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Bush Lead Widens Among Likely Voters -- Newsweek [Large lead published by Newsweek and Reuters?]
Reuters ^ | 30OCT04 | Reuters

Posted on 10/30/2004 2:33:33 PM PDT by familyop

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Bush's lead over Democratic challenger Sen. John Kerry has widened to 6 percentage points among likely voters, according to a Newsweek magazine poll released on Saturday.

The poll showed Bush leading Kerry by 50 percent to 44 percent, and independent candidate Ralph Nader drawing 1 percent support.

That compared with a Bush lead last week over Kerry of 48 percent to 46 percent among likely voters.

The Newsweek surveys had a margin of error of 4 points, meaning the two candidates remained in a statistical dead heat days before Tuesday's election.

This week's poll surveyed 1,005 registered voters from Wednesday through Friday, and the final night's polling came after the broadcast of a new videotape in which al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden raised the prospect of fresh attacks against the United States.

The war against global terrorism has been a major issue in the campaign, and the Newsweek poll said voters trusted Bush over Kerry by 56 percent to 37 percent to tackle terrorism.

Among registered voters, Bush moved into a lead over Kerry of 48 percent to 44 percent in this week's poll, compared with a tie at 46 percent last week. The new poll also showed a strong majority expected major disputes over the voting in Tuesday's election, and it said 54 percent thought the winner would eventually be determined by the courts. A U.S. Supreme Court decision in 2000 handed the election to Bush after a long recount dispute in Florida.


TOPICS: Extended News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: bush; go; gop; gwb2004; kewl; newsweek; poll; polls; president; win
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...didn't see it on the front page, though.
1 posted on 10/30/2004 2:33:33 PM PDT by familyop
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To: All

I looked, and the Reuters front page is only showing the Zogby report with Kerry in the lead.

...dirty, rotten media.


2 posted on 10/30/2004 2:35:12 PM PDT by familyop (Receive, adhere, listen, dissolve, entice and launch.)
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To: familyop


Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 243 Bush 280
... and that doesn't include the "weaks" such as Fl etc IMHO


3 posted on 10/30/2004 2:36:00 PM PDT by Henchman (Who gave KERRY entré to the VC @ Paris? T.Kennedy? McGovern? ...some"high" low D'rat probably)
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To: familyop

Just saw on FoxNews Website, Bush with Coach Tice of the Minnesota Vikings giving him a jersey. Is Tice saying he supports the Big W??


4 posted on 10/30/2004 2:36:19 PM PDT by rineaux (hardcore for W04)
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To: familyop
Forget the polls. The Dims are telling their people "Sure the polls are close but we have the better get out the vote game" It's all about Turnout. If we coast we are toast. GET EVERY Republican to the polls!
5 posted on 10/30/2004 2:36:50 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (Vote Bush 2004-We cannot survive a 9-10 President in a 9-11 World)
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To: familyop
"President Bush's lead over Democratic challenger Sen. John Kerry has widened to 6 percentage points among likely voters, according to a Newsweek magazine poll released on Saturday."

I think we're being set up, and Bush's lead is smaller than this. Also, polls won't take into account the "fraud bump" that Kerry will receive. It could make a difference in many close races.

6 posted on 10/30/2004 2:38:22 PM PDT by Batrachian
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To: familyop

Any time MSM gives GWB any kind of bump, look for alternative motive.


7 posted on 10/30/2004 2:38:47 PM PDT by stopillegalimmigration
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To: familyop

Fox shows Bush losing support. The GOP is bungling the OBL tape. Bush has said nothing to confront Al Queda after the tape, has left that to Kerry. This has allowed the liberal spin to play out.


8 posted on 10/30/2004 2:39:12 PM PDT by Williams
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To: Williams

...interesting. Bloomberg is running a column saying that the Bin Laden tape is helping the Bush Campaign! We're not allowed to post Bloomberg stuff, so I didn't post it.


9 posted on 10/30/2004 2:41:02 PM PDT by familyop (Receive, adhere, listen, dissolve, entice and launch.)
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To: Williams

Fox has Bush up by 50% to 45%


10 posted on 10/30/2004 2:41:10 PM PDT by Brimack34
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To: familyop

This is a Newsweek Poll only. Reuters news service is just reporting the story. The Reuters poll is done by Zogby which is a daily tracking poll. The Newsweek story is a good one that says trend to Bush. Zoby has Bush up by one and so does Washington Post/ABC but it is not clear how much of that polling was done last night after Osama tape played. Newsweek was done over Oct. 26 to last night Oct. 29.


