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Kerry Pulls Even With Bush In Ohio
American Research Group ^ | October 6, 2004

Posted on 10/10/2004 11:37:01 AM PDT by Clintonfatigued

Poll gives Kerry 48%, Bush 47%.


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Louisiana; US: Ohio
KEYWORDS: argisdembiased; georgewbush; johnfnkerry; ohio; polls; some1alwaysgullible; swingstates
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1 posted on 10/10/2004 11:37:01 AM PDT by Clintonfatigued
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To: Clintonfatigued

This has to be pre-debate for the most part.


2 posted on 10/10/2004 11:38:46 AM PDT by Blogger (Pray for President Bush and our nation!!!!! The Lord is our Hope and Strength!!!!!)
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To: Clintonfatigued

ARG=BULL


3 posted on 10/10/2004 11:39:12 AM PDT by SaintDismas
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To: Clintonfatigued

This was taken before Friday's debate. My bet is in a few days Bush will be ahead again.


4 posted on 10/10/2004 11:39:24 AM PDT by somerville
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To: Clintonfatigued

This poll is 4 days old.


5 posted on 10/10/2004 11:39:43 AM PDT by Lunatic Fringe (http://www.drunkenbuffoonery.com/mboards/)
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To: wequalswinner

Isn't ARG Madaline Albright's propaganda wing of the DNC?


6 posted on 10/10/2004 11:40:19 AM PDT by counterpunch (The CouNTeRPuNcH Collection - www.counterpunch.us)
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To: Lunatic Fringe

It's also DNC-ARG (D). It's useless. Bush is up 4 in Ohio if they claim he's down one.


7 posted on 10/10/2004 11:41:37 AM PDT by GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY
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To: somerville

Why? Why? Why? Its hard to believe that this is happening in Ohio?


8 posted on 10/10/2004 11:41:38 AM PDT by tirednvirginia
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To: Clintonfatigued

Utter crap. You CANNOT trust ARG. Trust me, Bush is kicking butt here in OH, and it isn't close.


9 posted on 10/10/2004 11:42:02 AM PDT by LS
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To: Clintonfatigued

ARG is a left leaning group. I'd give Bush +5 on this poll. However OH will be determined by turnout. Fortunate for us, Cleveland doesn't have the political weight that Detroit or Philly has.


10 posted on 10/10/2004 11:42:11 AM PDT by Kuksool (Get Your Souls To The Polls In November)
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To: Clintonfatigued

Dream on.
Gay marriage is on the ballot.
Kucinich is within margin of losing his seat.


11 posted on 10/10/2004 11:42:43 AM PDT by mabelkitty (W is the Peoples' President ; Kerry is the Elite Establishment's President)
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To: Lunatic Fringe

And gettin moldier by the minute.


12 posted on 10/10/2004 11:42:45 AM PDT by international american (Support our troops!! Send Kerry back to Bedlam,Massachusetts!!)
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To: tirednvirginia

You're in Virginia - I live in Ohio.
It isn't happening.
Calm down.


13 posted on 10/10/2004 11:43:25 AM PDT by mabelkitty (W is the Peoples' President ; Kerry is the Elite Establishment's President)
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To: Clintonfatigued

ARG is worthless Dim shill outfit, don't waste your/our time wth ARG.


14 posted on 10/10/2004 11:43:42 AM PDT by citizen (Write-in Tom Tancredo for President/Jeff Flake VP 2004!)
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To: mabelkitty

This was probably the dumbest Democrat move... To insist on Gay marriage...

It will cost them big!


15 posted on 10/10/2004 11:43:48 AM PDT by Pitiricus
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To: Clintonfatigued

No possible way this is accurate. Bush is kicking ass here.


16 posted on 10/10/2004 11:43:55 AM PDT by Sunshine55 (Why would you choose the donkey to be the symbol for your party? Was the sheep already taken?)
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To: Kuksool

IGNORE ARG......Bush will WIN Ohio...take it to the bank


17 posted on 10/10/2004 11:44:12 AM PDT by kingattax (FreeRepublic leads...others follow)
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To: Clintonfatigued

You realize this is an old poll. Most recently, Rasmussen daily tracking for Ohio has Bush up about 2 to 3 points. That's the most recent.


18 posted on 10/10/2004 11:44:31 AM PDT by Ravi (Jai Jindal)
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To: Blogger

Yes, if you go to the link you will find it is dated October 7, the day before Friday's debate.


19 posted on 10/10/2004 11:44:50 AM PDT by no dems (Does the BC/'04 Campaign staff monitor this website? If not, they should.)
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To: LS

You know the old saying...tell a lie enough times, and it becomes truth. Or something like that. :)


20 posted on 10/10/2004 11:46:09 AM PDT by IamHD
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To: mabelkitty

Yes, you are right. They tried to spin it for Kerry in our state of VA at one point but that was a bunch of crap, too.


21 posted on 10/10/2004 11:46:10 AM PDT by tirednvirginia
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To: Kuksool; Impy; AuH2ORepublican; JohnnyZ; fieldmarshaldj; Howlin; California Patriot; ...

