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Bush Team Confident Of West Virginia Win
Fox News ^ | October 13, 2004 | Associated Press

Posted on 10/13/2004 5:02:48 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued

Advisers to the Massachusetts senator acknowledge that he trails Bush in West Virginia, but they insist the state is still within reach.

(Excerpt) Read more at foxnews.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: West Virginia
KEYWORDS: election2004; georgewbush; johnfnkerry; redstates; socialconservatism; westvirginia
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1 posted on 10/13/2004 5:02:49 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued
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To: Clintonfatigued

Good. Play the coal card and the gun card heavy in the next two weeks. We want this state.


2 posted on 10/13/2004 5:04:47 PM PDT by mwl1
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To: Clintonfatigued

West Virginia will vote for Bush becuase John Kerry is a radical social liberal. Bush in a walk.


3 posted on 10/13/2004 5:05:10 PM PDT by jwalsh07 (Always ask yourself, does this pass the Global Test?)
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To: Clintonfatigued
One by one, Kerry is running out of freaking states.

Am I the only one who sees how ludicrous his position has become? He has to steal NH, somehow steal OH or FL, and keep every one of Algore's 2000 states. Yet MO is totally off the table, as is AZ, NC, and AR, and WI is nearly gone. (IMHO, it is safe right now).

He ain't stealing OH, so that's off.

4 posted on 10/13/2004 5:06:42 PM PDT by LS
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To: LS

I'm confident West Viriginia will win also, but so far UConn is doing a good job.


5 posted on 10/13/2004 5:07:47 PM PDT by montanus
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To: Kuksool; JohnnyZ; AuH2ORepublican; fieldmarshaldj; Impy; zbigreddogz; ambrose; goldstategop; ...

PING!


6 posted on 10/13/2004 5:09:08 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued
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To: LS

Ohio concerns me
any new info as to put my fears to rest?


7 posted on 10/13/2004 5:09:13 PM PDT by DM1
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To: LS

Kerry left VA yesterday.
My bet is he will concentrate on Ohio, New Jersey (yes), and Pennsylvania.
It will be known in the coming two weeks as the "targeted" campaign.
For Kerry to literally sit out these last two days, riding his stupid $8000 mountain bike, instead of going to rallies, is one of the most telling body language things in this entire campaign.
Anyone else think it was odd for him to go dark?
If he's indeed such a brilliant domestic policy wonk, why the 36 hours of "preparation?"


8 posted on 10/13/2004 5:10:11 PM PDT by Galtoid
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To: DM1
No. It's second had, although it exactly confirms my earlier numbers. But the county chairman had no updated numbers as of Mon.

Best guess, Bush still +6, minimum.

9 posted on 10/13/2004 5:10:38 PM PDT by LS
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To: LS

I agree with almost everything you say apart from your confidence with regard to Ohio. The most recent polls seem to show a narrow Kerry lead, which is worrying given that there are fewer than 3 weeks left. Having said that, Hugh Hewitt today refers to a Bush campaign sweep through Ohio in the coming days, which will hopefully boost his numbers there.


10 posted on 10/13/2004 5:11:34 PM PDT by Janan Ganesh (British passport, American soul)
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To: Clintonfatigued

Don't be overconfident.


11 posted on 10/13/2004 5:11:38 PM PDT by Brilliant
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To: Galtoid

Kerry needs 36 hours to rest that face of his...beauty, oops, beast rest. Don't want thsoe Botox bruises to show!


12 posted on 10/13/2004 5:12:58 PM PDT by CAluvdubya
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To: jwalsh07
"West Virginia will vote for Bush because John Kerry is a social liberal."

I hope you are correct. West Virginians do love their government handouts. I hope that Bush wins so I can watch the Charleston Gazette have a meltdown.
13 posted on 10/13/2004 5:13:49 PM PDT by k omalley (Caro Enim Mea, Vere est Cibus, et Sanguis Meus, Vere est Potus)
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To: Brilliant

Good point. West Virginia is socially conservative, but economically labor-liberal and, while fiercely patriotic, leans isolationist on foreign issues.


