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POLLS after OBL TAPE??? (VANITY)
10/29/04 | heff

Posted on 10/29/2004 8:57:37 PM PDT by Heff

Has there been any polling done to measure the impact the OBL tape is having on the voters?


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: obltape; poll
NOTE TO THE VANITY POLICE: I know, I already did a search but didn't find anything...you can arrest me on 11/3.
1 posted on 10/29/2004 8:57:38 PM PDT by Heff
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To: Heff

Not yet. I'm predicting a 3-4 point bump. All the undecideds will break Bush, IMO.


2 posted on 10/29/2004 8:59:26 PM PDT by West Coast Conservative
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To: Heff

No.

I'm predicting no bump. If there is an effect, it usually takes time to show up in polls.


3 posted on 10/29/2004 9:00:05 PM PDT by ambrose (A vote for Kerry is a vote for bin Laden)
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To: West Coast Conservative

I predict some economy moms and dads will become security mom and dads and want the stronger guy in the office.


4 posted on 10/29/2004 9:00:16 PM PDT by Blogger (http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/1249663/posts)
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To: Heff

I mean no IMMEDIATE bump... in tomorrow's tracking results...


5 posted on 10/29/2004 9:00:26 PM PDT by ambrose (A vote for Kerry is a vote for bin Laden)
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To: Heff

6 posted on 10/29/2004 9:01:11 PM PDT by Dallas59 ("A weak peace is worse than war" - Tacitcus)
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To: Heff

> ... polling done to measure the impact the OBL tape is having ...

So far that's been reported here are the electronic markets:

Bush is back up on IEM!! Back to +10 lead!
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1262278/posts


7 posted on 10/29/2004 9:01:13 PM PDT by Boundless (bin Laden is running an IQ test next Tuesday. Score high on it.)
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To: Heff

No major polls will reflect the impact of the tape until election day. You can always look at tracking polls, but in my opinion tracking polls are unreliable for the short amount of time we are looking at.


8 posted on 10/29/2004 9:01:27 PM PDT by KoRn
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To: Dallas59

Not sure what that means????


9 posted on 10/29/2004 9:02:35 PM PDT by Heff ("Liberty is not America's gift to the world, it's the Almighty's gift to humanity" GW Bush 4/12/04)
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To: Heff
No one wants to get blowed up. UBL endorsing Kerry is not good for Kerry. Tape reminds everyone the wolves are still out there -- lurking.

Plus 2-5 points for Bush by Monday.
10 posted on 10/29/2004 9:02:53 PM PDT by snooker (Hate is not a plan for America)
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To: KoRn

There will be more to this story within the next couple of days. We will have to wait and see how things develop.


11 posted on 10/29/2004 9:04:05 PM PDT by ARCADIA (Abuse of power comes as no surprise)
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To: KoRn; ambrose

I was looking more along the lines that some of the pollsters might jump out and go after a group leaners or undecides (if there is just a thing at this date) and focus on this new tape and if its having an impact...or even those that aren't planning to vote...its probably a larger group to go after than the undecided.


12 posted on 10/29/2004 9:05:50 PM PDT by Heff ("Liberty is not America's gift to the world, it's the Almighty's gift to humanity" GW Bush 4/12/04)
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To: Heff

This is good for 1-1.5 points, IMO.


13 posted on 10/29/2004 9:09:27 PM PDT by Petronski (A Monday morning quarterback has never led any team to victory.)
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To: snooker

Your lips to God's ear...that tape really rattled me today. Bothered me no end...you have to believe that OBL would want to hurt Bush's chances, not help, so was this a miscalculation on his part?

Lou Dobbs (just channel surfing and caught this) said tonight that the video reminded him of a previos OBL tape where he tells Europe that he doesn't want war with them...don't fight me and I won't fight you (paraphrasing of course).

A friend of mine said that he believes that OBL wants Bush to win...because whatever BIG plans they (OBL and Co.) have in mind, they want it on Bush's watch.


14 posted on 10/29/2004 9:13:11 PM PDT by Heff ("Liberty is not America's gift to the world, it's the Almighty's gift to humanity" GW Bush 4/12/04)
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To: All

Don't forget the tracking polls Monday will be almost totally made up of the weekend and could easily show Kerry "ahead" simply because of how well he almost always does on the weekends.


15 posted on 10/29/2004 9:15:50 PM PDT by COEXERJ145 (The price of freedom is eternal vigilance)
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To: Heff

xactly----depends on what your definition of 'polling' is.


16 posted on 10/29/2004 9:16:45 PM PDT by metalcor
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To: Heff

The one thing that I find really encouraging from this story is the incredible contrast from what Americans do when confronted by some slimy creep like USB and what socialists like Spain and France do. We go for the guy with grit, they cave in and go for the pansy.
Kerry should run for office in France, it would look so good on him...


