Posted on 10/31/2004 12:29:13 PM PST by anonposter
So what did the Bushies see that others did not?
Despite a wall of pundits conceding Kerry to Michigan, despite 37 of 40 polls tracking Kerry with comfortable margins, the Bushies still believed. They stepped up their Michigan efforts in these final weeks. And now, two days before Election Day, there it is in black and white: Kerry and Bush in a dead heat for Michigan according to The Detroit News and Zogby polls.
While the Bush Team won’t tell you directly, their Michigan faith seems to center on three factors: turnout, minorities, and multi-state strategy.
On turnout. Conventional wisdom says Republicans win when turnout is low; Democrats when turnout is high. Nonsense, says RNC chair Ed Gillespie. “We believe high turnout is good for us,” he said Friday. “My mentor was Haley Barbour, and he taught me that if we can get out our base of families, cultural conservatives, etc. we can win elections.” This would seem to vindicate the massive ad buying by Bush in conservative West Michigan – initially seen as a sign of weakness by a candidate unsure of his base. Instead, the strategy may be driving more people inclined to vote Republican to the polls. In black and union Southeast Michigan, on the other hand, the Bushies may be counting on low turnout for Kerry, who has inspired little passion among key Democratic voting blocs.
On minorities. Perhaps the Bushies see what The Wall Street Journal reported Friday: “Fresh support among traditionally Democratic Jewish and African American voters may have helped tighten races in normally Democratic New Jersey and Michigan.”
Seeking to exploit an opening among culturally-conservative blacks – one poll recently put 18 percent of black voters in Bush’s column – the president reportedly met with 26 African-American leaders, including ministers, politicians, and Don King, during his Pontiac stop last Wednesday.
And while Bush only received 19 percent of the Jewish vote versus Gore/Lieberman in 2000, there is evidence the politically active ethnic group is responding to Bush’s Mideast message. A poll, taken by the liberal American Jewish Committee this summer, gave Bush 25 percent of the Jewish vote, and Jewish Republican activists like Moe Freedman, founder of Detroit’s “Jews for George,” say there has been a noticeable rise in support since then.
On a multi-state strategy. “Michigan is not a state that I think Democrats wanted to be spending their resources or the candidates time in the final days of the race,” says Bush senior strategist Matthew Dowd. Indeed, if Kerry loses Michigan, he cannot win the country.
So by forcing Kerry to defend traditionally-Democratic turf like Michigan, Republicans are better positioned to battle him in states like Florida and Ohio. And, of course, there’s the added bonus of even winning Michigan – a blow to Kerry that would ensure a second Bush term.
By golly, now I know Gillespie is brilliant. He agrees with me on turnout. ;)
I really needed that extra push...I just got a call from our co-chairperson here in lower Michigan reminding me to come and make calls. I wasn't going to...I'm so tired lately..Made house to house calls yesterday and pooped...But now I'm energized once again and I'M HEADING OUT TO THE PHONEBANK... Go Bush Go...RAh Rah...
Get em!
Grab a Red Bull and GO! You can do it, I'm pulling for you.
I encourage all Republicans in the southeastern part of Michigan to advise their friends voting for the President to bring appropriate rain gear as the weather forecast calls for rain most of the day. Be prepared for long lines and stay dry. The northern part of the state has a chance of rain also.
Based on today's latest polls, and figuring tossup states going to the leading candidate, even if just by 1%.
Safe/Strong/Leaning:
Bush: 222
Kerry: 186
Slightly Leaning:
Bush: 79
Kerry: 51
Total (270 to win):
Bush: 301
Kerry: 237
OK...I'M GONE...NO MORE STUPID PUNDITS ON TV...BYE...
I hope Bush takes Michigan. I've got a liberal friend who is actively campaigning for Kerry up there.
I moved from Michigan to Indiana five years ago. I left some liberal friends behind as well.
Been driving them nuts telling that Bush will win by 50 to 100 electoral votes and showing them the electoral maps over and over again.
We'll do it this year. Now to 2008 and the Hildebeast.
"My mentor was Haley Barbour, and he taught me that if we can get out our base of families, cultural conservatives, etc. we can win elections.”
Haley Barbour is a great American. He was the unsung hero in the 90's, while Newt got the limelight and the press and the credit for the Republican victories in 1994, Haley was the RNC chair who put it all together.(No disrespect to Newt, BTW).
Watching the Michigan-Michigan State overtime game made me think this election will be the same- wild! wild! wild! For those of us Sparties-AAAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRHHHHHHHHHHHH....
Is the Marriage Amendment on the ballot in MI?
I think it will take the better part of four years to squash that bug.
They helped insure Republican senate victories in 2002 in CO and MN and were the "underpolled" of that election cycle. Are they still committed to conservative candidates? How come more isn't being said about them, particularly by people like Ralph Reed? Are they going to be the stealth voters this time round?
here in michigan snowmobiles are big business... the Republican party sent out mailers that showed how John Kerry wanted to shut down millions of acres for snowmobiles ATV's etc.. michigan has the biggest snowmobile registers in the country so alot of people are now thinking about that. the U.P. of MI survives in the winter by the snowmobile industry so you can figure they will most certainly vote for Bush.
Is the Marriage Amendment on the ballot in MI?
yes
On a multi-state strategy. “Michigan is not a state that I think Democrats wanted to be spending their resources or the candidates time in the final days of the race,” says Bush senior strategist Matthew Dowd.More believable than Maureen. :')
George W. Bush will win reelection by a margin of at least ten per cent
It makes absolutely no sense to shut down millions of acres in the dead of winter when all the ducks are gone and all the bears are asleep.
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