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Electoral College Breakdown 2004, September 26th Update
Daly Thoughts and Dales' ECB2004 ^ | 9/26/04 | Gerry Daly

Posted on 09/26/2004 7:19:48 PM PDT by Dales

I Wouldn't Touch It With a 10 Foot Poll

Debating The Impact

The fable of the first Presidential debate is well known. Richard Nixon was known as highly intelligent, determined, and both experienced and skilled in the art of debate. His opponent, the young and dynamic John F. Kennedy, understood the medium better. Nixon showed up weary, and foolishly did not use makeup. Kennedy was tanned and rested, and had his presentation professionally attended. The cameras made Kennedy look even better, while the sweating and pale Nixon came across sickly and nervous.

According to the fable, those who heard the debate on radio declared that Nixon had gotten the upper hand. Those who watched on television, however, came away with a completely different impression. And as Erika Tyner Allen writes, "At election time, more than half of all voters reported that the Great Debates had influenced their opinion; 6% reported that their vote was the result of the debates alone." Given this, it would be easy for one to conclude that the first set of Presidential debates greatly impacted the 1960 election.

But while people probably, for the most part, do answer poll questions truthfully to the best of their perceptions, people also do sometimes remember things wrong, or otherwise end up answering in misleading manners. The entire race for President in 1960 had been fought tooth and nail. First one candidate, and then the other, opened up a 4-5 point lead with their convention. Heading into the debates, the race as measured by Gallup was a tie. Three straight polls, taken from early August through the middle of September showed the race either exactly even or within a single point. The actual results on election day were just as close; Kennedy took home 0.17% more of the popular vote. If 6% decided their vote on the debates alone, they must have done so half for each candidate; and if more than half of all voters had ther decision greatly influenced by the debates, they must also have come down on both sides in nearly even proportions.

The fable says the debates won the race for Kennedy. The polls showed him opening up a slight lead after the debates, but that the change did not hold. Further, the change in the poll numbers was small enough (and the number of polls taken and released so small) that it could very well have been nothing more than random sampling variance. It is an unpopular perspective, but despite the fact that people said the debates influenced their votes in 1960 greatly, the Gallup poll gives little credence to the idea that they actually did.

There is a conventional wisdom storyline for the next election that involved a Presidential debate. The year this time was 1976, and President Gerald Ford was in a world of trouble. Much of the nation was angry at his party over the Watergate scandal. Further, Mr. Ford had exascerbated the matter by pardoning President Richard Nixon. He had managed, despite being perhaps the most accomplished athlete to ever hold our nation's highest office, to be considered to be a bumbling klutz. His opponent was a charismatic southerner with populist roots, being a peanut farmer, and a smile so big that charicatures could not do it justice. It got so bad that after the Democratic convention, Ford trailed in the Gallup poll by the incomprehensible margin of 62%-29%. But deftly using the powers of the incumbency and having a successful convention of his own, he clawed back into the race and headed into the debates trailing Mr. Carter by just two points in the Gallup poll taken just before their single debate. In the debate, however, Mr. Ford made a gaffe that cost him dearly, wherein he claimed that Poland and eastern Europe were not under Soviet domination. His campaign never recovered, and he went on to defeat.

While the Gallup polls taken after the debate did show Carter increasing the lead from two points to six points following the debates, the fact is that once again the movement was slight enough that it is very possible that there was no actual movement and that instead there was the normal fluctuations that occur due to the margin of error. Going into the debates, Mr. Carter led Mr. Ford by 2%. On election day, Mr. Carter won the election by 2% of the popular vote.

October 28th, 1980, was the day that President Carter's hopes for re-election died, according to the script. Ronald Reagan came across as competent, confident, and folksy. Carter came across as convoluted, with his daugher Amy being a key advisor on nuclear proliferation. The race, which had been close, suddenly opened up into a rout.

In this instance, the poll numbers do show a similar story, although there is a bit of information to be gleaned. The race had been tied through August, but then Mr. Carter had moved ahead, by eight points in the Gallup survey conducted prior to the debate. The poll taken afterwards, just before the election, showed that Mr. Reagan had taken a 3 point lead, 47-44. The actual tally on election day was Reagan 51, Carter 41.

The storyline in 1984 was of two debates. During the first, challenger Walter Mondale ate President Reagan's lunch, with the aging President coming across as slow witted and, perhaps, too old. In the second debate, Mr. Reagan turned the tide with a single quip, about how he would not use his opponent's "youth and inexperience against him." The election was a landslide, and close to an electoral sweep. The polls did not show the drama that the storyline indicates, however. Before the debates, Reagan led 58-38. In the Gallup poll taken in between the two debates, his support level had dropped all of two points. He won, 59-41.

