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WRAL Poll: Race For U.S. Senate Almost Dead Heat [Bowles 45, Burr 44]
WRAL ^ | 9/30/2004 | WRAL.com

Posted on 09/30/2004 5:07:47 PM PDT by JohnnyZ

U.S. Senate candidates Erskine Bowles and Richard Burr are in a full court press. Two months ago, a WRAL News poll gave Bowles a commanding 10 point lead. After the latest poll, new numbers show only one point separates the two candidates with 11 percent undecided.

(Excerpt) Read more at wral.com ...


TOPICS: Front Page News; Politics/Elections; US: North Carolina
KEYWORDS: 2004; burr; deadheat; electionussenate; kewl; northcarolina; poll; richardburr; senate2004
WRAL must be excerpted.
1 posted on 09/30/2004 5:07:48 PM PDT by JohnnyZ
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I'd like to take this opportunity to say

I TOLD YOU SO

to all the worry-warts and complainers who've been moaning about this race. Burr is probably 1-4 points back right now and will forge ahead in the next month.

2 posted on 09/30/2004 5:09:27 PM PDT by JohnnyZ ("Oh, who cares? You know, one state is not a whole state." --Teresa Heinz Kerry)
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To: JohnnyZ

Let's hope Bush can build a big enough lead to put in campaign stops for people like Burr and Coburn.


3 posted on 09/30/2004 5:11:20 PM PDT by ambrose (http://www.swiftvets.com)
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To: Victoria Delsoul

Good news from North Carolina ping.


4 posted on 09/30/2004 5:11:43 PM PDT by Alberta's Child (I made enough money to buy Miami -- but I pissed it away on the Alternative Minimum Tax.)
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To: JohnnyZ

After W cements his lead I'll bet he shows up to help win this and some other Senate seats just like he did in 2002.


5 posted on 09/30/2004 5:11:44 PM PDT by Mister Baredog ((Part of the Reagan legacy is to re-elect G.W. Bush))
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To: ambrose

Does anyone know how Thune is doing against the EVIL One?


6 posted on 09/30/2004 5:12:51 PM PDT by finallyatexan
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To: JohnnyZ

This would be absolutely heroic. Do you really think Bowles is over?


7 posted on 09/30/2004 5:13:31 PM PDT by babble-on
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To: 2ndMostConservativeBrdMember; Al B.; alancarp; AntiGuv; boomop1; Carolina; Carolinamom; ChadsDad; ..

Some good news.


8 posted on 09/30/2004 5:13:37 PM PDT by Howlin (What's the Font Spacing, Kenneth?)
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To: ambrose

The thing about these Mason-Dixon polls is that they weight them to reflect the party numbers:

52 percent Dems, 35 percent GOP, to reflect the registered voters in NC.


9 posted on 09/30/2004 5:15:35 PM PDT by Howlin (What's the Font Spacing, Kenneth?)
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To: babble-on
This would be absolutely heroic. Do you really think Bowles is over?

I think it'll be close ~ 5 points or less ~ but while I've maintained that Burr will win because of the fundamental nature of the race and the matchup, he is in better position than I'd thought.

10 posted on 09/30/2004 5:17:48 PM PDT by JohnnyZ ("Oh, who cares? You know, one state is not a whole state." --Teresa Heinz Kerry)
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To: JohnnyZ

That one would be huge!! What a waste for Bowles, he's been running non-stop for the senate for like half a decade now...

Dude, we dominate the South. The media want to prop up Bowles and Tenenbaum. Forget it. The South is ours.


11 posted on 09/30/2004 5:19:20 PM PDT by Gustafm1000
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To: Alberta's Child

Good news indeed...Burr will make a superior senator!


12 posted on 09/30/2004 5:19:49 PM PDT by Lurking2Long
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To: finallyatexan

Last poll I heard of had Daschle five points ahead.


13 posted on 09/30/2004 5:23:02 PM PDT by somerville
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To: Lurking2Long

That is really good news. I was afraid Burr was too far behind to close the gap. Hopefully this poll shows I was wrong.


14 posted on 09/30/2004 5:23:51 PM PDT by JackTom
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To: JohnnyZ

Great news, obviously. But weren't two polls released in the last week showing Bowles up by like 8%-10%? I'd like to see another poll showing the race this tight before I place Edwards' Senate seat in our corner. There was a poll about 10 days ago showing it tight, and the next two polls that came out sure rained on our parade.


15 posted on 09/30/2004 5:28:17 PM PDT by AuH2ORepublican (Extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice, moderation in the pursuit of justice is no virtue.)
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To: Alberta's Child
Thanks AC.

Bumpity bump!

