Posted on 10/10/2004 1:11:23 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
INDEPENDENCE, Ohio - For months, Mary Pagel has been unsure how she'll vote.
Pagel and her husband "waffle back and forth. One day we're voting for Bush and the next day we're voting for Kerry," she said.
The retired teacher is unhappy with President Bush's strategy in Iraq, but she's wary about Sen. John Kerry. "I think Kerry is going to spend too much of my money - too many social programs," said Pagel, who definitely plans to vote on Nov. 2.
Pagel is part of a small but crucial slice of the American electorate that campaign strategists call "the persuadables." The group, which accounts for about 10 percent of likely voters, includes people who are undecided and others who are leaning toward a candidate but might switch.
With the presidential election less than a month away and polls showing a dead heat in Florida and other key states, the campaigns are working harder to sway the persuadables, a group dominated by white middle-class suburbanites. The candidates are emphasizing dinner-table topics such as health insurance, and they are airing TV ads showing harried moms in minivans.
Matthew Dowd, chief strategist for Bush, said the group is critical. The campaign that wins the persuadables "wins the election."
Tuning in late
They are the middle.
Middle-income. Moderate politics. Most are middle-aged.
They are Middle America. Some live in rural areas, but most live in suburbs like Independence, a town outside of Cleveland that bills itself as "the friendly community in the heart of Cuyahoga County."
The persuadables are predominantly white and include more women than men. They are less likely to attend church than other voters.
They tune in late to the presidential campaign and are not very tuned in to the news. They are casual readers of newspapers and don't discuss politics with their friends.
"The election just isn't of much interest to them," said Andrew Smith, who directs the Granite State Poll at the University of New Hampshire. "They have other things to do. This may be the first time they paid attention to the election."
Dowd said "an event like a debate or a convention speech will have more impact with them" because they don't get engaged in the campaign until the final month.
The fence-sitters in this election were probably also fence-sitters the last election. Their vote has often reflected the final outcome: In 2000, they were evenly split between Bush and Vice President Al Gore.
"They are called swing voters for a reason - they have swung," said Joe Lockhart, a senior adviser to Kerry.
They are political procrastinators, waiting until just before the election to choose. "They don't make a decision until they have to make the decision," said Terry Madonna, a professor at Franklin & Marshall College who conducts polls in Pennsylvania.
The persuadables include the undecided voters, who represent about 5 percent in most polls. But up to one-third of the undecideds won't vote. The leaners - like Mary Pagel - are more likely to vote.
There are fewer persuadables in this election than in the past because the nation is so polarized about the Iraq war and the Bush presidency. Also, the campaign started earlier. The candidates were running ads against each other last spring, instead of holding off until late summer.
Said Madonna, "We've already had carpet-bombing with the commercials and full-fledged campaigning."
Leaning toward Kerry
On the issues, the persuadables are stuck in the middle.
Polls indicate they like Bush as a leader in the war on terrorism, but they're unhappy with his handling of the economy and the Iraq war.
"They are very grumpy about the war and the economy," said Adam Clymer, political director of the National Annenberg Election Survey.
Only 17 percent of them feel Bush has "a clear plan" for Iraq, compared with 36 percent of all voters. But they also are skeptical of Kerry. Only 15 percent feel he has a clear plan.
Lately, more of them seem to be leaning toward Kerry. An Annenberg poll showed Bush's approval rating among persuadables dropped from 56 percent in August to 44 percent in September.
Madonna says many of the persuadable women disagree with Bush on issues such as stem cell research and abortion rights, but they like his stance on homeland security.
One such voter, Lori Holzinger, 32, a stay-at-home mom in Broadview Heights, Ohio, is unhappy with the Iraq war and supports abortion rights, which should make her lean toward Kerry. But she worries that Kerry won't be tough enough on terrorism.
She is leaning toward Bush because "he has done a pretty good job. There hasn't been anything since Sept. 11 that has scared us."
