fuel that will draw many more countries into the fray in the Persian Gulf. The Iranian nuclear weapons program is a huge, robust operation that gets little play in the mainstream media. It is the program of a country determined to be a major nuclear power.
There are a total of five Iranian nuclear facilities the Israelis will have to strike to assure the elimination of Iran as a nuclear threat for the future:
Tehran Tehran is the command and coordinating center for the Iranian nuclear program, with the offices being located in a suburb to assure civilian deaths and what the media loves to tout as collateral damage. Precision strikes on the program offices, which include a missile program, should keep civilian deaths low. But the Iranians may cluster civilians around the suburban target if the government thinks an air strike is imminent. The facility includes a research reactor, radio-isotope production unit and multi-purpose laboratories. Arak Heavy water production is centered in Arak. Heavy water is used to moderate nuclear fission in reactors. Large amounts of power are required to produce heavy water and the reactors supplying that power will need to be bombed. Natanz (not shown on map) A facility containing gas centrifuges 200 miles south of Tehran and Northeast of Isfahan. Gas centrifuges separate and enrich uranium that has been gasified, resulting in a highly-enriched, bomb-grade product. This is the last step to obtain material for a nuclear weapon. Bushehr A 1000-megawatt reactor on the Persian Gulf coast built by the Russians under contract. This reactor should have started by now. The used fuel from the Bushehr reactor will provide Uranium for many, many bombs and missiles. Isfahan Containing a variety of reactors and Uranium conversion facilities, the Isfahan facility is a sprawling complex. Most Americans fail to realize the enormity of the Iranian weapons program due to the failings of the media, although pictures and surveillance photographs of the facilities are readily available.
Any Israeli strike will of necessity be massive, employing squadrons of F-15s and F-16s escorted by electronic-warfare radar-jamming aircraft to blind Iranian air defense radar. While the Israeli air strike on the Iraqi French-built Osirak reactor in 1981 was a relatively brief in-and-out affair the air strikes into Iran will be sustained and intense, with many dozens of mostly 2000-pound PGMs being used to pulverize reactors, gas centrifuges, heavy water production and support facilities. A thorough job is required as the likelihood of catching the Iranians unaware a few years later is small. Iranian air defenses vary from good to bad to inconsequential. The biggest threat will from salvos of anti-aircraft missiles that may actually get lucky occasionally and succeed in downing an attacking aircraft.
American complicity is required for any strike to be successful; indeed, American participation may even be in the works. Israel may not possess adequate fuel tanker aircraft to refuel the strike groups returning to Israel and U.S. Air Force tankers will likely be needed. If U.S. Air Force aircraft join the assault the numbers will be adequate to systematically pulverize Iranian facilities to such an extent that resurrection of the program would not be feasible. Areas contaminated by uranium will be small and limited to the immediate sites although Iran may be willing to expend thousands of lives trying to recover nuclear material from the rubble for sale to terrorists groups for the construction of dirty bombs for revenge.
Iranian protests that the nuclear program is peaceful and for electrical generation alone is a patently ridiculous statement for a country able to easily build many oil-fired power plants cheaply. Iran has adequate oil to run electrical plants at a far lower cost than nuclear reactors for many years. There is much information available on the Worldwide Web on this topic but mainstream medias attention-span on the topic is practically non-existent, likely seen as a boring topic, those pesky descriptions of reactors and bombers etc. not suited for prime time. It will be a prime-time event, spanning days of 24/7 coverage, mostly by talking heads, who know little of the subject.
Neither the United States, Israel or many other countries intend on allowing the Iranian nuclear weapons program to succeed and will unhesitatingly widen the current war to deprive Iran of its imminent acquisition of nuclear weapons.
About the Writer: Chris Long is a life-long devotee of history, strategic affairs, military history, and geopolitics. He lives in Georgia and is employed as a computer systems analyst .
I think it's an urgent call for us all to go out and buy popcorn.
Iran has many agent here in the U.S. planning attacks. They will attack us on our own soil.
I figure the bombing will take place on or shortly after Nov. 3.