17 posted on 10/29/2004 9:18:21 PM PDT by USTex
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To: Heff
so was this a miscalculation on his part?

Yes, culture problem. They scared Spain, thought they could scare US. UBL doesn't understand the US. Probably still is sitting in his cave trying to figure out why the Taliban have gone missing when Clinton never did anything.

A friend of mine said that he believes that OBL wants Bush to win...because whatever BIG plans they (OBL and Co.) have in mind, they want it on Bush's watch.

I have heard several people posit this twisted logic. Sure UBL wants Bush to win, so he can kill off the remaining 25% of UBL's merry band. Sure he does.

18 posted on 10/29/2004 9:19:04 PM PDT by snooker (Hate is not a plan for America)
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To: Heff
was this a miscalculation on his part?

We can't expect psychopaths to think clearly 100% of the time.

19 posted on 10/29/2004 9:33:48 PM PDT by Rocko (The BoSox win, Senator Botox® loses.)
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To: ambrose

It could be a break for Kerry. The average numbskull American may interpret this as afailure of Bush.
Kerry has been keeping pace if not tightening it.


20 posted on 10/29/2004 9:49:36 PM PDT by ChiMark
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To: Heff
I predict the tracking polls will NOT dip for Bush over the weekend. They usually do.
21 posted on 10/29/2004 9:50:47 PM PDT by AmishDude (It's ZOTerrific.)
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To: ambrose

I predict we'll see a bump in the only poll that really counts...

the one on Tuesday.


22 posted on 10/29/2004 9:52:00 PM PDT by PowerPro (REMEMBER: Every State's a Swing State Until the Votes are Counted ... Go VOTE!)
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To: snooker

Basically, UBL wanted to pull a Spain. This tape is an indication that they cannot pull off a major terrorist attack before Nov. 2. The next best thing is to attack with words. He really doesn't understand the American psyche anyway.


23 posted on 10/29/2004 9:52:33 PM PDT by AmishDude (It's ZOTerrific.)
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To: PowerPro

I agree with you I think this will affect people as they are standing in line and I think more people will break for Bush and that won't be noticable in polls.


24 posted on 10/29/2004 9:55:27 PM PDT by Moconservative
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To: Heff

I have been buried at work today, and just back from the best High School football game I've seen in years (with a potential NFL quarterback throwing 60 yard Hail Marys all night). OK, so what did OBL say - Reader's Digest version.


25 posted on 10/29/2004 9:58:18 PM PDT by 11th_VA (VRWC Local 1077)
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To: Heff

I don't want polls about this. There shouldn't be. We should not encourage the terrorists by asking people if they thought this act of terrorist intimidation has helped their cause. The default answer should be "hell no" without having to ask anyone.


26 posted on 10/29/2004 10:03:41 PM PDT by Advil
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To: Heff

Could it be that the threat itself is the terror,and not actually the act of mindless violence, something to think about,huh?


27 posted on 10/29/2004 10:05:19 PM PDT by diss-a-lib (God is a comedian, with a audience that refuses to laugh)
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To: AmishDude

It could also be atrial balloon. Just to see which way the electorate leans to see what a real attack would do.

More likely if he is planning an attack, it will be shortly after to bolster the foaming-at-the-mouth Bush-haters into a impeach frenzy that will distract Bush and his admin for a few months.


28 posted on 10/29/2004 10:20:47 PM PDT by Only1choice____Freedom ("Anyone who calls Moore a Dumb $#$@$ is okay with me." -areafiftyone)
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To: Heff

I think you're giving OBL too much credit. Him and his gang are very good at mis-reading American culture...


29 posted on 10/29/2004 10:25:20 PM PDT by Hazzardgate
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To: Only1choice____Freedom

I really don't think UBL understands American politics.


30 posted on 10/29/2004 10:48:28 PM PDT by AmishDude (It's ZOTerrific.)
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To: AmishDude
I really don't think UBL understands American politics.

That's more likely the case but hey, anybody can play the "Guess the Bin Laden" game, right?

31 posted on 10/29/2004 10:53:55 PM PDT by Only1choice____Freedom ("Anyone who calls Moore a Dumb $#$@$ is okay with me." -areafiftyone)
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To: Only1choice____Freedom

Assuming what we saw wasn't an anamatronic puppet.


32 posted on 10/29/2004 10:55:54 PM PDT by AmishDude (It's ZOTerrific.)
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To: Heff
I haven't seen any polling, and would be suspicious of any that comes out this soon.

Here's my prediction: either there will be no effect (because terrorism has been such a central issue) or it wil swing most of the undecideds to Bush, but we probably won't see the bump until Election Night.

Welcome to FR.