11 posted on 10/30/2004 2:41:23 PM PDT by GoldwaterBooster (Veteran of the Cow Palace in 1964)
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To: familyop
I'm delighted to see any poll that puts Bush ahead. From what Frank Luntz said last night on MSNBC, don't pay any attention to 3 or less points in poll movements. Polls are unreliable at this point, but I think that you can see a trend. It's clear that Bush has maintained about a 3 pt lead over Kerry in the national polls.
12 posted on 10/30/2004 2:42:07 PM PDT by Nosterrex
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To: familyop

Early morning here in Australia, in pyjamas having coffee, yours is the first post I read - gotta tell you - the same was reported here on the late news last night.
I was not surprised. Same happened here. Howard won re-election by a bigger margin than the previous. Why? You know the answer. SECURITY!


13 posted on 10/30/2004 2:42:40 PM PDT by Fred Nerks (Understand Evil: Read THE LIFE OF MUHAMMAD free pdf. See FRED NERKS for link)
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To: familyop

It is going to kill me to be away from Freerepublic for three days, but I am helping out form 9am to 8pm tomorrow, Monday, and Election day in Florida. We win Florida we will be in good shape.


14 posted on 10/30/2004 2:42:40 PM PDT by GoMonster (best homepage)
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To: familyop

The only poll that matters is the one on November 2nd.

Newsweek could be lying.


15 posted on 10/30/2004 2:43:03 PM PDT by KStorm
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To: Williams

Trust W! His timing & tactics {as well as those of his campaign team} are impeacable. Remember Rathergate? They know best how to handle these matters.


16 posted on 10/30/2004 2:44:24 PM PDT by Cedric
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To: GoMonster

Where are you volunteering in FLorida. I am planning to do the same tomorrow afternoon. I got the info from someone who was doing the GOTV walk this morning.


17 posted on 10/30/2004 2:45:26 PM PDT by bushsupporter30
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To: familyop
A U.S. Supreme Court decision in 2000 handed the election to Bush

They just couldn't let pass by an opportunity to throw in a barb.

18 posted on 10/30/2004 2:45:58 PM PDT by shezza (Watch "Stolen Honor" -- and then wonder how even one American could ever vote for JF'nK)
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To: Fred Nerks

The Aussie vote was very encouraging. Good job!


19 posted on 10/30/2004 2:50:11 PM PDT by cardinal4 (John Kerry- "A Hamster Tale..")
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To: shezza

Yes. And their bitterness makes their poll report that the President is ahead all that much more enjoyable! LOL!

IMO, they were at least somewhat honest on that report out of fear that they'll get caught if they skew it much. Now, they're dreading the publishing of it.

Democrats: consider your mental health. Take a rest for a few days!


20 posted on 10/30/2004 2:50:59 PM PDT by familyop (Receive, adhere, listen, dissolve, entice and launch.)
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To: Brimack34

Fox posted new poll at 2 P.M. Bush 47 Kerry 45.


21 posted on 10/30/2004 2:52:16 PM PDT by upcountry miss
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To: Fred Nerks
Early morning here in Australia, in pyjamas having coffee, yours is the first post I read - gotta tell you - the same was reported here on the late news last night. I was not surprised. Same happened here. Howard won re-election by a bigger margin than the previous. Why? You know the answer. SECURITY!

That is a very good point. Nervous nellies like me need to read encouraging reminders like this. I am cautiously optimistic that a majority of voters will also think security as they're pulling that lever and that Bush will exceed expectations.

22 posted on 10/30/2004 2:53:14 PM PDT by NYS_Eric
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To: Nosterrex

Yes, the three points is within a "margin of error." But when you get a two or three point margin in the large majority of polls, over a period of time, all in the same direction, you are justified in increasing the confidence you place in the result.


23 posted on 10/30/2004 2:54:03 PM PDT by hinckley buzzard
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To: JazzX

Yes, and the November 2nd vote will give us the same great President for the next four years!

And Newsweek is notoriously Democrat and anti-conservative. ...sweet!


24 posted on 10/30/2004 2:54:24 PM PDT by familyop (Receive, adhere, listen, dissolve, entice and launch.)
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To: rineaux

Just got back from the rally in Minneapolis. Yep, Coach Tice was there to introduce the President - giving him a MN Vikings jersey with #1 on the front.

