FOOD FOR THOUGHT ON UNDECIDEDS AND FIRST-TIME VOTERS (how the undecideds have to break for Bush)

Kerry Spot/NRO ^ | 10/27/04 | jim geraghty

[Cableguy]

Sometimes, two fascinating pieces of information come to the Kerry Spot e-mail box almost simultaneously.

Kerry Spot reader Steve, a fountain of fascinating information, broke down the numbers of how the undecided voters would have to break to give each swing state for Bush or for Kerry.

Using the most recent averages of the Battleground polls found on RealClearPolitics.com I created a table that determines the number of undecided voters from each state that would be required for either Bush or Kerry to win. This is done by assuming that 20% of the overall ranks of the undecided won't vote at all and then arriving at the majority point by reducing that non-voter number as well as the numbers of third-party candidates (Ralph Nader plus an assume 0.5% for other third-party candidates) and dividing by two. The results are as follows:

Florida - Bush 23.78%, Kerry 56.22%
Ohio - Bush 37.87%, Kerry 42.13%
Pennsylvania - Bush 96.76%, Kerry -16.76%
Wisconsin - Bush 27.80%, Kerry 52.20%
Iowa - Bush 2.22%, Kerry 77.78%
Minnesota - Bush 34.55%, Kerry 45.45%
Michigan - Bush 79.62%, Kerry 0.38%
Missouri - Bush -8.96%, Kerry 88.96%
New Mexico - Bush 17.97%, Kerry 62.03%
Nevada - Bush -13.06%, Kerry 93.06%
Colorado - Bush -20.26%, Kerry 100.26%
New Hampshire - Bush 58.46%, Kerry 21.54%
Maine - Bush 110.83%, Kerry -30.83%
West Virginia - Bush -4.44%, Kerry 84.44%
Oregon - Bush 89.02%, Kerry -9.02%
New Jersey - Bush 84.44%, Kerry -4.44%
Arkansas - Bush -20.00%, Kerry 100.00%
Hawaii - Bush 35.91%, Kerry 44.09%

If Bush gets a third of the undecideds to break his way (as Dick Morris and John Zogby insist is the historical norm) then the president wins the following Battleground states and ends up with 276 Electoral Votes: Florida, Wisconsin, Iowa, Missouri, New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, West Virginia and Arkansas (as of today's polls).

At 35% Bush gains Minnesota and his Electoral Vote bumps up to 286.
At 36% Bush gains Hawaii and is up to 290 EVs.
At 38% Bush gains Ohio and is up to 310 EVs.
At 59% Bush gains New Hampshire and is up to 314 EVs.
At 80% Bush gains Michigan and is up to 331 EVs.
At 85% Bush gains New Jersey and is up to 346 EVs.
At 90% Bush gains Oregon and is up to 353 EVs.
At 97% Bush gains Pennsylvania and is up to 374 EVs.

Anything less than 27% of the undecided vote (as of today's polls) tips the election to John Kerry (by tipping Wisconsin back into the Democratic column).

There's no guarantee, of course, that the undecideds will break uniformly from state-to-state, but I found the trends interesting nonetheless for those who believe the late-deciders will break for Kerry.

I’m sure a lot of people could quibble with an assumption here and there, but that seems like a good back-of-the-envelope calculation. If Kerry’s advantage among the late-deciding voters is greater than the traditional 2:1 challenger advantage, then Teresa can begin thinking about how she wants to decorate the Oval Office. If it’s around 2:1, then it’s probably a close win for Bush. If Bush does better than the traditional 2:1 split, he should win with some breathing room, and/or a mandate.

Then forwarded by Ramesh, a message about the Pace poll of first-time voters.

Among first-time voters, President George W. Bush seems to be gaining ground as the campaign proceeds. He has a statistically insignificant lead over Senator John Kerry (48% favor Bush in a head-to-head race, and 44% favor Kerry). Bush's support in this group has climbed 8 points since the previous Pace Poll/Rock the Vote survey in July (from 40% to 48% now). Meanwhile, Kerry's support has slipped 6 points (from 50% in July to 44% today). Seven percent remain undecided.

Like the old song goes, these are the kinds of things that make you go 'Hmm.'

 

[Cableguy]

interesting analysis

[hawaiian]

What an awesome post.

[iheartusa]

Historically undecideds are supposed to break for the challenger, but hey, the Red Sox curse was broken and President Bush has miraculously evaded Tecumseh's curse.

