For reference.
Posted on 10/18/2004 7:15:31 PM PDT by Rokke
I attended today's Bush rally in New Jersey. It was AWESOME. I read the live thread this evening. To answer some questions...the crowd was only 900 people. But that was capacity seating for the venue it was held in. Outside, were several thousand, all lined up simply to get a view of the President arriving and departing. Why was the venue so small? This was a policy speech, not a pep rally. Tickets were extremely limited. I got one for the simple reason that I showed up to the local RNC office to sign up for tickets, wearing my military flightsuit (I was on my way into work). The chief of that office felt it was so important to support the military that she scrounged an extra ticket for me. Otherwise, the crowd was mostly composed of Republican office holders, officials, campaign workers and big donors.
Everyone arrived within the scheduled arrival window, and filed through the appropriate screening devices. We knew the President had arrived when the entire building started to shake as his helicopters flew overhead. I was about 20 yards from the podium (for that matter, so was just about everyone else) and Bush entered the room to a rock star quality burst of wild applause. Clearly, the enthusiasm in the hall was apparent on TV, as evidenced by the many comments on the live thread. Applause were spontaneous and loud, but people sensed the importance of what he was saying, so most were sitting on the edge of their seats when they weren't giving standing O's.
I don't need to rehash what Bush said, but I will editorialize about the importance of what he said. Clearly, the Bush campaign is realigning the focus of the final weeks of this campaign to the war on terror. As Bush correctly pointed out, that is a theme that really hits home in states like New Jersey. It is also a theme that Kerry is incredibly weak on. And it is a theme whose events will probably dominate our news for the remaining two weeks. With the first couple days of Ramadan behind us, things in Iraq may calm just a little bit. Historically, the beginning and end of Ramadan is when the most violence occurs. Our recent assaults on Fallujah and elsewhere have blunted much of the expected violence, and we now have the upperhand on what happens next during the next couple weeks. That is good for this country and for Iraq. We'll see how it plays out in the news. But the Kerry campaign must now respond to Bush's speech. A Kerry spokesman said they will be doing just that during the next couple days. As long as the Kerry campaign is responding, they do not have the upperhand. And if you think they will have an effective response, you need to take a look at the internals of every poll taken this campaign season. Even in the worst polls taken after the first debate, Bush DOMINATES Kerry as the man to handle our nation's security and the war on terror. If that is the focus of the next two weeks, that is good news for the good guys.
Some concluding comments...yeah this was a crowd of Bush diehards, but you should have seen the enthusiasm of the folks who didn't even have tickets to get in. People LOVE this President. They are AFRAID for our future if Kerry gets elected. After his speech, Bush drove out and shook hands with the supporters outside. There was clear affection flowing in both directions. Nobody moved until after his helicopter took off and flew in a low circle over the entire crowd. Everyone was cheering. The folks who check Bush on November 2 aren't voting against someone. They are voting FOR Bush. In contrast, the 50 or so very vocal Kerry supporters (they came in an old school bus that looked like something left over from Woodstock), weren't chanting slogans supporting Kerry. They were chanting slogans against Bush. And for the most part, they were ignored.
One final comment, internal New Jersey polls show Bush and Kerry tied. But more importantly, they show Kerry's support in traditionally democrat areas to be weak. Why was Bush in New Jersey? Because New Jersey and Pennsylvania are in play, and if today is any indication, they are swinging our way.
The polls...First the Rasmussen Poll. The results of the Rasmussen Poll flow in cycles. Almost every single week there is a day or two in which the gap narrows to a few tenths of a percentage. And then every single week, a few day later Bush moves ahead by 3 or 4 points. For the most part, these swings seem to result from weekend polling. Tomorrow, Kerry may well take the lead in Rasmussen's poll. My estimate of the three day rolling sample is 48.9/50.5/43.4 Bush, 47.2/46/48.7 Kerry. Bush needs a better day tomorrow than the one that is about to fall off (48.9-47.2). On the bright side, his average is just over 48% and Kerry's is about 46%. On the down side, for whatever reason, Kerry historically generates better numbers on Monday's (which will be the newest numbers in tomorrow's average). So tomorrow, Kerry might squeak ahead. BUT DON'T PANIC. What until Friday, and take a look at the numbers then. If he remains ahead, then we probably have a shift.
