Election Predictions!!!!

Weekly Standard ^ | 10/28/04 | Various

[swilhelm73]

Election Predictions!!!! Kristol, Barnes, Last, Matus, Tell, Labash, and the rest go out on a limb for Bush, Kerry, and Congress. by Weekly Standard Staff 10/28/2004 3:00:00 PM Increase Font Size Printer-Friendly

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William Kristol

Bush wins Popular Vote: 52% Bush - 47% Kerry Electoral College: 348 Bush - 190 Kerry

Senate: 54 (R), 46 (D)

House: 232 (R), 202 (D), 1 (I)

Dark horse: Tom Daschle loses to John Thune in South Dakota.

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Stephen Hayes

Kerry wins Popular Vote: 50% Kerry - 48% Bush Electoral College: 291 Kerry - 247 Bush

Senate: 52 (R), 47 (D), 1 (I)

House: 230 (R), 205 (D)

Dark horse: Wisconsin, long regarded as the clean government state, will be so overwhelmed with voter fraud that pundits in 2008 will speak of avoiding the "Wisconsin problem." Bonus prediction: Packers beat Redskins 38-17.

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Fred Barnes

Bush wins Popular Vote: 52% Bush - 47% Kerry Electoral College: 306 Bush - 232 Kerry

Senate: 54 (R), 46 (D)

House: 234 (R), 201 (D)

Dark horse: Dalton Tanonaka (R) upsets Congressman Neil Abercrombie (D) in Hawaii.

Bonus dark horse: Referenda to ban same-sex marriage win in all 11 states.

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Victorino Matus

Kerry wins Popular Vote: 49% Kerry - 47% Bush Electoral College: Kerry 285 - Bush 253

Senate: 49 (R), 50 (D), 1 (I)

House: 226 (R), 206 (D), 3 (I)

Dark horse: An upset is brewing in the Colorado Senate race--Pete Coors makes a comeback . . . and (t)wins!

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Jonathan V. Last

Bush wins Popular Vote: 54% Bush - 46% Kerry Electoral College: 293 Bush - 245 Kerry

Senate: 54 (R), 46 (D)

House: 234 (R), 200 (D), 1 (I)

Dark horse: Alan Keyes fails to garner even 35% of the vote in Illinois, dooming the state Republican party for years. And despite losing the popular vote decisively, Kerry challenges the election based on results in a few key states.

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Matt Labash

Kerry wins Popular Vote: 50% Kerry - 49% Bush Electoral College: 295 Kerry - 243 Bush

Senate: 52 (R), 47 (D), 1 (I)

House: 234 (R) - 201 (D)

Dark horse: Barack Obama suffers devastating election-day backlash. Alan Keyes loses by a mere 47 points.

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Terry Eastland

Bush wins Popular Vote: 50% Bush - 49% Kerry Electoral College: 296 Bush -242 Kerry

Senate: 543 (R), 46 (D), 1 (I)

House: 230 (R), 205 (D)

Dark horse: Kerry takes Florida and Pennsylvania, but the Midwest goes for Bush as values voters decide the election--at least on the initial count. Kerry goes to court in states where the margin of victory in each is less than 537 votes: Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. Chaos ensues as lawyers take over, but only Minnesota shifts to Kerry, making the final tally 286-252.

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David Tell

Bush wins Popular Vote: Bush 48.8% - Kerry 49.4% Electoral College count known on 11/3/04: Bush 232 - Kerry 231 Electoral College on 1/20/05: Bush 270 - Kerry 267

Senate: 52 (R), 47 (D), 1 (I)

House: 231 (R), 203 (D), 1 (I)

Dark horse: Some combination of (A) logistical difficulties produced by absentee, provisional, and mail-in ballots; (B) statutorily required recounts; (C) partisan litigation; and (D) Hawaii's time zone will delay the final Electoral College count for at least a week. A "faithless elector" in West Virginia robs Bush of one vote to which he would otherwise be entitled. Democrats in Congress begin a major push to abolish the Electoral College. Defeated for reelection, former Sen. Tom Daschle of South Dakota is no longer around to stop them.

