Do I need to spell it out for you?
Posted on 10/30/2004 4:21:31 AM PDT by mmsturm
We are also dealing with a record number of new registrations, demographic changes, voter fraud, intense passions on both sides, low % of undecideds, outside influences (UBL et al), etc.
I am not a pollster, these are assumptions I arrived at by reading hither and thither during this crazy election cycle. I think a good article on the 'Net that puts pollsters in perspective is offered by JayCost:
With all due respect, I'm confident that's a given. At least in these poll threads. Go to an immigration thread, those guys are shut-ins.
If bin Laden does secretly want Bush to win, I'm afraid he's making a grave miscalculation.
In a second-term, without worrying about re-election.. Bush is going to raise some hell everywhere these cockroaches hide.
If bin Laden is hoping Bush spends another 4 years of dancing around him, conducting a PC War, he's badly mistaken.
I bet Kerry's aides crapped their pants in disbelief at the timing on this new Bin Laden tape. Too funny.
Thanks for the reference to JayCost, it was very informative. Zogby is losing all creditability.
OK, I'll need someone to explain to me again why not to worry. I thought our line was that Zogby went nuts up until the last few days before the election, then he got reliable. This just should not be.
Dan
Pleased with yourself?
I think the general rule is that the reliability of the pollster is a direct correlation to the favorability of the latest results. That works for both sides.
Polls are worthless now. It's all about turnout at this point since it's been real close. The bottom line is: Who's base turns out to vote. Hopefully we have a lot of broken glass republicans this election. Even Dole could have beat Clinton if all registered republicans would have voted instead of sitting at home. Get everyone you know to a poll booth and vote.
Indeed. I don't consider Zogby reliable, but some people go overboard with their criticism
That number, folks, is '1'.
Do I need to spell it out for you?
As far as I know, Kerry's ceiling is about 47%. Bush has had much higher numbers in many polls. Bush will win, it's just a matter of how big it will be.
Not getting over-confident, don't worry. In fact I just volunteered yesterday to do a phone bank and deliver literature to Republican households here in Pennsylvania. It's a great feeling to know that I'm doing my small part to help.
This is not Breaking News
How is the response so far. I am planning to do that here in Central Florida tomorrow!
Ping for poll accuracy roundup. nice find. thanks
I start this morning at 10, so I'll let you know. I'm calling Catholic voters to remind them that Bush is the candidate that shares their values. I'm nervous about it since I get tangled up when I speak (hey, just like the Pres!), but hopefully it'll go well.
The last Harris comes out on Monday.
Osama came out of hiding in the nick of time.
The Harris Poll® #83, October 27, 2004
Bush and Kerry Neck and Neck, According to Latest Harris Poll
The latest Harris Poll finds that the presidential election is now almost as close as it could possibly be, with Senator John Kerry and President George W. Bush virtually neck and neck (48% to 47%). This is better news for Senator Kerry than the previous poll which showed President Bush ahead of Senator Kerry.
(See Harris Poll #78, October 20 http://www.harrisinteractive.com/harris_poll/index.asp?PID=507).
Today’s results are based on a nationwide Harris Poll of 2,493 likely voters conducted online by Harris Interactive® between October 21 and 25, 2004.
In the last poll we reported that the size of President Bush's lead varied substantially (from 2 to 8 percentage points) depending on which definition of likely voters we used. In this poll we find no such difference. Senator Kerry holds a one point lead using each of our possible definitions.
Of course, all polls are subject to sampling and other possible sources of error, but this new Harris Poll appears to confirm the findings of some other polls that President Bush’s modest lead last week has greatly narrowed or has disappeared. This survey also finds very little difference between the numbers for the popular vote as a whole and in seventeen swing states. In both cases the election is much too close to call.
During the 2000 elections, both Harris Interactive’s online and telephone polls were extremely accurate. (http://www.ncpp.org/poll_perform.htm).
... "Zogby has an agenda" ...
I agree.
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