Poll: Nearly 1 in 10 Has Already Cast Vote (ABC News poll: K47%, W51%)

ABC News ^ | 10/26/04

[ambrose]

Poll: Nearly 1 in 10 Has Already Cast Vote

9 Percent of Likely Voters Have Voted Via Absentee Ballot or Early Voting

Analysis
By GARY LANGER

- While the 2004 election is locked in a virtual dead heat, for nearly one in 10 likely voters it's all over but the counting: They've already cast their ballots.

Nine percent of "likely" voters in the ABC News tracking poll say they've voted for president, either by absentee ballot or early voting, a number that's jumped in the last week. Fifty-one percent say they went for George W. Bush, 47 percent for John Kerry.

That doesn't mean Bush is "winning" the absentee vote; the difference is within sampling tolerances. And among all likely voters, including those waiting for Election Day, the race is essentially tied: Forty-nine percent support Kerry and 48 percent Bush, with 1 percent for Ralph Nader in interviews Friday through Monday.

Sampling, data collection and tabulation for this poll were done by TNS.

That's the same as Monday's tracking result. The race tightened slightly from last week because Saturday and Sunday were two of Kerry's three best days since this tracking poll began Oct. 1; Monday, though, was a bit better for Bush. Tracking polls average results across days to build a reliable sample.

Early Birds

There's been a recent jump in early voting: The number of registered voters who say they've already voted has risen from 1 percent in the first three weeks of ABC's tracking poll, through last Thursday, to 7 percent now. It reaches 9 percent when computed among the ranks of likely voters only.

Early voting is more prevalent in the West than in other regions. (Oregon is one reason -- all voting there is by mail -- and there's high absentee voting in several other Western states.) Early voters are more likely to be older, women and following the race very closely. They're also a bit more likely to be Republicans than Democrats.

As with any small subgroup, there's greater sampling variability in data on early voters. Given the increased opportunities for early voting in many states, they bear watching as their ranks grow in the coming days.

Movables

Movable voters, those who say their minds aren't definitely made up, are another group to watch. This group is down to 9 percent of all likely voters, compared with 14 percent at the start of tracking, and movables divide by 42 percent to 41 percent between Bush and Kerry in this poll.

Bush did as well or better with movables last week; they move, and still can. And an open question is how many of them actually will vote: Movables are following the campaign much less closely than other likely voters (32 percent "very closely," compared with 66 percent among those who've got a definite preference). That suggests less commitment to the process among movables.

Referendum

Incumbent elections often are described as a referendum on the sitting president, which helps explain the close race. Precisely as they divide on the horse race, likely voters split 48 percent to 49 percent on whether Bush does or doesn't deserve a second term.

That view is highly partisan, marked by the same sharp divisions as vote preferences. Ninety percent of Republicans say Bush deserves a second term; 86 percent of Democrats (and 52 percent of independents) say he does not. Fifty-five percent of whites say he's earned another term, but 76 percent of minorities say not. Nearly three-quarters of evangelical white Protestants say yes; two-thirds of the nonreligious, no.

The "deserves re-election" number for Bush is down from 54 percent after his convention, when he was at a peak. The race, like the answer to this question, has tightened since.

Whatever the outcome of the election, such results underscore the difficultly Bush has had -- and perhaps any president might encounter in this polarized electorate -- achieving his goal of being "a uniter, not a divider."

Issues and Groups

Issue priorities are holding steady, with a close division among the top three: the economy, cited by 24 percent of likely voters as most important in their vote; the war in Iraq, 22 percent; and terrorism, 21 percent.

Terrorism, Bush's best issue, peaked higher, at 28 percent, after his convention. Kerry's been trying, with some success, to drive it down and other issues up in importance, a critically important factor in this competitive race.

Among groups, there's a sharp regional difference in vote preferences: Kerry ahead by 56 percent to 41 percent in his home region, the Northeast, and by 54 percent to 45 percent in the West. It's a 52 percent-46 percent Bush-Kerry race in the most populous region, the South, and a 50 percent-46 percent Bush-Kerry contest in the Midwest. The biggest difference from 2000 is the West, better at the moment for Kerry than it was for Al Gore.

Kerry continues to be strong in core Democratic groups, Bush in the Republican base, with an unusual split in the two major swing groups: Independents, now 51 percent-44 percent Kerry-Bush, and white Catholics, 52 percent-44 percent Bush-Kerry. In exit polls since 1980, these two groups have sided with the same candidate, and he's won the presidency.

Religion, or the lack thereof, has its customarily strong influence. Apart from white Catholics, the most centrist large religious group, white Protestants prefer Bush by 30 points, 64 percent to 34 percent; that includes evangelical white Protestants, by a wider 71 percent to 28 percent, and non-evangelical white Protestants by 57 percent to 41 percent. People who profess no religion, 12 percent of likely voters, favor Kerry by 67 percent to 31 percent.