She has had difficulty watching the candidates on TV because of the demands of motherhood. She tried to watch the first two debates, but her three kids were too loud.
What the campaigns are doing to get them
With the persuadables just tuning in, the Bush and Kerry campaigns have tailored messages to reach them.
"This is really the optimal time to get their attention," said Mary Beth Cahill, Kerry's campaign manager. In the final three weeks, Kerry will be emphasizing issues that are important to them, such as health care and jobs.
Cahill said the timing of the debates has worked in Kerry's favor because domestic issues - often more important for swing voters - are the focus of the final debate, to be held Wednesday in Tempe, Ariz.
The Kerry campaign recently began airing a TV ad that addresses the persuadables' key concerns - health care, education and the battle on terrorism.
The ad shows a mother on a porch swing with her son as Kerry says that Bush "tells us we don't have the resources to take care of health care and education here at home. That's wrong. As president, I'll stop at nothing to get the terrorists before they get us. But I'll also fight to build a stronger middle class."
Last week, the Bush campaign started airing a TV ad that shows a harried mother driving a minivan full of kids. As she drives, the kids toss a basketball inside the van.
She hears a voice on the radio saying, "John Kerry and the liberals in Congress have voted to raise gas taxes 10 times. ... They voted to raise taxes on senior Social Security benefits and raise taxes on middle-class parents 18 times. ... No relief from the marriage penalty."
Viewers see a closeup of the mom and can hear her thoughts.
"More taxes because I'm married," she says with amazement. "What were they thinking?"
Call me reactionary, but if you are undecided at this point, can we sterilize you so that you don't spread your gene pool any further?
I would go with that.... rather than undecided, could we just go with the term morons?
I much prefer someone who is openly partisan, even if they are on the opposite side of me- at least I know where they stand.
These mushy-middle characters will stab you in the back, every single time- you can't depend on them.
Absolutely!
It's galling.
People like this are good arguments against univseral suffrage. I don't mind people who have conviction, misguided as they may be, but I can't stand people who have "too much else to do" voting on election day. Let those of us who pay attention decide.
He can't make a decision either!
I was going to say they are a perfect match for sKerry; the both "waffle" alot.
If the race wasn't so close, these people wouldn't be given the time of day.
LOL,"the wafflers"
These people are worse than just mushy undecideds. They are holding this election and our future hostage. Do they realize this? Do they understand that this country's future is on hold, awaiting the decisions of 10% of the electorate? Maybe they are just ignorant dupes. Maybe they are limelight lovers. Whichever, they need to be slapped into reality. We do not have the luxury of entertaining fools in this present dangerous world.
It's because the race is so close, they can garner this attention.
You remember Lincoln's statement that you can fool some of the people all of the time. Well these are those people.
My guess is that there is an adapted genetic reason for people like this to exist.
Assuming that humans and our evolutionary predecessors were all social creatures, sometimes it was necessary to persuade one or several to be guinea pigs.
Either to see if there was a bear in that cave, or how deep the water was, or whether that berry was poisonous, it was probably useful to have bumpkins who you could talk into just about anything.
Whatever happened to common sense in this nation let alone ohio this is my state and these people scare the hell out of me !
If they aren't smart enough to have made a firm decision by now maybe they just shouldn't vote at all whats their life like with such undecision must be hell choosing between pepsi and coke !
I have the sinking feeling that you may be right.
ROTFLOL These people are beyond help, and how the media panders to them by telling them how important their vote is, is ridiculous. I say they should ALL stay home from the polls and better luck in the next presidential election. In 4 years perhaps they will have been able to make up their "minds."
I call these people sheep. problem is they don't seem to get that JFK is a wolf in sheep's clothing.
Of course this is a LITTLE out of context but the bible's sentiment on these matters is interesting...
Jesus said, "I know all the things you do, that you are neither hot nor cold. I wish you were one or the other! But since you are like lukewarm water, I will spit you out of my mouth!"
James said, "A double minded man is unstable in all his ways."
Mood ring moderates. I despise them.
Great description.
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