Skip to comments.WHY KERRY WILL LOSE EARLY AND BADLY - (The states he should be winning but isn't)
Posted on 10/27/2004 6:26:06 PM PDT by KMC1
Depending on the turnout (wink, wink), I am beginning to believe that Kerry will conclude one of the most miserable campaigns for President ever by losing in states he "shouldn't" be early on election night.
Today a new poll showed again that President Bush is dead even with Senator Kerry in New Jersey. This is unbelievable. Al Gore walked away with New Jersey early in the evening in 2000. But if Kerry loses it my prediction is for Bush to almost run the board.
The reasons why Kerry is doing badly in New Jersey is partly not his own doing but his party's. New Jersey has the most corrupt state government in the entire Union. The Democrats are in control of everything - and as could be expected - everything is a mess. Governor McGreevey named his gay lover to the position of "Homeland Security Advisor", the man wasn't even a U.S. Citizen, nor could he even get the clearance needed to attend Federal security briefings. And this is happening in the second most impacted state following 9/11.
BUT weren't those "boys nights out" fun...
The Democratic corruption has left a bad taste, but voters in New Jersey are also realizing that they don't have any state-wide elected officials that they really had a voice in putting there. McGreevey is stepping aside and an "appointed" Governor will run the state for 18 months. One of the Senators bought his way to the Senate. The other was a bait and switch for New Jersey voters.
Look for a voter's rebellion...sick of the corruption, New Jersey voters will choose President Bush as their choice, even some out of protest.
With the 16 electoral votes that go with it, New Jersey will significantly change the electoral college count. And if it goes BUSH early on Tuesday night - a state that BUSH spent almost no money in, Kerry can kiss the White House goodbye.
When you add to the New Jersey equation the fact that Kerry is trailing in Hawaii - which was an 18% win for Gore in 2000 - those combined 20 electoral votes are as big as Ohio. (Another state that President Bush is leading in...)
And Bush still has a half a case of Whoop A$$ left.
I like it,fingers crossed
And this will add to the pile of horse pucky that the major news networks know what they're doing by calling the election close!
Kerry's staff must be $hitting their collective pants now. If he (Kerry)was defending the Alamo, the east wall was just breached... (my sincere apologies to all the son's and daughters of Texas liberty).
Dayum I need to up the prozac.
Well, this is a happy article!!!
Given McGreevey's sexual preferences I'd say this is an accurate statement....
Most of the battleground states are in the Eastern Time Zone (plus a few like New Jersey that shouldn't be in play for Bush, but somehow still are). We have Florida (except the panhandle, of course), Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and we should know what has happened in Maine and New Hampshire, all before most of the rest of the nation is home to see the results on the tube.
New York could even be surprisingly close, but should go to Kerry. If Bush wins even half of these, and Republican senatorial candidates in the Carolinas, Georgia, and Florida are cruising, it might be over for Kerry much earlier than anyone suspects. I know Florida could run late as last time, when the Democratic bastions in South Florida wait to turn in vote totals, so they know how many votes they need to manufacture, but it may be out of their reach.
An hour later that evening will have Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota done. If the late (after work) voters there hear that Bush is winning states in the Eastern Time Zone that he shouldn't, then we could pick up some late undecideds who "just want to vote for the winner", which could tip all those states to Bush. If that happens, everything west of the Central Time Zone will be academic.
KERRY IS TRAILING HAWAII??? LOLOL
Even more noteworthy than New Jersey is Hawaii. Hawaii sort of exists in a vacuum-- there's no advertising dollars spent there, no get out the vote drives, and nobody is campaigning there. I wonder what people see and hear in Hawaii that makes a 20 point Kerry lead evaporate that the rest of the country is supposedly missing. It makes you wonder how close things really are or aren't. Not that I'm getting complacent...
Can you feel it all coming together? From here at headquarters we can see it: John Kerry's message is coming out in the media and TV commercials, record numbers of new voters have been registered, and the on-the-ground, volunteer-driven efforts are moving the vote in all of the key battleground states.
Tonight we're setting a new goal: 100,000 calls in one night. To do that we need everybody to double the number of calls they make tonight. The volunteers you recruit tonight are the most likely to stay involved through Election Day.
Putting the finishing touches on victory is the hardest part of the campaign. And no group of volunteers has stood up to that challenge like the Phone Corps.
Please keep calling tonight. Double your calls.
Phone Corps Designer
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Union workers in Atlantic City have been picketing (they are on strike) since October 1, so I imagine they are a little more concerned about the new replacements coming in for their jobs than getting some rich New Englander to the Oval Office.
I believe Hawaii might be the most tell-tale sign I've seen, not to mention MINNESOTA BABY!
I might run for president just to make frequent campaign appearances in Hawaii...
I would have loved for Bush to campaign deep in the heart of Kerry bases in cities such as Boston, Chicago, Seattle, and L.A. on the final leg of his campaign. Really drive some nails into Kerry's coffin by holding rallies downtown smack dab in the middle of these socialist paradises. Unfortunately, he's coming to Green Bay, WI on Saturday(for the thousandth time) again to speak to the choir. Bush could have finished with a bang and demoralized the Kerry campaign.
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