Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Michigan: WINNING STRATEGY
National Review Online Battlegrounder ^ | 31st Oct 2004 | [Henry Payne

Posted on 10/31/2004 12:29:13 PM PST by anonposter

So what did the Bushies see that others did not?

Despite a wall of pundits conceding Kerry to Michigan, despite 37 of 40 polls tracking Kerry with comfortable margins, the Bushies still believed. They stepped up their Michigan efforts in these final weeks. And now, two days before Election Day, there it is in black and white: Kerry and Bush in a dead heat for Michigan according to The Detroit News and Zogby polls.

While the Bush Team won’t tell you directly, their Michigan faith seems to center on three factors: turnout, minorities, and multi-state strategy.

On turnout. Conventional wisdom says Republicans win when turnout is low; Democrats when turnout is high. Nonsense, says RNC chair Ed Gillespie. “We believe high turnout is good for us,” he said Friday. “My mentor was Haley Barbour, and he taught me that if we can get out our base of families, cultural conservatives, etc. we can win elections.” This would seem to vindicate the massive ad buying by Bush in conservative West Michigan – initially seen as a sign of weakness by a candidate unsure of his base. Instead, the strategy may be driving more people inclined to vote Republican to the polls. In black and union Southeast Michigan, on the other hand, the Bushies may be counting on low turnout for Kerry, who has inspired little passion among key Democratic voting blocs.

On minorities. Perhaps the Bushies see what The Wall Street Journal reported Friday: “Fresh support among traditionally Democratic Jewish and African American voters may have helped tighten races in normally Democratic New Jersey and Michigan.”

Seeking to exploit an opening among culturally-conservative blacks – one poll recently put 18 percent of black voters in Bush’s column – the president reportedly met with 26 African-American leaders, including ministers, politicians, and Don King, during his Pontiac stop last Wednesday.

And while Bush only received 19 percent of the Jewish vote versus Gore/Lieberman in 2000, there is evidence the politically active ethnic group is responding to Bush’s Mideast message. A poll, taken by the liberal American Jewish Committee this summer, gave Bush 25 percent of the Jewish vote, and Jewish Republican activists like Moe Freedman, founder of Detroit’s “Jews for George,” say there has been a noticeable rise in support since then.

On a multi-state strategy. “Michigan is not a state that I think Democrats wanted to be spending their resources or the candidates time in the final days of the race,” says Bush senior strategist Matthew Dowd. Indeed, if Kerry loses Michigan, he cannot win the country.

So by forcing Kerry to defend traditionally-Democratic turf like Michigan, Republicans are better positioned to battle him in states like Florida and Ohio. And, of course, there’s the added bonus of even winning Michigan – a blow to Kerry that would ensure a second Bush term.


TOPICS: Editorial; Politics/Elections; US: Michigan
KEYWORDS: battleground; deadheat; gwb2004; kewl; losermankerry; napalminthemorning; polls; purplestates

1 posted on 10/31/2004 12:29:13 PM PST by anonposter
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: anonposter

By golly, now I know Gillespie is brilliant. He agrees with me on turnout. ;)


2 posted on 10/31/2004 12:32:55 PM PST by Bahbah (Proud member of the pajamahadeen)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: anonposter

I really needed that extra push...I just got a call from our co-chairperson here in lower Michigan reminding me to come and make calls. I wasn't going to...I'm so tired lately..Made house to house calls yesterday and pooped...But now I'm energized once again and I'M HEADING OUT TO THE PHONEBANK... Go Bush Go...RAh Rah...


3 posted on 10/31/2004 12:36:15 PM PST by queenkathy
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: queenkathy

Get em!


4 posted on 10/31/2004 12:37:33 PM PST by Fenris6 (3 Purple Hearts in 4 months w/o missing a day of work? He's either John Rambo or a Fraud)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: queenkathy

Grab a Red Bull and GO! You can do it, I'm pulling for you.


