Posted on 10/19/2004 8:57:30 AM PDT by nypokerface
WASHINGTON - Blacks prefer Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry over President Bush by a nearly 4-to-1 margin, though their support for the Democrat is down slightly from the backing Al Gore received in 2000, according to a poll released Tuesday.
Bush didn't get good marks for his handling of the war in Iraq or for his overall job performance, according to the poll of black Americans from the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies. The center is a Washington-based research group that focuses on issues concerning blacks.
Bush enjoys stronger support than in 2000 from those age 50 and older and those who consider themselves "Christian conservatives."
That has helped the president narrow the still sizable gap with Kerry among blacks, who preferred the Massachusetts senator over Bush, 69 percent to 18 percent.
The group's poll before the 2000 election found Gore with a 74 percent to 9 percent lead over Bush.
The poll of 1,642 adults was conducted between Sept. 15 and Oct. 10, four days before the third and final presidential debate, and had a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.
The survey included two samples — a general population sample of 850 adults and one of 850 blacks. There were 58 black respondents whose answers were part of both samples.
Other polls have found a similar trend among blacks, including an AP-Ipsos poll in mid-September that found 80 percent of black registered voters backing Kerry, while 7 percent supported Bush. Gore won 90 percent of the black vote four years ago, according to exit polls.
While Kerry hopes to counter any erosion in support among blacks, he also needs a large turnout among black Democrats in order to win battleground states like Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
The poll found Kerry receiving as much or more support than Gore among those age 18 to 25, those with less a high school diploma and those making $60,000 or less.
But Kerry had 49 percent support from black Christian conservatives, down from the 69 percent Gore enjoyed in 2000. Bush was at 36 percent among the group this year, more than tripling the 11 percent he got four years ago.
Republican officials say they are making a concerted effort this year to reach out to the black community. Campaign aides have cited Bush's support of school vouchers, public money that can be used to help pay private school tuition, and support of a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage as issues that might win him more black votes.
About 48 percent of blacks surveyed supported vouchers, the same percentage as in the general population, according to the Joint Center poll. About 46 percent of blacks said there should be no recognition of a gay couple's relationship, compared with 37 percent for the population overall.
- I guess the AP thinks this is something new. It must be a slow news day.
GASP!-----
If Bush takes 18% of the vote, this race is over.
So Kerry has black support 4 to 1 over the President. 75% to 25%.
Gore had over 90% black support.
Great job Mr. President!
What am I missing here? Isn't the fact that Bush is polling 18% of the black vote the real news here???
I hate the AP.
The real news here is Bush has DOUBLED his support among blacks since 2000. Any sensible reporter would have noted THAT is the real story. By not the NY Times.
Of course, 4-1 odds, are probably historically high support among african americans for a republican.
I guess the headline:
"African American support for Bush at all time high, 15% higher than previous election"
Just isn't good enough.
I thought I saw somewhere that Gore got 90% of the black vote in 2000. If that was accurate and the number is now below 70%, Kerry is in trouble.
Actually, if Bush gets 18% of the Black vote this is Bad news for the Democrats and Kerry.
SPIN SPIN SPIN...Bush got 9% in 2000....he's running twice in 2004
Misleading Headline Alert!
Bush getting 18% of the Black vote means Kerry is toast. He only got 9% in 2000.
I am stunned.
I was thinking the same thing. That IS the story in these numbers. I won't blame this one on bias, though. I think whoever wrote the article/headline is probably too stupid to see the real news in this poll.
Why in the world do blacks support the Rats by such overwhelming margins? What have the Rats ever done for them except to try to keep them on the modern plantation (government dependence)?
Fox just reported the results from the Joint Centers 2004 polling effort. If Bush gets 18% of the black vote, he'll win in a landslide.
Question: If Bush has increased his support among blacks from 9% to 18%, and his support among women is up considerably, and his support among hispanics is up.........what's up with the polls?
Title should read: "Democrats have wide support..."
Kerry's support in nearly zilch, even in Jesse Jackson strongholds.
Voter turnout will verify.
The group's poll before the 2000 election found Gore with a 74 percent to 9 percent lead over Bush."