Now, take a look at the other polls...forget Zogby. Nobody knows how he is polling and his methodology is COMPLETELY different from his 2000 polling, so comparisons to his relatively average accuracy then don't apply. How about ABC/WP. Tomorrow's numbers will reflect polling from Saturday/Sunday/Monday. Expect their numbers to tighten. Again, wait until Friday before you draw any conclusions. I don't know anything about the TIPP poll, but it doesn't seem to change much anyway, so who knows.
So what is my grand conclusion with respect to the current trend in polls...Wait until Thursday or Friday to get the best picture. If you don't think weekend polling doesn't affect the polls, take a look at the last three Gallup polls. The first two of the last three were weekend polls and showed Bush tied and then down by 1. The last Gallup poll was done Thurs-Sat and showed Bush up 8. And in case anyone missed the latest update to the Battleground Poll, you will notice that they don't even poll on weekends, because the resulting polling data is so inaccurate.
Finally, I'm reading a lot of panic about the very latest state polls. Guess what. The Survey USA polls were all done over the weekend. Enough said.
Rush Limbaugh carried a big part of the speech live on his radio show.
Bump. You lucky dog.
Thank you for the 411 on the Bush speech as well as the polling numbers. Just came off of the RealclearPolitic thread and there are some really down posters because of some of the numbers.
I think the polls are sort of like the media, the media will slant every story towards Kerry, and I get the feeling that the polls do the same thing. So, I stopped paying attention to MSM and the polls.
I watched Bush's speech today - I just wish it was on prime-time. He was awesome.
Cool! I've seen Bush twice here in WI. He is dynamite!
I had the good fortune of catching the NJ speech on Rush's show today. It was a great speech and a great crowd. Even through 5" car speakers I could sense the energy in the room.
Also noteworthy observations about the polls and polling, but they cause me some worry. IMO, the Tuesday results are the results of the Sunday news shows and MSM spin all weekend. Given that election day is Tuesday and just after the MSM weekend spin, I hope and pray that the only poll that matters puts President Bush back in office for four more years.
BIG BUMP
Thanks for the eyewitness account..and also for the poll analysis! The weekend seems to regularly skew the polls in a negative way. I have seen this on Rasmussen, and WaPo tracking . I didn't realize that it was on Gallup too. Makes sense it would be. It doesn't seem to affect the TIPP tracking as much, but definitely the new SUSA state polls are suspect.
I loved that speech!..So glad you were there!
I saw President Bush in New Jersey today on television. Bush was Awesome!
The Pres was one steeley-eyed missile man and the crowd was awesome.
Big ol' New Jersey Bump and ping!
A really GREAT post.
Thanks for the first hand account.
I got to visit with him when he was at Mt. Rushmore a couple of years ago. An awesome experience......one I'll never forget.
Thanks for the eyewitness report! (I'm envious.) I certainly wouldn't call it "babbling."
I like your take on the polls (even though I don't watch them myself) and I REALLY like your positive attitude!
Just look at Kerry. A haggard looking pantywaist who would be 15 points behind if the MSM wasn't propping his sorry carcass up. No matter, the victory will be all the more sweet with the Rathers and Jennings off the world so downtrodden Nov. 2.
For reference.
Thanks for the report and your service.
SurveyUSA has been both highly reliable and unreliable this year - really all over the map.
Look at their Michigan polls. Every single one all year long was either a 3 point spread or a 10 point spread. What are the chances?
What a wonderful speech this morning! I saw him in Medford, OR. on Thursday. There were over 12,000 people at the Rally and his speech was so inspiring. Later, he spent the night with Laura in a little honeymoon cottage in an old mining town we have a few miles out of town. They went out to dinner in an intimate old stage coach inn that had been turned into a restaurant underground. None of the customers knew he was coming until the Secret Service agents entered the room. We were told he and Laura sat and visited with the patrons of the restaurant, not knowing if they were Dem. or Republican. At one point there were a few protesters outside shouting, and he and Laura got up to leave. Some of the customers asked him to please stay. President Bush said he wasn't leaving because of the noise of the protestors bothering them, but that the noise would ruin the other customers dinner. They all convinced them to stay and I was told they all had a wonderful time.
At the table he sat at when he was ready to leave, a fellow diner told him she had 'been on the fence', but after meeting him, would definitely have her vote. He told her humbly, "please don't vote for me because you had dinner with me. Only vote for me if you feel in your heart I should be your president". This was not a campaign stop, but just the president taking his wife out to dinner in a little restaurant in Oregon....what a great president!