5 posted on 10/31/2004 12:41:24 PM PST by hobson
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: Bahbah

I encourage all Republicans in the southeastern part of Michigan to advise their friends voting for the President to bring appropriate rain gear as the weather forecast calls for rain most of the day. Be prepared for long lines and stay dry. The northern part of the state has a chance of rain also.


6 posted on 10/31/2004 12:41:37 PM PST by kempster
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: anonposter

Based on today's latest polls, and figuring tossup states going to the leading candidate, even if just by 1%.

Safe/Strong/Leaning:

Bush: 222
Kerry: 186

Slightly Leaning:

Bush: 79
Kerry: 51

Total (270 to win):

Bush: 301
Kerry: 237


7 posted on 10/31/2004 12:42:20 PM PST by Lunatic Fringe (http://www.drunkenbuffoonery.com/mboards/)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: hobson

OK...I'M GONE...NO MORE STUPID PUNDITS ON TV...BYE...


8 posted on 10/31/2004 12:43:15 PM PST by queenkathy
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: queenkathy

I hope Bush takes Michigan. I've got a liberal friend who is actively campaigning for Kerry up there.


9 posted on 10/31/2004 12:54:33 PM PST by proudofthesouth (Boycotting movies since 1988)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: queenkathy
"really needed that extra push...I just got a call from our co-chairperson here in lower Michigan reminding me to come and make calls. I wasn't going to...I'm so tired lately..Made house to house calls yesterday and pooped...But now I'm energized once again and I'M HEADING OUT TO THE PHONEBANK... Go Bush Go...RAh Rah..."

Go GO GO!!! Bring the sucker home! I spent my entire summer in Connecticut (a real GOP stronghold!!!!!) making the same calls. But hey I consider it a victory that we landed a UCONN poll that actually had Bush up by one point in CT! Dont get me wrong CT will go for Kerry, but its great to give the rats hell any where any way any and every day!

Bring Michigan home!... 4 more years!... its too important not to do all we can!
10 posted on 10/31/2004 12:55:39 PM PST by redwhiteandblue
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: proudofthesouth

I moved from Michigan to Indiana five years ago. I left some liberal friends behind as well.

Been driving them nuts telling that Bush will win by 50 to 100 electoral votes and showing them the electoral maps over and over again.

We'll do it this year. Now to 2008 and the Hildebeast.


11 posted on 10/31/2004 1:04:21 PM PST by MarkBSenior
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: anonposter

"My mentor was Haley Barbour, and he taught me that if we can get out our base of families, cultural conservatives, etc. we can win elections.”

Haley Barbour is a great American. He was the unsung hero in the 90's, while Newt got the limelight and the press and the credit for the Republican victories in 1994, Haley was the RNC chair who put it all together.(No disrespect to Newt, BTW).


12 posted on 10/31/2004 1:08:42 PM PST by hinckley buzzard
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: anonposter

Watching the Michigan-Michigan State overtime game made me think this election will be the same- wild! wild! wild! For those of us Sparties-AAAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRHHHHHHHHHHHH....


13 posted on 10/31/2004 1:17:48 PM PST by Elmer Gantry
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: anonposter

Is the Marriage Amendment on the ballot in MI?


14 posted on 10/31/2004 1:19:03 PM PST by dawn53
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: MarkBSenior
We'll do it this year. Now to 2008 and the Hildebeast.

I think it will take the better part of four years to squash that bug.

15 posted on 10/31/2004 1:23:29 PM PST by Slyfox
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: anonposter
I really wish I was hearing more about the conservative Christian vote. That's the segment that helped Reagan but over four-million stayed home in 2000 when the DUI info was made known. Where are they this year?

They helped insure Republican senate victories in 2002 in CO and MN and were the "underpolled" of that election cycle. Are they still committed to conservative candidates? How come more isn't being said about them, particularly by people like Ralph Reed? Are they going to be the stealth voters this time round?

