Posted on 10/26/2004 5:50:40 PM PDT by conservative in nyc
With one week before the election, the nation's most high-profile senate race is at a statistical dead heat. South Dakota's Senate contest has grown too close to call according to our latest KELOLAND-TV/Argus Leader Scientific Poll.
We asked 800 likely voters within the last week who they want to be their next senator. And for only the second time since we polled this race, the numbers are within the poll's margin of error.
49% of voters in our poll say they'll reelect democratic senator Tom Daschle. 47% say they'll vote for republican challenger John Thune. Only 4% are undecided. And there's a 3.5 % margin of error, making this race statistically even.
Democratic candidate Sen. Tom Daschle says, "We're very pleased. This is another illustration of the fact we've been able to keep our lead all the way through the campaign."
Republican candidate John Thune says, "I think it's indicative of what we're feeling on the ground. There's a lot of energy, a lot of momentum. I think the race is tightening."
You see that if you look at how the numbers moved in the last month. In late September Daschle led by five points. Now, it's down to two.
Political analyst Jennifer Duffy says, "The result of this race is going to be very close. Probably a thousand votes in either direction."
Analysts say Thune may be closing the gap in part because he's gone on the attack.
KELOLAND political analyst Steve Hemmingsen says, "He's gotten harder on Daschle noticeably in his ad campaign getting down to the real nitty gritty making accusations that have been kind of softballed until now."
But as the candidates enter the final week on the campaign trail, experts say there's not much more they can do to convince voters.
Duffy says, "These are two candidates who have campaigned hard, who've done everything they needed to do, run very strong campaigns. At this point it really does come down to turnout."
According to the Argus Leader article that cannot be posted (it's a Gannette Snoozepaper) Thune's leading 60-35 West River, so turnout in Rapid City and the western part of the state will be key.
Dead Indians will put Daschle back in office for another term.
Yep, it's all about turnout.
Come on South Dekota.
I know it is almost impossible to throw out a senior senator but there is a chance with Daschle.
The Argus and KELO are in Daschle's pocket. They don't report anything "negative" about him.
The Rapid City Journal is much the same.
if Thune loses, he will regret listening to Rove last time and not contesting that election. Bush should have gone to SD for Thune - even a rally at the airport might make a big difference.
I'm so hoping he'll win, or at least he can give ole Daschel a run for his money.
Brand new Rasmussen Poll has Thune leading Daschle 48 to 45, and a McLaughlin Poll put it at 49-45 for Thune. Daschle is so scared he just today broke a pledge and allowed the DNC buy 600K worth of ads.
Thats another reason not to buy their poll completely.
So many people are voting straight Rep. ticket. Maybe many of our guys/gals will come in on Bush's coat tails.
God I hope so. I've had nothing but disappointment lately from SD voters. The 2002 loss to Johnson was devastating, I gave a lot of time and money to that campaign, and then there was the June special election, when Herseth took it by just a few votes. We HAVE to win this race. It's gotten to where I am talking about it to people I don't even know, trying for just a few extra votes.
How can the state go for Bush and Daschle? Those guys are complete oposites. Get out the vote and Thune will win this race.
"unless the comment from Brit Hume tonight that the RATs have about conceded Florida"
MOE
GO BIG JOHN! Linda D has been a real mudsucker and EVERYONE knows it.
Look for a major visit in SF's this week from the good guys.
It will be Cheney from what I hear.
A newer poll shows Thune ahead...
"Look for a major visit in SF's this week from the good guys."
What's this about? Do you know something we don't know. I would love to see Mr. Bush here!
ping
Let's generate pressure on KELOLAND NEWS DIRECTOR MARK MILLAGE
http://www.keloland.com/CustomPages/ContactUs/Index.cfm
Talon News reports that the District of Columbia Office of Tax and Revenue (OTR) is investigating whether Sen Daschle is actually entitled to a property tax exemption he claimed on the $1.9 million Washington mansion he and his wife purchased in 2003, and that Sen Daschle declared on official documents filed with OTR that the District mansion was his "principal place of residence."
At issue is the homestead exemption, a property tax credit limited to owner-occupants who declare their homes to be their "primary residence." The affidavit filed with OTR that bears the senator's signature makes that claim.