Methodology

This poll was conducted Oct. 22-25 among a random national sample of 2,414 adults, including 2,084 registered voters and 1,666 likely voters. The results have a 2.5-point error margin for the likely voter sample. ABC News and The Washington Post are sharing data collection for this tracking poll, then independently applying their own models to arrive at likely voter estimates. Sampling, data collection and tabulation were done by TNS of Horsham, Pa.

Copyright © 2004 ABC News Internet Ventures

[DestroytheDemocrats]

"Fifty-one percent say they went for George W. Bush, 47 percent for John Kerry. "

You messed up didn't you??????

[ambrose]

That's the same as Monday's tracking result. The race tightened slightly from last week because Saturday and Sunday were two of Kerry's three best days since this tracking poll began Oct. 1; Monday, though, was a bit better for Bush. Tracking polls average results across days to build a reliable sample.

[arkady_renko]

Fifty-one percent say they went for George W. Bush, 47 percent for John Kerry

[NavVet]

Headline is misleading.

[OpusatFR]

Wow! 10% Big Whoop.

[DestroytheDemocrats]

You are now responsible for 38 heart attacks and 15 stroks. Bow your head in shame!!!

[atomicpossum]

What a silly article. On election day, I want them to tell me who is winning at Noon.

[satchmodog9]

I guarantee most of these people are from the big cities anyway. The big cities always vote rat so this is of no consequence.

[Cosmo]

Cool, a link and an article all in one post. unbelievable. There's hope for FR yet :)

nice numbers, but statistically meaningless, I suspect.

[danneskjold]

Headline is the total result...51 - 47 is correct for those that have voted...

[HostileTerritory]

I would not read too much into the numbers. The states with early voting are:

Texas, Georgia, Florida, North Carolina, Oregon, Iowa, Nevada, Colorado, Tennessee, Virginia.

On Election Day, Bush should expect to win this collective group with at least 55% of the vote. It includes only swing states, Bush-leaners, and the three biggest mega-Bush states in the country (Texas, Georgia, and Tennessee.) Oregon is the exception and it's small. We need to do much better than 51% here to win.

[ambrose]

Forty-nine percent support Kerry and 48 percent Bush, with 1 percent for Ralph Nader in interviews Friday through Monday.

[fortheDeclaration]

Fifty-one percent say they went for George W. Bush, 47 percent for John Kerry. That doesn't mean Bush is "winning" the absentee vote; the difference is within sampling tolerances. And among all likely voters, including those waiting for Election Day, the race is essentially tied: Forty-nine percent support Kerry and 48 percent Bush, with 1 percent for Ralph Nader in interviews Friday through Monday.

LOL!

So now the Poll becomes more important the actual voting!

No, 51% beats 47% in the voting

[BoBToMatoE]

Bush did as well or better with movables last week; they move, and still can. And an open question is how many of them actually will vote: Movables are following the campaign much less closely than other likely voters (32 percent "very closely," compared with 66 percent among those who've got a definite preference). That suggests less commitment to the process among movables

---

THE UNDECIDEDS ARE BREAKING FOR BUSH!! WEWT!

[Moral Hazard]

"There's been a recent jump in early voting: The number of registered voters who say they've already voted has risen from 1 percent in the first three weeks of ABC's tracking poll, through last Thursday, to 7 percent now. It reaches 9 percent when computed among the ranks of likely voters only. "

Is everyone who has already voted considered a likely voter?

[Homer_J_Simpson]

So Kerry has a 1 point lead in the theoretical voting and President Bush has a 3 point lead in the exit polling.

[JFC]

I am going back out to stand at early voting after work ....


Pray for me....... I stand and smile and hummmm Amazing Grace as they people walk past me. It is a very miniority location and the kerry clowns were shouting and yelling at my Bush Sign.... It is done by RNC. And say Vote Early Today ... Bush/Cheney

[MichelleWSC]

"Forty-nine percent support Kerry and 48 percent Bush, with 1 percent for Ralph Nader in interviews Friday through Monday"


---Unless my reading skills have gone "support" is different from actual votes.

[Clump]

This isn't bad considering who the early voters are.

[Pastnowfuturealpha]

I don't think this should be allowed to continue. Telling the outcome on these votes. It could very likely become a tool to be used by either side.

Why don't the rules apply - where the stations aren't allowed to say who is leading until the polls close in states -

They should keep the early vote out of the public until that state finishes voting the regular way - in my opinion -

[ArmyBratCutie]

I am feeling so worn out from all this....the big ole LIES from NYTIMES and POST....all this crap we have to keep fighting and talking about....why are the polls breaking for PRES BUSH?? I just dont GET IT....

[OpusatFR]

But remember 2000 when the networks refused to call West Virginia for GWB as the West Coast data was coming in?

Even though the exit polls showed the state went to Bush, they wouldn't call it.

I suspect they will do the same thing this time with other states.

Bush in a landslide.

[Strategerist]

Telling the outcome on these votes.

They're not telling the outcome on those votes. They're telling how people SAY they've voted, not referring to actual vote counts, Granted, they don't give exit polling results during the day on election day, but this is somewhat virgin territory here. With so much early voting an inevitable result of polling prior to an election is running across lots of people who have already voted.

