Skip to comments.TIPP Tracking Poll: Bush+4 (Monday Oct 18)
Posted on 10/18/2004 8:10:20 AM PDT by drangundsturm
Bush: 49% Kerry: 45%
Those are some good numbers considering the weekend polls prefer the whinny dems
Oh, no, this is awful. Kerry is killing us! It's over, it's over, wait...oh, Bush up four. Hmmm.
True, weekend polls are better for the rats.
This is good news!
However, I thought Zogby had it tied again...hmmmmm.
I guess Rasmussen will have to break the tie in the tracking poll wars, then, sometime in the next 45 minutes. Please note that Rasmussen calls more people than Zog and TIPP combined, so he tends to have less swing every day from statistical noise.
I notice Zogby has undecideds at nine percent.
I believe this is a net gain of +1 for Bush over the last few days. Overall trends looking good. I suspect we will see some really good state polls coming out by the end of the week.
This is good, closer to the magical 50%. This is a poll of likely voters, usually the undecideds will go for the challenger, so 50% is the promised land.
This may be more accurate than Gallup's 8% lead, but with most of the polls showing 3-6% leads for Bush, at least 4% seems likely. That's a landslide, folks.
And Kerry had his big chance to get his message to the voters with the three debates--and he blew it, or at least failed to capitalize on it. He will have a very difficult time turning the tide from here on in.
I want to see more of this MSM Kerry Mo!
But Zogby must be correct. After all, he has no bias and neither does his client, Reuters!
49% with nader in the race is already the promised land, but of course it's way too close to be comfortable. You would have to believe that 100% of the undecideds go for kerry, a statistical impossibility. He might get 70%, but not 100%.
Rasmussen and Zogby have a very close methodology. Only difference is the way they ask questions, Rasmussen is automated, Zogby has live operators. But other than that, they are identical to how they shape and form their polls.
As often as not, at the last minute, the "undecideds" go for the incumbent party in national races. ("Better the fool you know.") As they did in 2000. In regional races they usually go for the challenger.
I agree. Whatever he gained from debates (if anything) will be a distant memory by the end of this week. The race is returning to the 5-6% bush lead that was in effect before debate 1.
The state polls, which lag by about a week from the tracking polls, should start turning dramatically against kerry by the end of this week. The MSM will then turn on kerry for blowing what they feel was an obvious opportunity to unseat Bush. Dem faithful will be putting in calls to Dr. Kavorkian by this coming monday.
That is correct, there is a mistaken assumption that in presidential races the undecides got to the challenger....Decidedly untrue
They have been early the last few days...I wonder why the late reporting today??
Rasmussen has it tied at 47 today. Go figure.
good poll Bush leads, bad poll Kerry leads, the media is setting us up by reporting good numbers, the media is setting us up by reporting bad numbers, this poll included sunday, this poll over polled republicans, this poll over polled rats, this poll is run by a republican, this poll is run by a rat.
That's the problem with weekend polls...they skew dem. If Bush is tied on the weekend, then he will probably bounce back up during the week.
Steady as she goes. Reading this poll in conjunction with others, I'm starting to think that Kerry isn't going to clear the 46% barrier.
Bush/Cheney 4more years
Another thing: Matthew Dowd apparently said today that the Bush people also have the race at 49-45, matching their polling prior to the debates. Here is a link:
If they haven't made up their mind by now--they probably won't be voting.
I have a theory about Rasmussen. My theory is that his reported three day rolling average is almost a full day behind, so what we are actually seeing is the dropping off of last Wednesday's results and a handful of Thursday results, to be replaced by Saturday results and a handful of Sunday results. Last Wednesday seems to have been a very good day for President Bush, while Thursday seems to have been a very good day for Kerry (who had just been declared the winner of the debate, and the Mary Cheney backlash had not yet fully set in). If my theory is right, Bush will get an uptick tomorrow as the rest of the Thursday results drop off.
The reason I say this is that after each debate, Rasmussen made a point of saying that the next day of polling results, for the most part, didn't reflect interviews done on the night of the debate. My guess -- and I am not a premium member this year, but I was four years ago -- is that they need the extra time (essentially a full day) to analyze the data, do whatever demographic weighting that they do, and create the charts of breakdowns by various demographics and party affiliation that they do.
Good point. We see some polls showing a tie, some showing a bush lead. But it's been a long, long time since even an outlier has shown kerry leading.
Let's not get overconfident...several polls going into the the 2000 election had Bush winning, and Bush didn't win the popular vote.
The 2000 election was a bit of an exception because the NY Times released that DUI story just a week before the election. Bush was clearly leading before that story, and polls usually lag in their data by several days, so did not pick up the effect of that news fast enough.
It is not likely a similar skeleton will surface this year (although one never knows these days).
I doubt it. I was called for the Rasmussen poll about six weeks ago. Among the questions was one related to investments. The next day, Rasmussen reported the answers. I doubt very much that he separates some questions to report on on one day and other to report on the next day.
I don't know for a fact that my theory is right. I'm basing it primarily on comments from Rasmussen on days after each debate that the sample includes only a handful of interviews from the night of the debate. I think I also remembetr a few times when he said two days after the debate that the sample was the first one that included all of the interviews on the night of the debate. Thus my guess that his entire rolling sample is mostly one day behind (not completely, but mostly).
We will get an indicator tomorrow, when I I think was a very good Kerry day drops off.
trust me...they will float a "possible" skeleton...it will be the old "Bush paid for an abortion in college" rumor...
They are holding it for the right time...
But ... but ... I thought it was a "dead even" race!?
Simply stated, there are a lot less undecideds today than there were in June, and many of those former undecideds are now in the Bush camp compared to Kerry. The trend for Bush is fast closing on the point of no return, where it won't matter where the remaining undecideds go, Bush will already have enough to win.
Who's TIPP and what's their record?
What is this poll? Who does it? Etc.?
You are right Zogby is playing his hand close. Rasmussen is also showing a tied race. Bush is leading Kerry in most polls where as the tied polls are within the margin of error. I think that Kerry is stuck at around 45% Bush is at 50%. I think Bush still has the overall advantage. Iraq and National security are still the number one issues and President Bush leds in both those categories. Even 16% of Democrats believe Bush is a better leader. Not good for Kerry.
Actually you can thank Fox News Channel and Carl Cameron for that one.
let's get Bush over the 50% mark...
>>usually the undecideds will go for the challenger,
Pat Caddell said that was a myth
He said the undecideds end up not voting,
OR more often than not sticking with the 'safer' of the two choices.