Posted on 10/06/2004 1:16:18 PM PDT by Yashcheritsiy
More post-debate polling continues to come in, and for the first time in a long while, they are not really all that positive for President Bush. I think many conservatives and Republicans, in an effort to try to boost morale, are downplaying the effect the debate last Thursday really had. It didn't help, and only hurt, President Bush. That is reality, I'm sorry to say. I'm certainly not trying to hurt morale among those of us on the Right, but at the same time, we cannot act or know what to do if we pump ourselves up with an artificial view of the way the polls are going. I'm merely being pragmatic, so please don't email me nasty letters condemning me for "not playing ball". I don't play ball, I report what's going on and give the analysis as I see it from what I consider to be a pragmatic, no-nonsense point of view. If these numbers below are going to do anything, it ought to be make us pull out the stops and get into action at the grass roots level. If we want to see sanity remain in the White House, then we need to get busy doing everything we can by email, by word of mouth, by every means available, to get out the vote and turn it towards Bush. I've said it before, back when the polls looked to be rocketing for Bush - don't get overconfident. Overconfidence can lead to disillusionment when things change for the worse, as they have, and that is far worse than any polling numbers. We should always fight like were ten points behind. This being said, let us go on to today's news....
(Excerpt) Read more at studytoanswer.net ...
Just keeps us from being complacent.
The only thing a baby seal is good for is the fur . That has MY " Seal of Approval ""
TROLL!!!!
Yet no mention of DNC e-mails telling supporters to DUpe the polls.
Thanks for the report. Sometimes a little honesty is needed. State polls follow the national polls... It's clear that Bush needs to turn it around starting Friday...
Doesn't appear to be a troll. Pretty decent blog.
Uh, some of this is old news. Omits more positive results. Do not waver. Perservere.
"Yet no mention of DNC e-mails telling supporters to DUpe the polls."
That's going to be a separate blog entry later this afternoon.
"TROLL!!!!"
Dost thou hate me, because I tell thee the truth?
GWB hit a bump over the weekend. These results reflect that. I believe we have worked through the rough spot already.
Not about to. Waver that is.
I chose to keep my powder dry for a reason. I'll be looking forward to it.
"GWB hit a bump over the weekend. These results reflect that. I believe we have worked through the rough spot already."
I think you're right about that. The combination of the upcoming Afghan elections, the tarring Cheney gave to John-boy last night, and the fact that Bush has been hot on the stump since Friday will hopefully turn some of the debate results around. That speech Bush gave in Wilkes-Barre was AWESOME.
There is a new Iowa poll that shows Bush up by 3.
Kerry looked better than Bush, and the MSM trumped him up, and it's certain he has benfited in the short term from this. However, it's not so ceratin that Bush was only hurt and not helped.
Kerry said a bunch of stipid things. Global test. Iranian nuclear fuel. Bilateral North Korean talks. Summits.
Plus he contradicted himself within the span of 90 minutes, while saying he has been consistent. He called Iraq a mistake and not a mistake; Saddam a threat and not a threat. The next day he called Bush a liar (through his ads) after having just said that he didn't do that.
Bush OTOH, while far from impressive in terms of style, and missing opporortunities to knock Kerry out, didn't deviate in any way from what his positions have been. Bush/Cheyney have been attacking Kerry non-stop since the debate, and the first debate gave Cheyney material to beat up on Edwards last night. Bush will have a lot of material to work with on Friday.
It will take a while to see what the long term effect is.
Time for PEP RALLY.....
GIVE ME A.............. G-E-O-R-G-E W BUSH
He is our man. Get to work freepers... we have to write letters call editors... get yard signs.... Get PROACTIVE!
Check the source of the article !
Relax guys, ABC news poll yesterday had Bush up by 6, Pew poll up by 5 the day before, today the ICR poll (International Communications Research poll) Bush up by 7.
I would suggest that those of you falling prey to the MSM psychological ops campaign, turn the TV off for a while.
Don't forget the ICR national poll with Bush up by 7
"Relax guys, ABC news poll yesterday had Bush up by 6, Pew poll up by 5 the day before, today the ICR poll (International Communications Research poll) Bush up by 7."
