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Global Warming Bombshell (Moonbat Mathematics Revealed)
MIT Technology Review ^ | 15 October 2004 | Richard Muller

Posted on 10/15/2004 2:39:25 AM PDT by Goat Locker Freeper

Progress in science is sometimes made by great discoveries. But science also advances when we learn that something we believed to be true isn’t. <>

In the scientific and political debate over global warming, the latest wrong piece may be the “hockey stick,” .... This plot purports to show that we are now experiencing the warmest climate in a millennium, and that the earth, after remaining cool for centuries during the medieval era, suddenly began to heat up about 100 years ago....

-SNIP-

But now a shock: independent Canadian scientists... have uncovered a fundamental mathematical flaw in the computer program that was used to produce the hockey stick. In his original publications of the stick, Mann purported to use a standard method known as principal component analysis, or PCA, to find the dominant features in a set of more than 70 different climate records.

But it wasn’t so. McIntyre and McKitrick obtained part of the program that Mann used, and they found serious problems. Not only does the program not do conventional PCA, but it handles data normalization in a way that can only be described as mistaken.

Now comes the real shocker. This improper normalization procedure tends to emphasize any data that do have the hockey stick shape, and to suppress all data that do not. To demonstrate this effect, McIntyre and McKitrick created some meaningless test data that had, on average, no trends. This method of generating random data is called “Monte Carlo” analysis, after the famous casino, and it is widely used in statistical analysis to test procedures. When McIntyre and McKitrick fed these random data into the Mann procedure, out popped a hockey stick shape!

-SNIP-

Suddenly the hockey stick, the poster-child of the global warming community, turns out to be an artifact of poor mathematics.

(Excerpt) Read more at technologyreview.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; Government; Technical
KEYWORDS: climatechange; energy; environment; globalwarming; junkscience; mathematics; moonbats; science; treehuggers
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Standby for Moonbat hysteria! (And, of course, IT'S ALL BUSH'S FAULT!)
1 posted on 10/15/2004 2:39:25 AM PDT by Goat Locker Freeper
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To: Goat Locker Freeper

to marktwain


2 posted on 10/15/2004 2:56:23 AM PDT by riverrunner
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To: Goat Locker Freeper

As I have been saying for years, there is no such thing as "earth sciences."


3 posted on 10/15/2004 2:57:39 AM PDT by CasearianDaoist
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To: Goat Locker Freeper; PatrickHenry

Thanks for the article. Here is the critical analysis http://www.uoguelph.ca/~rmckitri/research/fallupdate04/update.fall04.html


4 posted on 10/15/2004 2:58:55 AM PDT by AdmSmith
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To: Goat Locker Freeper

*cough* ice age *cough*

But apparently thats not enough evidence that the Earth has its own global cycle.


5 posted on 10/15/2004 3:01:08 AM PDT by Crazieman (Islam. Religion of peace, and they'll kill you to prove it.)
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To: Goat Locker Freeper

....and Haliburton's


6 posted on 10/15/2004 3:04:46 AM PDT by kb2614 ( You have everything to fear, including fear itself. - The new DNC slogan)
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To: Goat Locker Freeper
This improper normalization procedure tends to emphasize any data that do have the hockey stick shape, and to suppress all data that do not.

The writer implies that those writing the program didn't know what they were doing, but perhaps they knew EXACTLY what they were doing, i.e., cooking the books in their favor.

7 posted on 10/15/2004 3:13:06 AM PDT by libertylover
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To: Goat Locker Freeper
Application of statistical methods to climate modeling may be a useful tool for limiting the parameters to deal with, and when no important aspect is overlooked, may be expected to yield reproducible results.

But to get the results that fit the observations, there is something introduced called a "finagle factor", that when applied, voila!, the "right answer" magically appears. This is a universal practice that runs throughout ALL scientific endeavor, when there are more unknowns than knowns, the human tendency to build myth as an explanation.

In integral calculus, the process is the reverse of differential calculus, but to cover variations in outcome, there always has to be room for the "jigger factor", expressed as k, from the German word konstant.

8 posted on 10/15/2004 3:20:40 AM PDT by alloysteel
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To: kb2614

and Cheney's


9 posted on 10/15/2004 3:20:59 AM PDT by TeddyCon
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To: Goat Locker Freeper

Marking for later reading.


10 posted on 10/15/2004 3:32:59 AM PDT by Blue Eyes (Operating behind enemy lines in Pajamastan.)
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To: AdmSmith
It seems someone posted a similar article a few hours earlier:
Global Warming Bombshell: A prime piece of evidence ... turns out to be artifact of poor math.
11 posted on 10/15/2004 3:35:29 AM PDT by PatrickHenry (Hic amor, haec patria est.)
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To: libertylover

Junk science at its best. One of our Objectivist or Sovietologist friends here ought to comment on the parallels with what Soviets did during the last century. Namely, trying to use political ideas to achieve scientific results.

