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Election Predictions!!!!
Weekly Standard ^ | 10/28/04 | Various

Posted on 10/28/2004 6:13:20 PM PDT by swilhelm73

Election Predictions!!!! Kristol, Barnes, Last, Matus, Tell, Labash, and the rest go out on a limb for Bush, Kerry, and Congress. by Weekly Standard Staff 10/28/2004 3:00:00 PM Increase Font Size Printer-Friendly

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William Kristol

Bush wins Popular Vote: 52% Bush - 47% Kerry Electoral College: 348 Bush - 190 Kerry

Senate: 54 (R), 46 (D)

House: 232 (R), 202 (D), 1 (I)

Dark horse: Tom Daschle loses to John Thune in South Dakota.

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Stephen Hayes

Kerry wins Popular Vote: 50% Kerry - 48% Bush Electoral College: 291 Kerry - 247 Bush

Senate: 52 (R), 47 (D), 1 (I)

House: 230 (R), 205 (D)

Dark horse: Wisconsin, long regarded as the clean government state, will be so overwhelmed with voter fraud that pundits in 2008 will speak of avoiding the "Wisconsin problem." Bonus prediction: Packers beat Redskins 38-17.

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Fred Barnes

Bush wins Popular Vote: 52% Bush - 47% Kerry Electoral College: 306 Bush - 232 Kerry

Senate: 54 (R), 46 (D)

House: 234 (R), 201 (D)

Dark horse: Dalton Tanonaka (R) upsets Congressman Neil Abercrombie (D) in Hawaii.

Bonus dark horse: Referenda to ban same-sex marriage win in all 11 states.

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Victorino Matus

Kerry wins Popular Vote: 49% Kerry - 47% Bush Electoral College: Kerry 285 - Bush 253

Senate: 49 (R), 50 (D), 1 (I)

House: 226 (R), 206 (D), 3 (I)

Dark horse: An upset is brewing in the Colorado Senate race--Pete Coors makes a comeback . . . and (t)wins!

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Jonathan V. Last

Bush wins Popular Vote: 54% Bush - 46% Kerry Electoral College: 293 Bush - 245 Kerry

Senate: 54 (R), 46 (D)

House: 234 (R), 200 (D), 1 (I)

Dark horse: Alan Keyes fails to garner even 35% of the vote in Illinois, dooming the state Republican party for years. And despite losing the popular vote decisively, Kerry challenges the election based on results in a few key states.

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Matt Labash

Kerry wins Popular Vote: 50% Kerry - 49% Bush Electoral College: 295 Kerry - 243 Bush

Senate: 52 (R), 47 (D), 1 (I)

House: 234 (R) - 201 (D)

Dark horse: Barack Obama suffers devastating election-day backlash. Alan Keyes loses by a mere 47 points.

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Terry Eastland

Bush wins Popular Vote: 50% Bush - 49% Kerry Electoral College: 296 Bush -242 Kerry

Senate: 543 (R), 46 (D), 1 (I)

House: 230 (R), 205 (D)

Dark horse: Kerry takes Florida and Pennsylvania, but the Midwest goes for Bush as values voters decide the election--at least on the initial count. Kerry goes to court in states where the margin of victory in each is less than 537 votes: Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. Chaos ensues as lawyers take over, but only Minnesota shifts to Kerry, making the final tally 286-252.

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David Tell

Bush wins Popular Vote: Bush 48.8% - Kerry 49.4% Electoral College count known on 11/3/04: Bush 232 - Kerry 231 Electoral College on 1/20/05: Bush 270 - Kerry 267

Senate: 52 (R), 47 (D), 1 (I)

House: 231 (R), 203 (D), 1 (I)

Dark horse: Some combination of (A) logistical difficulties produced by absentee, provisional, and mail-in ballots; (B) statutorily required recounts; (C) partisan litigation; and (D) Hawaii's time zone will delay the final Electoral College count for at least a week. A "faithless elector" in West Virginia robs Bush of one vote to which he would otherwise be entitled. Democrats in Congress begin a major push to abolish the Electoral College. Defeated for reelection, former Sen. Tom Daschle of South Dakota is no longer around to stop them.