Thanks for the tip on the ICR poll! It came out after I'd posted, I'll be sure to include it in the update later today after the East coast polling firms close for the day. I'll drop a hat tip to you, as well!
"I would suggest that those of you falling prey to the MSM psychological ops campaign, turn the TV off for a while."
I'm just calling them like I see it myself. I don't have any MSM input, I don't even own a TV, listen to either conservative talk radio or Christian radio, and don't get the newspaper or any "news" magazines.
The problem I have with people who are relentlessly negative, but view themselves as being "realistic", is that pessimism is a contagion that spreads faster, and lasts longer, than its antidotes: optimism, perseverance and confidence. Some of us aren't great FDR fans around here, but somehow, "We have nothing to fear, but fear itself" seems a better call to arms for this election (which will thankfully be over in 3 1/2 short weeks) than the Baby Seal/Chicken Little call to hit the panic button.
One poll showed Americans of Arab descent favoring Kerry something like 80-9 percent. The DNC poll showed Jewish Americans favoring Kerry by about 75-25 over Bush. Somehow I don't believe that the two communities have the same interests in foreign policy; could someone explain to me just how they could both overwhelmingly favor the same candidate?
Thanks for your response. I've seen enough internal samples such as the one in the NewsWeek's poll that suggest a psychological game has been launched to "change the story" to "Kerry's comeback". Meecham (NewsWeek) on Hard Ball suggested that the press wants desperately to change the headlines to "Kerry: the comeback Kid". It's not a real story and we need a new kind of scepticism that intelligently handles their game.
Members of both groups fear and distrust Christians. Many of them feel Jerry Falwell is a bigger threat than Al Qaeda.
Yeah, what you said.
I would suggest that those of you falling prey to the MSM psychological ops campaign, turn the TV off for a while.
The state and national polls don't seem to jive, do they? Which ones do we believe?
Apparently, you can't handle the truth.
Are there new polls today that aren't good? Because the majority of the polling I've seen this week (including at least two polls that came out hours before the debate) has been quite solid for President Bush. I just wonder if this is not "realistic" but unnecessarily negative.
Good question. My suggestion is always look at the internals of a poll regardless of national or state and see if they make sense. For example, CBS news ran with a story from their poll suggesting Kerry improved with undecideds. What they didn't tell you is that Bush improved even more with undecideds (Bush improved 12% to Kerry's 7%.) That's an example of Psychological Operations on the public.
He mentions MO as SUSA 2 but SUSA had it 2 last month as well as everybody else had it much higher
I'm not falling prey, brain dead, so called "undecideds" are. Let's hope this is a very short lived bounce for lurch.
I don't know if we will actually know what is true until election day and with all the lawyers running around maybe not even then. If Bush DOES have something that would stop the trumped up Kerry momentum, NOW would be the time to use it!
Those Survey USA polls were taken on Sat, Sun, and Mon. Mostly a weekend poll and it was right in the middle of the post-debate frenzy. Assuming no more bounce for lurch, I think we can add a few points to the bush lead in MO, and maybe he has a 2-3 point lead in Ohio. I think some good economic numbers on Friday will really help Bush in the Midwest.
Also, I think many of us are just uneasy right now because we understand what is at stake. There is too much on the line. The Supreme Court and national sovereignty. Need I say more?
Baloney. Bush is up 7 in one and 5 in another.
Yes we are getting uneasy. I have NEVER owned a gun in my life but if Kerry is elected, I will SERIOUSLY consider buying one! I WILL PROTECT MY FAMILY!
"Those Survey USA polls were taken on Sat, Sun, and Mon. Mostly a weekend poll and it was right in the middle of the post-debate frenzy. Assuming no more bounce for lurch, I think we can add a few points to the bush lead in MO, and maybe he has a 2-3 point lead in Ohio. I think some good economic numbers on Friday will really help Bush in the Midwest."
Well, like I said, I just report the numbers as they come, I can't see the future or extrapolate possible polling results that don't actually exist.
Here's a meaningless poll that took place yesterday. My son's 2nd grade class was asked to write down for who they would vote. The numbers were great, 20 - 2 in favor of Bush. As they say, out of the mouths of babes. It's just too bad that we have to wait another 10 to 11 years for this class to vote.