IIRC, it had something to do with communist ideology and wheat crops. The result being failed crops and starving people. As the first premise was ideological rather than scientific, the failure was explained in communist ideological terms and the failures repeated.

The upshot here is that these moonbat "scientists" are in a headlong, mad rush to crush modernity and send us all back to their medievel agrarian society.

And, they'll lie, cheat, fudge facts, skew data, and whatever else is necessary to achieve the desired end result.

Anyone care to theorize on the nexus of fascist islam, radical environmentalists, and socialism?


12 posted on 10/15/2004 3:36:24 AM PDT by Goat Locker Freeper ("Si vis pacem, para bellum.")
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To: TeddyCon

These guys probably are NOT deliberately fudging the data. Although I only have the math necessary to finish a degree in chemistry, and not the PhD in stat alot of these people have, I DO have some experience with this type of programming, having mucked around in the financial markets for years, and having worked as an environmental engineer.

Normalizaton of data (or "curve fitting") is also a real problem when you are trying to analyze data from the financial markets or environmental trends. You are looking for patterns of linear regression (is there market price behavior there that repeats itself with enough regularity that I should buy/sell, say, soybean futures at THIS point in the graph?). I call it the technological equivalent of reading chicken entrails to determine the future.
Anyway, the problem comes from the following.

1) The data is random
2) Within that random data are clear patterns

These seemingly contradictory statements have led some of the best minds and fastest computers and biggest players in the markets to crunch MOUNTAINS of data looking for a way to disprove item #1 above.

The lure is so strong that one is always tempted to look for a mathematical formula that will explain and predict the future. The problem is, that usually the formula only explains PAST patterns and is totally worthless to predict future behavior.

Though some folks who hawk environmental models have the same level of sleazy technoshysterism as the hacks bawling out their wares in Techical Analysis magazine, most of em are just blind to their own prejudiced conclusions. Therefore, they find patterns that TRULY ARE THERE, they are just curve fitted and not very useful.

Peer review is a great way to shut this stuff down as noted here.


13 posted on 10/15/2004 3:51:14 AM PDT by chronic_loser (Yeah? so what do I know?)
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To: Goat Locker Freeper

Hockey stick? I thought the NHL players were locked out.


14 posted on 10/15/2004 4:00:05 AM PDT by aardvark1 (Something was seared in my memory but I forgot what it was.)
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To: chronic_loser
"1) The data is random "

As a fellow chemist, I must point out that "the data ARE random" is the correct usage.

15 posted on 10/15/2004 4:08:11 AM PDT by Wonder Warthog (The Hog of Steel)
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To: Goat Locker Freeper

Read Gross & Levitt's 'Higher Superstition' or 'Fight From Science and Reason' or Noretta Koertge's 'House Built on Sand' or, best of all, Alan Sokal's essay 'Transgresing the Boundaries'. It'll all be clear.


16 posted on 10/15/2004 4:09:32 AM PDT by dhuffman@awod.com (The conspiracy of ignorance masquerades as common sense.)
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To: Goat Locker Freeper

Environmental Wacko Ping!


17 posted on 10/15/2004 4:10:09 AM PDT by elephantman96
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To: Goat Locker Freeper

18 posted on 10/15/2004 4:19:30 AM PDT by MonroeDNA (In Islam, a woman can be married at any age even when she is a newly born baby.)
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To: Goat Locker Freeper

What took MIT so long??

John Daly debunked Mann and his "Hockey Stick" more than four years ago. For his efforts, Daly was crucified by the global warming advocates. Too bad he didn't live to see this.

Well done John....


19 posted on 10/15/2004 4:21:56 AM PDT by daylate-dollarshort
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To: Goat Locker Freeper

Is this what they are talking about with "fuzzy math"?


20 posted on 10/15/2004 4:36:37 AM PDT by Reaganghost
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To: Goat Locker Freeper

Don't these upstarts realize it's not the nature of the evidence but the seriousness of the charge?


21 posted on 10/15/2004 4:49:01 AM PDT by Gritty ("When Kerry says 'we have to get back to the place we were', he means the '90s"-Mark Steyn)
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To: Ethan_Allen1777

Pingareeno


22 posted on 10/15/2004 4:54:13 AM PDT by Straight Vermonter (Liberalism: The irrational fear of self reliance.)
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To: chronic_loser

You said it very well. When people want to find a particular result within random data, they will tend to do so.


23 posted on 10/15/2004 4:54:59 AM PDT by marktwain
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To: Goat Locker Freeper
"Their reports may be based on faulty data, but their premise is still valid."

