Suicide watch at DU. Somehow, that phrase is sweeter than 'ice cream and cake.'
Posted on 10/12/2004 4:21:30 AM PDT by The G Man
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Bush (news - web sites) bounced back into a tie with Democratic challenger John Kerry (news - web sites) one day before their final debate, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Tuesday.
Bush gained three points on the Massachusetts senator to move into a 45-45 percent dead heat in the latest three-day tracking poll of the White House campaign.
(SNIP)
Where is Zogby's 3 point lead! Suicide watch at DU.
Suicide watch at DU. Somehow, that phrase is sweeter than 'ice cream and cake.'
I volunteer to mix their kool-aid for them.
There is no way a "reliable" pollster can stand on a 3 point change either way in the face of no major event. This is nuts! Rhetorical question-"Will this make as much of a spach on the MSM as yesterday's results"? We all know that answer.
Good grief! Zog is ladling the sauce on pretty thick. I think that the polls this year are completely worthless because they fail to reflect the changes caused to the electorate by 9/11.
Election night will be the Bush night.
Reuters like Zogby is a bogus poll.
The only bounce that Kerry could get anywhere is if he fell down on his Hair Helmut.
This is the Zogby poll. I don't care what is "bogus" and what isn't ... as long as they show our guy winning. It will only help to depress Dem turnout and give us a chance at the 3rd GOP Tsunami in 10 years.
"I think that the polls this year are completely worthless because they fail to reflect the changes caused to the electorate by 9/11."
That is the effect the MSM is trying to hide. I call it the "avalanche".
Better hide the sharp objects over at DU.
Thank God this is the last debate!
The internals of these polls are based on turnout from the 2000 election rather than actually gauging the electorate as to where they are now. As a result, I sense that traditional democrats and indys are leaning to the right much more than the way they are being reflected in the polls. Garbage in, garbage out.
What bounce are they talking about?????? Bush has had the lead in different polls. I think these pollsters are high on something.
Dick Morris said what you are saying that Lurch's current stance on the war is going to cost him big amongst his own party.
This is the point that is missed by many. All the rules have changed.
I was in a group counseling corporate types in the weeks after 911. The one point I heard was made from those who had came here from other nations to work. For the first time, the safety they perceived from being in the US had been shattered.
With Mr. Bush we have someone who says what he means and means what he says. There have been no more attacks here since, and we have been chasing them on foreign soil.
We know from both men what they will do if in office, for we have their records to examine.
Post 911, Kerry is an empty suit.
How many of us reflected during the weeks just after 911 about how it could have been with Mr. Gore in office. I have to believe that many will come out and vote their concern for security.
Remember that phrase in our Constitution - "Provide for the common defense"; it is all of our responsibilities to vote to see that the common defense of this nation is upheld.
"nuanced nuisance nonsense."
Bet'cha can't say that 3 times fast......
Or more note worthy, portray as somehow valid.
IMHO ... it is the objective of the MSM to lull all into thinking this is a close and competitive race.
Yes we do. You need look no farther than the front page headline in today's USA Today.
I disagree, most people have completely forgotten about 9/11.
I wonder the same thing! Wasnt Kerry up by 3 less than 24 hours ago?? So we are to believe millions of people are changing their minds THAT rapidly? I don't buy it.
Yesterday the schizoid Chris Matthews was saying that Kerry had the momentum and quoted ZogBS's poll as his source. He did not pay much attention to the WP/ABC poll showing Bush ahead by 5+ points. I said yesterday that ZogBS's 3 point Kerry lead was only statistical noise and wishful thinking. Now we know that Zogby must have become worried about being the only outlier there and quickly re-tooled his poll. If Bush does well in the debate, expect a 5-7 point lead for the Presidentleading to the final weekend (and fasten your seatbelt because the Dems dirty tricks will work overtime Sat and Sun to hurt Bush)
Que Viva Bush!!!
Yep. I've been saying for a long time that the voting demographic that I refer to as "9/11 Democrats" is flying right under the MSM radar. You see how even in HOLLYWOOD you have hardcore liberals (like Ron Silver and one of the Baldwin brothers for crying out loud!) coming out in support of Bush. You can just imagine the impact on historically Democratic Joe Sixpack.
LOL!
I suspect that they are walking on egg shells attempting to avoid likely collateral damage from supporting Kerry if (correction, when) he tanks on 2 NOV.
3 point swing in one day? Never happens absent a major event. As someone said above: Zogby stayed up late doing dome serious retooling.
Think anybody in the MSM will admit their call of a tie in the second debate was ludicrous given the movement in the polls?