Perhaps it is because they happen only every four years, with so much time afterwards for post mortems to be written, that the debates have spawned such enduring storylines. In 1998, it was the embattled encumbent who benefitted from his opponent revealing to the world, in an emotionless answer to a hypothetical question about the rape of his wife, that he may be too robotic for the job. People could never warm to a man who could not warm up his fire against the thought of his wife being raped. Dukakis faded, to where he is not even mentioned in the Presidential campaign of his Lt. Governor.

Here is what the polls showed. Coming out of the Republican convention, then Vice-President Bush had forged ahead, pulling in between 48% and 49% in two iterations of the Gallup poll. His lead varied between 4 and 8 points, which is well within the variance one might anticipate from the margin of error. By the time the debates were over, he had greatly improved his standing, with the last pre-election poll giving him 56% of the vote. On election day he took home 53% to Dukakis' 46%. That seven point margin is suspiciously similar to the 4-8 point lead he had going into the debates.

In 1992, heading into the debates Bill Clinton led President Bush 47%-34%. A glance at the watch cost President Bush so dearly that on election day the results were 43%-37%. In 1996, President Clinton showed himself to be far above Senator Dole in the art of Presidential debates; but the race had been about a 9 point race beforehand and on election day it ended up being a nine point race. In 2000, conventional wisdom suggests that Vice President Gore lost badly to now-President George Bush. For more than a week heading into the debates, Gallup's tracking poll had shown the race either tied or oscillating around a tie. The election ended up, essentially, a tie.

In each of these elections, there has been a clear winner in the debates. Yet in every case except 1980, the debates did not change the race. Where things were heading into the debates was where things ended up. In an earlier article, I mentioned how in Presidential races, the undecideds tend to break for the party in power, with the only meaningful exception being with Ronald Reagan in 1980, where not only the undecideds broke his way but also a good portion of the previously decideds. If the past is prologue, then unless Senator Kerry or President Bush manage to pull off a Reaganesque performance, then on election day the race is going to be where it is today.


Too many states have been updated since the last ECB article, due to a confluence of my work requirements, the flood, and polling companies putting out updates left and right. Every single state has been updated since I last wrote, so you should visit my site and examine each state to see the newest polls. As of right now, the President leads in the electoral vote count according to the ECb 246-181; with tossups factored in it balloons to 291-238. By comparison, when we go just by the polls it becomes 253-175 (292-221 with tossups), or 253-265 if Zogby's internet-based polls are not considered. The President has a 2.7% lead in the popular vote according to my calculated national result.


Effective National Popular Results: Bush 47.7, Kerry 45.0%%
Kerry Bush
Safe Strong Lean Slight Tossup Slight Lean Strong Safe
DC (3)
K78-B11
9/13/04
CT (7)
K45-B38*
8/17/04
DE (3)
K50-B41
9/15/04
MN (10)
K49-B45*R
B46-K44
B45-K45
9/14/04
NM (5)
K49-B44
9/16/04
AR (6)
B48-K45
9/17/04
NC (15)
B49-K44
9/16/04
LA (9)
B53-K36
9/2/04
ND (3)
B62-K33
9/10/04
MA (12)
K64-B27
9/13/04
VT (3)
K50-B40
9/12/04
MD (10)
K48-B48
9/19/04
NJ (15)
B48-K48
9/19/04
NH (4)
B47-K45
9/17/04
WV (5)
B51-K45
9/20/04
MO (11)
B50-K44
9/19/04
SD (3)
B58-K39
9/12/04
ID (4)
B59-K30
9/10/04
RI (4)
K55-B37
9/20/04
HI (4)
K51-B41
9/11/04*
MI (17)
K46-B44
B52-K42
9/22/04
OR (7)
K51-B43
B48-K47
9/21/04
- FL (27)
B49-K46
9/22/04
WI (10)
B52-K38*
9/21/04
KY (8)
B53-K38
9/15/04
WY (3)
B65-K29
9/11/04
- IL (21)
K54-B39
K49-B43
9/16/04
WA (11)
K47-B45*R
9/22/04
PA (21)
K49-B46
9/22/04
- IA (7)
B48-K45
B50-K46
9/22/04
NV (5)
B52-K43
B47-K45
9/21/04
AL (9)
B54-K40
9/16/04
AK (3)
B57-K30
9/11/04
- CA (55)
K48-B43*R
9/22/04
- ME (4)
K45-B42
9/23/04
- - TN (11)
B55-K41
9/22/04
MS (6)
B51-K42
9/17/04
NE (5)
B61-K30
9/12/04
- NY (31)
K51-B31
9/23/04
- - - - OH (20)
B48-K44
9/22/04
SC (8)
B58-K38
9/21/04
UT (5)
B64-K27
9/13/04
- - - - - - VA (13)
B53-K42
9/23/04
AZ (10)
B54-K43
9/23/04
GA (15)
B58-K38R
9/15/04
- - - - - - CO (9)
B52-K44
9/23/04
- KS (6)
B57-K35
9/18/04
- - - - - - - - IN (11)
B54-K39
9/20/04
- - - - - - - - TX (34)
B58-K37
9/21/04
- - - - - - - - OK (7)
B64-K33
9/22/04
- - - - - - - - MT (3)
B54-K36
9/22/04
Totals

