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Geopolitical Diary: Monday, Sept. 27, 2004
STRATFOR ^ | September 27, 2004

Posted on 09/26/2004 8:53:07 PM PDT by Axion

U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell acknowledged Sept. 26 that the security situation in Iraq is worsening, but said that a military offensive is under way to help stabilize the situation. Powell said coalition forces would enter areas in the so-called Sunni Triangle and bring them back under government control during the coming months. He added, "Now it remains to be seen how successful we will be, but right now we are moving to have elections at the end of January of 2005."

Like Powell, Gen. John Abizaid, commander of U.S. troops in the Middle East, also made the Sunday press circuit. Abizaid said elections in Iraq might not come off perfectly, noting, "If I recall, looking back at our own election four years ago, it wasn't perfect either," but adding that coalition forces would fight through elections.

Powell and Abizaid are the latest administration officials to weigh in on the worsening situation in Iraq and the possibility of elections there. Earlier in the week, U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld said it didn't matter whether elections in Iraq were perfect or if they were held in every part of the country, so long as some elections occurred. U.S. Undersecretary of State Richard Armitage, however, said that elections should be held throughout the country.

Though it is indisputable that a security problem exists in Iraq, few U.S. leaders seem to agree on when, how or whether elections will be held -- something that certainly could not be assured for January, no matter what good intentions or military offensives there might be.

Perhaps more interesting was the explanation Powell proffered for the uptick in violence in Iraq: that jihadists are working overtime to block the Iraqi election.

Powell is only half right here: The uptick is about elections, but not the Iraqi elections. The foreign jihadists in Iraq see their position crumbling, their window of opportunity closing as various other interests in the country reach political compromises with one another and the United States. The jihadist offensive, which has yielded growing numbers of casualties for coalition and Iraqi security forces and among civilians, is an unsustainable offensive -- particularly if, as Abizaid claims, the jihadists number only around 1,000.

Because continuing the current high tempo of operations would rapidly drain the ranks of the jihadists, it seems their goal is not to disrupt the Iraqi elections -- else they would not have launched their offensive so far in advance. The election they are eyeing is in fact across the Atlantic, in the United States. If they can bring about a disaster for the United States in the next month, the jihadists posit, they could impact the presidential elections -- thus forcing a change in the general pace and direction of coalition operations in Iraq and the course of the political evolution in Baghdad.

If the jihadists cannot impact the U.S. election, however, an opportunity to disrupt the political gaming in Iraq is unlikely to materialize. For example, despite daily attacks against police recruiting stations, recruiting continues. And attempts to stir Sunni-Shiite clashes have achieved little. Even the Iraqi nationalist militants, who have been isolated from some of the political compromises, have little use for foreign jihadists.

From Washington's perspective, the issue of when, where or how Iraq holds elections will be infinitely less important in the days leading up to Nov. 2 presidential election in the United States than is ensuring that political deal-making continues in Iraq during the meantime. And that will mean keeping a lid on any potential Sunni or Shia offensives -- and a wedge between those groups and the foreign jihadists.


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: iraq; powell; stratfor

1 posted on 09/26/2004 8:53:07 PM PDT by Axion
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