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Katherine Mangu-Ward

Bush wins Popular Vote: 50% Bush - 50% Kerry Electoral College: 269 Bush - 269 Kerry--Republican House decides for Bush

Senate: 51 (D), 49 (R)

House: Republicans retain control (who knows by how much) but I predict an upset in Vermont, knocking Bernie Sanders out of his seat and finally eliminating the irritating "1" in the "Other" category in all these tallies

Dark horse: Hillary Clinton for VP. Obviously, this is a very dark horse. But here's how it's possible: When the House decides the outcome for president (as it will in the event of an Electoral College tie), the Senate chooses the vice president. But it's not the current Senate that decides, it's the newly elected Senate. I predict that Democrats take control of the Senate, ditch Edwards, and install Hillary, thus giving her a fantastic (if unorthodox) launch pad for her 2008 presidential campaign.

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Richard Starr

Bush wins Popular Vote: 49.9% Bush - 49.1% Kerry Electoral College: 283 Bush - 255 Kerry

Senate: 50 (R), 50 (D)

House: 228 (R) 206 (D)

Dark horse: Kerry calls off the lawyers and doesn't litigate the outcome.

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David Skinner

Bush wins Popular Vote: 51% Bush - 49% Kerry Electoral College: 271 Bush - 267 Kerry

Senate: 54 (R), 46 (D)

House: 234 (R), 200 (D), 1 (I)

Dark horse: In District 8 of Virginia, Jim Moran will lose. I've seen no polls on this, and Moran has had more money to spend than his challenger, Lisa Marie Cheney, an unknown whose only TV ad is mediocre. But here's the thing: Every local voter I know who has an opinion of Moran has a negative opinion of him.

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Matthew Continetti

Bush wins Popular Vote: 50% Bush - 49% Kerry Electoral College: Bush 281 - Kerry 257.

Senate: 51 (R), 48 (D), 1 (I)

House: 233 (R), 202 (D)

Dark horse: Swift Boat Veteran for Truth John O'Neill emerges as frontrunner for the 2008 Republican nomination.

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Rachel DiCarlo

Bush wins Popular Vote: 51% Bush - 48% Kerry Electoral College: 298 Bush - 240 Kerry

Senate: 53 (R), 46 (D), 1 (I)

House: 228 (R), 206 (D), 1 (I)

Dark horse: Thune pulls it off in South Dakota.

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Michael Goldfarb

Bush wins Popular Vote: 50% Bush - 49% Kerry Electoral College: 297 Bush - 241 Kerry

Senate: 53 (R), 46 (D), 1 (I)

House: 235 (R), 200 (D)

Dark horse: Bush will win my home state, the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania.

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Duncan Currie

Bush wins Popular Vote: 52% Bush - 47% Kerry Electoral College: 286 Bush -252 Kerry

Senate: 54 (R), 45 (D), 1 (I)

House: 229 (R), 207 (D), 1 (I)

Dark horse: John Thune takes down Tom Daschle in South Dakota. Oh, and whatever happens on election night, Terry McAuliffe will spin it as "a very good night for Democrats" (or something like that).

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TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: gwb2004; predictions; thune
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1 posted on 10/28/2004 6:13:20 PM PDT by swilhelm73
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Comment #2 Removed by Moderator

To: Admin Moderator

I submitted this a few moments ago and got an error message.

I've see that error a few times already, but the article goes through anyway.

Well, this time it did not. I submitted, got the error, and did a search to find the article - not there.

I notice FR has been a bit flaky of late overall.


3 posted on 10/28/2004 6:16:01 PM PDT by swilhelm73 (We've found more WMDs in Iraq than we've found disenfranchised blacks in Florida. --Ann Coulter)
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Comment #4 Removed by Moderator

Bush: 53% (316 EVs), Kerry: 46% (222 EVs)


5 posted on 10/28/2004 6:18:16 PM PDT by The G Man (Are Osama Bin Laden and Saddam Hussein better off now then they were 4 years ago?)
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To: swilhelm73
I'm calling it Bush 320, Kerry 218
6 posted on 10/28/2004 6:18:18 PM PDT by Jeff Head (www.dragonsfuryseries.com)
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To: NJ_wants_Bush
I think Kristel is got this one right.

I also think Daschle goes down.

7 posted on 10/28/2004 6:22:45 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration
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To: swilhelm73

I'm bookmarking this post for review on November 3. It will be interesting.


