My range in EVs has consistently been Bush with about 325 EVs, give or take a 25. Over the course of the week, I was leaning towards the lower number - a nice win with about 300 EVs.
Today I feel a bit better about it but not as ambitious as you are - I just reran the numbers based on polls and 'gut' and I have Bush winning 310 to Kerry's 228.
Lets just win this thing comfortably!
I' mjust going to repeat my gut feeling real quick. I think there are heckuva lot of dems out there who would never tell a pollster that they were going to vote Bush but will do it in the end because they realize Kerry would be such a disaster. Then they will never admit they DID vote for Bush -- it will be like in 1998 when you could never find anyone who would admit they voted for Clinton.
Not that that's going to make everything all rosy -- many of these people will still oppose the President's policies.