Death Race 2004!!!
Posted on 09/28/2004 1:40:37 PM PDT by yonif
National Security Adviser Maj.-Gen. (res.) Giora Eiland was quoted Monday by the Maariv daily as saying Iran will reach the "point of no return" in its nuclear weapons program by November, rather than next year as Israeli military officials said earlier.
Concern about Tehran's nuclear development intensified last week when Iran's Vice President Reza Aghazadeh said Iran has started converting raw uranium into the gas needed for enrichment, an important step in making a nuclear bomb.
The declaration came in defiance of a resolution passed three days earlier by the Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN nuclear watchdog, demanding Iran freeze all uranium enrichment - including conversion. The group's 35-nation board of governors warned that Iran risked being taken before the UN Security Council, which could impose sanctions.
Iran denies it is developing nuclear weapons, saying its nuclear development program is aimed at generating electricity. Israel and other countries, including the United States, doubt that.
However, and contrary to expectations based on Israel's 1981 strike in Iraq, Israel would not be able to destroy Iran's nuclear installations with a single air strike because they are scattered or hidden and intelligence is weak, Israeli and foreign analysts say.
Israeli leaders have implied they might use force against Iran if international diplomatic efforts or the threat of sanctions fail to stop Iran from producing nuclear weapons.
Prime Minister Ariel Sharon said this month that Israel is "taking measures to defend itself" - a comment that raised concern that Israel is considering a pre-emptive strike along the lines of its 1981 bombing of an unfinished Iraqi nuclear reactor at Osirak near Baghdad.
Speculation has also been fueled by recent Israeli weapons acquisitions, including bunker-buster bombs and long-range fighter-bombers.
Recent Israeli weapons purchases could be crucial in a possible strike.
In February, Israel received the first of 102 American-built F-16I warplanes, the largest weapons deal in its history. Military sources say the planes were specially designed with extra fuel tanks to allow them to reach Iran.
In June, it signed a $319 million deal to acquire nearly 5,000 US-made smart bombs, including 500 "bunker busters" that can destroy six-foot concrete walls, such as those that might be found in Iranian nuclear facilities.
Military and strategic analysts in Israel and abroad say even with the new weaponry, Israel lacks the ability to carry out a successful strike against Iran's nuclear installations.
"You have to have solid intelligence, you have to know what to hit ... The intelligence on Iran is very weak," said Alex Vatanka, an expert on Iranian security issues at Jane's Sentinel Security Assessments in London.
Israeli strategic analyst Reuven Pedatzur pointed to a claim last year by Iranian opposition figures that foreign intelligence services have been unaware of two of the Iranian nuclear facilities.
"There is no good intelligence on Iran, and this is the proof," he said. "Any Israeli attack on Iran would cause huge political damage, and in the end, the program would proceed."
After Israel attacked the Osirak reactor in Iraq, it came in for worldwide criticism. Arab opposition to an Israeli strike against Iran - particularly if it appeared to be unprovoked - would likely be widespread and intense. It could lead to attacks against Israeli and Jewish institutions abroad and condemnations from the United Nations.
Other difficulties in attacking Iran's nuclear facilities include their dispersal throughout the country, their sophisticated defense systems and the likelihood that some of the installations have been replicated, said Cliff Kupchan, vice president of the Nixon Center in Washington, a former Clinton administration Iranian expert who met with Iranian officials during a visit there last year.
Kupchan said IAEA threats to impose sanctions on Iraq are unrealistic, because UN members, including those with fledging nuclear programs, such as Brazil, would be reluctant to back them.
Sanctions against Iranian oil production are also unlikely when world demand is about 80 million barrels per day, prices are sky-high, and the only surplus capacity - about two million barrels per day from Saudi Arabia - is heavy oil the market usually shuns. Iran exports about 2.6 million barrels per day.
Kupchan said if diplomacy fails, there may be no choice but for the United States to lead a concerted military campaign against Iran. "If the US moves aggressively, it won't be sanctions, it will be a coalition of the willing," he said.
Speaking at the United Nations last week, Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom appeared to back him up.
"The time has come to move the Iranian case to the Security Council in order to put an end to this nightmare," Shalom said.
The time has come to bomb the nuclear facility in Iran into dust. Evidently we don't have the luxury of waiting until Nov.2
Iran is moving crazily ahead during these months because of the election season in the US.
GULP, by NOV? I just heard Dubya say (last night on Mr. O's interview) that Iran will NOT have a nuke. The president was dead serious too. Those of you who watch our Dubya a lot KNOW that "look" he has when he means business.
By the way, part 2 of that interview is on tonight. I thought that the President was awesome in it last night. IF Dubya really means what he says about Iran, and Freedom, then I look to see something "happen" in Iran shortly.
I just hope that the innocent folks are kept safe there. I feel so bad for the Freedom Loving folks in Iran. Read the "Iran thread" posted on FR for today. It is incredible. This whole thing is about to blow sky high.
Hard one to call. Some form of action is needed, if indeed what we believe about Iran's intentions is true. Any U.N. support OF ANY CONSEQUENCE is not probable...just more passive hand waving and rhetorical BS, from that absolutely useless organization. So what will happen next? Hard to say, but I don't expect any strong action from the US until after Nov. 2nd...my guess at this point is that Israel would make the first move.
I honestly don't think that the US or Israel will do anything overt before November 3 unless Iran does something truly provocative. The mullahs are racing the clock...
What if (with precision strikes) we took out the leaders of Iran and Syria on the same day. What would the facists islamists do? Would they pull out of Iraq to head back to their home countries to try and influence the situations therein?
If a large percentage of those islamists in Iraq are from Iran and Syria, this might be a great solution to get them to leave. Making a cleanup operation much easier to achieve.
In my opinion.
Here is the question. You could do something to obstruct their pursuit of the nukes, and then destroy the nuclear program later on. Or you could destroy their nuclear program (infrastructure wise) in the first place. Which will it be....
"Those of you who watch our Dubya a lot KNOW that "look" he has when he means business. "
I saw that look!!! I wonder what's really going on. Do I see Magog on the horizon??
Iran denies it is developing nuclear weapons, saying its nuclear development program is aimed at generating electricity
Sure, a country with massive oil reserves needs a complex, massively expensive, hard to operate Nuclear facitlity for electricity generation instead of a cheap, easy to use oil burning plant! Pull the other one now why don't you Iran? Tell us how you don't give million of dollars in aid to Islamo-Faciscit terrorist groups.
Like nuke Tel Aviv?
Death Race 2004!!!
...OR Israel will do nothing and get wiped out by Iranian nukes in a couple of years. I wonder which one they'll do?
As if this isn't happening right now. Israel would have nothing to lose.
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