MSNBC - Frank Luntz says - if the Prez is not up by at least 3 points in the Polls, he will lose...

[Hattie]

Brit Hume showed the Fox Poll today showed Bush with 18 percent of Black vote; he got 9 percent in 2000. Also I heard on ABC radio that BC is going to campaign for Kerry. This I figure is to get the Black vote back and energize them.

[Soul Seeker]

Interesting list. Voters like stability. It tends to serve incumbents well.

Anyway, I think what Luntz is saying in not so coded words, is that Bush needs 3% lead to overcome fraud. Sounds about right.

[rwfromkansas]

How do you get your post background?

[Torie]

I saw it. I don't believe it. If it were true, the numbers would be different in the aggregate. Bush can't by carrying Catholics, 25% of the Jewish vote, 40% of the Hispanic vote, and rounding up most of the evangelicals, and still be near tied with Kerry, unless, well the Torie types, have become a much larger segment of the population, and have done so rapidly.

I almost hung up on my nephew and older brother last night. They think Bush is a fanatic, an imperalist, stupid, and the draft is coming soon, and the military is preparing for it, and that Karzi is an American puppet, and the elections there were phony, and that American blood is being spilled to try to install another puppet in Iraq, to please Israel. (My younger brother hates evangelicals, and wants to punish them any chance he gets, because he thinks they are dangerous, and even if not dangerous, punish them just the same, because he finds them offensively ignorant.)

Both my older brother and my nephew have arguably higher IQ's than I do, maybe close to near genius (145 or so I would guess), leaving me relatively speaking the dumbass Bushbot. Ain't that special?

[uncbob]

Bush has to get to at least 55% to win

Otherwise the fraud will give it to Kerry

Too Bad the wimpy GOP didn't take action MONTHS AGO

[doug from upland]

In 2000, I think about 103 million votes were cast. 2-3% equaling 5 million is math that only works in a failing public school. May I give you the same advice? Think before you post.

[dagnabbit]

The only thing certain is that there will tremendous 'Rat fraud.

Just gotta hope that this fraud isn't decisive in tilting the electoral college count into Kerry's favor come sunup on November 3. Anything else, I believe, we can handle.

A clear, decisive Bush win will be met by widespread 'Rat pissing and moaning and by some legal challenge, but we can handle that. And while a narrow Bush win will be met by a blizzard of legal chicanery, and probably also by considerable 'Rat violence, we can handle that too. We've learned from 2000 and will be even quicker off the block to beat down the 'Rat thievery attempt.

What I really don't know about is if Kerry "wins" by a key state or two in which there was considerable and demonstrable 'Rat illegality above the margin of the "win". I'm frankly not sure, that with the MSM trumpeting "President-elect Kerry" at full volume, that we'd actually be able to wrest JFK's hands from his stolen prize.

And if, G-d forbid, there's a clear, beyond fraud, Kerry win, we can handle that too, because we have more class than the other side. (Whether the fate of our Nation can handle that is another matter)

[rwfromkansas]

Fascinating chart.

Thanks for doing the work on that. What poll did you use for the end?

[AHerald]

Ding-dong me, didn't notice that someone else had posted Dale's chart to you already. Sorry for the redundancy.

[HoustonCurmudgeon]

In Presidential elections last minute undecideds show no tendency to vote for the challenger. Down ballot yes, but not at the top.

[Kuksool]

GOP inroads are being made with minorities. This is why the race card is even harsher this election cycle than any other year. But, I don't think the race baiting will be as effective this time around. Minorities are living under a GOP White House and GOP Congress, plus with a majority of GOP Governors. The younger generation of minorities are beginning to see that Republicans aren't so bad. After all, not many black churches have burned down since GW Bush assumed the Presidency. Also, prior to running for President, Kerry did not attempt to build ties with minorities during his Senate tenure. In fact, his campaign staff is lily white. Minorities will not flock to the polls with great zeal like they did with Clinton and Gore. Minorities tend to see Kerry as a white elitist snob.

[TomEwall]

He states that conventional wisdom says it's one thing to register a lot of new voters, but it’s another to get them to the polls. However, he said he thinks this year is going to be different and therefore he is predicting a record turn out. He says this factor will favor Kerry, making up ground for Kerry by about 0.5%. He says that the remaining undecided voters breaking for the challenger will give Kerry another 2.5%.

I think he's right about the first point, but, as many have pointed out, wrong about the second. However, to counteract the gains that Kerry will get assuming turn out is high is the improved GOTV efforts of the GOP, which should more than offset that. The polls vastly underestimated the GOP in 2002. I doubt they will be off as much as 2002, but wouldn't be surprised if it somewhats estimates GOP result.

[Soul Seeker]

Dem constituents reportedly breaking for Bush in higher number than 2000-

Catholics
Jews
Women
Minorities
FDR/Kennedy/Reagan/Zell/and perhaps soon "Bush" Democrats.
9-11 Liberals
Youth

Groups that are reportedly trending more to Kerry than to Gore in 2000-
Muslims
Homosexuals

Republican constituencies reportedly increasing vote-

Christians
NRA
One issue Republicans

Dem constituencies reportedly increasing votes-

Dead
Felons
Homeless
Drug addicts
Fraud

[Torie]

Interesting analysis, but older elections are not relevant in the media age (what poll showed FDR ahead in 1936?), and Veeps are not incumbents, and the dynamic is totally different, and Dales is relying on just one poll apparently, and the last poll, and right now, what we are seeing is not the last polls, but polls two weeks out. Dole moved up smartly from what the polls showed in 1996, and so did Reagan in 1984, from where we are now in any event. I stand by my post. I think Bush should sweat because of the probably larger turnout. He should sweat a lot, with his current numbers.

[rjmeagle]

I, for one, can NEVER accept a Kerry Presidency. The thought is absolutely and without doubt a frightening thought.

I may have to live through his presidency, but he will never EVER be my president and leader.

Sorry, but that's how I feel about him. He revolts me!!!

[ER_in_OC,CA]

My guesstimate on the remaining "undecideds" in polls that assign leaners:

30% will vote for Kerry
15% will vote for Bush
5% will vote other
50% will not vote at all

If you are still undecided at this point in a heated race, then you're VERY, VERY likely not to vote.

Worth considering is Mickey Kaus' take that undecideds may break for the poll leader to avoid a close election nightmare again. Read it at www.kausfiles.com

[Torie]

Thanks for thinking of me anyway. I appreciate it. Being late is better than never showing up, since much in life is about simply showing up. :) And there you have it.

[Soul Seeker]

Also, add the military vote as trending higher for Bush in 2004, than they did in 2000.

I'm not sure where senior citizens and indy's are falling yet.

[hobson]

What are you talking about? The GOP has the most aggressive, organized campaign in history. They have been working since JANUARY to GOTV all the way down to the precinct level. Wimpy? No. Smart.

[Born Conservative]

There is only 1 poll that will count; the one on November 2.