16 posted on 09/30/2004 5:29:04 PM PDT by Victoria Delsoul (Kerry's total disregard for the troops' safety is of no consequence to him - Vietnam, and now Iraq)
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To: finallyatexan

The Sioux Falls Argosy-Misleader ran a poll last week that had Daschle up by five pts.

Another poll had Thune up by 3 pts.


17 posted on 09/30/2004 5:29:38 PM PDT by MplsSteve
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To: JohnnyZ

Kewl.


18 posted on 09/30/2004 5:30:25 PM PDT by ThreeYearLurker
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To: AuH2ORepublican

I agree.

I like the numbers on this poll too.

But I'll reserve judgement 'til I see another poll with similar or better numbers for Burr.


19 posted on 09/30/2004 5:31:00 PM PDT by MplsSteve
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To: JohnnyZ

My recollection is that Bowels started with a huge cash advantage over Burr, plus a better name recognition after his humiliating defeat by Liddy Dole.

Burr's TV and Radio campaign is in full gear now, glad to see the gap is closing.

One of the most popular bumper stickers in our area is a white oval with "BBB". (Bush, Burr and Ballentine (Gov))

Let's hope that between Burrs airtime and Bush's coattails we end up with two "R" Senators again in NC.


20 posted on 09/30/2004 5:32:19 PM PDT by TC Rider (The United States Constitution 1791. All Rights Reserved.)
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To: AuH2ORepublican
But weren't two polls released in the last week showing Bowles up by like 8%-10%?

Supposedly there a GOP-sponsored poll by POS that also shows 45-44 Bowles; it's listed on RealClearPolitics.

The SurveyUSA polls (showed +10 Bowles a few weeks ago but also showed Bush only +4) jump around a lot, as you know, and the Research2000 poll showed Bowles up 9 but Bush only up 6 and Ballantine trailing badly ~ seems like a Dem-friendly sample.

Mason-Dixon is the most accurate and shows Bush up 9%, which makes sense.

Also Burr sent out an email before this Mason-Dixon poll saying the race was 1-4 points in Bowles' favor.

21 posted on 09/30/2004 5:34:40 PM PDT by JohnnyZ ("Oh, who cares? You know, one state is not a whole state." --Teresa Heinz Kerry)
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To: somerville

That was the Argus poll and has always skewed left. Other polls show Thune with a +3 advantage. Look for W to land in Souix Falls around October 29th. Wanna bet?


22 posted on 09/30/2004 5:36:48 PM PDT by Kahuna
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To: Howlin
Wasn't Burr down by as much as 12 points just over a week ago?

There seems to be a massive shift to the GOP at all levels and in all races.

23 posted on 09/30/2004 5:43:18 PM PDT by Phantom Lord (Advantages are taken, not handed out)
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To: AuH2ORepublican
Burr just started running TV ads showing Boyles with "his old friend Clinton". Trust me that is a good strategy in the ole North State!

Luv' it!
24 posted on 09/30/2004 5:43:38 PM PDT by no1.tarhill
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To: Phantom Lord

I'm not sure.


25 posted on 09/30/2004 5:44:31 PM PDT by Howlin (What's the Font Spacing, Kenneth?)
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To: JohnnyZ

Interesting development. Negative ads to work well.


26 posted on 09/30/2004 5:47:16 PM PDT by Cableguy
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To: Kahuna
My gut feeling is that Thune is barely behind, but definitely has a shot.

This news about Burr closing the gap is HUGE; NC is the best chance the Dems have of holding one of their five Southern Senate seats except for Louisiana, which is basically unwinnable for Republicans because of the runoff rule. Florida will be a tough pickup, but is very doable. SC and GA are definite pickups. Problems for Republicans are OK, AK, the automatic loss here in IL, and CO. I think the turnout will save OK and CO, but AK is a state with a small population and a much smaller voting population. Polls in really small states tend to be quite accurate, and Murkowski is consistently behind in about all of them. The nepotism thing is KILLING the GOP in Republican-heavy Alaska.

I think Repubs lose IL and AK, pick-up SC, FL, GA, and one of SD/NC/LA. A net gain of +2 for the GOP. Makes the mid-term hard for the Dems, too, because they will need to pick-up +4 to gain control of the Senate again. Not likely.
27 posted on 09/30/2004 5:47:58 PM PDT by TitansAFC (Try to avoid the Yahoo! John F. Kerry for president campaign (read: "Yahoo! Election News"))
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To: Howlin; JohnnyZ
Good news, indeed.

