Posted on 10/14/2004 7:14:31 AM PDT by TigerLikesRooster
Putin covers his bets
By Sergei Blagov
MOSCOW - Russian President Vladimir Putin's upcoming visit to China is expected to improve what is officially described as a strategic partnership between the two countries, one driven by both economic and geopolitical considerations. In strengthening this bilateral relationship, Russia appears to be countering mounting pressure from Washington concerning Moscow's internal affairs.
Putin is due to visit China from Thursday to Saturday this week for talks with President Hu Jintao, with discussions expected to focus on economic and strategic issues. Economic agreements to be signed cover space flight, atomic energy, engineering manufacturing, high technology, information technology and communications.
Last month, Moscow promised to supply more crude oil to China, while Beijing pledged to invest US$12 billion in Russia's infrastructure and energy sector by 2020. But despite economic incentives, Beijing is yet to secure a clear commitment from Moscow to build an oil pipeline from Siberia, a long-standing issue between the two countries. Russia has promised to build the oil pipeline to China as an extra stretch to its Pacific pipeline, but a final decision is unlikely to materialize soon.
Meanwhile, Russian officials have suggested bilateral trade could hit $20 billion this year, reaching the goal set by the two countries last year - twice the level of 2001. The nations have pledged to push bilateral trade past the $60 billion mark by 2010, although that would mean no less than the same robust 20% annual growth rate.
Furthermore, a deal supporting Russia's accession to the World Trade Organization is scheduled to be inked during Putin's three-day visit. In response, Russia is expected to confirm Moscow's loyal stance toward China over Taiwan and Tibet.
Apart from economic matters, Russia has geopolitical interests for improving ties with China as Moscow is growing increasingly concerned with mounting US pressure on the Kremlin. In recent weeks, Moscow has described comments on a variety of events in Russia by the United States, including moves to limit elections and boost centralized controls, as "interference in Russia's internal affairs".
Notably, in their first debate, US President George W Bush and Democratic contender Senator John Kerry voiced that Russia was rolling back democratic reforms. Kerry criticized Putin's recent moves to strengthen domestic centralized controls as part of Russia's "war on terror". "I regret what's happened in these past months. And I think it goes beyond just the response to terror," he said in the debate. "No, I don't think it's okay and said so publicly," Bush said. However, Bush said he had "a good relation with Vladimir" and regarded Putin as "a strong ally in the war on terror".
As Russia-related issues surfaced during the US presidential campaign, Russian politicians sounded dismissive. The leader of the nationalist Rodina party, Dmitry Rogozin, said Bush and Kerry should mind their own business. "What we are doing is our own internal affair," he said.
Moreover, concerns have been voiced in Moscow that relations with the US could decline under the Democrats. Russian media have speculated that Kerry, if elected next month, might put extra pressure on Moscow - and even include Russia in a new "axis of evil", along with Iran and North Korea.
Indeed, Democrats have voiced stronger criticism of Russia. "We're concerned that Putin is getting a blank check," said Richard C Holbrooke, a former US ambassador to the United Nations who is advising Kerry. "We need good relations with Russia, but we ought to have some standards here," he said.
Incidentally, when citing his overseas travel in the first debate, Kerry made a mistake by saying the cells of the KGB headquarters in Moscow had been "under Treblinka Square". He must have meant Lubyanka Square, as Treblinka was a Nazi death camp in Poland.
Intentional or not, the mistake came as an ominous sign for Moscow. For Putin, other top officials and former fellow KGB officers, Lubyanka Square bears no bad meaning as the site of the KGB headquarters. Hence Kerry's confusing Lubyanka with Treblinka sounds almost blasphemous in today's Russia.
Little wonder that Russia tried to play on the US presidential campaign in favor of the Republicans. In June, Russia announced that it supplied the US with intelligence that Saddam Hussein was planning to carry out terrorist attacks against the US. The announcement was interpreted as a sort of justification of the US-led war on Saddam, and the Kremlin's attempt to come to Bush's aid on the eve of the US elections.
