Election Predictions!!!!

Weekly Standard ^ | 10/28/04 | Various

[swilhelm73]

Election Predictions!!!! Kristol, Barnes, Last, Matus, Tell, Labash, and the rest go out on a limb for Bush, Kerry, and Congress. by Weekly Standard Staff 10/28/2004 3:00:00 PM Increase Font Size Printer-Friendly

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William Kristol

Bush wins Popular Vote: 52% Bush - 47% Kerry Electoral College: 348 Bush - 190 Kerry

Senate: 54 (R), 46 (D)

House: 232 (R), 202 (D), 1 (I)

Dark horse: Tom Daschle loses to John Thune in South Dakota.

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Stephen Hayes

Kerry wins Popular Vote: 50% Kerry - 48% Bush Electoral College: 291 Kerry - 247 Bush

Senate: 52 (R), 47 (D), 1 (I)

House: 230 (R), 205 (D)

Dark horse: Wisconsin, long regarded as the clean government state, will be so overwhelmed with voter fraud that pundits in 2008 will speak of avoiding the "Wisconsin problem." Bonus prediction: Packers beat Redskins 38-17.

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Fred Barnes

Bush wins Popular Vote: 52% Bush - 47% Kerry Electoral College: 306 Bush - 232 Kerry

Senate: 54 (R), 46 (D)

House: 234 (R), 201 (D)

Dark horse: Dalton Tanonaka (R) upsets Congressman Neil Abercrombie (D) in Hawaii.

Bonus dark horse: Referenda to ban same-sex marriage win in all 11 states.

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Victorino Matus

Kerry wins Popular Vote: 49% Kerry - 47% Bush Electoral College: Kerry 285 - Bush 253

Senate: 49 (R), 50 (D), 1 (I)

House: 226 (R), 206 (D), 3 (I)

Dark horse: An upset is brewing in the Colorado Senate race--Pete Coors makes a comeback . . . and (t)wins!

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Jonathan V. Last

Bush wins Popular Vote: 54% Bush - 46% Kerry Electoral College: 293 Bush - 245 Kerry

Senate: 54 (R), 46 (D)

House: 234 (R), 200 (D), 1 (I)

Dark horse: Alan Keyes fails to garner even 35% of the vote in Illinois, dooming the state Republican party for years. And despite losing the popular vote decisively, Kerry challenges the election based on results in a few key states.

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Matt Labash

Kerry wins Popular Vote: 50% Kerry - 49% Bush Electoral College: 295 Kerry - 243 Bush

Senate: 52 (R), 47 (D), 1 (I)

House: 234 (R) - 201 (D)

Dark horse: Barack Obama suffers devastating election-day backlash. Alan Keyes loses by a mere 47 points.

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Terry Eastland

Bush wins Popular Vote: 50% Bush - 49% Kerry Electoral College: 296 Bush -242 Kerry

Senate: 543 (R), 46 (D), 1 (I)

House: 230 (R), 205 (D)

Dark horse: Kerry takes Florida and Pennsylvania, but the Midwest goes for Bush as values voters decide the election--at least on the initial count. Kerry goes to court in states where the margin of victory in each is less than 537 votes: Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. Chaos ensues as lawyers take over, but only Minnesota shifts to Kerry, making the final tally 286-252.

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David Tell

Bush wins Popular Vote: Bush 48.8% - Kerry 49.4% Electoral College count known on 11/3/04: Bush 232 - Kerry 231 Electoral College on 1/20/05: Bush 270 - Kerry 267

Senate: 52 (R), 47 (D), 1 (I)

House: 231 (R), 203 (D), 1 (I)

Dark horse: Some combination of (A) logistical difficulties produced by absentee, provisional, and mail-in ballots; (B) statutorily required recounts; (C) partisan litigation; and (D) Hawaii's time zone will delay the final Electoral College count for at least a week. A "faithless elector" in West Virginia robs Bush of one vote to which he would otherwise be entitled. Democrats in Congress begin a major push to abolish the Electoral College. Defeated for reelection, former Sen. Tom Daschle of South Dakota is no longer around to stop them.

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Katherine Mangu-Ward

Bush wins Popular Vote: 50% Bush - 50% Kerry Electoral College: 269 Bush - 269 Kerry--Republican House decides for Bush

Senate: 51 (D), 49 (R)

House: Republicans retain control (who knows by how much) but I predict an upset in Vermont, knocking Bernie Sanders out of his seat and finally eliminating the irritating "1" in the "Other" category in all these tallies

Dark horse: Hillary Clinton for VP. Obviously, this is a very dark horse. But here's how it's possible: When the House decides the outcome for president (as it will in the event of an Electoral College tie), the Senate chooses the vice president. But it's not the current Senate that decides, it's the newly elected Senate. I predict that Democrats take control of the Senate, ditch Edwards, and install Hillary, thus giving her a fantastic (if unorthodox) launch pad for her 2008 presidential campaign.

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Richard Starr

Bush wins Popular Vote: 49.9% Bush - 49.1% Kerry Electoral College: 283 Bush - 255 Kerry

Senate: 50 (R), 50 (D)

House: 228 (R) 206 (D)

Dark horse: Kerry calls off the lawyers and doesn't litigate the outcome.

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David Skinner

Bush wins Popular Vote: 51% Bush - 49% Kerry Electoral College: 271 Bush - 267 Kerry

Senate: 54 (R), 46 (D)

House: 234 (R), 200 (D), 1 (I)

Dark horse: In District 8 of Virginia, Jim Moran will lose. I've seen no polls on this, and Moran has had more money to spend than his challenger, Lisa Marie Cheney, an unknown whose only TV ad is mediocre. But here's the thing: Every local voter I know who has an opinion of Moran has a negative opinion of him.

