Skip to comments.Bush Team Confident Of West Virginia Win
Posted on 10/13/2004 5:02:48 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued
Advisers to the Massachusetts senator acknowledge that he trails Bush in West Virginia, but they insist the state is still within reach.
(Excerpt) Read more at foxnews.com ...
Good. Play the coal card and the gun card heavy in the next two weeks. We want this state.
West Virginia will vote for Bush becuase John Kerry is a radical social liberal. Bush in a walk.
Am I the only one who sees how ludicrous his position has become? He has to steal NH, somehow steal OH or FL, and keep every one of Algore's 2000 states. Yet MO is totally off the table, as is AZ, NC, and AR, and WI is nearly gone. (IMHO, it is safe right now).
He ain't stealing OH, so that's off.
I'm confident West Viriginia will win also, but so far UConn is doing a good job.
Ohio concerns me
any new info as to put my fears to rest?
Kerry left VA yesterday.
My bet is he will concentrate on Ohio, New Jersey (yes), and Pennsylvania.
It will be known in the coming two weeks as the "targeted" campaign.
For Kerry to literally sit out these last two days, riding his stupid $8000 mountain bike, instead of going to rallies, is one of the most telling body language things in this entire campaign.
Anyone else think it was odd for him to go dark?
If he's indeed such a brilliant domestic policy wonk, why the 36 hours of "preparation?"
Best guess, Bush still +6, minimum.
I agree with almost everything you say apart from your confidence with regard to Ohio. The most recent polls seem to show a narrow Kerry lead, which is worrying given that there are fewer than 3 weeks left. Having said that, Hugh Hewitt today refers to a Bush campaign sweep through Ohio in the coming days, which will hopefully boost his numbers there.
Don't be overconfident.
Kerry needs 36 hours to rest that face of his...beauty, oops, beast rest. Don't want thsoe Botox bruises to show!
Good point. West Virginia is socially conservative, but economically labor-liberal and, while fiercely patriotic, leans isolationist on foreign issues.
They're talking about ohio on O'Reilly now
The NRA endorsement should help here...and in a number of other places. I just hope they rachet up the stakes for their members.
"Ohio concerns me...any new info as to put my fears to rest?"
A guy on an earlier thread said he 'heard' the Bush internals show them +8 in Ohio
Ohio had the biggest rally for Bush last week. 150,000 people. Shows a lot of support.
His assessment is that the GOP lost, proportionally, 1.5% less in the new voter registration drives (with more "indies" registering), and that they landed mostly in Bernalillo County. He concludes that Bush can win NM.
Likewise, his analysis of Minnesota is that the GOP counties have grown much faster than the Dem counties, and while you can't say MN is "trending Republican," it is much stronger than it was in 2000 for Bush.
Anyway, I mention this because Jay had a really critical blog the other day on Kerry sitting in NM and basically ceding campaign time. He doesn't think this at all looks like a campaign that is as confident as it lets on.
But isn't there a gay marriage issue on the ballot which could bring out alot of social conservatives who sat out in 2000?
That's a second-hand report. I'd be more confident with 4-6 right now.
he did say it came from the ohio campaign chairman I do believe.
I heard on the radio that the Kerry people are very Happy lately - bordering on Smug
this is not good news
hopefully whatever they think is happening they are incorrect
You have Rasmussen's state polls, which, I have to admit, were close in 2002, and the last Columbus Post Dispatch and Mason Dixon that had Bush comfortably up (4-6). My last internals, which are now 10 days old, were Bush by 8. But I'm not confident going with that number today, only because I don't have newer info.
I heard the other 8 point number second hand. May be right, may be wrong. Given all that, I think the ARG/Tribune polls are pretty worthless and that Bush is in the 4-6% lead range.
JMHO of course.
They are SMUG over that???? That tells me that MI and PA are completely in play, and that Kerry is really concerned about WI. In fact, they have sent IL staff to WI to try to recover.
Democrats leave in a delusional world.
They will turn vicious on Nov.3 when they have to face reality.
Remember how they acted in 2000?, 2002?
Correction: should be 'live' not 'leave'.