[Rodm]

Since most states have absentee ballots I think this represents a broad spectrum. With 4% differential Bush wins with 5-5.5 million votes. Should be enough to win the swing states.

[Codedog]

I understood that you could vote early but they wouldn't be counted untill election day. Is this article BS or fact?

[livius]

I am going back out to stand at early voting after work ....

Good! Be brave! We have finally gotten GOP poll watchers at early voting in my town, although I will admit we were unprepared and the Dems were already there, harassing people.

But then we went to a major intersection with our signs and we got a lot more thumbs up and honks than the Kerry folks I saw a couple of days before.

[Rodm]

it's like an exit poll!

[dangus]

White Catholics? Hehe. Silly label.
Asian Catholics= Vietnamese, refugees of communism, and Phillipinos, tradutionalist Catholics (unlike Mexicans).
Black Catholics= Bishop Wilton Gregory, Clarence Thomas' family.

[Strategerist]

I understood that you could vote early but they wouldn't be counted untill election day. Is this article BS or fact?

Hmm. Seems lots of people aren't getting it.

Yes, none of the early votes have been counted yet.

What THIS is is a POLLER CALLING people, and asking them if they've already voted, and if so, for who. Has nothing to do with votes being "counted." It's similar to election day "exit polling."

[fortheDeclaration]

Since most states have absentee ballots I think this represents a broad spectrum. With 4% differential Bush wins with 5-5.5 million votes. Should be enough to win the swing states

At the very least.

I think the gap will even be larger come Nov.2 due to large GOP turnout.

[goldstategop]

Agreed. Bush should pick up IA, MN, WI, NM, OR. I don't know about MI but its doable if he can get a big win in Grand Rapids.

[Doctor Stochastic]

There were about 2100 votes cast here by noon today.

Several people I work with are taking a couple of days off to bus (Democrat) people to vote. The GOP has declined my offers to do so for the last 20 years.

[OpusatFR]

Sure will.

May the Holy Spirit guide you. May the Lord lead you. May God protect you. I ask this of you, Father, in the Name of your Son, our Lord, Jesus Christ.

St. Michael the Archangel protect us in battle. Be our protection against the snares and wickedness of the devil. May God rebuke him I humbly pray and thou, Prince of the heavenly Host cast into Hell Satan and all the evil spirits who wander the world seeking the ruin of souls. Amen

[unspun]

Today's Zogby Italics:

Pollster John Zogby: "Our first night with Leaners brings President Bush to 49% against Senator Kerry's 46%. If Kerry, as suggested, is looking to Undecideds --look again there may not be enough left."

[dangus]

Nah, You're listing Southern states. The news story says much of what they're getting is from Oregon, and the most from the West in General. New Mexico has early voting, and I'll say Nevada and Colorado if you do. But you're listing mostly Southern states, and the article refutes that.

[Gunder]

What?? Your post doesn't make sense. The polls are breaking for Bush??

[Pastnowfuturealpha]

I see, so the media is using this - perhaps they will continue and this may be why Kerry plans on saying he's won with or without all the votes counted - if he is said to be ahead that night or day or whenever -

Not good, in my opinion -

[dangus]

Hell, they wouldn't call Virginia or North Carolina, as the exit polls showed leads of what, 8 percent in VA and more in NC! But for some reason, with exit poll data showing Florida TIED, they announced Florida for Gore an hour before the polls closed.

[Fruitbat]

I hate this "early voting" thing already...

[wrathof59]

Amen.

[ArmyBratCutie]

see how worn out I am....I meant why ARENT all the polls breaking for Pres Bush...on Fox they are ranting like crazy about how everything is breaking for Kerry...its plain exhausting to listen too

[discostu]

Arizona has early voting, and Florida.

[HostileTerritory]

Thanks. (I did list Florida.) I forgot New Mexico, but I don't think that will carry much weight at all in this sample. It has fewer voters than Harris County.

[stands2reason]

It's just a poll. They're not counting the votes.

[Cousin Eddie]

Their statement is indeed acurate. There are a bit over 1600 likely voters in their poll...9% of these people have voted. Therefore their sample of "actual voters" is only 150 or so. If you want to take 51-47 to the bank based on 150 voters nationwide, be my guest.

[slowhand520]

The good thing about this is that the "Dems poll better on Weekends" theory seems to be true. Kerry had his best days sat. and Sun. While Bush had a good day Monday. I think the poll will be tied or Kerry leading by one tomorrow. Then gradualy trending Bush.

[HostileTerritory]

That's my point. Early voting is a feature of Southern states and Mountain states that lean Bush. Oregon is the small exception.

Again, I don't think this is bad news for Bush. Given how much the Democrats in all states (incl. Florida and Texas) are pushing early voting it's great news that we're getting our troops out, too. But we can't look at this number as a proxy for Election Day. We need to keep working, looking at GOTV, and praying.