8 posted on 10/28/2004 6:24:57 PM PDT by alwaysconservative (No assumptions, no excuses, get out the vote for President BUSH! (I already voted!))
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To: Jeff Head

Bush 404
Kerry 134
(yeah... I took California for Bush!!)



Fall back:
Bush 349
Kerry 189


9 posted on 10/28/2004 6:27:49 PM PDT by freestyle
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To: NJ_wants_Bush
whatever happens on election night, Terry McAuliffe will spin it as "a very good night for Democrats" (or something like that).

LOL! Best prediction of the bunch.

10 posted on 10/28/2004 6:28:33 PM PDT by zarf
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To: swilhelm73

Early voting exit polls for Texas = Bush up 75%


11 posted on 10/28/2004 6:29:14 PM PDT by native texan
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To: swilhelm73

Early voting exit polls for Texas = Bush up 75%


12 posted on 10/28/2004 6:29:17 PM PDT by native texan
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To: swilhelm73

I can confidently predict that I will have an ulcer by Tuesday night.


13 posted on 10/28/2004 6:30:34 PM PDT by hellinahandcart
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To: swilhelm73

I have Bush by five and the electoral edge, but that is now. We have a few more hours of BS to go.


14 posted on 10/28/2004 6:31:31 PM PDT by Cold Heat (http://ice.he.net/~freepnet/kerry/staticpages/index.php?page=20040531140357545)
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To: freestyle
I'm predicting 320 to 218...but hoping Bush gets 350 to 400.

So I am right with you!

15 posted on 10/28/2004 6:32:09 PM PDT by Jeff Head (www.dragonsfuryseries.com)
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To: swilhelm73

I'll also go on record and say Bush 348 Kerry 190, Bush takes PA, MI, FL, OH, NM, MN, IA, WI, along with the usual suspects. Senate: R's pickup LA (outright), FL, SC, NC, GA, and SD and we lose IL and AK. We hold OK and CO. And it is very close in AR, but Lincoln prevails. So, that gives us +4 for a total of 55. House goes to 239 R, 196 D.


16 posted on 10/28/2004 6:32:35 PM PDT by Tuxedo (Real friends don't let friends vote Democrat.)
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To: native texan

I took my son and we voted today. I feel a bit better!


17 posted on 10/28/2004 6:32:49 PM PDT by Cold Heat (http://ice.he.net/~freepnet/kerry/staticpages/index.php?page=20040531140357545)
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To: swilhelm73

I'll take Bush 51%, Kerry 47%; 300 electoral votes for Bush.


18 posted on 10/28/2004 6:34:51 PM PDT by aBootes (Whatever Cheney hit, it's flat now)
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To: Tuxedo

Oh, and popular vote 54% Bush, 44% Kerry, 1% Nader. Boxer in a squeaker when it appears Kerry is DOA early enough in the evening.


19 posted on 10/28/2004 6:35:02 PM PDT by Tuxedo (Real friends don't let friends vote Democrat.)
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To: swilhelm73

Nothing from Mort Kondracke? He is pretty fair minded, i would say.

I'm going to guess the Beltway Boys on Sat. will show a Bush victory. They had him at 283 last week and I think that was without Ohio.


20 posted on 10/28/2004 6:35:17 PM PDT by TNCMAXQ
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To: NJ_wants_Bush

I believe your electoral vote total is 3 too high. Total electoral votes is 538.


21 posted on 10/28/2004 6:37:12 PM PDT by Binghamton_native
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To: swilhelm73

Bush 52% Kerry 47% Bush takes 301 Electoral votes. Election decided Nov 2 by 11pm CST when MN goes for Bush.


22 posted on 10/28/2004 6:39:00 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (Vote Bush 2004-We cannot survive a 9-10 President in a 9-11 World)
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To: swilhelm73

Bush 52% Kerry 47% Bush takes 301 Electoral votes. Election decided Nov 2 by 11pm CST when MN goes for Bush.


23 posted on 10/28/2004 6:39:05 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (Vote Bush 2004-We cannot survive a 9-10 President in a 9-11 World)
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To: swilhelm73

Naturally I'll get into trouble. I'll be called names as well but... 288-250 Kerry. Sorry.


24 posted on 10/28/2004 6:40:23 PM PDT by Types_with_Fist (I'm on FReep so often that when I read an article at another site I scroll down for the comments.)
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To: swilhelm73

Saw a prediction that had GWB squeaking over the top but that R's would capture 55 Senate seats.

