Posted on 10/04/2004 7:58:32 PM PDT by COURAGE
For those who said Bush did not lose the debate, look at the above graph. "But Bush won on substance!" you say. If the American people voted on substance, Clinton would not have been president!
Give Bush some caffine next debate. Go Cheney!
Heads up folks, and keep this in mind. It was not done purposely, but as of now Bush need not win the next debate, or really the one after that. Despite all efforts of the dems to avoid it, his expectations are lowered.
If he merely improves, that will be the story of the night. The talk will be of how the president was much improved over his previous performance.
"Kerry still seemed the better debater, but the president was certainly more on his game this time, don't you agree?"
That's all he needs. Improvement. Just like Reagan in '84. If you check Gallup you'll see Reagan lost all his debates, but in debate 1 he was so poor he seemed senile and there was much talk about this and concern in the populace. In #2, he was clear, told jokes and was his personable self, and though the polls said Mondale won the debate, it didn't matter. All fears in the populace were put to rest.
Bush need only do the same thing.
Not a pretty picture.
For those who think it matters much, look at the PEW, Rasmussen and other polls.
People may pause to consider Kerry due to his polished performance compared to Bush's sloppy one, but once they see what Kerry is offering...they don't buy. I don't see Kerry's surge even on THIS graph holding, if you notice the last "tick" down.
Please post a link. I admit it was 20 years ago, but my recollection is that Reagan thrashed Mondale in that second debate in the Gallup poll.
KERRY CHEATED in the 1st debate. That's going to come out.
Everybody -- keep hammering the GLOBAL TEST angle. I don't want muslims from Canada determining who and when we attack next.
If we keep hammering this, Bush can sleep through the next debate and cancel the last one on account of Kerry's CHEATING.
And if, god forbid, Kerry wins -- we contest the election all the way back to the supreme court, which, fortunately, we have some significant influence over... I know that sounds extreme, but Kerry will DESTROY OUR COUNTRY and deliver it into the hands of TERRORISTS>?>>
An average goes way down with even one low number in it - this one contains THREE highly suspect national polls - NewsWeak, CNN and cBS/NYT. Also, look at the battleground state poll link, things are good in the states.
I don't believe it.
Good thing for Bush this is an election, not a debating club. If the prize is an after debate skewed poll, then Kerry won the prize. If the real prize is winning the election, then it appears Bush will win the prize.
There are other things to hammer, too:
KERRY: I understand what the President is talking about, because I know what it means to lose people in combat. And the question, is it worth the cost, reminds me of my own thinking when I came back from fighting in that war, and it reminds me that it is vital for us not to confuse the war, ever with the warriors. That happened before.
Why is no one hitting THAT absolutely INCREDIBLE statement?
"...if you notice the last "tick" down."
Yes, that is a good point. You are right to point it out. Kerry is "ticking" down, even though W is not (yet) ticking up.
Let me say this, if the American people are so stupid that one debate can settle or shift an election, during war time, we are doomed.
Page the fed ex guys.
"Give Bush some caffine next debate."
President Bush spent the bulk of the day before the debate, being president, and visiting hurricane victims in Florida.
Unlike Kerry, who has stopped being a Senator and is a full time candidate. President Bush continues to be president.
I think it is time for the President's so-called supporters to stop bashing him. He is who he is. If you think being a great debater is important, then vote for Kerry. If you want a proven leader, vote for Bush. Meanwhile, stop the denigration of the president. However will intentioned it may be. You are unwittingly giving aid and comfort to the enemy.
The same site were you got your graph from has the following as of today.
RCP Electoral Count
Monday, October 4: Bush 291 - Kerry 200
I agree. Kerry will always win on style.
Some other observations. Many polls had the President with an obscene lead, i.e. Gallup. While I see the President having a 4-5% lead, I never will believe that he has a 13% lead. It didn't make sense unless of course you know how to read the MSM.
Bush was given a huge lead going into the debates. Voila, Kerry wins on style, no shock there, suddenly the polls show the President with a 4-5% lead. Thus, the MSM has been able to characterize what probably has been the lead all along as "Kerry momentum" or "Bush slippage."
Bush was never up 8 points to begin with. The polls are now more in line with reality.
I have no idea and no interest in what any Gallup poll said about Reagan/Mondale in 1984. There's enough analysis of this CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll out there now to raise at least a reasonable suspicion. NewsWeak has of course been thoroughly destroyed and the last one is incredible on its face.
Hehe, wouldn't you know Courage would post this now, before all the polls are in that are obviously trending towards Bush!
his voting record has proven that he continued to be AN ENEMY OF THE STATE by continually gutting the Military & Intelligency Services,
and by his comments in the debate where he again wants to strip America of a critical weapon in the War on Terror (Bunker Buster Bombs) whilst giving a mortal enemy the means to perpetuate greater terror (nuclear fuel);
JOHN F'N KERRY IS AN ENEMY OF THE STATE AND MUST BE STOPPED IN THE BALLOTS!!