33 posted on 10/30/2004 1:28:58 AM PDT by Mr. Silverback (Three days left to be a Bush goon! Freepmail me to get on your state's Kerrytrack list today!)
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To: Mr. Silverback

According to Fox,Bush as actually LOST three points in support since the infamous tape,down to 47%.Kerry stayed static with 45%.
Very strange.


34 posted on 10/30/2004 2:22:48 PM PDT by Riverman94610
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To: Riverman94610

I wouldn't worry too hard about that. Weekend polling always shifts to the left.


35 posted on 10/30/2004 3:24:36 PM PDT by Mr. Silverback (Three days left to be a Bush goon! Freepmail me to get on your state's Kerrytrack list today!)
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To: Heff
you have to believe that OBL would want to hurt Bush's chances, not help, so was this a miscalculation on his part?

Well, this is a guy who thought that the 9/11 attacks would lead to us running out of the middle east the way we ran out of Somalia.

A friend of mine said that he believes that OBL wants Bush to win...because whatever BIG plans they (OBL and Co.) have in mind, they want it on Bush's watch.

Your friend is wrong. It's not that Osama wants Kerry (not even Kerry is that bad) but that the terrorist cause would be strengthened if they can make it lok like they ran a U.S. President out of office the way they got rid of the Spanish PM.

36 posted on 10/30/2004 3:32:53 PM PDT by Mr. Silverback (Three days left to be a Bush goon! Freepmail me to get on your state's Kerrytrack list today!)
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To: USTex
Kerry should run for office in France, it would look so good on him...

And I'll say this: Even Kerry is probably a better man than Chirac.

37 posted on 10/30/2004 3:34:56 PM PDT by Mr. Silverback (Three days left to be a Bush goon! Freepmail me to get on your state's Kerrytrack list today!)
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To: snooker; Heff
Heff, and additional comment here, bank-shotting off what snooker wrote:

Sure UBL wants Bush to win, so he can kill off the remaining 25% of UBL's merry band. Sure he does.

The reason the North Vietnamese were using the VVAW and John Kerry in 1970-73 was because they needed Nixon to at least lighten up on them so they could recover from their combat losses. This may be UBL's play to get a guy in there who's less serious, and maybe be able to rebuild the organization. Al-Qaeda is still terribly dangerous, but it's in awful shape compared to 9/03.

38 posted on 10/30/2004 3:38:28 PM PDT by Mr. Silverback (Three days left to be a Bush goon! Freepmail me to get on your state's Kerrytrack list today!)
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To: Heff

The polls are bogus, do not believe them they are all over the place. Get out and vote, kick a UN watcher in the groin while you are at it ....


39 posted on 10/30/2004 3:44:55 PM PDT by John Lenin
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To: ChiMark
The average numbskull American may interpret this as a failure of Bush.

Then why didn't they interpret it as a failure every time Kerry (and ten million other Democrats) said "Bush still hasn't gotten Bin Laden" into every available microphone?

No, I think anyone who believes Bush is a failure because we haven't hit every cave in the Middle East is already in the Kerry column. Every time there's a terror threat Bush gets a few points, and I think that will happen here, but it won't show up until Tuesday night.

40 posted on 10/30/2004 3:45:41 PM PDT by Mr. Silverback (Three days left to be a Bush goon! Freepmail me to get on your state's Kerrytrack list today!)
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To: 11th_VA

Basically UBL endorsed Kerry without endorsing Kerry. He reviewed all the suposed reasons that 9/11 was justified, then he went into this section where he criticizes Bush for killing Muslims and talks about how American security is not in Bush's hands or even Al-Qaida's hands, it's in the hands of the American people. He finished that section with, "If a country does not care about its own security, we will not care about their security." The only reason to say such a thing, in such a way, four days before our election is to tell the electorate, "Dump the cowboy and you'll be safer."


41 posted on 10/30/2004 3:54:04 PM PDT by Mr. Silverback (Three days left to be a Bush goon! Freepmail me to get on your state's Kerrytrack list today!)
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To: Moconservative

Mike Barnacle (lib that he is) hit the nail on the head yesterday. He said [paraphrased]:

"The issue is much more basic than 'Who will keep us safer?' When people go into the voting booth they will cast their ballot for 'Who will kill them quicker?' And that person will be George Bush."


42 posted on 10/30/2004 3:54:30 PM PDT by Protect the Bill of Rights (Truth is not Partisan)
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To: Heff

Worst case is that the OBL stopped whatever momentum skerry had on the phony ammo story dead in its tracks.


43 posted on 10/30/2004 3:57:00 PM PDT by Semper Paratus (Michael)
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To: Mr. Silverback
You got it. If you read between the lines of the tape -- UBL wanted to send the bomb but all he had was the silly tape. Bush's fault

Elect Kerry so UBL can rebuild his forces to strike another day.

44 posted on 10/30/2004 5:54:59 PM PDT by snooker (Hate is not a plan for America)
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