Posted on 10/20/2004 7:20:48 AM PDT by dfdemar
Per Zogby:
“It's still neck and neck, folks, and targeting is intense. With Bush and Kerry now tied among seniors, small wonder that Kerry is pushing hard on social security. Recall that in 2000 when Gore faced the same dilemma, he closed out the race winning seniors pressing the social security button. Bush’s lead among armed forces’ families is strong—maybe Sinclair hears the call to reinforce. Similarly, Kerry’s growing young voter appeal can only be helped by the ‘draft.’ Two new items to note: Among newly registered voters Kerry leads 52% to 38%; among those who have already voted, Bush leads 50% to 48%. These two groups bear watching.”
https://interactive.zogby.com/clickon/products.dbm (subscription)
(Excerpt) Read more at interactive.zogby.com ...
Interesting.
Yes, I didn't think early voting was actually counted and released til Nov 2
How the hell would he know?
Republicans have claimed that a lot of Democratic registrations are duplicates because both the party and 527's are involved.
Zogby is a kerry shill, and I would not trust his numbers, it appears everytime Bush is up in the polls, he shows Bush down.
Maybe when he does his polls he asks people if they voted already.
Do some states permit early counting of absentee ballots?
Exit polling
already posted
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1250834/posts
http://olympics.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=6553668
By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Bush and Democratic Sen. John Kerry remain tied for the third consecutive day in the race for the White House, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday.
Less than two weeks before the Nov. 2 election, Bush and Kerry were deadlocked at 46 percent in the latest three-day tracking poll. They were tied at 45 percent the previous two days.
About 6 percent of likely voters are still undecided between the president and the Massachusetts senator, who clashed on Tuesday over Kerry's claims that Bush wants to privatize the Social Security retirement system. Bush accused Kerry of "scare tactics."
"With Bush and Kerry now tied among seniors, small wonder that Kerry is pushing hard on Social Security," said pollster John Zogby. He said Democrat Al Gore pressed the same issue in the late stages of the 2000 campaign and came out ahead among senior voters -- but lost the race to Bush.
The number of likely voters who thought Bush deserved re-election was 46 percent and the number who wanted someone new was 50 percent. Only 44 percent rated Bush's presidential performance as excellent or good, while 55 percent said it was fair or poor.
Kerry led 52 percent to 38 percent among newly registered voters, an unpredictable swing population that could become a huge factor if they vote in large numbers.
Bush spent the day in Florida while Kerry traveled to Pennsylvania and Ohio. Those three states, with a combined 68 electoral votes, are the biggest remaining prizes among 10 swing states still considered toss-ups.
The poll of 1,213 likely voters was taken Sunday through Tuesday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. The rolling poll will continue through Nov. 1 -- the day before the election.
A tracking poll combines the results of three consecutive nights of polling, then drops the first night's results each time a new night is added. It allows pollsters to record shifts in voter sentiment as they happen.
The poll showed independent candidate Ralph Nader, blamed by some Democrats for drawing enough votes from Al Gore to cost him the election in 2000, with the support of 1.2 percent of likely voters.
zog is using a "guess what the exit polling would say", if this were NOV 2. These votes will NOT be opened until Nov. 2 by Federal Law! He is using an online "interactive" poll of his subscribers. Anyone that would PAY zog for anything, is NOT representative of the American electorate!
LLS
They're already counting early voters ballots? And releasing the numbers. I don't recall ever hearing of that before.
So Bush has improved over 2000 with seniors, women, and blacks ... and he's going to lose because why???
This seems to be good news. With all the talk of early voting in Florida I would have thought Kerry would have a large lead.
still I like the fact that Bush is winning in the early voting.....I thought that the democrates were pushing it real real hard and exspected it to be in there camp...
I will never believe what Zogby says. Zogby is the Dems mouthpiece.
My family went and voted today. That's 4 for W.
I remember that Zogby came out the other day endorsing kerry. Or is that a different Zogby
This seems to be good news. With all the talk of early voting in Florida I would have thought Kerry would have a large lead.