For me: GWB 338, JK 200


25 posted on 10/28/2004 6:48:36 PM PDT by matchwood
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To: swilhelm73

Do we get to kick these smug idiots in the a$$ if they are wrong. Now that would make for more responsible reporting ;-)


26 posted on 10/28/2004 6:50:43 PM PDT by Juan Medén
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To: swilhelm73

Do we get to kick these smug idiots in the a$$ if they are wrong. Now that would make for more responsible reporting ;-)


27 posted on 10/28/2004 6:50:53 PM PDT by Juan Medén
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To: swilhelm73

Petronski

Bush wins Popular Vote: 53% Bush - 46% Bush Electoral College: 338 Bush - 200 Kerry

Senate: 55 (R), 45 (D)

House: 232 (R), 202 (D), 1 (I)

Dark horse: Murkowski pulls it out in AK


28 posted on 10/28/2004 6:52:58 PM PDT by Petronski (A Monday morning quarterback has never led any team to victory.)
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To: swilhelm73

Bush 52% Kerry 47% 306 - 232

Senate 54 45 1

House 234R 201D

Overall, a very bad night for the dems. Daschle gone. Bowles losing. Martinez wins in Florida which isn't even close for the dems.

Feingold will be the new Senate minority leader.


29 posted on 10/28/2004 6:59:13 PM PDT by MediaMole
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To: MediaMole

What about Alaska? Murkowski Knowles 50-50


30 posted on 10/28/2004 7:01:04 PM PDT by RightWhale (Withdraw from the 1967 UN Outer Space Treaty and establish property rights)
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To: swilhelm73
Here's my prediction:

Soros will get caught trying to bribe members of the Electoral College to switch their votes to Kerry.

31 posted on 10/28/2004 7:01:59 PM PDT by CharacterCounts
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To: Petronski

Good predictions! For those people who are in a panic mode about Ohio, I did a little research. Ohio has gone MORE Republican than the national average in every presidential election since World War II, except for two landslide elections (1964 & 1972). In every close or competitive election, it has gone more Republican than the national average. In other words, it seems highly unlikely that we would lose Ohio unless we were in trouble in enough other states to lose the election no matter what.

Here are the stats. The first number is the percentage of the vote the GOP got nationally for each year listed, the second number is the percentage the GOP got in Ohio that year:

1948: 45.1 / 49.2

1952: 55.1 / 56.8

1956: 57.4 / 61.1

1960: 49.5 / 53.3

1964: 38.5 / 37.1

1968: 42.7 / 45.2

1972: 60.7 / 59.6

1976: 48.0 / 48.7

1980: 50.7 / 51.1

1984: 58.8 / 58.9

1988: 53.4 / 55.0

1992: 37.7 / 38.3

1996: 40.7 / 41.0

I don't have the stats for 2000, but I know that Bush did better in Ohio than nationally. He won by between three and four points in Ohio, while narrowly losing the popular vote nationwide.

So Ohio hasn't gone more Democrat than the nation as a whole in over 30 years, and has only gone more 'Rat than the nation as a whole twice since World War II, both in landslide elections.

I think this is good news! Unless you think we'll lose the popular vote, we should win Ohio.


32 posted on 10/28/2004 7:09:24 PM PDT by puroresu
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To: freestyle

I am wondering the same about California. I understand a huge registration turnout there, I suspect it isnt for the dims either.


33 posted on 10/28/2004 7:10:45 PM PDT by crz
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To: swilhelm73

Barnes and Last are closest.


34 posted on 10/28/2004 7:14:27 PM PDT by Lady Jag (Used to be sciencediet but found the solution)
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To: puroresu

That is some great research, but is it in the margin of democratic voter fraud?


35 posted on 10/28/2004 7:15:37 PM PDT by freestyle
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To: freestyle

I hope our guys have a handle on it! Fraud is the one thing the 'Rats have going for them.


36 posted on 10/28/2004 7:22:13 PM PDT by puroresu
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To: swilhelm73
GWB - 51% (286 EV)

Kerry - 48% (252 EV)

Kerry doesn't fight the result. Finally shows some class.

Senate GOP pick up 3 Seats. (Dashole goes down).

37 posted on 10/28/2004 7:28:18 PM PDT by draino
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To: Jeff Head

I make it 320-218 Bush, 52-47 Bush in popular vote.