-T
Should you know any "people have completely forgotten about 9/11", send me your email address (via Free Republic mail) and I will be only to happy to send you the Armstong beheading vidio.
One look at that will tell anyone who views it just what this war is all about.
As retired police officer, who has seen more than my share of violence and it's aftermath, I can assure you it is the most horrific thing one could view.
We all have seen the WTC footage. Perhaps we all should see Armstrong in his last few agonizing moments of life.
Forget? Not in this lifetime!
None of this will matter come Nov. 2. Bush has all but won. Even if he loses OH and NH, he will definitely win WI and NM for an even 270. Kerry must win OH PLUS NH, and then add either WI or NM to win. He can win neither of the latter two, however, since both WI and NM are organized for Bush down to the last precinct. Bush is running well in both states. Kerry is toast.
But Edwards has nicer hair.
Bush's debate performance fully reflected in this poll. No he has the chance to gain momentum and put Kerry away tomorrow. Sort of like Deuce in tennis.
This poll is supposedly BEFORE the 2nd debate.
"This was the first poll conducted entirely after Friday's debate."
My bad.
6% of likely voters remain undecided. Undecideds always break for the incumbent on election day. Therefore, a tie goes to the incumbent. Moreover, the election will be decided by electoral votes, not the popular vote. So things are looking good for Bush right now.
That having been said, with the US engaged in a global war on terror I think that the above conventional wisdom is out the window and that indeed undecideds will break for W on election day.
Don't forget Iowa.
Wis, + Iowa = win
(even without Ohio or NM)
It seems that weekend polls favor Kerry and week day polls favor Bush. Is that accurate? And, why would that be?
"Now we know that Zogby must have become worried about being the only outlier there and quickly re-tooled his poll"
Just what I was thinking yesterday, Zogby used bogus numbers to stop any mention of a Bush debate bounce but then he had to get back in line quickly for two reasons: one, so he wouldn't be so obviously out of whack with the other polls and two, if Kerry does well or OK Zog has room to sauce another "bounce" next week. After that he slowly gets his numbers back to whwat he actually thinks is going to happen so he doesn't look bad on election day. Zogby is creating news, not polling.
Which current stance was Morris talking about?
I haven't forgotten, but I don't know the situation in IO as well as in NM. Bush is well-organized in NM. He will definitely win there--and Kerry must have this state to win. IO still seems like a toss-up.
Tue Oct 12, 2004 07:03 AM ET
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Bush bounced back into a tie with Democratic challenger John Kerry one day before their final debate, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Tuesday.
Bush gained three points on the Massachusetts senator to move into a 45-45 percent dead heat in the latest three-day tracking poll of the White House campaign.
The focus of the tight race now turns to Wednesday's pivotal final debate in Tempe, Arizona, with both candidates hoping to take advantage of their last chance to court a national television audience of likely voters.
"A close race got closer," pollster John Zogby said. "I am not expecting anyone to pull away in this one -- at least not yet."
Seven percent of likely voters are still undecided three weeks before the Nov. 2 election. Only 35 percent of undecided voters give Bush a positive job rating, and 50 percent give him a negative rating.
Bush holds solid leads among married voters, military families, investors and those living in states he won in the 2000 race against Democrat Al Gore. Kerry holds leads over Bush among single voters, moderate voters, union voters and those living in states won by Gore.
Newly registered voters lean toward Kerry by 49-42 percent, while those who have already voted give a slight edge to Bush by 48-43 percent.
The poll of 1,223 likely voters was taken Saturday through Monday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. The rolling poll will continue through Nov. 1 -- the day before the election.
A tracking poll combines the results of three consecutive nights of polling, then drops the first night's results each time a new night is added. It allows pollsters to record shifts in voter sentiment as they happen.
This was the first poll conducted entirely after Friday's debate, when Bush and Kerry sniped at each other over Iraq, jobs and taxes.
Kerry continues to lead Bush among voters who view the economy, education and the war in Iraq as the top issue, while Bush holds a huge 71-25 percent lead among those who cite the war on terror as their top issue.
The poll found 49 percent of voters thought the United States was headed in the wrong direction and 45 percent thought it was headed in the right direction.
It also showed independent candidate Ralph Nader, blamed by some Democrats for drawing enough votes from Al Gore to cost him the election in 2000, earning the support of 1.6 percent of likely voters.
The theory goes that Republican voters are more typically members of traditional families (husband, wife, 2.3 kids, etc) and on weekends are off taking kids to soccer, or working in the yard, or going to the zoo, or whatever. So it goes.
The weekend poll theory is a myth. Reputable pollsters can account for the minute shift in demographics.
What Zogby had was a bad sample.
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