It might convert Iran from 55,000,000 pro-western and 5,000,000 Arabists to 60,000,000 Arabists overnight. Of course, many (if not most) in the Middle East (rightly or wrongly) see Israel as the 51st state of the US.
How will the Commonwealth of Independent States take to having their technicians attacked?
Heavy water production is centered in Arak. Heavy water is used to moderate nuclear fission in reactors.
Heavy water is only required in Canadian type reactors or commonly called heavy water reactors. For US type (Westinghouse, Babcock & Wilcox, CE [ABB], and GE) and most other types of reactors, heavy water is not required. A heavy water moderated reactor does allow the use of natural uranium (that is non-enriched uranium to be used .711 percent or so U-235 - the good stuff) as opposed to enriched uranium (typically on the order of 3%+ for a standard US reactor). Therefore since Iran is manufacturing D2O, it would appear that they are keeping the option open to build reactors that wouldn't require enriched uranium to operate (in the event their enrichment facilities are "lost" or they can't get a supply of enriched uranium). You do need hydrogen isotopes (deuterium and tritium) if you are going to make a thermonuclear device (H bomb). Tritium can be made by bombarding Li - they couldn't be thinking H bomb too - could they?
A 1000-megawatt reactor on the Persian Gulf coast built by the Russians under contract. This reactor should have started by now. The used fuel from the Bushehr reactor will provide Uranium for many, many bombs and missiles.
The spent fuel from a reactor will not provide uranium, it will only provide plutonium. This means that Iran is also planning on developing plutonium weapons in addition to uranium weapons, assuming they have the reprocessing facilities and plan to run the reactor in a manner to produce the best plutonium isotope (Pu-239 versus the neutron absorbers). Uranium enrichment is used to produce U-235 that can be used in uranium weapons - which is why it is so very important that we got all of Qaddafi's equipment. You don't need a reactor to make a uranium device.
With that said however, I wasn't aware of the investment that Iran had made into their nuclear program. If they are building facilities for uranium enrichment, heavy water production, fuel reprocessing, and reactors, they are very serious about a number of paths to produce both uranium and plutonium weapons. These facilities and associated processes are not for a peaceful nuclear program in an oil and natural gas rich region. This simply can't happen. These facilities must be taken out in the short term and the government changed in the long term. We (including Israel and the remainder of the sane, free world) need to step up to the plate now. Regardless of the spread of radioactive contamination and civilian deaths, we are at this point now and it must be stopped. Iranian leadership has already stated what they will do with weapons - and they're not a real sane bunch at the top. This will lead directly to our citizens being killed in much larger scale than on 9/11.
yes, it is a totally different ballgame than the Cold War. if they get nukes, they will use them on the offense.
Good article. Thanks.
Very comprehensive and correct analysis sir. My hat is off to you.
If I may add one detail from what I have read, I dont believe the Iranians have the fuel rod assemblies yet, because the Russian contractors havent delivered them.
If the Israelis can bomb those plants before the fuel rods are delivered, it avoids killing Russian contractors and reduces the potential for gross contamination of the region. This further tightens the time frame down to a very short and narrow attack window.
There. Much better.
I think it would be best to wait until the reactors are fully fueled.
The fallout may reach us here. I suggest visiting http://ready.gov and following instructions about bottled water, food, and duct tape. Oh, and BLOAT.
Shhhhhhhhh! I want it to be a surprise.
Hell, if there is such a thing as a "help Israel" fund, I would be happy to contribute monetarily to this acquisition.
Why the "ho hum" attitude? Israel has not been known to commit barbaric acts agains someone who is not an active enemy. Ever. And I do not expect them ever to.
Next puzzling "crisis", please?
Yes, of course they have, and I heard on KSFO, San Francisco, that even if there is a regime change, they will still try to get nucs. Given what Israel did in 1981, I do not see any other way out of this, except for the military option. I wish it could be dealt with peacefully, but I just do not see that happening.
I will be in the Philippines from Oct 20th, to Nov 5th, but you know I will be paying attention to the news in Manila.
...sound of gun cocking...
He may be a "palaeo." I initially thought the "Chron" in "Chronwatch" meant it was affiliated with the anti-Jewish, anti-Israel, national-relativist Chronicles.