38 posted on 10/28/2004 7:28:34 PM PDT by mak5
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To: swilhelm73

Perfect Storm.

POPULAR: Kerry 59, Bush 38. Extreme voter fraud.

ELECTORAL: Bush 269, Kerry 269. House decides.

SENATE: Rep 55, Dem 44

HOUSE: Republicans gain 5.


39 posted on 10/28/2004 7:28:47 PM PDT by dufekin (President Kerry would have our enemies partying like it's 1969, when Kerry first committed treason.)
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To: swilhelm73

Maykbe Diva wins the big one on November 2nd !

The Melbourne Cup that is...


40 posted on 10/28/2004 7:29:43 PM PDT by Bandaneira (The Third Temple/House for All Nations/World Peace Centre...Coming Soon...)
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To: swilhelm73
here are my guesses

at the least Bush 310 (52%) Kerry 228 (47%)

Senate 55 (R) 44(D) 1 (I)

House: Republican control

Thune Loses, Bush Keeps all red states except NH and takes WI,IA,MN,NM,HI

EV could increase though to 327 Bush 211 Kerry ,cause I think MI might go to bush as well

Greatest number I think is 363 Bush 175 Kerry
This is if PA and NJ goes to Bush. I think this is the greatest number though and maybe even a good possibility with the way PA is leaning lately.
41 posted on 10/28/2004 7:29:59 PM PDT by FloridianBushFan
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To: swilhelm73
I predict a RED Election Day.

Popular vote: Bush 51, Kerry 47.

Electoral vote: Bush 311, Kerry 227.

Senate: GOP 55, Dem 45

House: GOP 231, Dem 203, Ind 1.

Bush carries all states he won in 2000, plus the Upper Mississippi Valley (Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota), plus New Mexico, plus the 2nd CD of Maine. Kerry hangs on to the swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Oregon, and Hawaii.

42 posted on 10/28/2004 7:30:18 PM PDT by southernnorthcarolina (I support tax cuts for the rich... and I VOTE!)
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To: swilhelm73

William Kristol

Bush wins Popular Vote: 52% Bush - 47% Kerry Electoral College: 348 Bush - 190 Kerry

I AGREE!


43 posted on 10/28/2004 7:31:27 PM PDT by The Mayor (The more attracted we are to Christ, the less we'll be distracted by the world.)
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To: mak5
On 10/15, my prediction was for a 320 to 218 Bush victory in the Electoral College. I believe he will have a 5+ percentage point lead in the popular vote.
44 posted on 10/28/2004 7:32:19 PM PDT by Jeff Head (www.dragonsfuryseries.com)
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To: swilhelm73

I predict we will all be exhausted on 11/3 from predictions and from trying to interpret all of these polls!


45 posted on 10/28/2004 7:32:59 PM PDT by maxter ("We're on the right side of close" in this election. - Andy Card 10/28/04)
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To: hellinahandcart

I without a doubt will have gained 10 pounds from nerveous over-eating of M&Ms,Hostess Cupcakes and everything chocolate!


46 posted on 10/28/2004 7:33:12 PM PDT by not2worry (What goes around comes around!)
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To: swilhelm73

I'm a little surprised at how many of these guys showed Democrat success in the Senate races.


47 posted on 10/28/2004 7:37:10 PM PDT by True_wesT
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To: NJ_wants_Bush

I have posted this today.
I am in Toledo, OH. Gore won here with 58% of the vote. Bush has big support here in this Dem strong hold. Bush will get about 50% here which is big. Bush will win Ohio by +5%. I have a ticket to see Bush tomorrow; he is coming to Toledo. Kerry was here today and that says a lot to me. If Kerry has to come to a Dem strong hold 5 days out he is in real trouble. btw Kerry only had 4,000 people at a place that holds 10,000


48 posted on 10/28/2004 7:37:20 PM PDT by Total Package
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To: All

Okay I'll play too

Pop Vote Bush 50% Kerry 48% Nader 2%

EV- Bush 276 Kerry 262


49 posted on 10/28/2004 7:37:37 PM PDT by MichelleWSC
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To: Tuxedo

Definitely! Bush all the way and I predict he pulls along Coburn along with him!


50 posted on 10/28/2004 7:46:10 PM PDT by RoseD (Oklahoma)
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