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Katherine Mangu-Ward

Bush wins Popular Vote: 50% Bush - 50% Kerry Electoral College: 269 Bush - 269 Kerry--Republican House decides for Bush

Senate: 51 (D), 49 (R)

House: Republicans retain control (who knows by how much) but I predict an upset in Vermont, knocking Bernie Sanders out of his seat and finally eliminating the irritating "1" in the "Other" category in all these tallies

Dark horse: Hillary Clinton for VP. Obviously, this is a very dark horse. But here's how it's possible: When the House decides the outcome for president (as it will in the event of an Electoral College tie), the Senate chooses the vice president. But it's not the current Senate that decides, it's the newly elected Senate. I predict that Democrats take control of the Senate, ditch Edwards, and install Hillary, thus giving her a fantastic (if unorthodox) launch pad for her 2008 presidential campaign.

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Richard Starr

Bush wins Popular Vote: 49.9% Bush - 49.1% Kerry Electoral College: 283 Bush - 255 Kerry

Senate: 50 (R), 50 (D)

House: 228 (R) 206 (D)

Dark horse: Kerry calls off the lawyers and doesn't litigate the outcome.

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David Skinner

Bush wins Popular Vote: 51% Bush - 49% Kerry Electoral College: 271 Bush - 267 Kerry

Senate: 54 (R), 46 (D)

House: 234 (R), 200 (D), 1 (I)

Dark horse: In District 8 of Virginia, Jim Moran will lose. I've seen no polls on this, and Moran has had more money to spend than his challenger, Lisa Marie Cheney, an unknown whose only TV ad is mediocre. But here's the thing: Every local voter I know who has an opinion of Moran has a negative opinion of him.

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Matthew Continetti

Bush wins Popular Vote: 50% Bush - 49% Kerry Electoral College: Bush 281 - Kerry 257.

Senate: 51 (R), 48 (D), 1 (I)

House: 233 (R), 202 (D)

Dark horse: Swift Boat Veteran for Truth John O'Neill emerges as frontrunner for the 2008 Republican nomination.

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Rachel DiCarlo

Bush wins Popular Vote: 51% Bush - 48% Kerry Electoral College: 298 Bush - 240 Kerry

Senate: 53 (R), 46 (D), 1 (I)

House: 228 (R), 206 (D), 1 (I)

Dark horse: Thune pulls it off in South Dakota.

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Michael Goldfarb

Bush wins Popular Vote: 50% Bush - 49% Kerry Electoral College: 297 Bush - 241 Kerry

Senate: 53 (R), 46 (D), 1 (I)

House: 235 (R), 200 (D)

Dark horse: Bush will win my home state, the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania.

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Duncan Currie

Bush wins Popular Vote: 52% Bush - 47% Kerry Electoral College: 286 Bush -252 Kerry

Senate: 54 (R), 45 (D), 1 (I)

House: 229 (R), 207 (D), 1 (I)

Dark horse: John Thune takes down Tom Daschle in South Dakota. Oh, and whatever happens on election night, Terry McAuliffe will spin it as "a very good night for Democrats" (or something like that).

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[FloridianBushFan]

here are my guesses

at the least Bush 310 (52%) Kerry 228 (47%)

Senate 55 (R) 44(D) 1 (I)

House: Republican control

Thune Loses, Bush Keeps all red states except NH and takes WI,IA,MN,NM,HI

EV could increase though to 327 Bush 211 Kerry ,cause I think MI might go to bush as well

Greatest number I think is 363 Bush 175 Kerry
This is if PA and NJ goes to Bush. I think this is the greatest number though and maybe even a good possibility with the way PA is leaning lately.

[southernnorthcarolina]

I predict a RED Election Day.

Popular vote: Bush 51, Kerry 47.

Electoral vote: Bush 311, Kerry 227.