Thanks for posting that. Your graph clearly shows the impact of weekend polling in the Rasmussen poll. Each trough falls roughly on a Tuesday. That is when the rolling average consists of Saturday/Sunday/Monday numbers.
I haven't seen him since y'all took him out of Texas.
Actually, his last name is Reeve, not Reeves.
I believe that George Reeves played Superman on TV.
I, as well, heard our President's speech today and, even though, some fellow freeper wanna be Rove's with weak spines questioned him for campaigning in New Jersey, I totally received the message loud and clear! (as did portions of PA).
There simply is no greater issue than the war on terrorism and there is no greater person currently on the scene to lead our beloved Country into this life or death struggle other than George W. Bush.
If the "cycles" in this chart hold, Bush will be peak again just before the election.
Oh how I envy you!!! I was screaming, clapping, even kissed my tv screen( ok...so now you know I am a crazy senior citizen!!)......that group was energized and jazzed!!!!!
Does that mean we're in trouble cause the election is on a Tuesday ?
I was listening. I liked the line about Kerry being steeped in protest and defeatism.
Thank you for the eyewitness account.
You've read the Live Thread. Here is the transcript of this great speech:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1249049/posts
Kerry seems to have his best polling days on Sundays.
I love when Rush does that .. his comments are so funny!!
Then he also took Kerry's speech and disected it - did you hear that too ..??
I watched his speech today and could only wish I was there like yourself....I was clapping and literally in tears as I heard our President speak thinking this man, who has no agenda but America first, may not be re-elected.
Yeah, they seem to be highly volatile at times. According to them, the same-sex marriage ban in Missouri was only going to pass with just over 50% of the vote while Coors was going to win the Colorado primary with around 45% of the vote. In Missouri, the ban passed by over 70% and Coors won with around 60%.
Oh, my. Your story brought tears to my eyes. Thank you for telling it.
Thanks for the eyewitness account!
It was a fantastic speech; lucky you to have been there. I was fortunate enough to see him in Central Point, OR last week and you are right. It's like a rock star has entered the room. Or, as I posted the next day, I felt like I was at an extremely rowdy church service.
Thanks for the report. We went to see him at UNLV in Las Vegas and it was the same way there. My wife says "You can feel the love in the air they have for Bush"
I ended up handing out Bush signs as people were walking down the isles, it was a like a party in there!
The weekend polling issue is not a matter of Bush's actual support going down over the weekend, it is a problem of taking a measurement on the weekend. People with jobs (i.e. Republicans) don't like to be bugged on the weekend. They will show up to vote, though.
Absolutely not. It means that most people that will vote for him are spending the weekends with their families at soccer, football games, etc. The ones supporting the President go to Church on Saturday or Sunday. They are not home to answer a pollster. Don't worry!
Sorry...I was a little flippant...I should have used a smiley or sarcasm-off statement.
No. It just means that the poll seems to be more democrat on weekends and not as many republicans answered their phones.
Thank You for your service to our country.
Glad to hear...things are going well in the "Conga Line of Corruption State".
News reports say the Pres. was in Marlton NJ, some 15 miles from Philadelphia. He should go to Northern NJ, the cities in sight of Manhattan. He'd have a surprisingly good reception---and a lot of media attention.
Thank you so much for posting this. My husband and I were fortunate to see the President last Thursday in Reno. He was awesome then also. The crowd definitely loved him and the excitement started when we saw the plane land and then the motorcade coming. Just like you said, he came on the stage like a rock star and the crowd just went wild. You could just hear the amens throughout the crowd when he made his remarks. After the birth of my son and Grandson, it was one of the most exciting days of my 64 years.
I've read similar stories. A friend sent me one a while back about a father who's son was killed in the war and was invited to visit the President at the White House. The father wanted the President to pray with him for his son and Bush kicked even the secret service out of the room for private time and prayer with this man. After the man wrote about it to a friend who shared it with me. It's so comforting to know what kind of man we have in the White House.
Remember, the polls are only measurements. I doubt seriously that America's feelings for the President change on a weekly cycle. It is only the polling, and the measurement process that are changing.
Thanks for your account. I was listening to Rush in the car and the way the crowd reacted, I knew the President was glad he came--even Rush was excited about the way crowd was reacting.
It was one of the few times I was proud to be from NJ--especially recently.
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