"The problem I have with people who are relentlessly negative, but view themselves as being "realistic", is that pessimism is a contagion that spreads faster, and lasts longer, than its antidotes: optimism, perseverance and confidence. Some of us aren't great FDR fans around here, but somehow, "We have nothing to fear, but fear itself" seems a better call to arms for this election (which will thankfully be over in 3 1/2 short weeks) than the Baby Seal/Chicken Little call to hit the panic button."
I guess there's no pleasin' everybody! Funny, and I thought for the last month the daily polling updates would have been viewed as TOO optimistic since so much good news was coming down the line. Now, a little bad news pops up, which may reverse itself next week, and suddenly I'm Chicken Little hitting the panic button! Oh well, if I get it from both sides, I must be doing something right....
That bears repeating.
The election has already started. Got a call a few hours ago from the local Republican committee asking that I vote now by absentee ballot. (I live in FL). Then the lady reminded me that early voting in FL starts 18 Oct.
A number of states have early voting this year. If the campaign for reelection doesn't pull whatever rabbit it has in the hat out of the hat, and soon, they are going to miss a sizable percentage of voters.
The election has already started. Got a call a few hours ago from the local Republican committee asking that I vote now by absentee ballot. (I live in FL). Then the lady reminded me that early voting in FL starts 18 Oct.
A number of states have early voting this year. If the campaign for reelection doesn't pull whatever rabbit it has in the hat out of the hat, and soon, they are going to miss a sizable percentage of voters.
Good point!
Do anything but. Work and pray. Kerry can win and will if we get lazy.
Good news. Rasmussen just released data showing Bush up 6+ in MO. It's the same spread as a month ago. Nothing has changed.
I will wait and see if Bush wins. If not, I will seriously consider purchasing a gun. If Kerry wins, I give this country less than 6 months before we have another terrorist attack and it will make 9/11 look tame! NOT ONE terrorist attack since 9/11 with Bush.
Folks,
Polling is very weird this year.
Lets have some postulates:
1) There's no conspiracy among pollsters or who is funding them.
2) The techniques chosen make an honest try at accuracy.
3) There is consistency.
The absolute most odd thing we're seeing is the huge variance in partisan mix in polls taken just a few weeks apart. At this point we all know the results of most of the polls (Rasmussen excepted; he forces partisan mix constant)are correlating closely with which party has the majority of respondents.
The question is: Why is this variance present? Does anyone believe people are changing their party this often? No. I don't think we do.
Given postulate 1 above, no conspiracy, I don't have an answer to the question. Yes, I know Newsweek polled one night only on the west coast and that probably got them more Dems, but Gallup did not.
There is a possibility of the latest switch in numbers. If you poll randomly and the overall population of Dems has increased (from perhaps the recent registration surge), then this is the result we would expect. I do not think this is the answer, however, because the same Dem majority was showing back in July, and it switched to GOP, with no GOP registration surge.
I have no answer, but I do think it is clear that there is something amiss with the polls. They should not show this 12% partisan mix swing when the partisan mix is essentially constant.
Polling is very weird this year.
Lets have some postulates:
1) There's no conspiracy among pollsters or who is funding them.
2) The techniques chosen make an honest try at accuracy.
3) There is consistency.
The absolute most odd thing we're seeing is the huge variance in partisan mix in polls taken just a few weeks apart. At this point we all know the results of most of the polls (Rasmussen excepted; he forces partisan mix constant)are correlating closely with which party has the majority of respondents.
The question is: Why is this variance present? Does anyone believe people are changing their party this often? No. I don't think we do.
Given postulate 1 above, no conspiracy, I don't have an answer to the question. Yes, I know Newsweek polled one night only on the west coast and that probably got them more Dems, but Gallup did not.
There is a possibility of the latest switch in numbers. If you poll randomly and the overall population of Dems has increased (from perhaps the recent registration surge), then this is the result we would expect. I do not think this is the answer, however, because the same Dem majority was showing back in July, and it switched to GOP, with no GOP registration surge.
I have no answer, but I do think it is clear that there is something amiss with the polls. They should not show this 12% partisan mix swing when the partisan mix is essentially constant.
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