Signed:

Dan Blather

24 posted on 10/15/2004 4:55:05 AM PDT by trebb (Ain't God good . . .)
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To: Goat Locker Freeper

I know a two things for certain: The Sun rises in the east and everything the left says is a lie.


25 posted on 10/15/2004 4:56:39 AM PDT by ZeitgeistSurfer
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To: daylate-dollarshort

Well done John....

Amen to that. Thanks John.


26 posted on 10/15/2004 5:00:29 AM PDT by Reaganghost
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To: Goat Locker Freeper

Thanks for posting this. Few things brighten my day more than running across something sure to frost the half-baked globull warmers.


27 posted on 10/15/2004 5:19:09 AM PDT by Reaganghost
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To: Goat Locker Freeper
Suddenly the hockey stick, the poster-child of the global warming community, turns out to be an artifact of poor mathematics

That is being charitable. Occam's Razor requires the other obvious explanation to be true: the procedure was tailored to get the desired results. This would require great mathematics to hide the means so well for so long. Fraud, pure and simple.

For many years now, I have been trying to find a reasonable explanation for why "environmentalists" exist. Other than the simple pleasure of controlling other people's lives. I have yet to find one.
Saving the world is not an option. Delusion and ignorance on such a scale is simply too unreal to accept.

28 posted on 10/15/2004 5:21:22 AM PDT by Publius6961 (The most abundant things in the universe are hydrogen and stupidity.)
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To: Goat Locker Freeper

The global warming theroy is not a result of science, but a result of POLITICAL SCIENCE.


29 posted on 10/15/2004 5:25:49 AM PDT by feedback doctor (Fundamentalist Liberals, Fundamentalist Muslims, the only difference is the clothes)
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To: Crazieman
But apparently thats not enough evidence that the Earth has its own global cycle.

Nonsense!!! The sporty utility vehicle was, fortunately, there 20,000 years ago to pull us out of the ice-age. But, today we simply need to get rid of them because there over doing the warming effect now. We need to start building something today that will have the Left screaming of global cooling in the far future.

30 posted on 10/15/2004 5:29:37 AM PDT by LowCountryJoe (Go, Willie, go!)
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To: Wonder Warthog

Love your Personal Philosophy, which appears to be less of a philosophy and more of factual reality, and applies whether data are or is. Global warming in the past was overcome in the single instant of the explosion of Krakatoa and other past vocanic activity which caused the loss of or severely limited the next growing season in much of the fertile regions of earth. People who postulate and pontificate about a global warming, have an agenda that does not include the success and well being of the inhabitants of the planet, IMHO.


31 posted on 10/15/2004 5:30:02 AM PDT by wita
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To: alloysteel
This is a universal practice that runs throughout ALL scientific endeavor, when there are more unknowns than knowns, the human tendency to build myth as an explanation.

In all fairness, that is not true of real science. A real scientist goes where the data takes him, no matter how silly the result. A real scientist knows when the results are silly and seeks the reason why and iterates, and tries again, or seeks alternative approaches to a solution.

Junk science, on the other hand, science with an agenda, is right up there with political chicanery, and worse than useless.

32 posted on 10/15/2004 5:31:21 AM PDT by Publius6961 (The most abundant things in the universe are hydrogen and stupidity.)
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To: MonroeDNA
That graph image is false. Why?

Always look for the spike in temperatures which occurred during the 1930s. If that spike is not shown, then something is wrong with the presentation.

33 posted on 10/15/2004 5:33:24 AM PDT by Hunble
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To: Goat Locker Freeper
Similar thread thread here
34 posted on 10/15/2004 5:33:48 AM PDT by Arrowhead1952 (Anyone who votes for the john / john ticket is crazy.)
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To: Wonder Warthog
As a fellow chemist, I must point out that "the data ARE random" is the correct usage.

Only if you're a limey.

35 posted on 10/15/2004 5:34:37 AM PDT by Publius6961 (The most abundant things in the universe are hydrogen and stupidity.)
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To: Goat Locker Freeper

GIGO


36 posted on 10/15/2004 5:35:16 AM PDT by Samwise (It must be scary to be trapped in John Kerry's mind. No wonder he's nuts.)
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To: feedback doctor

Excellent, and so true.


37 posted on 10/15/2004 5:35:34 AM PDT by wita
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To: Goat Locker Freeper

Moonbat Mathematics? They must have been using the

REVOLUTIONARY MOONSTICK SLIDE RULE!

38 posted on 10/15/2004 5:35:56 AM PDT by Lonesome in Massachussets (NYT Headline: "The Protocols of the Learned Elders of CBS", Fake But Accurate, Experts Say)
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To: dhuffman@awod.com
Read Gross & Levitt's 'Higher Superstition' or 'Fight From Science and Reason' or Noretta Koertge's...

Might that be "Flight from Science and Reason"?