Anywhere but our biased MSM, the headline SHOULD read: "Poll: Bush DOUBLES Support Among Blacks Since 2000"
Well that's it, we're screwed. He's got the French, German, New York Times, Yassar Arafat, Trial Lawyers, Union indentured servants, beureacratic teacher vote, Generals hoping for an appointment to ambassador vote, Muslim vote , and now the Black vote..... let's see...
Anybody know who gets the malingering over qualified pizza delivery Ph.d vote, or the malingering, back pain worker's comp vote, or the crack addict, illegal registration voting block?
Wow the dems are so...so.... good.
Exactly. Kerry needs 90% Black Vote just to get what Gore had. Wont even be close.
As = ASK
Will blacks ever learn ?
"though their support for the Democrat is down slightly from the backing Al Gore received in 2000"
So Bush gets a 100% increase in black support over 2000, but the headline is how support for Kerry is only down "slightly".
What a bunch of biased CR@P!
If Bush gets 18% of the black vote, the race is over. Kerry can't win.
Wide support with them preferring Kerry by a 4 to 1 margin? How about a 9 to 1 margin for Gore. This is spin at its worst.
4-1 is a major victory for Bush. It was 9-1 in 2000.... lets hope this number rings true in Ohio and Florida
I believe he has wide support from Mrs Edwards too.
Yesterday, walking down to the ferry to go home, I saw a bumper sticker on the SUV this black guy was driving. Now you have to kinda figure this guy was somewhat successful since he was in an SUV, talking on a cell phone, etc. But, the sticker said: "George W. Bush is a lying sack of s**t." Nice huh? I have not seen one, not one sticker against Kerry with that type of language on it. This is purely HATE driven against Bush. And, blacks are as guilty of the hate as whites. They buy the democrat line that Bush is going to take away social security and all their "benefits," which they have yet to explain how THEY EARNED! It is not a benefit if it is GIVEN to you. It is a HANDOUT. Benefits, YOU EARN! Just my opinion.
And getting wider with every stop at Wendy's.
And in other news, the sun rose from the East, this morning. Film at 11.
Any improvement is worth thanking God. It looks like Bush increased his support by 100% among blacks since 2000.
A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.
Sorry, 4 to 1 is not 75 to 25. 80 to 20 will do it, but we can always hope for more.
The real news the Ass. Pukes failed to note is simple. GW has doubled his base with Black voters:
http://news.pacificnews.org/news/view_article.html?article_id=70c054aec0f50bfb3acd753c3f73fe64
Can Jackson Still Help Kerry With Blacks?
Commentary, Earl Ofari Hutchinson,
Pacific News Service, Oct 01, 2004
Editor's Note: With a recent poll showing that Bush has gained some ground among blacks, John Kerry has called on Democratic standby Jessie Jackson to bump up black support. It may not work this time, writes PNS contributor Earl Ofari Hutchinson.
It's predictable. The moment that white Democrat presidential candidates stumble with black voters they call on Jesse Jackson to bail them out. Democratic presidential candidate Bill Clinton did it in 1992. At his behest, Jackson barnstormed in black neighborhoods touting Clinton as a white Southerner who cared about civil rights. In 2000, Democratic presidential contender Al Gore dispatched Jackson to Florida at the 11th hour to shore up his sagging campaign among black voters.
Now it's Kerry's turn. The cause for his panic is the latest Pew Research Center Poll. It found that Bush has doubled his support among black voters. Kerry quickly announced that he had signed up Jackson as his "senior advisor." That means Jackson will try to rev up black voters in the crucial battleground states of Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio. Blacks there make up a significant percentage of the vote. If they stay home in any sizeable numbers Kerry won't win those states, and then the likelihood is he won't win the White House.
Jackson's fireman-to-the-rescue role worked with Clinton. He eventually bagged more than 80 percent of the black vote. It almost worked with Gore. Despite alleged Republican vote manipulations, and the siphoning off of thousands of potential Gore votes by Ralph Nader, a heavy black voter turnout in Florida almost put Gore over the top.
This time around things could be different. Though polls show that Jackson is still popular among many blacks, he's not the Jackson of a decade or even four years ago. That Jackson could instantly heat up a crowd with a timely slogan, catchy rhyme or well-timed phrase. But the taint of sexual scandal, and his fading from the headlines has wiped away much of his luster. Jackson belongs to the older civil rights generation, and he would find it tough going trying to sell his civil rights pitch to upwardly mobile, younger blacks, many of whom have little inkling of past civil rights struggles. Bush's new black point man, HUD Secretary Alphonso Jackson openly boasted that the GOP would bypass the mainstream civil rights leadership and black Democrats and court younger black voters.
