Numerical Poll Analysis: Fox News/Opinion Dynamics - July to October, 2004.

Fox News poll, October 28-29, 2004 ^ | October 31st, 2004 | dvwjr

[dvwjr]

Here are the 'Rep/Dem/Ind' breakdowns and supporting internal data for the last eight Fox News/Opinion Dynamics presidential preference polls, including the October 27-28, 2004 poll which was released Friday. Also included was the recent Fox News October 28-29, 2004 one-time tracking poll which was quickly released on Saturday. I am publishing this information in one place for easy trend comparison versus looking at each Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll via PDF files. Also included is a re-weighting of the Fox News/Opinion Dynamics polls to the year 2000 presidential election 'Rep/Dem/Ind' partisan affiliation (from VNS exit poll data) results labeled "Adjusted Numbers", for comparison purposes only. No prediction is implied by this 'what-if' re-weighting column, it is just to show what would happen if the Fox News/Opinion Dynamics internals were "Zogby-fied".

[kesg]

Great job again, as always.

[TomEwall]

The pollsters must be running into a fair amount of people who have already voted. I wonder if the answer "I already voted" would qualify you as a likely voter? I suppose to keep their methodology consistent, they would have to reject someone as a likely voter if they fail the criteria even if they have already voted.

I'm going to vote and am a volunteer in the 72 hours plan, but would not be considered a likely voter, by Gallup anyway. I wonder how many there are like me.

[dangus]

I swear that Rupert Murdoch is secretly a big-time Democrat, but a brilliant businessman who simply figured out how to gain the trust and marketshare of the 160 million conservatives out there.

Fox broke the DUI story
Fox is relentlessly negative on the polls, even routinely mischaracterizing them
Fox's Prime-Time lineup is 6 liberals, 1 conservative

AND GODDAMMIT, I WANT TO STRANGLE SCOTT PETERSON JUST TO GET HIS DAMNED TRIAL OFF THE F---ING AIRWAVES!

I AM SO DAMNED SICK OF SCOTT PETERSON!!!

[tobyhill]

Saturday polls are full of bull. Over 20 million American's are busy watching their favorite College Football teams play on Saturdays and aren't going to interrupt their day to answer some pollster. A majority of the Democrats surveyed are either "girly Dems" or Friday night "Goth Udultschilds". Of course these Democrats, they do get a hold of, have to Google what University or College means in between stuffing their bowls. FOX News really should get out of the polling business because they continue to publish what they know is wrong. If one should take the number of Registered Democrats and Registered Republicans they will find that they are fairly equal, Dems have about 1% more. Take the Independents and they seem to favor President Bush by about 4-5%. That leaves President Bush leading 53.5%-54.5% and Kerry 45.5%-46.5% in a two way race. If one should include Switchable Party Affiliates then Bush runs away with it. It's as simple as that. These MSM Polls are playing the safe game by keeping it this close then will use some event as an excuse why they were so far off. Come Wednesday Bin Laden is their excuse.

[AmishDude]

If you've ever thought of a FReeper of the Year award, dvwjr deserves it.

[Numbers Guy]

Amazing... Bush actually IMPROVED, relative to the partisan breakdown. What's up with Fox trying to dispirit the base?

The problem with all these tracking polls is that their Friday and Saturday polling shows a marked increase in the number of Democrats in the electorate. Apparently there are more Democrats available via phone on Fridays and Saturdays (high school football in the heartland perchance?). It's not a conspiracy, just sloppy work.

As our intrepid correspondent has shown, when you adjust the party ID numbers, Bush actually had a better day polling in Saturday's poll than in Friday's poll.

Any move toward Kerry, whether actual or due to sampling, makes me nervous, because you just never know for sure. But I'd still guesstimate that Bush has a 2-3 point lead overall, and that there's no sign of any real slippage.

[dvwjr]

That's the 64 thousand dollar question for all pollsters. What is the proportion of Republicans, Democrats and Independents this year. If the Republicans have finally approached parity (or above) with the Democrats in the general public, then the Bush re-election (from a 'popular' vote standard) is reassured. By the Dick Morris data-model standard - any nation-wide 'popular' vote victory margin of 0.70% or above will lead to an electoral college win for Bush, while anything below could lead to an EC tie or of course loss...

I also believe my theory even more strongly that when you are in the last two weeks of an election then the partisan affiliation self-identification of the Republicans and Democrats does NOT bounce around (how they vote might) so any polls that show a difference simply due to the R/D/I split variations should be suspect. Independents for Bush or Kerry I understand, liberal self-identified Republican for Kerry I understand, conservative to moderate self-identified Democrats for Bush I understand (think Ron Silver, Ed Koch) but these other cases the pollsters claim I do not...

Can't wait for the final results (victory!) and from the data-crunching perspective the detailed exit poll numbers from the new organization replacing VNS will be great to look at to see the composition of the American electorate. My hope is that this is the year that the Republican Party regains its status as the majority party as it was from the Civil War to the Great Depression...

dvwjr

[dvwjr]

It's just not the Fox poll, most seem to show stability as the numbers for the base of Republicans and Democrats for Bush and Kerry. The Independents in most polls have been trending slightly towards Bush for the last two weeks (however these Fox News polls have shown the opposite until Friday) but if Fox has another poll out today we can look at that one and add to this thread...


dvwjr

[eddiebear]

Top drawer as always. This is probablt OT, but I noticed that Zogby has it tied at 48% this morning. Given the already known biases involved, this is good news. Keep it up until Tuesday night (or Wednesday if there are lawsuits)

[Cableguy]

You can really see the weekend polling effect coming in, doesn't it? Lots of Dem pickup. Internals show the same thing.