PING!


22 posted on 10/10/2004 11:46:24 AM PDT by Clintonfatigued
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To: counterpunch

Dunno...but if you look at their polls compared to all others contemporaneously (how do you like that word?)their poll is crap----and lots of it---

as in whacha stepin in out dere in yonder cow pasture ifn yer not carefl....


23 posted on 10/10/2004 11:47:50 AM PDT by SaintDismas
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To: Clintonfatigued

ping


24 posted on 10/10/2004 11:48:02 AM PDT by boycott
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To: kingattax
IGNORE ARG......Bush will WIN Ohio...take it to the bank

Phew! Thanks for saying so, I really needed to hear this. I swear, if I come out of this election without having an ulcer it will be a miracle.

25 posted on 10/10/2004 11:48:16 AM PDT by mtngrl@vrwc ( We cannot change the direction of the wind... but we can adjust our sails.)
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Comment #26 Removed by Moderator

To: Pitiricus

Are you kidding me? Dems allowed gay marriage on ballot in Ohio? They're toast. LOL. I had not heard that.

-T


27 posted on 10/10/2004 11:48:51 AM PDT by timbuck2 ("The true danger is when liberty is nibbled away, for expedients, and by parts." -Edmund Burke)
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To: Clintonfatigued

This poll should be tied at 48, because Nader is NOT on the Ohio ballot this year.

In ARG's defense in Ohio, though, the partisan breakdown of this poll is accurate, and other polls have shown it close. Rasmussen had Bush up 1 on October 2nd, and Survey USA had Kerry up 1 on October 4th. Prior to the first debate, Gallup had Bush up 2 on September 28th. On the other hand, the Columbus Dispatch had Bush up 7 before the first debate.

So Ohio has definitely tightened from the 8 point lead the President had earlier. I believe the President is up about 2-3 points in Ohio after the second debate.


28 posted on 10/10/2004 11:49:12 AM PDT by okstate (I'm John Kerry, and I approved this message... before I decided against it.)
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To: Clintonfatigued
Presidential Tracking Poll: Bush-Kerry Sunday October 10, 2004--The latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows President George W. Bush with 50% of the vote and Senator John Kerry with 46%. Voters have declared the second Presidential debate a tie with fans of each candidate thinking that their man won. The Tracking Poll is based upon nightly telephone interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, just over one-third of the interviews for today's update were completed after the conclusion of Friday night's Presidential debate. There was not a noticeable jump in the post-debate interviews, but it will take a few more days to fully measure the impact of the debate. In the race to control the U.S. Senate, Republicans can feel confident of winning or holding 48 seats at this time while Democrats have 44 in their column. One Senate race is leaning Republican and seven are too close to call. Our latest Electoral College projections show the President ahead with 240 Electoral Votes to 169 for Senator Kerry. These projections will be updated today, Sunday, at 5:00 p.m. Eastern. Rasmussen Reports has recently released state election polls for Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Louisiana, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, West Virginia, Washington, Virginia, and Wisconsin. Rasmussen Reports Premium Members receive daily tracking updates for Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. They also receive weekly updates for 15 other states plus other supplemental information. A full year subscription is available for just $95. To keep up with our latest releases, be sure to visit the Rasmussen Reports Home Page. The left hand column on that page shows our most recent releases along with a schedule of upcoming releases. The right hand column provides a convenient summary of our latest political data. If you need to find information we've released over the past couple of weeks, visit our Other Recent Releases page.
29 posted on 10/10/2004 11:51:45 AM PDT by crushelits
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To: wequalswinner; counterpunch; GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY; Kuksool; international american; citizen; ...

First things first: I am not a troll, and I didn't know that ARF was a partisan organization. I only posted it so Ohio conservatives don't take anything for granted.


30 posted on 10/10/2004 11:52:00 AM PDT by Clintonfatigued
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To: Clintonfatigued

I don't know about the poll - and I don't like them - but -

The Socialist Democrats went into overdrive in Ohio. Didn't anyone else see the % difference - Huge - the election officials in some areas are swamped and are working to keep up with all the forms coming in -

The best thing to do is not to take anything for granted -

just thoughts -



31 posted on 10/10/2004 11:53:07 AM PDT by Pastnowfuturealpha
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To: Clintonfatigued
This thread will give you both Kerry's voting record - "from nothing, nothing comes" and President Bush's amazing record - "Res ipsa loquitur" - the thing "record" speaks for itself.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1240721/posts COPY AND SEND TO YOUR LIST.

REELECT PRESIDENT BUSH - HE WILL KEEP AMERICA SECURE; HE CARES ABOUT AMERICA AND AMERICANS!!

32 posted on 10/10/2004 11:53:42 AM PDT by yoe ("Here's my strategy on the Cold War: We win, they lose." Ronald Reagan)
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To: Clintonfatigued

ARG isn't a partisan organization, as far as I know... but their sampling and likely voter "index" are exremely favorable to Democrats.