A flurry of activity began on September 29, 2004 when Talon News filed a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request for the executed application. That same day, Carl Piggott, an OTR auditor rescinded the homestead exemption---possibly at Sen Daschle's direction.
The following day, the OTR legal staff reinstated the credit. A Talon News source reported that OTR faxed a letter to Daschle's Washington office on Monday asking that a new application be executed. The details of the activities that ensued beginning September 29 have not yet been revealed, but Doug Schauss, a spokesman for the OTR told Talon News that the matter was "under review with the legal staff" and that a "resolution was expected soon."
These puzzling circumstances demand that investigative authorities determine what the Senator is hiding.
South Dakotans should know exactly who they are voting for in order to decide who will best represent them in Washington. Clearly, as the Talon News points out, Sen Daschle is trying to wriggle out of the chokehold in which the OTR exemption has unfortunately placed him, and suggests the Senator has something to hide.
First Sen Daschle claims he did, and then he says he didn’t, apply for a tax exemption.
He can't have it both ways.
South Dakotans should ask themselves, “ If Sen Daschle lied to you about this issue, what else has he lied to you about?"
I was in Sioux Falls visiting my parents last weekend.
My mother and I got the same funny feeling when we read the Argus Liar on Sunday morning. ***What the heck?****
That paper is so liberal, my mother has boycotted the A section (what little there is) since x42's impeachment. She basically gets it for the comics, ads and the obits - sigh.
Something funny is going on. Do they smell a loser at the Argus Liar?
All I know is that Thune signs were running 4 to 1 in their neck of the woods.
West river South Dakota fraud might determine this election, just as it did in Thune's last attempt. From what I've read here, it sounds like some SD freepers are working hard to squash that cr*p this time.
The Rats have conceded Florida? Is Bush really that far ahead there?
Thune would probably creep up one or two points in the polls if only Bush would swing by South Dakota once.
The best source for the inside skinny on this race is
http://daschlevthune.typepad.com/daschle_v_thune/
I think I'll wait a couple of days before believing this.
I repeat. The Argus is in Daschle's pocket. Follow the money.
The only time any of the local media report anything remotely bad about him is when the issue has already played in the national media for a few days.
They don't seem to be correct IMO. They also have Arkansas tied and I just don't see that.
Yes, the state is largely democrat and independent. Very much like S.Dakota, but they Dem's here hate Eastern libs and abortion, gay marriage and taxes.
I just don't see what they are reporting.
Mason-Dixon had the best record in 2002.
I guess we shall see.
Daschole < 50 (49) as a Senate incumbent under these circumstances indicates, to me, that he's going down.
the hubby talked to a friend of ours on the Res today, she's an Indian gal and working at the election in Pine Ridge, she said she doesn't see how there can be much for voter fraud this time because of the new SD state law that you must have an ID to vote. she said some of them there are pretty mad at Larry Diedrich - (republican running for US Congress this year) because he authored the new law and got it through the SD senate. so this is looking more promising for Thune all the time.. but not as good for Larry, he's up against a smarmy she-dashle, and Larry's too nice..
Daschle is in the lead technically, but it's within the margin of error. And two other polls (Rasmussen Reports and McLaughlin & Associates) give Thune a small advantage. As for the dead Indian votes, Republicans were caught off guard in 2002, but are now ready.
No, it won't be "dead Indians" that put Daschle back in office, Ambrose. I guarantee you it will be "live Republicans" who do so!
As for the dead Indian votes, Republicans were caught off guard in 2002, but are now ready.
Actually, John Thune and the SD GOP had at least a month's notice in 2002 about fraud on Indian reservations, but they were too timid to try to stop it.
There was a report some months ago that Thune did not want Bush to campaign for him in 2004, as he thought the 2002 appearances by the President were counterproductive.
Thune never had a chance...he could even beat Tim Johnson, how can he beat Daschle, fer Gawd's sake!!
I've posted the same thought several times.
A visit by Bush to Sioux Falls would be great for Thune.
Furthermore, Sioux Falls is the major media market for southwestern Minnesota and northwestern Iowa...both battleground states.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.