39 posted on 10/15/2004 5:37:45 AM PDT by Publius6961 (The most abundant things in the universe are hydrogen and stupidity.)
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To: Goat Locker Freeper

bump


40 posted on 10/15/2004 5:38:19 AM PDT by ConservativeVoice
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To: Goat Locker Freeper
First, they plant red legged frogs and whip snakes on land that is scheduled to be developed. Now, they plant "hockey sticks" in statistical probability programs?

Tree huggers are such fun loving pranksters/s

41 posted on 10/15/2004 5:44:36 AM PDT by RGSpincich
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To: Goat Locker Freeper

I'll have to show this to my mathmatician/statistician husband (Sir SuziQ). He'll get a real charge out of it! He absolutely HATES it when folks fudge numbers to support their own personal agendas!


42 posted on 10/15/2004 5:44:55 AM PDT by SuziQ (Bush in 2004-Because we MUST!!!)
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To: Lonesome in Massachussets

BUMP!


43 posted on 10/15/2004 5:45:04 AM PDT by Publius6961 (The most abundant things in the universe are hydrogen and stupidity.)
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To: Goat Locker Freeper
CORRECTIONS TO THE MANN et. al. (1998) PROXY DATA BASE AND NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC AVERAGE TEMPERATURE SERIES

The data upon which Kyoto is based (Mann, Bradley, Hughes: Global-Scale Temperature Patterns and Climate Forcing Over the Past Six Centuries, Nature, No. 392, pp. 779-787, 1998) has been documented to be fraudulent by a recent paper published in the British journal "Energy & Environment" and available on the Internet at http://www.multi-science.co.uk/mcintyre_02.pdf

In their paper, titled "CORRECTIONS TO THE MANN et. al. (1998) PROXY DATA BASE AND NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC AVERAGE TEMPERATURE SERIES," Canadian researchers Stephen McIntyre and Ross McKitrick examined the data set of proxies of past climate used by Mann, Bradley and Hughes for the estimation of temperatures from 1400 to 1980. McIntyre and McKitrick determined that the Mann data "contains collation errors, unjustifiable truncation or extrapolation of source data, obsolete data, geographical location errors, incorrect calculation of principal components and other quality control defects."

Applying the Mann methodology to the corrected data "yielded a Northern Hemisphere temperature index in which the late 20th century is unexceptional compared to the preceding centuries."

The fact that Kyoto is based upon fraudulent data should be troubling to anyone without some hidden agenda.


44 posted on 10/15/2004 6:08:10 AM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum (Drug prohibition laws help fund terrorism.)
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To: Goat Locker Freeper

I've always thought that the global warming disaster scenarios were the result of computer models going ballistic. I've written many physics simulations and they're only valid for a relatively short amount of time (iterations). Energy conservation has to be strictly enforced or you get runaway, etc.


45 posted on 10/15/2004 6:12:06 AM PDT by mikegi
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To: Publius6961
"Only if you're a limey."

Wrong--born and rasied in South Louisiana. Now admittedly, my dissertation advisor "was" a Brit, but I also cannot recall any instances of hearing "data is" from any of my analytical chemist colleagues at professional meetings. Maybe there are fields of science other than analytical chemistry where such (incorrect) usage is the norm, but to us analytical chemists, "datum" is singular, and "data" is plural (and yes, I realize that in this specific case, "data" IS singular).

46 posted on 10/15/2004 6:27:29 AM PDT by Wonder Warthog (The Hog of Steel)
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To: Goat Locker Freeper

Doesn't matter.

The hockey stick will still be universally cited as fact 25 years from now.


47 posted on 10/15/2004 6:44:38 AM PDT by UnbelievingScumOnTheOtherSide (Give Them Liberty Or Give Them Death! - Islam Delenda Est! - Rumble thee forth...)
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To: Publius6961
"For many years now, I have been trying to find a reasonable explanation for why "environmentalists" exist. Other than the simple pleasure of controlling other people's lives. I have yet to find one."

Remember the first line of inquiry when trying to explain behavior is to follow the money. If you want lots of funding in any scientific disipline you need a crises. If there isn't one there many will create one. The louder you scream that the sky is falling the more money you get. This also helps explain why aids research gets over three times the funding Breast Cancer does.

48 posted on 10/15/2004 6:47:19 AM PDT by joebuck
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To: Goat Locker Freeper

Bookmark bump.


49 posted on 10/15/2004 6:50:30 AM PDT by FourtySeven (47)
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To: LowCountryJoe
"Nonsense!!! The sporty utility vehicle was, fortunately, there 20,000 years ago to pull us out of the ice-age. But, today we simply need to get rid of them because there over doing the warming effect now."

Couldn't we reverse the process by driving backwards for 10,000 years?

50 posted on 10/15/2004 6:52:57 AM PDT by joebuck
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