Senate: GOP 55, Dem 45

House: GOP 231, Dem 203, Ind 1.

Bush carries all states he won in 2000, plus the Upper Mississippi Valley (Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota), plus New Mexico, plus the 2nd CD of Maine. Kerry hangs on to the swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Oregon, and Hawaii.

[The Mayor]

William Kristol

Bush wins Popular Vote: 52% Bush - 47% Kerry Electoral College: 348 Bush - 190 Kerry

I AGREE!

[Jeff Head]

On 10/15, my prediction was for a 320 to 218 Bush victory in the Electoral College. I believe he will have a 5+ percentage point lead in the popular vote.

[maxter]

I predict we will all be exhausted on 11/3 from predictions and from trying to interpret all of these polls!

[not2worry]

I without a doubt will have gained 10 pounds from nerveous over-eating of M&Ms,Hostess Cupcakes and everything chocolate!

[True_wesT]

I'm a little surprised at how many of these guys showed Democrat success in the Senate races.

[Total Package]

I have posted this today.
I am in Toledo, OH. Gore won here with 58% of the vote. Bush has big support here in this Dem strong hold. Bush will get about 50% here which is big. Bush will win Ohio by +5%. I have a ticket to see Bush tomorrow; he is coming to Toledo. Kerry was here today and that says a lot to me. If Kerry has to come to a Dem strong hold 5 days out he is in real trouble. btw Kerry only had 4,000 people at a place that holds 10,000

[MichelleWSC]

Okay I'll play too

Pop Vote Bush 50% Kerry 48% Nader 2%

EV- Bush 276 Kerry 262

[RoseD]

Definitely! Bush all the way and I predict he pulls along Coburn along with him!

[nickcarraway]

The real darkhorse: Blanche Lincoln loses in Arkansas.

[Dysfunctional]

The newsies will hardly be able to contain themselves when they call NH for Kerry; but when NJ falls, then PA falls... all in the W column, they will be stunned.

This will stun the bus-loads of serial voters about to finish their fraudulent Kerry efforts in the Midwest; they will cease their efforts and W will gain a near riot of Electoral votes.

My gut feeling.

[BuckeyeForever]

Kerry 51 percent, Bush 48 percent, others 1 percent.

The polling data is very discouraging. Kerry will eke out a victory.

The debates were the cause of Kerry's comeback from the aftermath of the conventions. Bush simply blew the debates, and gave Kerry the opportunity to dispel the notion that he was a wild-eyed crazy man.

[bastantebueno55]

Do we get to kick these smug idiots in the a$$ if they are wrong.

I never heard of some of these jokers, but what is Victorino Matus smoking? He thinks the pubbies go down to 49 in the Senate!

I think the fairest thing would be to say that Stephen Hayes, Matus, Matt Labash, and Katherine Mangu-Ward (she must have been hitting the gonja really hard to come up with the Hellery scenario!) should have to preface anything they write until the next presidential election with a "truth in advertising" notice detailing their delusional wishful thinking predictions in this race, so that no one will take anything they say seriously!

[dripp]

I can confidently predict that I will have an ulcer by Tuesday night.

I already do, this is driving me insane!

[Fledermaus]

Either YOU posted these wrong or the Weekly Standard did.

Many of the "Bush wins popular vote" showed Kerry with a higher percentage. Ditto Electoral Vote.

Also, if these are correct, I didn't think I'd see so much pessimissm from those other than Kristol (who sweats pessimissm) and Barnes.

But that's one main reason I don't read the Week-Kneed Standard.

[swilhelm73]

What the heck are you complaining about exactly?

[Fledermaus]

I also can't believe Matus and Labash, two their better writers, have Kerry winning it.

[Doctor Stochastic]

I would add, the Democrats get the Senate, 51 (+1 independent) to 48 but the GOP keeps the House.

[Ladysmith]

Feingold will be the new Senate minority leader.

Oh, Dear Lord, please don't let that happen!!