"Missed it by THAT much"
Posted on 10/30/2004 4:21:31 AM PDT by mmsturm
Sat Oct 30, 2004 07:02 AM ET WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democratic Sen. John Kerry moved into a one-point lead over President Bush three days before the presidential election, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Saturday.
Kerry led Bush 47-46 percent, well within the margin of error, in the latest three-day national tracking poll. Bush and Kerry were tied at 47 percent on Friday.
*I sure do dis-trust this guys polling.*
"Missed it by THAT much"
He's fibbing big time...
We're DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMED!!!!!!
After the OBL tape, throw these polls out the window.
No surprise here. Wonder what UBL tape will do to tracking poll numbers?
When is Gallup out with their latest poll?
What are these guys smoking?
OBL: "Vote for Kerry."
John Kerry: "I'm John Kerry and I approve this message."
Zogby is a pile of $**t!!! Folks, pay attention to the Battleground, Times and Gallup polls from here on out. Zogby has an agenda to get sKerry elected.
BIN LADEN TAPE WORKED, WE ARE FINISHED!!! KERRY WINS!!! HAW HAW HAW... NOT!!!!
Just grin and take it. The annoyance will be gone wednesday next, to be replaced with wailing and gnashing of both the pollsters and the old medias teeth.
May there be a shortage of pain medication available for them, and an over supply of sleeping pills next to their bedstands, ;)
Oh, now...you know he can't just come right out and *say* that.
It has be more "nuanced"....:)
This is Zogby simply doing the "how do I make Kerry look good and me not look bad by having Kerry up but well within the margin of error". That's what Kerry's millions is buying from Zogby.
Yes, he actually said it, before didn't said it.
Zogby's polling is like that 8-ball predictor. Ask a question, turn it over and if you don't like the answer do it again.
Zogby is a despicable DNC insider. He deserves a very hot afterlife.
Heh heh heh....;)
Shaping his own polls to try to cover his own predictions. Todays other polls will only reaffirm what yesterday told us. Bush is up to stay.
Let the dummy make it appear the Prez is down. I think the base was pretty well rallied yesterday along with quite a few undecideds. No worries.
*I sure do dis-trust this guys polling.*
You're not alone. Experts in the bussiness have questioned Zogby's methodology. shrug.
There's two reasons for why this is the way it is.
1) Polling was completed right after or around the time the tape came out. This is pre-Osama polling.
2) Zogby knows that Bush will win now, and he's got three days to show a trend. Sunday will show Bush 49 to 47, Monday Bush 50 to 46, and then on Tuesday he'll keep it at 50 to 46.
Washington Post should show 51 to 46 today, and 52 to 46 on Sunday and it will stay that way Monday.
Gallup will come out on Monday and will show Bush up at least four points, perhaps as much as eight points.
Expect a Newsweek poll to come out today showing Bush behind Kerry. It's pre-Osama and that will be their attempt to show a "Kerry comeback" that they had hoped for but now realize isn't going to happen.
There should be a Time poll out too this weekend, and it could go either way.
Even in this tainted poll, Bush could still have a lead within the margin of error. That shows you what Kerry is facing come tuesday.
Good stuff, thanks.
PS: Both are Arabs--enough said!!!
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Final National Presidential Poll Results, 1936-2000 National Council on Public Polls - Error Measure
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Great analysis. Thanks.
Question:
Is this inside info or educated speculation?
However, we must get out and vote!
John Zogby and his brother James are Arab scum that want to see the USA defeated by bin Laden and company, and he is doing the same thing he tried in 2002, when he looked like the fool he is with his off the wall, false polling. Zogby should stick to being a "fair" pollster, rather then being a cheerleader for Usama bin Laden's chosen candidate for POTUS, John "Traitor/Treason" Kerry. No matter what Zogby says, John Kerry is going down big time on election day and so is the entire "traitor" Democrat Party. Mr Zogby, get this: we don't give hoot what your lying poll says!!! And get this: we will be getting out every vote for GW Bush that we humanly can!!!
It's educated speculation. Just based on trends and what I know about how polling is conducted.
Zogby has two days of reporting to shift his view. He doesn't give up anything by being an outlier poll three days out. He gains favor with the Dems and gets plenty of attention. He enjoys the spotlight.
After the election the only polls reported and discussed is the one on the Monday before voting day.
Explain, is this real or just Zogby's way of presentation to look good - and to continue getting paid for his "factored polling".
Man, hope your analysis are right! However, it seems the unknown factor is the impact of new voters - and apparently the Democrats have larger numbers.
We are also dealing with a record number of new registrations, demographic changes, voter fraud, intense passions on both sides, low % of undecideds, outside influences (UBL et al), etc.
I am not a pollster, these are assumptions I arrived at by reading hither and thither during this crazy election cycle. I think a good article on the 'Net that puts pollsters in perspective is offered by JayCost:
With all due respect, I'm confident that's a given. At least in these poll threads. Go to an immigration thread, those guys are shut-ins.
If bin Laden does secretly want Bush to win, I'm afraid he's making a grave miscalculation.
In a second-term, without worrying about re-election.. Bush is going to raise some hell everywhere these cockroaches hide.
If bin Laden is hoping Bush spends another 4 years of dancing around him, conducting a PC War, he's badly mistaken.
I bet Kerry's aides crapped their pants in disbelief at the timing on this new Bin Laden tape. Too funny.
Thanks for the reference to JayCost, it was very informative. Zogby is losing all creditability.
OK, I'll need someone to explain to me again why not to worry. I thought our line was that Zogby went nuts up until the last few days before the election, then he got reliable. This just should not be.
Dan
Pleased with yourself?
I think the general rule is that the reliability of the pollster is a direct correlation to the favorability of the latest results. That works for both sides.
Polls are worthless now. It's all about turnout at this point since it's been real close. The bottom line is: Who's base turns out to vote. Hopefully we have a lot of broken glass republicans this election. Even Dole could have beat Clinton if all registered republicans would have voted instead of sitting at home. Get everyone you know to a poll booth and vote.
Indeed. I don't consider Zogby reliable, but some people go overboard with their criticism
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