Kerry States Battleground States Bush States
19 121 41 57 9 45 104 43 99
181 111 246

* Indicates a Registered Voter poll as opposed to a Likely Voter poll.
*R Indicates a partisan Republican poll. *D Inidcates a partisan Democrat poll.
** Indicates a poll of either adults or residents.

Discuss ECB2004 On Free Republic



TOPICS: Front Page News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: dales; ecb; ecb2004; electoralcollege
Shortly I will have added polls for Pennsylvania (hat tip, Black Razor), Iowa, and Minnesota.
1 posted on 09/26/2004 7:19:49 PM PDT by Dales
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To: Coop; The G Man; nevergiveup; scan58; AuH2ORepublican; BoomerBob; Galatians513; onyx; KJacob; ...

Sorry for vanishing for a bit ping.


2 posted on 09/26/2004 7:20:37 PM PDT by Dales
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To: Dales

It ain't gonna be the debates

It will be how much voter fraud the GOP has to overcome

GOP should have been heading this off months if not years ago


3 posted on 09/26/2004 7:26:29 PM PDT by uncbob
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To: Dales

Curious why NJ is not in the toss up column and heard on local news that the spread in NY is narrowing and no longer in the double digit realm.


4 posted on 09/26/2004 7:26:31 PM PDT by StarFan
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To: Dales

I'll take it. I'm not to sure about Iowa but, otherwise, this looks to me like how it will shake out, barring any major events.


5 posted on 09/26/2004 7:27:28 PM PDT by Tall_Texan (Let's REALLY Split The Country! (http://righteverytime3.blogspot.com))
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To: Dales

Last I saw MD was tied and NJ was in play.
As for the states you have for leaning toward Bush, Kerry has withdrawn ads from most of them conceding them.


6 posted on 09/26/2004 7:28:18 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration
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To: Dales

Hon....that's okay. But we missed you!
Glad you're back!
GEORGE W. BUSH 2004!!!!!

BUSH/CHENEY 2004!


7 posted on 09/26/2004 7:28:57 PM PDT by LadyPilgrim (Sealed my pardon with His blood, Hallelujah!!! What a Savior!!!)
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To: Dales

Bush is going to win at least 55% on Election Day. He'll outdo his father by two percentage points.


8 posted on 09/26/2004 7:30:38 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives On In My Heart Forever)
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To: Dales

Here's betting Arkansas will move to Lean. ARG has Bush +3 in Arkansas, EVEN in Wisconsin, and by all indications from the campaigns they see Bush stronger in Arkansas than Wisconsin as well. Of course ARG is crap but still.


9 posted on 09/26/2004 7:31:41 PM PDT by JohnnyZ ("The common man doesn't look at me as some rich witch." --Teresa Heinz Kerry)
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To: StarFan
"Slight advantage" in my nomenclature is, basically, a tossup (just one where someone has been coming out very slightly ahead in most recent polls).

I think that the states that are slight advantage Kerry, and the states that are slight advantage Bush, and the states that are tossup, are equally likely to go to either candidate.

10 posted on 09/26/2004 7:32:35 PM PDT by Dales
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To: Dales

Thanks for your work.

I am hoping all the light colors end up deep blue on Nov.3


11 posted on 09/26/2004 7:32:52 PM PDT by AFPhys ((.Praying for President Bush, our troops, their families, and all my American neighbors..))
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To: Dales

Thank you Mr. Dale Good Work


12 posted on 09/26/2004 7:32:57 PM PDT by ThreeYearLurker
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To: Dales

Excellent work as usual. Thanks for the ping.

When I read it you did have a typo with Dukakis in 1998 rather than 1988.


13 posted on 09/26/2004 7:38:28 PM PDT by JLS
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To: Dales

I guess the reason Kerry wants to support the UN is so voters in Cuba and the Bahamas and other non-US locations such as Mozambique can vote for him.