[Cableguy]

"With only three exceptions, the incumbent party's candidate did at least as well as the challenger with the late breaking vote, and usually did a lot better."

http://www.dalythoughts.com/Update-05-26-04.htm

Year	Race	1 Month Out	Next To Last Poll	Result	Verdict
1936	Incumbent FDR vs. Landon	FDR 51, Landon 44	FDR 54, Landon 43	FDR 61, Landon 37	Broke towards incumbent.
1940	Incumbent FDR vs. Willkie	FDR 51, Willkie 42	FDR 51, Willkie 42	FDR 55, Willkie 45	Broke evenly.
1944	Incumbent FDR vs. Dewey	FDR 47, Dewey 45	FDR 47, Dewey 45	FDR 53, Dewey 46	Broke towards incumbent.
1948	Incumbent Truman vs. Dewey	Dewey 46, Truman 40	Dewey 50, Truman 45	Truman 50, Dewey 45	Broke towards the incumbent.
1952	No incumbents. Democrats the incumbent party. Ike vs. Stevenson	Ike 51, Stevenson 38	Ike 48, Stevenson 39	Ike 55, Stevenson 44	Broke evenly.
1956	Incumbent Ike vs. Stevenson	Ike 51, Stevenson 41	Ike 51, Stevenson 41	Ike 57, Stevenson 42	Broke towards incumbent.
1960	No incumbent President. Incumbent VP Nixon vs. Kennedy	Kennedy 49, Nixon 45	Kennedy 49, Nixon 45	Kennedy 50, Nixon 50	Broke for incumbent VP.
1964	Incumbent LBJ vs. Goldwater	LBJ 64, Goldwater 29	LBJ 64, Goldwater 29	LBJ 61, Goldwater 38	Broke towards challenger.
1968	No incumbents. Democrats the incumbent party. Humphrey vs. Nixon	Nixon 43, Humphrey 31	Nixon 44, Humphrey 36	Nixon 43, Humphrey 43	Broke towards incumbent party.
1972	Incumbent Nixon vs. McGovern	Nixon 60, McGovern 34	Nixon 59, McGovern 36	Nixon 61, McGovern 38	Broke evenly.
1976	Incumbent Ford vs. Carter	Carter 47, Ford 41	Carter 48, Ford 44	Carter 50, Ford 48	Slight break towards incumbent.
1980	Incumbent Carter vs. Reagan	Carter 47, Reagan 39	Carter 47, Reagan 39	Reagan 51, Carter 41	Broke strongly towards challenger. So did some of the decideds.
1984	Incumbent Reagan vs. Mondale	Reagan 58, Mondale 38	Reagan 56, Mondale 39	Reagan 59, Mondale 41	Broke evenly.
1988	No incumbent President. Incumbent VP Bush vs. Dukakis	Bush 49, Dukakis 43	Bush 53, Dukakis 39	Bush 53, Dukakis 46	Broke evenly from a month out. Broke slightly towards challenger from the 2nd to last poll.
1992	Incumbent Bush vs. Clinton	Clinton 47, Bush 29	Clinton 43, Bush 36	Clinton 43, Bush 38	Broke towards incumbent.
1996	Incumbent Clinton vs. Dole	Clinton 48, Dole 39	Clinton 52, Dole 41	Clinton 49, Dole 41	Broke evenly.
2000	No incumbent President. Incumbent VP Gore vs. Bush	Bush 48, Gore 43	Bush 47, Gore 45	Gore 48, Bush 48	Broke towards incumbent VP.

 

[raptor29]

"Historically undecideds are supposed to break for the challenger,........."

Actually not true. Just another false notion put out there by the Democrats, hoping to influence voters.

[Cableguy]

see post #5

[saveliberty]

Wow! Thanks for the detailed analysis!

[WoodstockCat]

Elections in an on-going war or conflict:

Year	Race	1 Month Out	Next To Last Poll	Result	Verdict	On-Going War or Conflict
1940	Incumbent FDR vs. Willkie	FDR 51, Willkie 42	FDR 51, Willkie 42	FDR 55, Willkie 45	Broke evenly.	WW II
1944	Incumbent FDR vs. Dewey	FDR 47, Dewey 45	FDR 47, Dewey 45	FDR 53, Dewey 46	Broke towards incumbent.	WW II
1952	No incumbents. Democrats the incumbent party. Ike vs. Stevenson	Ike 51, Stevenson 38	Ike 48, Stevenson 39	Ike 55, Stevenson 44	Broke evenly.	Korean War
1960	No incumbent President. Incumbent VP Nixon vs. Kennedy	Kennedy 49, Nixon 45	Kennedy 49, Nixon 45	Kennedy 50, Nixon 50	Broke for incumbent VP.	Begin Cold War
1968	No incumbents. Democrats the incumbent party. Humphrey vs. Nixon	Nixon 43, Humphrey 31	Nixon 44, Humphrey 36	Nixon 43, Humphrey 43	Broke towards incumbent party.	Vietnam
1972	Incumbent Nixon vs. McGovern	Nixon 60, McGovern 34	Nixon 59, McGovern 36	Nixon 61, McGovern 38	Broke evenly.	Vietnam
1980	Incumbent Carter vs. Reagan	Carter 47, Reagan 39	Carter 47, Reagan 39	Reagan 51, Carter 41	Broke strongly towards challenger. So did some of the decideds.	Height of Cold War
1984	Incumbent Reagan vs. Mondale	Reagan 58, Mondale 38	Reagan 56, Mondale 39	Reagan 59, Mondale 41	Broke evenly.	Cold War
1992	Incumbent Bush vs. Clinton	Clinton 47, Bush 29	Clinton 43, Bush 36	Clinton 43, Bush 38	Broke towards incumbent.	Post Gulf War 1