For some reason Bush pulled ads from PA surprised me since i thought it was competetive
MO, AZ, NC, AR were all W's in 2000, WI is a blue with a heavy lean to us. My take is, baring a catastrophe, W wins in the 290-320 EV range. Also, for what its worth, I spoke to a black political activist friend in Missouri a couple of nights ago, he is definitely wired into the democratic machine, and he eluded to the fact that there were thousands of new black voters in MO, WI, VA and PA registered in a stealth manner that could be the difference in a close race, and he also said that the Muslim vote that leaned to W in 2K is heavily going to go for the Kerry fraud ticket...I pray that it is not enough to alter what really, really is a crucial election for the sake of our nation.
Hehehe. You are forgetting that one little Maine district, that will vote one elector for Bush, no matter what!
His folks left a few weeks ago.
No you were right initially. They should all leave and go into their delusional world for good. Give us a break, please!
West VA is has similar demographics to key swing regions in PA and OH. If Bush is winning West Va, then he must be doing fine in OH and keeping PA competitive.
Bush has every church organized in WV - you're going to see another 'Georgia' the last 72 hours in WV ...
That is good news. If Republicans would rethink their position on free trade, they could effect a realignment in WV.
Any idea on how much Bush is winning that one Maine district by? I've scarcely seen anything on that.
You'r right - The election would be over in PA and OH as well !
MI, MN, WI, IA, and PA have >50% job approval for Bush. That predicts a Bush win when the undecided's decide.
Bush is also running ahead several points in the PA suburbs this time. He lost the suburbs in 2000.
Bush hasn't pulled ads in PA. We're still seeing them in Pittsburgh, Harrisburg, and Philadelphia.
West Virginia is more democratic than either PA outside Philly or Ohio. I agree though, the same issues are in play there for voters Kerry should win - coal and steel. Bush has taken care of these industries. The Democrats have an 8 year record of neglect. Bush is leading in SW PA.
Has the polling data from internals or media outlets indicted any kind of inroads in Montgomery, Delware, Bucks, Berks counties? If Kerry gets over 60% of Philly Metro area, then he wins the Keystone state.
Were you the only two people who missed Bush imposing Steel tarriffs and giving a big boost to revitalizing the steel industry there? The bigest beneficiaries were Bethlehem Steel (Coatesville and Conshohocken in PA), LTV Steel (Cleveland), Wierton Steel (Wierton, WV and Steubenville, OH), National Steel (Detroit and E. St Louis), and Rouge Steel (Detroit). Concomittant with this has been benefits in terms of a new Coke plant in southern Ohio, revitalization in the Minnesota and Michigan iron fields.
Notice the states really benefitting here - PA, OH, WV, MI, MN. Imagine that!
Its hard to miss if you work in the industry how many steel mills, coke plants, and mines closed between 1992 and 2000, and how almost none have under Bush since 2001.
Helps the railroaders and coal miners and limestone quarriers too.
The only polling for this area I saw showed Kerry at 51 and Bush at 40, I believe, but this was with a very tiny smaple of a statewide poll, so not reliable.
SurveyUSA shows Bush with a 3 point lead in the suburbs statewide. The Philadelphia suburbs are 2.5 million strong. Pittsburgh is closer to 1 million. Harrisburg, Lancaster and York are around 1 million together. Allentown and Scranton are another 1 million together. There are no other real suburbs. A 20 point Kerry lead in the Philly area would not produce a 3 point Bush lead statewide without a 25 point lead the other way in the rest of the suburbs of the state (which is not true, I think - maybe in Harrisburg-York-Lancaster, but not in Pittsburgh and Scranton).
If Kerry needs to campaign in New Jersey, then W is doing MUCH better than the polls are telling us.
I've written off PA. W will get WI and IA, probably New Mexico, maybe Minnesota, and maybe NJ.
Explain to West Virginians what Kyoto was all about and Kerry's alleged even quasi-support of it, and WV and its 5 votes belong to us.
I am sure Rockefeller is doing everything in his power to not let it get out.
If you know anyone in WV, PA, or Ohio, get the word out.
But a victorious night for the Mountaineers.
I think Uconn is a good upstart program that will be very good in a few years.
I am diehard WVU and am surprised at how rotten WVU played, especially in the first half.
Lots of work to do yet for both teams, but I see potential.
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