14 posted on 09/26/2004 7:44:03 PM PDT by Lunkhead_01
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To: Dales

Have to see what last second dirty trick the Dems play on Bush this time. I think Bush will win much more comfortably this time around, and frankly he'll do fine in the debates against Kerry. We still have to be worried about the massive vote fraud the Dems are going to attempt throughout the country. I'm concerned mostly about the voter registration drives they're conducting in Ohio and Florida. The problem with our side is that our leaders don't realize that the left will stop at nothing to win this election at any cost. Stealing votes is not beneath them. They'll do it anytime and anywhere if it means retaining their governmental power. Our guys have to take off their white gloves and play politics as the bareknuckled, fight- all-out game that it is. The Dems understand that, but the GOP doesn't.


15 posted on 09/26/2004 7:49:08 PM PDT by midftfan
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To: Dales

Finally...I thought you'd been kidnapped by aliens.


16 posted on 09/26/2004 7:49:13 PM PDT by pgkdan
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To: Dales

What happened to Illinois? I thought that state was in play if not Bush leading by a few points.


17 posted on 09/26/2004 7:50:04 PM PDT by cocopopcrazy
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To: uncbob

bush could have squashed voter fraud in wisconsin by leaving tommy thompson governor there instead of picking him for HHS secretary.

Bush's appointments to cabinet positions and judgeships sometimes defy common sense.


18 posted on 09/26/2004 7:51:25 PM PDT by flashbunny (How do you tell which polls are right? Simple. Just look at how the Kerry campaign is acting.)
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To: cocopopcrazy

Illinois is in meltdown, thanks to a dreadful state party. If Dubya carries it, it will be a miracle (otherwise I say he loses it by maybe 5 points). I think W has a better chance of carrying Michigan.


19 posted on 09/26/2004 7:59:05 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (*This Just In ~ Dan Rather's Penis Is A Forgery, Film At 11*)
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To: cocopopcrazy
You can click on the state link to see what the polls have said. I have yet to see any Illinois polls showing Bush ahead. A few showed it close, but others not so close.
20 posted on 09/26/2004 8:00:04 PM PDT by Dales
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To: Dales

Could you please add me to your ping list? Also, in your MI box you have the numbers switched on one poll; it should be K53-B42. Not trying to nitpick, but just so no one gets confused.


21 posted on 09/26/2004 8:01:49 PM PDT by CSM43 (President Bush, I'm standing with you!)
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To: pgkdan
Maybe I was. But they were gentle...

I should have noted in this article, that the ECB done right after the first debate in 2000 (which would also be before any state polls done after any of the debates had occurred) showed Bush ahead 223-211, and ahead by 1% in the popular vote; those results, I believe, fit in well with the thesis of this article. Where we are at today is very likely where the election will end up.

22 posted on 09/26/2004 8:03:35 PM PDT by Dales
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To: fieldmarshaldj
Oh yeah. I forgot about the Jack Ryan mumbo jumbo. Let's pray for Michigan.
23 posted on 09/26/2004 8:11:44 PM PDT by cocopopcrazy
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To: uncbob

Agreed.


24 posted on 09/26/2004 8:21:52 PM PDT by dr_who_2
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To: Dales

Oh, THANK you! I felt like I was starving for your analysis... every time new poll numbers came out, all I could think was, "Yeah, but what would Dales say about it???" :-)



BTW, did you see that you have a spectacular Weblog ranking?

36) Daly Thoughts & Dales' Electoral College Breakdown 2004 12673 visits/day (3127)

http://www.truthlaidbear.com/TrafficRanking.php




25 posted on 09/26/2004 8:36:33 PM PDT by Tamzee (Ted Koppel --- "....the media will need a stepstool to rise to the level of used car salesmen.")
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To: Tamsey

I saw (well, I see, I track it every day). 36 is actually bad. Most days in the past two weeks I have been about 31-32.


26 posted on 09/26/2004 8:38:05 PM PDT by Dales
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To: Dales

IAWI. That's the key. Iowa and Wisconsin flipping their 17 Electoral Gore votes to Bush. Everything else stays the same as 2000. That's how I see it.


27 posted on 09/26/2004 8:44:08 PM PDT by fhayek
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To: Dales
Maybe I was. But they were gentle...

Oh Well...as long as they were gentle. Did I mention how much I appreciate your work on these threads? Thanks!