14 posted on 10/13/2004 5:14:04 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued
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To: Clintonfatigued

Click the logo to donate to Swift Boat Veterans for Truth!

15 posted on 10/13/2004 5:14:42 PM PDT by petercooper (Everything I ever needed to know about Islam, I learned on 9-11-01.)
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To: All

They're talking about ohio on O'Reilly now


16 posted on 10/13/2004 5:15:04 PM PDT by CAluvdubya
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To: Clintonfatigued

The NRA endorsement should help here...and in a number of other places. I just hope they rachet up the stakes for their members.


17 posted on 10/13/2004 5:15:05 PM PDT by Republican Wildcat
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To: DM1

"Ohio concerns me...any new info as to put my fears to rest?"

A guy on an earlier thread said he 'heard' the Bush internals show them +8 in Ohio


18 posted on 10/13/2004 5:16:59 PM PDT by spacejunkie
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To: Republican Wildcat

Ohio had the biggest rally for Bush last week. 150,000 people. Shows a lot of support.


19 posted on 10/13/2004 5:18:59 PM PDT by CAluvdubya
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To: Galtoid
If you want a FANTASTIC assessment of state registration and polling trends go to Jay Cost's blogspot (http://jaycost.blogspot.com/).

His assessment is that the GOP lost, proportionally, 1.5% less in the new voter registration drives (with more "indies" registering), and that they landed mostly in Bernalillo County. He concludes that Bush can win NM.

Likewise, his analysis of Minnesota is that the GOP counties have grown much faster than the Dem counties, and while you can't say MN is "trending Republican," it is much stronger than it was in 2000 for Bush.

Anyway, I mention this because Jay had a really critical blog the other day on Kerry sitting in NM and basically ceding campaign time. He doesn't think this at all looks like a campaign that is as confident as it lets on.

20 posted on 10/13/2004 5:21:19 PM PDT by LS
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To: Janan Ganesh

But isn't there a gay marriage issue on the ballot which could bring out alot of social conservatives who sat out in 2000?


21 posted on 10/13/2004 5:22:10 PM PDT by MHT
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To: spacejunkie

That's a second-hand report. I'd be more confident with 4-6 right now.


22 posted on 10/13/2004 5:22:43 PM PDT by LS
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To: LS

he did say it came from the ohio campaign chairman I do believe.


23 posted on 10/13/2004 5:23:47 PM PDT by spacejunkie
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To: LS

I heard on the radio that the Kerry people are very Happy lately - bordering on Smug
this is not good news
hopefully whatever they think is happening they are incorrect


24 posted on 10/13/2004 5:25:32 PM PDT by DM1
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To: Janan Ganesh
You have two polls---ARG and Chicago Tribune---which have a horrible track record and which show Kerry up.

You have Rasmussen's state polls, which, I have to admit, were close in 2002, and the last Columbus Post Dispatch and Mason Dixon that had Bush comfortably up (4-6). My last internals, which are now 10 days old, were Bush by 8. But I'm not confident going with that number today, only because I don't have newer info.

I heard the other 8 point number second hand. May be right, may be wrong. Given all that, I think the ARG/Tribune polls are pretty worthless and that Bush is in the 4-6% lead range.

25 posted on 10/13/2004 5:25:37 PM PDT by LS
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To: k omalley
When government handouts go head to head with homosexual marriage, they lose. A lot of God fearing democrats in them hills and they ain't voting for a guy like Kerry.

JMHO of course.

26 posted on 10/13/2004 5:26:57 PM PDT by jwalsh07 (Always ask yourself, does this pass the Global Test?)
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To: DM1
They are delusional. Cameron on FOX said that they were still having to work (wish I could remember his exact words) on Michigan and Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and Iowa! THAT FOUR GORE STATES. Then they "hoped" they could "pick off" Ohio or Florida.

They are SMUG over that???? That tells me that MI and PA are completely in play, and that Kerry is really concerned about WI. In fact, they have sent IL staff to WI to try to recover.

27 posted on 10/13/2004 5:27:20 PM PDT by LS
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To: DM1
I heard on the radio that the Kerry people are very Happy lately - bordering on Smug

Democrats leave in a delusional world.