Thanks for the ping. Waiting impatiently for action. ;-) Go IDF! ;-)
Hmm, from the look of this, GW may not be able to wait until Nov. 3 or 4.
This goes nicely with our conversations of the last few weeks.
I think it'll be similar to 1981 when the Israelis wiped out the Osirak reactor near Baghdad.
Many countries wailed about it but many (including the US) were glad the Israelis did it.
And North Korea's assets must be taken out on same day. It is maddness to let either one of these two regimes continue their development.
Also we do not want the MSM's talking about this till after election.
<< Thank GOD - NOT al lah, for Israel. >>
What's al lah?
There will be NO iranian bomb.
Bet your life on it!
You are assuming that they are rational, like the USSR.
They're not and have given evidence for that in their pronouncements that they intend to take out Israel when the the stuff is cooked.
I think they truly believe that Allah Wills It.
I don't think Isreal is going to wait for us - unless we pressure them to wait.
Kind of a Michael Corleone moment, eh ?
This must happen before that. I'm certain that Israel is not going to wait for them to launch a nuclear strike though. The anti-Israeli war will always find an excuse to increase hatred for Israel, so it's a no-win situation anyway. There's some sort of a false peace before the "big one".
Ah, well. Steady hands, airman ... steady nerves....
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OH OH Something is up stupid elite media is sleep
I'm not denying the need for the program to be halted. Iran has a wealth of more conventional means to generate electricity without nuclear power.
Well stated, from where I sit.
Why pi$$ around with a Flivver when you can have a Ferrari?
Actually, the Iranians and the Chinese have been buddies for a long time, with silkworm missles among the technologies exchanged.
With some NEST data hard drives disappearing from Los Alamos, and Wen Ho Li and others funneling such data to the Chinese (Clinton Administration), it wouldn't surprise me if they were eyeing the construction of anything right up to the W88.
Add a small complement of Kilo Class subs and an agreement with Mozambique for port/maintenance facilities that dates back to the 1990's and you have a serious potential threat.
A thermonuclear warhead, loaded on a Kilo class sub with a crew of martyrs, inserted into a carrier group by laying doggo and letting the fleet run over top of their position, then detonated, could effectively eliminate a carrier group. (Kilo class subs can be extremely quiet, simply because the diesel electrics have no reactor coolant pumps to run. )
Similarly, with a warhead applied at the proper choke point navigation could be stoped, or this could be used to eliminate oil loading platforms, submarine pipelines, or virtually any imaginable facility with deepwater access, either in the middle east, or the rest of the world.
This is a credible and serious threat.
Despite a lot of bluster, they took Beslan pretty much lying down.
You seem to believe in the existence of 'moderate Islam'. I've heard a lot about it, but I find experimental proof lacking. There are a lot of Iranians who want to be able to import soft porn and shed the burqas. I'm not sure there are a lot who are willing to tolerate the existence of Israel or to argue when the local goons yell 'death to America'.
If Israel can do the job with precision-guided conventional munitions, I say, go for it. It would be more efficient with tactical nukes, which Israel certainly has, but probably the international wailing and gnashing of teeth would be best avoided.
Me, I don't think there's a majority Islamic state that should be allowed to have matchlocks, but one step at a time.
Thank you very much. I just hope that our estimates of when the Iranians will get nukes (if not stopped) are correct.
Yes, prayers for your Son on this holiest of Jewish observances!
For what it's worth . I have a good friend in NY City who is from Israel. He dad is , lets say , in a position of importance back in Israel. We talk politics when we meet and this guy in nYC is very bright and very well informed. Once in a rare while he'll tell em something with unshaking confidence . We were talking about Iran's nuke project . My friend smiled , pointed his finger at me and said "It will not happen " I replied that , yea, I wouldnt doubt that Israel dosen't try to .." Before I even finished the sentence he again smiled. "My friend , you're not looking at me..It will NOT happen, it is already in the works , come see me in a month and we'll celebrate the big smoking hole in the ground in Iran "..Only 3 times in 3 years has he ever gotten that cocky and sure with me about a mid east situation and all 3 times he called it dead on ..Just passing it on for what it's worth ..
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