28 posted on 09/26/2004 8:56:50 PM PDT by pgkdan
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To: Dales

I'd say 36 is still spectacular given the thousands of weblogs out there :-)

Your traffic probably only went down briefly because of the Rathergate episode, too... folks have been concentrating on Powerline and LGF lately. I'm sure your traffic level will skyrocket as we get closer to November 2cnd... as well as your email level from panicking fans pestering you for your next updates ;-)


29 posted on 09/26/2004 8:59:39 PM PDT by Tamzee (Ted Koppel --- "....the media will need a stepstool to rise to the level of used car salesmen.")
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To: uncbob
The GOP has apparently made a conscious decision not to combat voter fraud, and thereby to spot the Dems a few points in numerous states. Inexplicable, unless they have such an stealthy and effective anti-fraud campaign that even the Dems haven't noticed that it is happening. Somehow I doubt this.

The one who is really going to pay for this failure is not W, who will probably win anyway, but rather the nominee in 2008.

30 posted on 09/26/2004 9:03:42 PM PDT by Agrarian (The 2nd most important race of the year is in SD-- but Coburn in OK is where money now needs to go)
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To: Dales

Superb work as usual. Until tonight, I never know that there was little or no historical evidence to support the urban myth that debates materially affect Presidential campaigns -- with the 1980 exception, of course. Actually, my belief is that debates tend to consolidate support for each candidate, and change very few minds.


31 posted on 09/26/2004 9:43:43 PM PDT by kesg
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To: Agrarian

GOP "leaders" would rather lose than be called "racists."
When it comes to voter fraud, that's really what our problem is.

One thing we can do on the ground, however, is tell our volunteers about how much fraud we suspect there is -- that the only way they can do something about it is to make up for it by working hard on the campaign.


32 posted on 09/27/2004 1:22:58 AM PDT by California Patriot (California Patriot)
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To: Dales

Am I on your ping list? If not please add me.

Great work!


33 posted on 09/27/2004 1:29:32 AM PDT by Jet Jaguar (Who would the terrorists vote for?)
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To: Dales; AuH2ORepublican; deport; Indy Pendance; JeanS; LS; LdSentinal; BlackRazor
Good stuff as always, Dales. I see WI is now in the Leaning Bush category. I concur.

This is strictly anecdotal evidence, but my family and I just spent five days in southern WI - Milwaukee area, Madison, Kenosha, Racine... We kept a running total of Bush/Cheney vs. Kerry/Edwards yard signs and bumper stickers (not counting the one on our rental car). :-)

Final totals:

Bumper stickers: Bush/Cheney - 43, Kerry-Edwards - 19

Yard signs: Bush/Cheney - 102, Kerry-Edwards - 45

The area of WI that we spent our time in was not IMHO the most conservative part of the state. I'd say President Bush is well positioned to take back this Gore state.

And if this perceived level of excitement, via stickers/signs, for both tickets accurately reflects WI voter sentiment, Mr. Feingold may well find himself unemployed.

34 posted on 09/28/2004 5:48:16 AM PDT by Coop (In memory of a true hero - Pat Tillman)
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To: Dales
Just a gentle reminder.

Overlay the maps from about four years ago with this one.

:^{)

35 posted on 09/29/2004 8:48:29 AM PDT by jack gillis
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To: jack gillis

Not a bad idea, actually.


36 posted on 09/29/2004 9:08:26 AM PDT by Dales
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To: jack gillis
Here you go!
37 posted on 09/29/2004 9:53:22 AM PDT by Dales
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To: Dales

Excellent.

My point is, look how much the map changed in '00 in the last six weeks. And it even tilted much more strongly to Bush temporarily back then before he finally eked it out. Bush looked good, then he looked a lock, then he took it by less than hair.

There's room for a TON of wobble in the current map.


38 posted on 09/29/2004 1:25:31 PM PDT by jack gillis
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To: jack gillis

No argument from me.


39 posted on 09/29/2004 6:15:19 PM PDT by Dales
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To: Dales

I voted you "number 1 with a bullet" (if you know what that old urban-machine-election saying means) in the Washington Post poll.


40 posted on 09/30/2004 5:30:33 AM PDT by jack gillis
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To: Dales

Hey Dales,

27+4+10=41, not 40, which is what you show in "tossup" on your site.


41 posted on 10/24/2004 10:29:42 AM PDT by lepton ("It is useless to attempt to reason a man out of a thing he was never reasoned into"--Jonathan Swift)
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To: Dales

Thank you, Dales, for your hard work.


42 posted on 10/28/2004 4:31:59 PM PDT by miltonim (Fight those who do not believe in Allah. - Koran, Surah IX: 29)
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To: Dales

Congrats - You were almost dead on.....(WI)


43 posted on 11/03/2004 3:12:18 AM PST by The Raven
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To: Dales

Is your web site still in business? I lost the link.


44 posted on 11/02/2006 3:21:07 PM PST by bertmerc1
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