[nobody_knows]

Just show the beheading videos to them.

[Miss Behave]

Velly intellesting. Great information. Thanks, Cabe. Also, Rush today was talking about Jay Cost's analysis, "Ohio: Safe," that we've been discussing here. Was SO glad to hear him getting that word out. I did my bit to spread that blog-piece out to the "Media" last night. I spread it around like a farmer spreads manure at someone else's cost. Heh. Kerry is so yesterday's news. Rice Butt is so...Rice Butty.

Thanks Cabe.

[Paul8148]

Someone should do a state by state to see how undeciders break. That is a key also.....In Minn in 2000 they broke towards Bush (He was down 5-7 in most polls and lost by 2%), and in 2002 broke for Colemen and the Republican Gov who won.......

[Miss Behave]

Yes, that would be interesting. And I did not know what you mentioned about recent past undecided Minnisotans.

A state by state would be very tale-telling to information gathering concerns and companies, on many levels, for many issues/understandings "demographic."

[DWPittelli]

I think the assumption here that the polls are accurate reflections of reality is unwarranted. Of course, it assumes away sampling error, usually 3% to 4%. But the polls also generally make assumptions about party affiliation, and many of them reweight their answers to match 2000 party affiliations of exit polls. This may or may not be a good idea. I think there actually are more people identifying as Republicans since 9/11; as Dick Morris has written, party affiliation is not a fixed demographic. Also, the decreasing response rate to telephone polls (well under 50% I understand, even for 3-day polls with callbacks) and the uncertain demographics of cell-phone-only households and households that screen their calls, also make polls close to useless.

[Ancesthntr]

Undecided, undeschmided...they won't determine the course of the election. Nope, the election will be decided on Sunday, when the Foreskins, errrr, Redskins play the Packers. If the 'skins win, so does GWB.

http://www.bendomenech.com/blog/archives/001493.html

Normally, I rather despise the DC football franchise. However, this time I can honestly say GO FORE, uh, REDSKINS!!!!

[JoeV1]

"Historically undecideds are supposed to break for the challenger,........."


Not true as the chart shows AND backed up by what I heard recently on both Fox and MSNBC. It seems that is mostly true in congressional races where most people haven't a clue who their state reps are and when forced to choose a name they simply go with the name they recognize.

[iheartusa]

I stand corrected. I don't think it matters anyway, because it's pretty obvious President Bush will get a 2nd term. I just hope that this time around he will seriously do something about the illegals, because I feel they are a security threat. I also want a payroll taxcut. So that's the end of my Xmas list.

[Mr. Silverback]

In every sort of political race from dogcatcher to U.S. Senator, undecided voters break toward the challenger ever time by about two thirds. This occurs even in races where there is no actual incumbent: The undecideds break toward the party that doesn't currently hold the seat.

The one exception is Presidential races. In these the undecideds break for the incumbent, 2 to 1. As the author points out, if that margin is reversed and Bush gets 1 out of 3, he wins 276 EVs. If Bush gets 38% we get Ohio and a total of 310 EVs. If he gets 2 out of 3, Bush picks up New Hampshire and 314 EVs.

Note that Zogby is saying that the undecideds are leaning 4-3 for Kerry, with a third still completely undecided. Let's assume the rest of the undecideds break down the same way or sit the election out. At that margin, Bush gets 42% of the undecideds, and that (as I mentioned) gives him 310 EVs. If all the remaining undecideds swing to Kerry, then he'll have around 70%, and he needs a 73% swing to carry Wisconsin.

Now, these numbers are fuzzy, they don't count vote fraud, etc., etc. But it looks to me that unless the undecideds swing toward Kerry disastrously, the worst we will have to put up with is a relatively close (6-10 point) EV victory.

Stay confident, stay busy, and we'll win this thing, folks!

[Mr. Silverback]

Heh. Kerry is so yesterday's news. Rice Butt is so...Rice Butty.

I hereby nominate for Quote of the Day.

[Mr. Silverback]

Nope. The Pack will win, and so will Dubya.