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Matthew Continetti

Bush wins Popular Vote: 50% Bush - 49% Kerry Electoral College: Bush 281 - Kerry 257.

Senate: 51 (R), 48 (D), 1 (I)

House: 233 (R), 202 (D)

Dark horse: Swift Boat Veteran for Truth John O'Neill emerges as frontrunner for the 2008 Republican nomination.

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Rachel DiCarlo

Bush wins Popular Vote: 51% Bush - 48% Kerry Electoral College: 298 Bush - 240 Kerry

Senate: 53 (R), 46 (D), 1 (I)

House: 228 (R), 206 (D), 1 (I)

Dark horse: Thune pulls it off in South Dakota.

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Michael Goldfarb

Bush wins Popular Vote: 50% Bush - 49% Kerry Electoral College: 297 Bush - 241 Kerry

Senate: 53 (R), 46 (D), 1 (I)

House: 235 (R), 200 (D)

Dark horse: Bush will win my home state, the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania.

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Duncan Currie

Bush wins Popular Vote: 52% Bush - 47% Kerry Electoral College: 286 Bush -252 Kerry

Senate: 54 (R), 45 (D), 1 (I)

House: 229 (R), 207 (D), 1 (I)

Dark horse: John Thune takes down Tom Daschle in South Dakota. Oh, and whatever happens on election night, Terry McAuliffe will spin it as "a very good night for Democrats" (or something like that).

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[Binghamton_native]

I believe your electoral vote total is 3 too high. Total electoral votes is 538.

[MNJohnnie]

Bush 52% Kerry 47% Bush takes 301 Electoral votes. Election decided Nov 2 by 11pm CST when MN goes for Bush.

[MNJohnnie]

Bush 52% Kerry 47% Bush takes 301 Electoral votes. Election decided Nov 2 by 11pm CST when MN goes for Bush.

[Types_with_Fist]

Naturally I'll get into trouble. I'll be called names as well but... 288-250 Kerry. Sorry.

[matchwood]

Saw a prediction that had GWB squeaking over the top but that R's would capture 55 Senate seats.

For me: GWB 338, JK 200

[Juan Medén]

Do we get to kick these smug idiots in the a$$ if they are wrong. Now that would make for more responsible reporting ;-)

[Juan Medén]

Do we get to kick these smug idiots in the a$$ if they are wrong. Now that would make for more responsible reporting ;-)

[Petronski]

Petronski

Bush wins Popular Vote: 53% Bush - 46% Bush Electoral College: 338 Bush - 200 Kerry

Senate: 55 (R), 45 (D)

House: 232 (R), 202 (D), 1 (I)

Dark horse: Murkowski pulls it out in AK

[MediaMole]

Bush 52% Kerry 47% 306 - 232

Senate 54 45 1

House 234R 201D

Overall, a very bad night for the dems. Daschle gone. Bowles losing. Martinez wins in Florida which isn't even close for the dems.

Feingold will be the new Senate minority leader.

[RightWhale]

What about Alaska? Murkowski Knowles 50-50

[CharacterCounts]

Here's my prediction:

Soros will get caught trying to bribe members of the Electoral College to switch their votes to Kerry.

[puroresu]

Good predictions! For those people who are in a panic mode about Ohio, I did a little research. Ohio has gone MORE Republican than the national average in every presidential election since World War II, except for two landslide elections (1964 & 1972). In every close or competitive election, it has gone more Republican than the national average. In other words, it seems highly unlikely that we would lose Ohio unless we were in trouble in enough other states to lose the election no matter what.

Here are the stats. The first number is the percentage of the vote the GOP got nationally for each year listed, the second number is the percentage the GOP got in Ohio that year:

1948: 45.1 / 49.2

1952: 55.1 / 56.8

1956: 57.4 / 61.1

1960: 49.5 / 53.3

1964: 38.5 / 37.1

1968: 42.7 / 45.2

1972: 60.7 / 59.6

1976: 48.0 / 48.7

1980: 50.7 / 51.1

1984: 58.8 / 58.9

1988: 53.4 / 55.0

1992: 37.7 / 38.3

1996: 40.7 / 41.0

I don't have the stats for 2000, but I know that Bush did better in Ohio than nationally. He won by between three and four points in Ohio, while narrowly losing the popular vote nationwide.

So Ohio hasn't gone more Democrat than the nation as a whole in over 30 years, and has only gone more 'Rat than the nation as a whole twice since World War II, both in landslide elections.

I think this is good news! Unless you think we'll lose the popular vote, we should win Ohio.

[crz]

I am wondering the same about California. I understand a huge registration turnout there, I suspect it isnt for the dims either.

[Lady Jag]

Barnes and Last are closest.

[freestyle]

That is some great research, but is it in the margin of democratic voter fraud?

[puroresu]

I hope our guys have a handle on it! Fraud is the one thing the 'Rats have going for them.

[draino]

GWB - 51% (286 EV)

Kerry - 48% (252 EV)

Kerry doesn't fight the result. Finally shows some class.

Senate GOP pick up 3 Seats. (Dashole goes down).

[mak5]

I make it 320-218 Bush, 52-47 Bush in popular vote.

[dufekin]

Perfect Storm.

POPULAR: Kerry 59, Bush 38. Extreme voter fraud.

ELECTORAL: Bush 269, Kerry 269. House decides.

SENATE: Rep 55, Dem 44

HOUSE: Republicans gain 5.

[Bandaneira]

Maykbe Diva wins the big one on November 2nd !

The Melbourne Cup that is...