Tice hammered on the main reason he is supporting Bush - because every day he wakes up feeling safe because of Bush and wants his family to remain safe. It was powerful.

Tice and the Vikings establishment took holy hell from the dems in the area once Tice was announced as the person introducing the President. My respect for that man went up again (and I'm a closet Bears fan stuck here in Minnesota :)

Again I am struck with a sense of awe that Minnesota is truly a battleground state. The President makes a major campaign stop here 72 hours before the election. Hubert Humphry is spinning in his grave today.

I'm cautiously optimistic that MN will be Bush country on Tuesday!


25 posted on 10/30/2004 2:55:18 PM PDT by Dan C
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To: Williams
Fox shows Bush losing support. The GOP is bungling the OBL tape. Bush has said nothing to confront Al Queda after the tape, has left that to Kerry. This has allowed the liberal spin to play out.

I took notice that in kerry's statement yesterday he used Bush's statement "what ever it takes" as if it was his own. Trying to look really tough.

26 posted on 10/30/2004 2:56:19 PM PDT by Irish Eyes
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To: JazzX

...especially women in favor of President Bush, BTW. They don't want to start seeing people's heads lying around in our own neighborhoods from terrorist attacks/abductions, so more of them are voting Bush! And, of course, feminism is dead and doesn't know it, yet.


27 posted on 10/30/2004 2:56:58 PM PDT by familyop (Receive, adhere, listen, dissolve, entice and launch.)
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To: Henchman

I sure don't see any 280 without FL! Is that what your saying?


28 posted on 10/30/2004 3:02:32 PM PDT by San Jacinto
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To: Dan C

I am truly excited for you guys. The Vikings beat my Saints two weeks ago, but after today, who cares.
I hope this helps W with all the fans that the Vikings have. Really need those guys with union ties to sever those ties when it comes to voting.
Go Get It Done.


29 posted on 10/30/2004 3:02:39 PM PDT by rineaux (hardcore for W04)
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To: Williams
Fox shows Bush losing support. The GOP is bungling the OBL tape. Bush has said nothing to confront Al Queda after the tape, has left that to Kerry. This has allowed the liberal spin to play out.

Yes, the liberal talking points seem to be that Bush is silent about the Osama tape because it shows he is a failure in the terror war.

30 posted on 10/30/2004 3:08:03 PM PDT by Jorge
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To: GoMonster
We need Florida and Ohio...Kerry winning very very difficult without Ohio!!!!!
31 posted on 10/30/2004 3:09:24 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach (A Proud member of Free Republic ~~The New Face of the Fourth Estate since 1996.)
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To: Fred Nerks

Were the polls neck and neck right up to election day?


32 posted on 10/30/2004 3:12:02 PM PDT by ananda
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To: Dan C
It would really be BIG if Bush could take Minnesota!!!

Everyone needs to look at this State by State. Here is a great tool:

I'm convinced that Ohio is now the key state for Bush, if he wins it, Kerry cannot win. Bush can win though without Ohio. Used the LA Times interactive tool:


33 posted on 10/30/2004 3:13:09 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach (A Proud member of Free Republic ~~The New Face of the Fourth Estate since 1996.)
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To: rineaux

From the Horserace Blog (jaycost.blogspot.com):

"Note also the weekend-before-the-election trip to MN. That state is gonna be the big surprise of 11-2, I think."

From his blog to God's ears.


34 posted on 10/30/2004 3:14:38 PM PDT by Dan C
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To: Williams
I know that the best spokesman for Bush is Bush himself, but I have to tell you that I was at the Bush/Cheney Rally in Green Bay today, and every single speaker talked about Bin Laden, it was not ignored!
35 posted on 10/30/2004 3:18:18 PM PDT by codercpc
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To: Dan C

talked to a business partner's son and law and the bassterd, who lives in Oakdale is voting for kerry. I could not believe he was doing that to me. Is vote will be stamped out though by a few guys from Jordan area.
I was in St Paul in 02 when they elected Coleman.
Again, I look forward to the big win.


36 posted on 10/30/2004 3:18:40 PM PDT by rineaux (hardcore for W04)
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To: NYS_Eric

You're welcome! I know how it feels. What was really strange in Oz, was that security as a subject was not overly mentioned in the campaign. The prime question was connected with leaving our (900 or so) troops in Iraq. The opposition promised to bring them home by Christmas. Howard said they would stay until the 'job was done' - yet everyone I spoke to personally and every editorial I read was connected with Security. I was telephone polled three times. Security was the first question asked. (Whom do you trust?) I believe the results of your election will be similar. Landslide coming up.