The GOP ran 13% ahead of its national numbers in North Carolina in the Presidential elections of 1996 and 2000. With Edwards on the Dem ticket, it might be asking a bit much to match that performance, but a differential of 8 to 10% seems to me to be doable, and that could be enough to pull Burr in -- maybe Ballantine, too, in the gubernatorial race. Especially if that 8 to 10% differential is on top of a national margin of a few percentage points in President Bush's favor.

Coattails are important. Remember Ronald Reagan pulling John East (let's face it, a weak candidate) through in 1980; remember G.H.W. Bush, even as he lost his re-election bid, pulling Lauch Faircloth (another weak candidate) through in 1992. No GOP Senate candidate in North Carolina has lost in a Presidential election year since 1968.

28 posted on 09/30/2004 5:48:30 PM PDT by southernnorthcarolina (about as sensitive as a goddam toilet seat)
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To: Howlin

Thanks for some good news. If the President can get in here a time or two and make some appearances on Burr's behalf (and I'm sure he will) Burr stands to win this thing.


29 posted on 09/30/2004 5:50:56 PM PDT by TommyDale
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To: JohnnyZ

The Republicans are going to control the Congress and the White House. I don't know why North Carolina would want to be represented by a liberal Democrat. He'd spend all his time merely trying to block the Republicans. He'd not get anything done.


30 posted on 09/30/2004 5:57:45 PM PDT by Brilliant
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To: Brilliant

They probably haven't factored in the rats voter fraud
strategy. When you're dealing with scum you have to
work twice as hard to win.


31 posted on 09/30/2004 6:17:01 PM PDT by Cowgirl
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To: JohnnyZ

Great news. Where do I go to donate and send this election home?


32 posted on 09/30/2004 6:20:07 PM PDT by jimfree (Many times a donor this year.)
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To: JohnnyZ

Great news. Where do I go to donate and send this election home?


33 posted on 09/30/2004 6:20:16 PM PDT by jimfree (Many times a donor this year.)
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To: JohnnyZ

BURR *WILL* FORGE AHEAD.

Take it to the bank, my FRiend.


34 posted on 09/30/2004 6:31:48 PM PDT by Constitution Day (burrforsenate.com)
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To: jimfree
Great news. Where do I go to donate and send this election home?

Contribute to the Richard Burr Campaign

If you have any problems, please FRmail me.

35 posted on 09/30/2004 6:35:13 PM PDT by Constitution Day (burrforsenate.com)
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To: JohnnyZ; Clintonfatigued; fieldmarshaldj; zbigreddogz

Yahoo! Go Burr!


36 posted on 09/30/2004 6:41:22 PM PDT by Kuksool (Get Your Souls To The Polls In November)
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To: Kuksool

This is encouraging. But a few days ago, I saw a poll in USA Today which showed Bowles leading by 49% to 40%. I think that Bowles is still the slight favorite.


37 posted on 09/30/2004 8:19:00 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued
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To: Kuksool

This is encouraging. But a few days ago, I saw a poll in USA Today which showed Bowles leading by 49% to 40%. I think that Bowles is still the slight favorite.


38 posted on 09/30/2004 8:19:06 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued
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To: southernnorthcarolina

I think we could also add the mother of them all, the very popular Jim Hunt losing to Jesse Helms in the 1984 Reagan landslide. If Hunt couldn't do it, Bowles would have even less of a chance.


39 posted on 09/30/2004 10:17:28 PM PDT by Galactic Overlord-In-Chief (Kerry, you have low poll numbers but I have good news. I just saved hundreds by switching to Geico.)
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To: TaxRelief; Helms; 100%FEDUP; 2ndMostConservativeBrdMember; ~Vor~; A2J; a4drvr; Adder; Aegedius; ...

NC *Ping*

Please FRmail Constitution Day, TaxRelief OR Helms if you want to be added to or removed from this North Carolina ping list.
40 posted on 10/01/2004 5:31:33 AM PDT by Constitution Day (shut off the debatwe, get off this thread,and go szikt in a corfner ans suck your thumb.)
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To: JohnnyZ

I think as soon as Burr uses up the Clinton images he could pull ahead by throwing in Kerry, as Bush's numbers have been going up here. Bowles is trying as hard as he can not to mention he's a Democrat or Kerry's name.


41 posted on 10/01/2004 7:52:36 AM PDT by pangaea6
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To: JohnnyZ

YES. I've been saying it'll be OK too, but even I've been starting to doubt these past few weeks. I have a lot more confidence now though.

Go Burr go!


42 posted on 10/01/2004 8:57:34 AM PDT by zbigreddogz
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To: JohnnyZ

This Tarheel is confident Burr is gonna take it on election day.
Not so sure about Ballentine, though...


43 posted on 10/01/2004 9:29:36 AM PDT by HanneyBean
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