Skip to comments.Electoral College Breakdown 2004, September 26th Update
Posted on 09/26/2004 7:19:48 PM PDT by Dales
Too many states have been updated since the last ECB article, due to a confluence of my work requirements, the flood, and polling companies putting out updates left and right. Every single state has been updated since I last wrote, so you should visit my site and examine each state to see the newest polls. As of right now, the President leads in the electoral vote count according to the ECb 246-181; with tossups factored in it balloons to 291-238. By comparison, when we go just by the polls it becomes 253-175 (292-221 with tossups), or 253-265 if Zogby's internet-based polls are not considered. The President has a 2.7% lead in the popular vote according to my calculated national result.
|Effective National Popular Results: Bush 47.7, Kerry 45.0%%|
|Kerry States||Battleground States||Bush States|
* Indicates a Registered Voter poll as opposed to a Likely Voter poll.
*R Indicates a partisan Republican poll. *D Inidcates a partisan Democrat poll.
** Indicates a poll of either adults or residents.
Sorry for vanishing for a bit ping.
It ain't gonna be the debates
It will be how much voter fraud the GOP has to overcome
GOP should have been heading this off months if not years ago
Curious why NJ is not in the toss up column and heard on local news that the spread in NY is narrowing and no longer in the double digit realm.
I'll take it. I'm not to sure about Iowa but, otherwise, this looks to me like how it will shake out, barring any major events.
Last I saw MD was tied and NJ was in play.
As for the states you have for leaning toward Bush, Kerry has withdrawn ads from most of them conceding them.
Hon....that's okay. But we missed you!
Glad you're back!
GEORGE W. BUSH 2004!!!!!
Bush is going to win at least 55% on Election Day. He'll outdo his father by two percentage points.
Here's betting Arkansas will move to Lean. ARG has Bush +3 in Arkansas, EVEN in Wisconsin, and by all indications from the campaigns they see Bush stronger in Arkansas than Wisconsin as well. Of course ARG is crap but still.
I think that the states that are slight advantage Kerry, and the states that are slight advantage Bush, and the states that are tossup, are equally likely to go to either candidate.
Thanks for your work.
I am hoping all the light colors end up deep blue on Nov.3
Thank you Mr. Dale Good Work
Excellent work as usual. Thanks for the ping.
When I read it you did have a typo with Dukakis in 1998 rather than 1988.
I guess the reason Kerry wants to support the UN is so voters in Cuba and the Bahamas and other non-US locations such as Mozambique can vote for him.
Have to see what last second dirty trick the Dems play on Bush this time. I think Bush will win much more comfortably this time around, and frankly he'll do fine in the debates against Kerry. We still have to be worried about the massive vote fraud the Dems are going to attempt throughout the country. I'm concerned mostly about the voter registration drives they're conducting in Ohio and Florida. The problem with our side is that our leaders don't realize that the left will stop at nothing to win this election at any cost. Stealing votes is not beneath them. They'll do it anytime and anywhere if it means retaining their governmental power. Our guys have to take off their white gloves and play politics as the bareknuckled, fight- all-out game that it is. The Dems understand that, but the GOP doesn't.
Finally...I thought you'd been kidnapped by aliens.
What happened to Illinois? I thought that state was in play if not Bush leading by a few points.
bush could have squashed voter fraud in wisconsin by leaving tommy thompson governor there instead of picking him for HHS secretary.
Bush's appointments to cabinet positions and judgeships sometimes defy common sense.
Illinois is in meltdown, thanks to a dreadful state party. If Dubya carries it, it will be a miracle (otherwise I say he loses it by maybe 5 points). I think W has a better chance of carrying Michigan.
Could you please add me to your ping list? Also, in your MI box you have the numbers switched on one poll; it should be K53-B42. Not trying to nitpick, but just so no one gets confused.
I should have noted in this article, that the ECB done right after the first debate in 2000 (which would also be before any state polls done after any of the debates had occurred) showed Bush ahead 223-211, and ahead by 1% in the popular vote; those results, I believe, fit in well with the thesis of this article. Where we are at today is very likely where the election will end up.
Oh, THANK you! I felt like I was starving for your analysis... every time new poll numbers came out, all I could think was, "Yeah, but what would Dales say about it???" :-)
BTW, did you see that you have a spectacular Weblog ranking?
36) Daly Thoughts & Dales' Electoral College Breakdown 2004 12673 visits/day (3127)
I saw (well, I see, I track it every day). 36 is actually bad. Most days in the past two weeks I have been about 31-32.
IAWI. That's the key. Iowa and Wisconsin flipping their 17 Electoral Gore votes to Bush. Everything else stays the same as 2000. That's how I see it.
Oh Well...as long as they were gentle. Did I mention how much I appreciate your work on these threads? Thanks!
I'd say 36 is still spectacular given the thousands of weblogs out there :-)
Your traffic probably only went down briefly because of the Rathergate episode, too... folks have been concentrating on Powerline and LGF lately. I'm sure your traffic level will skyrocket as we get closer to November 2cnd... as well as your email level from panicking fans pestering you for your next updates ;-)
The one who is really going to pay for this failure is not W, who will probably win anyway, but rather the nominee in 2008.
Superb work as usual. Until tonight, I never know that there was little or no historical evidence to support the urban myth that debates materially affect Presidential campaigns -- with the 1980 exception, of course. Actually, my belief is that debates tend to consolidate support for each candidate, and change very few minds.
GOP "leaders" would rather lose than be called "racists."
When it comes to voter fraud, that's really what our problem is.
One thing we can do on the ground, however, is tell our volunteers about how much fraud we suspect there is -- that the only way they can do something about it is to make up for it by working hard on the campaign.
Am I on your ping list? If not please add me.
This is strictly anecdotal evidence, but my family and I just spent five days in southern WI - Milwaukee area, Madison, Kenosha, Racine... We kept a running total of Bush/Cheney vs. Kerry/Edwards yard signs and bumper stickers (not counting the one on our rental car). :-)
Bumper stickers: Bush/Cheney - 43, Kerry-Edwards - 19
Yard signs: Bush/Cheney - 102, Kerry-Edwards - 45
The area of WI that we spent our time in was not IMHO the most conservative part of the state. I'd say President Bush is well positioned to take back this Gore state.
And if this perceived level of excitement, via stickers/signs, for both tickets accurately reflects WI voter sentiment, Mr. Feingold may well find himself unemployed.
Overlay the maps from about four years ago with this one.
Not a bad idea, actually.
My point is, look how much the map changed in '00 in the last six weeks. And it even tilted much more strongly to Bush temporarily back then before he finally eked it out. Bush looked good, then he looked a lock, then he took it by less than hair.
There's room for a TON of wobble in the current map.
No argument from me.
I voted you "number 1 with a bullet" (if you know what that old urban-machine-election saying means) in the Washington Post poll.
27+4+10=41, not 40, which is what you show in "tossup" on your site.
Thank you, Dales, for your hard work.
Congrats - You were almost dead on.....(WI)
Is your web site still in business? I lost the link.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.