37 posted on 10/30/2004 3:19:19 PM PDT by Fred Nerks (Understand Evil: Read THE LIFE OF MUHAMMAD free pdf. See FRED NERKS for link)
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To: familyop
it said 54 percent thought the winner would eventually be determined by the courts.

Kerry can declare himself POTUS all he wants, but he's going to need a real army, not a bunch of NYU lawyers and hippie commie scumbags, to take power.

38 posted on 10/30/2004 3:21:41 PM PDT by Rome2000 (The ENEMY for Kerry!!!)
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To: Irish Eyes

I tried to post a comment that Bush needs to get out in front on the OBL tape and answer the MSM spin directly. I was accused of being a troll and my post eventually got pulled for the reason "Get A Grip" I guess FR is not a place to discuss Bush's campaign strategy or to debate the best ways to win. I hope Bush is leading by 15 points among early voters and I hope he landslides on Nov. 2 but Republican timidity in campaign tactics is and will continue to be a problem. As leaders they're great, as aggressive campaigners I have my doubts.


39 posted on 10/30/2004 3:24:49 PM PDT by Williams
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To: codercpc

That's good but of course those speakers were not shown nation wide.


40 posted on 10/30/2004 3:25:54 PM PDT by Williams
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To: rineaux
I am reading Shadow War by Richard Miniter.....Barely into it and seeing stuff I have not heard about....Saddam Hussein financing Terrorists in Pakistan to try and take down Mushie.....bin Laden signing up with Iran for support in Afghanistan and Iraq with $20 million in money and $10 million in narcotics... offensive to start in March 2004. Lots of detail.... See this thread:

Interview With Richard Miniter, Author of "Shadow War"

41 posted on 10/30/2004 3:26:18 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach (A Proud member of Free Republic ~~The New Face of the Fourth Estate since 1996.)
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To: Batrachian
"Fraud Bump"

And the dems say fair elections in Iraq aren't possible!!

42 posted on 10/30/2004 3:28:24 PM PDT by Churchillspirit
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To: Williams
I agree, I was just kind of surprised this afternoon to get home, and hear all of the "pundits" saying that President Bush was staying away from Bin Laden. I wish Bush would have said something, but I truly did not notice until it was pointed out. All day long all I heard about was Bin Laden, they are not shying away from it.
43 posted on 10/30/2004 3:30:11 PM PDT by codercpc
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To: familyop

Saw a nice sight today - a group of 20-30 college students with Bush/Cheney signs at the intersection of Mt. Diablo and Main in Walnut Creek, CA. Turns out they are from UC Berkeley (?!?!?) and one of them said their group has over 500 members! I thanked them for coming out to the suburbs and fighting the good fight. They were getting a lot of positive responses from drivers and pedestrians - a few liberals rolled their eyes but I didn't see any confrontations. I guess Kerry supporters just don't have any passion for their man. ;)


44 posted on 10/30/2004 3:30:57 PM PDT by Mr. Jeeves
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To: ananda

"Were the polls neck and neck right up to election day?"

Same as yours, with the media reporting over and over that it was going to be close...


45 posted on 10/30/2004 3:31:40 PM PDT by Fred Nerks (Understand Evil: Read THE LIFE OF MUHAMMAD free pdf. See FRED NERKS for link)
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To: familyop

bump


46 posted on 10/30/2004 3:37:15 PM PDT by Oldeconomybuyer (The democRATS are near the tipping point.)
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To: Batrachian
No the opposite is true.

Polls have consistently under sampled GOP voters.

I think the 6% total is finally accurate.

I expect a final 10-15% lead with Democrats and Independents choosing Bush.

47 posted on 10/30/2004 3:42:31 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration
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To: Irish Eyes; Williams
This is really just noise as the new Fox poll is a one day snapshot of <300 persons ....
48 posted on 10/30/2004 3:43:26 PM PDT by dodger
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To: Williams
Hey Williams, you have to stop listening to the MSM.

Is that why Cronkite said Rove was behind the tape, because it is helping Kerry?

Any reminding of people of 9/11 is going to help Bush.

49 posted on 10/30/2004 3:44:00 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration
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To: Williams

Do you think that on Nov. 3, there will still be unusued political ammunition on the table of President Bush?


50 posted on 10/30/2004 3:44:31 PM PDT by Theodore R.
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