I would also have thought that Kerry should have a huge lead since we've mostly got jobs and better stuff to do with our time than to stand around in lines and de-bug a new system!
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought we have one Zogby endorsing Kerry and his brother Zogby who already called the election for Kerry!
early voting attracts older people and woman....so with those two groups I would say we are in good shape if we poll 50 to 48....when the guys hit the polls on election day it will be over 52%....
Lessee, when you pay people $2 to write their name on a line---with no intention whatsoever of VOTING, let alone VOTING FOR YOUR GUY---what do you expect? Nevertheless, I question ol' Zogs claim about new registers. Jay Cost has done a phenomenal breakdown, and in fact in OH, MN, and IA, there AIN'T new Dem registers---that is, "new" as in "over and above" what they had. They are REPLACING population declines in the blue counties. The GOP is up a net of 19,000 in OH, he concludes.
I thought so too. So his poll is irrelevant
Incredible bias from a supposedly non-partisan pollster.
The link you provided is to the usual Zogby tracking poll.
This thread is about the early voting and who is ahead.
Exit polling at mailboxes around the world. Special sauce. Tea leaves. Bones. Magic mushrooms.
Duplicate registration will be filtered out of any competent system. There are only so many residential addresses in a precinct.
Where I vote there is a printed list, which anyone can see when they pick up their ballot. There would be a high risk of having a phony name on the list, because lots of people would see it. They also require a photo ID.
If you have requested an absentee ballot, this will be indicated.
Plus, he's publicly stated he's voting for Kerry.
I'm pretty sure I don't like Zogby.
I heard the same thing yesterday on the radio. This poll reeks of partisanship.
how DOES he know that Bush is ahead in early voting? is this only in FL or with the national early vote? does this include absentees?
Simple. Added to the poll questions about who you're voting for is the Question: "have you already voted?" and "are you newly registered?"
I'll bet his sampling of these groups is on the small side, though.
The short answer to your question is that these are Zogby polling results, not election results.
I have heard people claim that the 4 million that stayed home is a myth. States like Ohio and Wisconsin that are currently leaning Kerry are only doing so by the slightest of margins. Plenty of time to reverse that especially since the national polls seem to be going our way and Kerry does not have many opportunities to change that.
You beat me to it! Indeed, how the hell would he know?
"They also require a photo ID. "
In the Primary I was asked for my ID. At the early vote on Monday, at a different location from where I usually vote, I wasn't asked for my ID. I gave them my name and they asked me my address and read me my birthdate.
I think that 4 milliion is inflated, although it is true that in my 1,200+ evangelical congregation, the 2000 election was never even mentioned from the pulpit (Not even a generic prayer for wisdom for our country!).
Cannot say that this year. There does seem to be strong interest among Christians. My wife who has not voted in years asks nearly every day if her voter registration card has arrived. She wants to vote and I am sure she is indicative of many others.
When Absentee Ballots Are Normally Counted
http://64.233.167.104/search?q=cache:mQfPktN2ZF4J:www.electionline.org/site/docs/html/counting_absentee_ballots.htm+early+counting+of+absentee+ballots&hl=en
I believe "among those who have already voted" refers to voters who have voted in the past, as in, those who voted in 2000 -- NOT those who have voted this year.
Re#33 Agreed. Ralph Reed is also the brain behind the GOP ground game. Think 2002 (the off season surprise) times 5 in GOTV effort. Also, I am comforted by the black/Jewish numbers--polls and anecdotally. Vote fraud/liberal judges scare the heck out of me nonetheless. I will be so happy when the election is over....
Re#25 Common Tator made the same observation about Ohio. The Rats and left may be in for a huge surprise come November 2. *fingers tightly crossed saying prayers--for the children*
You are the best, kcvl! Thanks for that information.
I see that most states do not permit the ballots to be counted until the polls close or at least until election day itself.
So how could this article be correct?
Thanks for the info. The early vote number is good but remember it has Texas that is likely heavry bush so without he could be down......
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