Posted on 10/29/2004 11:19:38 AM PDT by Bonaventure
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - If the historical performance of the Dow Jones industrial average is an indicator, John Kerry will be the 44th President of the United States.
According to a study by the Hirsch Organization, publishers of the Stock Trader's Almanac, if the Dow loses more than 0.5 percent of its value from the end of September to Election Day, then an incumbent president is going to lose his job. The Dow has lost 0.75 percent of its value over the past month.
This predictor has been true without exception every four years, from 1904 to the present, according to Jeffrey Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader's Almanac and president of the Hirsch Organization.
On September 30th, the Dow closed at 10,080.27. It closed Thursday at 10,004.54. For President Bush to win re-election, the Dow would have to reach 10,412.92, or rise a 4.1 percent gain of 408 points, by Tuesday's close if this indicator is on the mark.
(Excerpt) Read more at money.cnn.com ...
The chicken bones in my last night's dinner say Nader... go figure.
True enough. However, there are also several other indicators that supposedly "guarantee" Bush will be re-elected, based on historical precedent.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
They're desperate!!
Well, crap.
That's it, I'm done...Bush is now OBVIOUSLY going to lose so I don't think I'll even bother to go out and vote.
NOT. Geez, get a life...
Historical doesn't cut it after 9.11. Hysterical would be more appropriate.
until 2004!
My tea leaves trump your chicken bones and say it's Mickey Mouse by an ear!
CNN says Dow says Kerry wins. CNN will probably bring in fortune 500 tellers on Monday night swearing that Kerry will win.
This kind of prediction works very well until it stops working. Don't worry about it.
Somebody's struggling with math at CNN.
0.5% on a Dow hovering around 10,000 is 50 points.
If the Dow is down 0.75% since the end of September, that's 75 points. For it to only be down 0.50% by election day means it has to go up 25 points.
The Dow was at 10,080 at the end of September. To be down 0.5% by election day it would have to be at 10,030. If it's at 10,005, I think it's quite possible that it just might struggle up by 25 points in the next two trading days.
Some Kerry supporter at CNN can't do math.
You are right, at first glance, that math doesnt seem to add up...
I guess these "experts" have also forgotten that sitting senators DO NOT GET ELECTED president.
Rarely, if ever . . .
We never had the damn market manipulated by DEM Billionaires before!
Go to NEWSMAX and do a search and you'll find out that a group of Dem Billionaires met on how to BRING DOWN Pesident Bush!
That kinda breaks the theory, doesn't it?
10,080.27 * 0.995 = 10029.86
These indicators are ridiculous, of course. But if CNN is going to use them, it should use them properly.
If the incumbent wins provided the Dow drops no more than 0.5% from September 30 to election day, and if the Dow stood at 10,080.27 on September 30, then isn't Bush in the clear as long as the Dow closes above 10,029.87 on Monday?
Woops - I read that wrong. I thought it was true with the exception of four years...
i guess we should just cancel the election on tuesday, saving the gov't lots of money and simply crown kerry as emperor
Weekly Reader BUMP
Madmae Cleo told me Pat Buchanan was going to win. I told her he wasn't running and she said that doesn't matter mon.
Dow is down because of the oil prices being manipulated by George Soros.
In 2001, based on previous results, I could inaccurately predict that the World Trade Center would still be standing in 2002.
Nice try CNN but I consulted the entrails of an ox and Bush is clearly favored to win.
Just look at Afgahnastan, what the Soviets and the British Empire couldn't do, the military under BUSH's leadership accomplished victory and there has already been a free election.
BUSH got 2 major tax cuts passed, something he was supposed to have major problems accomplishing.
Saddam is gone, without the UN and Iraq is on their way to a democratic government.
The Dow has been doing this since ENRON. SOme people should go out, look around, and find a life.
oh well. the thing about the market is that, once you figure it out, it changes.
"On September 30th, the Dow closed at 10,080.27. It closed Thursday at 10,004.54. For President Bush to win re-election, the Dow would have to reach 10,412.92, or rise a 4.1 percent gain of 408 points, by Tuesday's close if this indicator is on the mark"
This analysis is wrong...for the indicator to work the Dow would have to be at 10,029 or above for W to win on Monday Nov 1. Today the Dow is at 10,004....so approximately 20 points to go.
F-ing liberal media at it again!!!!
Hmmm. It has ALSO been true every four years, since 1904, that there was NOT a smoldering pile of rubble in downtown Manhattan.
This doesn't factor in 9-11. I believe this trumps the stock market.
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
Read the prospectus.
CNN's evidence that at least one child was left behind (probably has a nice MBA in journalism and a failing 5th grade in math)
I love when people tell W he can't do things because all of the "smart" people say it cannot be done...He turns around and does it anyway.
10,029.87 is the amount.
Thats all Pre 9-11 information they are making these assumptions with. Someone please tell CNN we're at war please.
I get the Stock Traders Almanac every yr. Its
full of good stuff. It's studies are, however,
statistical in nature. I believe Jeffrey Hirsch
is splitting hairs here. I will check my ALmanac
this weekend and post some info on Monday.
check out: www.hirschorg.com
I think Yale Hirsch, the dad, is a dem but can't
really be sure.
MV
High gas prices have worried me. Every dime increase at the pumps is going to work against the incumbent. But at least prices are not going up right now and raw crude has fallen about four dollars from its record high.
We should be grateful that there have been no dramatic increases in gasoline prices during these last few days. The Dow is hovering around the 10,000 mark and ain't too bad.
I say Bush will win with over 60 Electoral College votes to spare.
Dow is at 10,011.25 to be within 5 % of Sept. 30 it mist be at 10029 or rise 18 points before Tuesday
Well, the Boston Red Sox won the World Series. Anything can happen.
Of course, this Dow thing will be mentioned in the Media over and over and over and over.....
sKerry would have a better chance of winning
if he were yelling “SIDES” in a coin toss.
CB^0
-----------------------------------------------
The post-convention indicator was undone again in 1984, when Ronald Reagan won his second term in office. That year, the Dow lost 0.6 percent from the day after the convention until the election, when it closed at 1,229.24 on the eve of Reagan's landslide.
"But that was just a minor correction on the heels of a huge bull market. The market's former success seemed to be more of an indicator that year," said Hirsch.
There is some hope for President Bush, however.
Looking just at the last week, the market has had a bit of a run, and although he hasn't studied the Dow's performance for each week before a presidential election over the last century, Hirsch said that the Dow's 250-point rise since last Friday "is better news for Mr. Bush."
And we had two 100+ point gain trading days this week. It's easily do-able.
Well, you are the Numbers Guy.:)
Historical trends say the the party of the incumbent president usually loses seats in Congress. Didn't happen in 2002.
Like you say, Sept 11 changed everything.
I guess Soros sold all his stock and brought foreign currency
I think someone has already done the star charts and Kerry won.
Pssst...CNN thinks they are onto something. Try not to confuse them with facts.
Since Money magazine is in on this "poll analysis" with them, I don't think I will subscribe.
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