They will turn vicious on Nov.3 when they have to face reality.

Remember how they acted in 2000?, 2002?

28 posted on 10/13/2004 5:30:46 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration
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To: fortheDeclaration
Democrats leave in a delusional world.

Correction: should be 'live' not 'leave'.

29 posted on 10/13/2004 5:32:16 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration
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To: LS

For some reason Bush pulled ads from PA surprised me since i thought it was competetive


30 posted on 10/13/2004 5:38:03 PM PDT by DM1
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To: LS
"Am I the only one who sees how ludicrous his position has become? He has to steal NH, somehow steal OH or FL, and keep every one of Algore's 2000 states. Yet MO is totally off the table, as is AZ, NC, and AR, and WI is nearly gone. (IMHO, it is safe right now).

MO, AZ, NC, AR were all W's in 2000, WI is a blue with a heavy lean to us. My take is, baring a catastrophe, W wins in the 290-320 EV range. Also, for what its worth, I spoke to a black political activist friend in Missouri a couple of nights ago, he is definitely wired into the democratic machine, and he eluded to the fact that there were thousands of new black voters in MO, WI, VA and PA registered in a stealth manner that could be the difference in a close race, and he also said that the Muslim vote that leaned to W in 2K is heavily going to go for the Kerry fraud ticket...I pray that it is not enough to alter what really, really is a crucial election for the sake of our nation.

31 posted on 10/13/2004 6:00:39 PM PDT by loveitor.. ("I will leave with the greatest love for this country of ours..." Ronald Reagan)
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To: LS
Kerry winnning OH & NH. is plausible and would put us in the hole.

But what is not spoken of is that WI is looking Bush and IA is in play to say the least.. My analysis starts with Bush having a margin of 9 votes (2000 states alone).
Taking WI makes +19; losing OH makes -1; losing NH means -5.
IA with 7 EVs or NM (lost last time by under 400 votes) with 5 would wind up with a Bush victory.
So in a worse-case scenario, it's easy to arrive at a way out of the box.
32 posted on 10/13/2004 6:00:41 PM PDT by SolomoninSouthDakota
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To: SolomoninSouthDakota

Hehehe. You are forgetting that one little Maine district, that will vote one elector for Bush, no matter what!


33 posted on 10/13/2004 6:18:58 PM PDT by LS
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To: Galtoid
Kerry left VA yesterday.

His folks left a few weeks ago.

34 posted on 10/13/2004 6:34:08 PM PDT by Coop (In memory of a true hero - Pat Tillman)
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To: fortheDeclaration

No you were right initially. They should all leave and go into their delusional world for good. Give us a break, please!


35 posted on 10/13/2004 7:46:21 PM PDT by SolomoninSouthDakota
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To: Clintonfatigued

West VA is has similar demographics to key swing regions in PA and OH. If Bush is winning West Va, then he must be doing fine in OH and keeping PA competitive.


36 posted on 10/13/2004 7:57:30 PM PDT by Kuksool (Get Your Souls To The Polls In November)
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To: Clintonfatigued

Bush has every church organized in WV - you're going to see another 'Georgia' the last 72 hours in WV ...


37 posted on 10/13/2004 7:59:34 PM PDT by 11th_VA (John Kerry - America's first European ruler since King George)
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To: 11th_VA

That is good news. If Republicans would rethink their position on free trade, they could effect a realignment in WV.


38 posted on 10/13/2004 8:02:45 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued
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To: LS

Any idea on how much Bush is winning that one Maine district by? I've scarcely seen anything on that.


39 posted on 10/13/2004 8:07:07 PM PDT by cons_Mark
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To: Clintonfatigued
That is good news. If Republicans would rethink their position on free trade, they could effect a realignment in WV

You'r right - The election would be over in PA and OH as well !

40 posted on 10/13/2004 8:07:14 PM PDT by 11th_VA (John Kerry - America's first European ruler since King George)
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To: LS

MI, MN, WI, IA, and PA have >50% job approval for Bush. That predicts a Bush win when the undecided's decide.

Bush is also running ahead several points in the PA suburbs this time. He lost the suburbs in 2000.