With this background, the strategic partnership with China may be viewed by Russia as a way to counter US pressure, a sort of contingency plan in the event of a Kerry victory. Talk of a "strategic triangle", or troika, together with China and India, could also serve this purpose.
Putin is due to visit India in December, and the foreign ministers of India, Russia and China are to meet at an international conference in Kazakhstan on October 21 to discuss their bid to create a multilateral world. The meeting on "Cooperation and Confidence-Building in Asia", to be held in Almaty, Kazakhstan, is part of their annual consultations. The regular consultations among three of the world's major nations have set off renewed speculation about the "strategic triangle", first proposed by then Russian prime minister Yevgeny Primakov during a visit to India in 1998.
Russia, China and India have so far refrained from publicly discussing, let alone endorsing, the idea. However, since 2002 the foreign ministers of the three countries have met regularly on the sidelines of international conferences to strengthen cooperation.
However, despite its overtures toward China and India, the Kremlin has been careful to avoid making the impression that it is forming an anti-US coalition, indicating that Russia could hardly afford anything that could be interpreted as a consistent affront to Washington.
Based in Moscow, Sergei Blagov covers Russia and post-Soviet states with special attention to Asia-related issues. He has contributed to Asia Times Online since 1996. Between 1983 and 1997, he spent some seven years in Southeast Asia, mainly in Vietnam. In 2001 and 2002, Nova Science Publishers, New York, published his two books on Vietnamese history.
China is Russia's insurance against Kerry regime!
Russians are good at gloom and grudges. They'd be better off figuring out what to do about Beslan and the Chechyns. I wonder what is festering there.
For the record, NO ONE has done more to damage American relations with Russia than Holbrooke, who was the genius behind clinton's attack on Serbia. When it turned out that Russia was powerless to protect its "little brothers," the Serbs, they were deeply shamed and I'm sure are still full of resentment. Weasley Clarke, Richard Cohen, and Maddy Albright all share some of the responsibility for what may have been the stupidest foreign policy move since Yalta.
Geez, who doesn't? This guy rubs people the wrong way just by breathing. He is totally unlikeable.
I agree. Holbrooke's policy was responsible for the rise of Putin and his KGB brotherhood. He made them realized their cherished goal, that is, returning to power as competent and professional people, not ruthless and sinister agent of oppression. Holbrooke is not in a position to gripe about it. He(probably along with Hitlery) made it happen.
As usual, the media gave Kerry a pass on that one since they probably missed it themselves in their haste to tell us how brilliant he is.
Meanwhile, they fret over the way Bush pronounces "nuclear."
After last night's debate, I think Teresa doesn't like Kerry too much either :)
"So Putin fears that Kerry could turn out to be another Clinton."
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Worse than Clinton. In many ways. Putin is not so "unaware" after all. And Clinton was/is far smarter (more clever) than Kerry...
Russians don't know what Kerry is going to do over the next 4 years if elected. They pretty much know what Bush is going to do. Uncertainty is anxiety.
If we end up with Kerry I am going to be sick.
ping
Oh, they may know what Kerry will do. Stumble their way into Russia's doorstep and tear things apart. That is what happened in Balkans and Chechnya under Clinton. Odds are high that it will happen again under Kerry. This is on top of Kerry being the devil they don't know while Bush is the one they know well.
Jintao? Jintao? Sounds like a line from a Jackie Chan movie to me.
If he loses I see the big 'D' and there is a pre-nup.
What? You think she didn't like the joke about her money? ("marrying up") ;)
The rest of the world claims (actually its the liberal controlled media in the rest of the world) that the world hates America because of Bush. However can you imagine the chaos Kerry would introduce to the world political scene when faced with real pressure?
Just look on his face after the debate - he looks like some young schoolboy that been sent up to the principal's office for a flogging!!
The old Soviet regime were the original funders of the Islamo-terrorists. However, the Soviets made the mistake of invading Afghanistan, and now the Islamofascists are after the Russians now too.
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