33 posted on 10/10/2004 11:53:52 AM PDT by okstate (I'm John Kerry, and I approved this message... before I decided against it.)
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To: Clintonfatigued

Get out and vote for Bush!

Every vote for Bush in Ohio is very important.

If you are registered to vote in Ohio, spread the word.


34 posted on 10/10/2004 11:54:07 AM PDT by TSchmereL
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To: mabelkitty

Kucinich might lose? Your kidding me! I thought he was an Ohio equivilant of Jim McDermott and Charlie Rangel.

Is this a realistic possibility or just a pipe dream?


35 posted on 10/10/2004 11:54:31 AM PDT by zbigreddogz
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To: Clintonfatigued

There was no allegation you were. We were just pointing out ARG's bias. They have been consistently 3-5 points off the rest of the pollster's numbers, favoring Democrats.

Exactly how they are doing it, I can't figure out, because they have the right DRI numbers from 2000 and their gender numbers follow the 2000 exit polling data. Other pollsters are using the same 2000 data and getting entirely different results.


36 posted on 10/10/2004 11:56:22 AM PDT by GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY
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To: zbigreddogz

Who was the last Repub to win the presidency, but lose in Ohio? Jeopardy music begins...

-T


37 posted on 10/10/2004 11:58:20 AM PDT by timbuck2 ("The true danger is when liberty is nibbled away, for expedients, and by parts." -Edmund Burke)
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To: Clintonfatigued

If Kerry doesn't win Ohio he will not be President.

Because of the very real potential to win Wisconsin, Bush can now lose Ohio and still have a reasonable chance for victory.

If Bush does lose Ohio, but brings in Wisconsin, he will have to swing FIVE Electoral Votes to win.

President Bush has four different scenarios through which he could gain these votes. The best bet right now looks to be Iowa's 7 Electoral Votes.


38 posted on 10/10/2004 11:58:21 AM PDT by TSchmereL
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To: GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY

I think it's the way in which they identify likely voters (which is propreitary)....

For instance, Gallup had President Bush's numbers way higher than all other pollsters back in late July and August because supposedly they way they identify likely voters is favorable to Republicans. ARG is just the opposite.

Kind of the same thing how some pollsters push leaners differently, and how that really affects their numbers (i.e. Rasmussen and Zogby getting different results)


39 posted on 10/10/2004 11:58:43 AM PDT by okstate (I'm John Kerry, and I approved this message... before I decided against it.)
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To: Clintonfatigued

I want to see the polls from after Friday's debate, I think there will be a 5 to 6 point swing.


40 posted on 10/10/2004 11:59:02 AM PDT by wagglebee (Benedict Arnold was for American independence before he was against it.)
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To: Clintonfatigued

This has been out for a while.


41 posted on 10/10/2004 12:00:20 PM PDT by The Old Hoosier (Right makes might.)
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To: okstate

I suspect you are right. It's either their LV model or possibly how they "randomly" select people. It's possible they oversample the inner city telephone exchanges or something where Republicans are not as solid.


42 posted on 10/10/2004 12:01:05 PM PDT by GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY
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To: Clintonfatigued

I didn't know ARF was partisan either. We conservatives must have a great turnout to win, as the dems will try to steal it any way they can.


43 posted on 10/10/2004 12:01:34 PM PDT by international american (Support our troops!! Send Kerry back to Bedlam,Massachusetts!!)
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To: Clintonfatigued

American Research Group = AAAAAAAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!


44 posted on 10/10/2004 12:01:38 PM PDT by MikefromOhio (Rudi Bahktiar is hot!!!! Too bad she works for CNN.....)
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To: Clintonfatigued

For an ARG poll, that's good.


45 posted on 10/10/2004 12:02:36 PM PDT by Republican Wildcat
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To: Clintonfatigued

You are right, with the fraud going on, there must be a HUGE turnout. Ohio GOP folks (and Northern Kentucky folks) need to be hitting the streets and manning the phones to get our people to the polls!


46 posted on 10/10/2004 12:03:38 PM PDT by Republican Wildcat
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To: mabelkitty
Thank you for that mabelkitty!! :)
Texas is Bush country....and we know W will win comfortably here! It's good to know we have freepers in Ohio that can give us a birds eye view on the situation there! Gotta admit though, Ohio sometimes worries me...BUT I'll take your word over any lib pollster, that OHIO is Bush country! Woohoo :)
47 posted on 10/10/2004 12:06:54 PM PDT by RoseofTexas
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To: Republican Wildcat

Absolutely a good result for an ARG poll.

ARG Poll Result + 5.0% = Reality.

Rasmussen's daily tracking poll shows Ohio going to Bush today, not last week.


48 posted on 10/10/2004 12:09:06 PM PDT by lowteksh
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To: LS

Can you give us tangible evidence?


49 posted on 10/10/2004 12:10:53 PM PDT by rushmom
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To: mtngrl@vrwc

I hear ya.


50 posted on 10/10/2004 12:12:10 PM PDT by rushmom
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