Your recollection is correct. That is when Reagan said that he would not hold Mondale's youth and inexperience against him. Everybody laughed, and everybody was reminded why Reagan was well, Reagan. At that moment, the deal was sealed.
Did I not see a story here earlier (maybe based on "inside" information) that even Gallup way oversampled Dems (as Newsweek did) in this latest poll? I have to wonder if CBS didn't do the same.
I have been thinking that those flash polls overweighted to the D's were not only to hype a *surge*, but precisely to bring down the averages. They were doing that all summer, until W really did break out and they couldn't bring it down very much.
Knock the bogus polls out of the averages. RCP has already done that w/ARG and SUSA (although I suspect the SUSA was to be *fair and balanced*).
I believe Gallup had Reagan several points below Carter on October 15th, 1980. Then, voters' revulsion kicked in, in the voting booth ...
Bad polls figured into the average, Courage.
And, I'm frankly getting a bit tired of people stating Clinton proves the electorate is stupid. Clinton was a two term President. The only Democrat President since Carter while there have been three Republican presidents in that time span. Republicans control the Senate, House, and majority of Governor seats.
In '92, it was a three way race in which Clinton didn't even receive a majority. He campaigned more conservatively than he governed. In '96, Dole was a weak candidate and Clinton had Republican efforts in the other branches aiding the economy to campaign on.
It would seem, to me, that Republicans have been WINNING and I would give Republicans credit for many things, but style has generally not been one of them with the occasional exceptions.
Is there a "first debate pattern'? I recall that Gore supposedly won the first debate in 2000, and I think there are other examples of the "winner" (mostly a dem-biased construct) of the first debate losing the electiion.
I agree with your feeling, but I think any movement Kerry's gotten is because he's something new. Let's say Bush performed as everyone wanted him to--he's still the same thing we've had for four years. I've said this over and over, Bush was NEVER going to put Kerry away in the first debate (though I wish he'd jumped on so many opportunities). But Kerry has bungled so many opportunities to "introduce himself to the American public" that this was really the start of the RACE, so to speak.
IMHO...Kerry sprinted out ahead, but it's a jackrabbit start. Already he's back to the whining and bitching about "negativity". Kerry can't help himself, he's a nasty, passionless whineass liberal, and in the end people won't trust him.
Bush lost a point or two.. the big thing is that sKerry got a 3 point bump.
How long can he hold that bump.. and in a more positive way, dont tell me bush is going to keep that 2 point lost. Bush should get the momentum back.. but it is not guaranteed.. what the MSM is NOT talking about is that Bush pretty much stated the same.. sKerry, though, improved his image..
THAT is the story of the debate. I seriously doubt the veep debate will do much especially with baseball playoffs starting up tomorrow night. Only if silking poney or cheney screws up will somthing be news worthy.. (well, if cheney doesnt win, then the MSM will keep building the story.. but I doubt things will matter much)
i might be wrong though..
anyone suspect the polls might be cooked to keep people watching the debates?
"If he merely improves, that will be the story of the night. The talk will be of how the president was much improved over his previous performance."
Owen, I fear you may be giving the MSM too much credit; they haven't told the truth up till now, what would make them change?
"He's a real nowhere man... Working on his nowhere plan... For NOBODY!!!"
Hey guys, the troll is at it again.
Temember, you said that you think Bush lost the election because of this debate.<p.
WELCOME TO THE GRIM FREEPER CLUB.
That is because troll boy only posts negativism and doom & gloom. His only purpose here is to try and demoralize everyone.
It's funny listening to the radio and having the news guy say the race is tightening up, going to Matthews for two seconds and having him say the same, and then hearing about THREE polls showing Bush up.
Sometime you'll have to tell me about your screen name and why you think NIMBY's rule...
I guess you can tell I'm not particularly fonda him...
COURAGE apparantly considers himself a self-appointed doom and gloom gadfly...we all know what type of substance you can usually find (gad)flies buzzing around!
Good analysis.....Just like you said all Bush has to show is that the curve is going up, and that is how you win the expectation game.
Guess that's why EVERY state poll has Bush slamming Kerry now. Two new polls out of FL---Bush up by 5% in each (FL is safe); Ohio is way out of reach; Kerry is now spending money in Wisconsin and Minnesota and is only up in NJ by 5 in one poll, tied in another. Yep, that's the mark of a guy who "who" the debate. Keep dreaming you idiot.
It's bigger than that. Bush 320. Mark it down, and that's the FLOOR, not the ceiling.
The point is this: what does the Bush bashing acommplish now? I am sure President Bush and his advisors wish he had done better and they are busily planning to improve his performance. Bush bashing at this point, just gives the MSM and Kerry/DU lurkers comfort!
Sorry, I forgot I had the italics tag on.
Sorry, I forgot I had the italics tag on.
Hard to win a debate against a cheater.
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