There were early warning signs that this group might be ripe for Republican pickings. A poll earlier this year by Black America's Political Action Committee found that one out of three blacks said they are unsure about Kerry's candidacy. The Committee is an unabashedly black conservative political group and could be accused of deflating Kerry's black support. But a CBS-BET Poll in July also found that Kerry's support among blacks was brittle.
Even if Jackson can shave a point or two off the upward spike in Bush's black support, the fact that Kerry had to horse collar Jackson to do it should be cause for embarrassment. Early campaign polls consistently found that blacks were more hostile than any other group to Bush's domestic and war policies. They were more than ready, even anxious, to embrace any Democrat that opposed Bush.
However, simply beating up on Bush is not enough. A Democratic presidential contender must not be afraid to pound away on issues such as racial profiling, affirmative action, opposition to the death penalty and the HIV/AIDS plague. These are the issues that stir the political juices of even the most disinterested blacks.
Kerry is a good liberal with a commendable record on these issues. But one has to go to his campaign Web site to find that out. When not fending off attacks on his war record, he has spent most of his campaign time lambasting Bush on Iraq, and trying to out tough talk him on the war on terrorism and defense preparedness. These are vital public policy issues, but they won't energize blacks.
With the exception of two boilerplate race-themed speeches at the NAACP convention in July, and the Congressional Black Caucus confab in early September, Kerry has publicly had little to say about race. Democrats pretty much assume that blacks' fear and loathing of Bush is so great that they'll vote for Kerry no matter how little he says about racial issues. The Pew poll shows that's a politically dangerous assumption.
The irony is that Bush has outflanked Kerry on many racial issues. He has touted school vouchers, the faith-based initiative, minority business and homeownership, increased aid to Historically Black Colleges, and promised billions more to fight HIV/AIDS in Africa and the Caribbean. This explains some of his appeal to younger blacks.
Bush's bounce in black support is a big improvement from his dismal showing among blacks in 2000. His vote total then was lower than what Republicans Ronald Reagan, Bush Sr. and Robert Dole got in their presidential campaigns. That slight rise in black support spells trouble for Kerry. There's still time for Kerry to fire up the black Democratic faithful, but he'll need more than soul-stirring speeches by Jackson to do that.
PNS contributor Earl Ofari Hutchinson is a political analyst and author of "The Crisis in Black and Black" (Middle Passage Press)
Exactly.
Not only that, if Bush is getting more of the black vote, and more the of woman vote this year compared to 2000, how is this race "tied" in the polls.
I agree...watching the crowds at Kerry events, blacks are NOT enthused.
And I have a theory why: Gay marriage and vouchers.
I can't document it, but I have a gut feeling we'll find out after the election those two issues either suppressed black turnout or caused Bush to capture something like that 18% of black votes.
Could be the most significant political development in decades.
Ironically, social security is the biggest ripoff of black men, since they have the lowest life expectancy and thus are more likely to die before they get a decnent (if any) return on their social security payments.
HOW TO WIN BLACK VOTES:
1. tell them that nothing bad in their communities is ultimately their fault.
2. Tell them that the opponent wants to screw them.
3. Marry an "African American"
Good catch guys,
A rough back of the envelope calculation for the black population of Ohio: Kerry loses 10% of the black vote means he loses 40,000 votes.
Bush's margin in OH in 2000 was 166,000 votes.
Well, Duhhhhh
All you need to get 90% of the black vote is to have a "D" by your name. Even KKK Byrd would get 90% of the black vote.
Talk about slavery...The Dims have kept these people locked up on the plantation for 50 years, and only a few learn how to get out.
The race is now 'tied' in some polls, while Bush has an 8% lead in others because his real lead is about 4% and polls have a margin of error (95% confidence interval for stats afficianados) of 4%. Presumably most of the difference between now and 2000 is due to the shift among women and to a lesser extent blacks.
Rush just said Gore had 82-85% of the black vote. Kerry should be very upset over the 69% news. The headline is just plain bloated.
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