41 posted on 10/13/2004 8:53:56 PM PDT by Hermann the Cherusker
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To: DM1

Bush hasn't pulled ads in PA. We're still seeing them in Pittsburgh, Harrisburg, and Philadelphia.


42 posted on 10/13/2004 8:54:43 PM PDT by Hermann the Cherusker
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To: Kuksool

West Virginia is more democratic than either PA outside Philly or Ohio. I agree though, the same issues are in play there for voters Kerry should win - coal and steel. Bush has taken care of these industries. The Democrats have an 8 year record of neglect. Bush is leading in SW PA.


43 posted on 10/13/2004 8:57:33 PM PDT by Hermann the Cherusker
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To: Hermann the Cherusker

Has the polling data from internals or media outlets indicted any kind of inroads in Montgomery, Delware, Bucks, Berks counties? If Kerry gets over 60% of Philly Metro area, then he wins the Keystone state.


44 posted on 10/13/2004 8:58:39 PM PDT by Kuksool (Get Your Souls To The Polls In November)
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To: Clintonfatigued; 11th_VA
That is good news. If Republicans would rethink their position on free trade, they could effect a realignment in WV.

Were you the only two people who missed Bush imposing Steel tarriffs and giving a big boost to revitalizing the steel industry there? The bigest beneficiaries were Bethlehem Steel (Coatesville and Conshohocken in PA), LTV Steel (Cleveland), Wierton Steel (Wierton, WV and Steubenville, OH), National Steel (Detroit and E. St Louis), and Rouge Steel (Detroit). Concomittant with this has been benefits in terms of a new Coke plant in southern Ohio, revitalization in the Minnesota and Michigan iron fields.

Notice the states really benefitting here - PA, OH, WV, MI, MN. Imagine that!

Its hard to miss if you work in the industry how many steel mills, coke plants, and mines closed between 1992 and 2000, and how almost none have under Bush since 2001.

Helps the railroaders and coal miners and limestone quarriers too.

45 posted on 10/13/2004 9:03:58 PM PDT by Hermann the Cherusker
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To: Kuksool

The only polling for this area I saw showed Kerry at 51 and Bush at 40, I believe, but this was with a very tiny smaple of a statewide poll, so not reliable.

SurveyUSA shows Bush with a 3 point lead in the suburbs statewide. The Philadelphia suburbs are 2.5 million strong. Pittsburgh is closer to 1 million. Harrisburg, Lancaster and York are around 1 million together. Allentown and Scranton are another 1 million together. There are no other real suburbs. A 20 point Kerry lead in the Philly area would not produce a 3 point Bush lead statewide without a 25 point lead the other way in the rest of the suburbs of the state (which is not true, I think - maybe in Harrisburg-York-Lancaster, but not in Pittsburgh and Scranton).


46 posted on 10/13/2004 9:16:06 PM PDT by Hermann the Cherusker
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To: Galtoid

If Kerry needs to campaign in New Jersey, then W is doing MUCH better than the polls are telling us.


47 posted on 10/13/2004 10:59:17 PM PDT by RockinRight (John Kerry is the wrong candidate, for the wrong country, at the wrong time)
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To: DM1

I've written off PA. W will get WI and IA, probably New Mexico, maybe Minnesota, and maybe NJ.


48 posted on 10/13/2004 11:04:55 PM PDT by RockinRight (John Kerry is the wrong candidate, for the wrong country, at the wrong time)
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To: Clintonfatigued

Explain to West Virginians what Kyoto was all about and Kerry's alleged even quasi-support of it, and WV and its 5 votes belong to us.

I am sure Rockefeller is doing everything in his power to not let it get out.

If you know anyone in WV, PA, or Ohio, get the word out.


49 posted on 10/13/2004 11:05:49 PM PDT by EERinOK
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To: montanus

But a victorious night for the Mountaineers.

I think Uconn is a good upstart program that will be very good in a few years.

I am diehard WVU and am surprised at how rotten WVU played, especially in the first half.

Lots of work to do yet for both teams, but I see potential.


50 posted on 10/13/2004 11:08:58 PM PDT by EERinOK
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