16 posted on 10/31/2004 1:31:45 PM PST by MHT
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Slyfox

here in michigan snowmobiles are big business... the Republican party sent out mailers that showed how John Kerry wanted to shut down millions of acres for snowmobiles ATV's etc.. michigan has the biggest snowmobile registers in the country so alot of people are now thinking about that. the U.P. of MI survives in the winter by the snowmobile industry so you can figure they will most certainly vote for Bush.


17 posted on 10/31/2004 1:38:51 PM PST by endangered in mi
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: dawn53

Is the Marriage Amendment on the ballot in MI?

yes


18 posted on 10/31/2004 1:53:30 PM PST by Gimme
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

To: blam; Ernest_at_the_Beach; FairOpinion; ValerieUSA
On a multi-state strategy. “Michigan is not a state that I think Democrats wanted to be spending their resources or the candidates time in the final days of the race,” says Bush senior strategist Matthew Dowd.
More believable than Maureen. :')

George W. Bush will win reelection by a margin of at least ten per cent

19 posted on 10/31/2004 2:16:11 PM PST by SunkenCiv ("All I have seen teaches me trust the Creator for all I have not seen." -- Emerson)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: endangered in mi

It makes absolutely no sense to shut down millions of acres in the dead of winter when all the ducks are gone and all the bears are asleep.


20 posted on 10/31/2004 2:30:35 PM PST by Slyfox
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 17 | View Replies]

To: anonposter

FWIW, I was at the Bush Rally at the Pontiac Silverdome last Wednesday and I was surprised at the Jewish turnout. They were even out front handing out bumper stickers, posters and selling "Jews for Bush" t'shirts......... Good for them, maybe they can get thru to the NY Jewish community


21 posted on 10/31/2004 3:20:37 PM PST by Hot Tabasco (Where can a guy live where people are friendly, bird hunting is great and COL is affordable?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: redwhiteandblue

ok i'm home now...2 more days...and then it's all over!! Felt food to make those calls.


22 posted on 10/31/2004 5:52:17 PM PST by queenkathy
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: queenkathy

oops...I must be hungry...I meant good...not food...


23 posted on 10/31/2004 5:53:52 PM PST by queenkathy
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 22 | View Replies]

To: queenkathy


I am from a small town in Saginaw Co. My brother live there and alway vote for the rats.
I talk to him about the election. ----He does not like Kerry and mad about the Rats treatment of Gephardt------He stated you can not trust that %^#$$ man. ---most people will vote for Bush in this union town, and always votes Rat--


24 posted on 10/31/2004 6:04:58 PM PST by ralph rotten
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 23 | View Replies]

To: MHT
I really wish I was hearing more about the conservative Christian vote.

I think they will be there. The marriage amendment is on the ballot and I think that will bring a lot of people out that might otherwise sit it out.

25 posted on 10/31/2004 6:11:53 PM PST by Netizen
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: ralph rotten

I know...my husband is a member of UAW...he says most of the people are breaking rank with the leadership. I called a few union people tonight and I think the marriage ammendment is going to bring out the Christians and that will break it towards Bush...


26 posted on 10/31/2004 6:22:11 PM PST by queenkathy
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 24 | View Replies]

To: anonposter; GatorGirl; maryz; afraidfortherepublic; Antoninus; Aquinasfan; livius; ...

The Catholic volunteer effort is immense. DOMA will lead Michigan into sealing the blowout Tuesday night. Deo Gratias!


27 posted on 10/31/2004 6:24:10 PM PST by narses (If you want ON or OFF my Catholic Ping List email me. + http://www.alamo-girl.com/)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: queenkathy

"...and I think the marriage ammendment is going to bring out the Christians and that will break it towards Bush..."

Who can argue with the Queen? You are right on! And beautiful too.


28 posted on 10/31/2004 6:25:16 PM PST by narses (If you want ON or OFF my Catholic Ping List email me. + http://www.alamo-girl.com/)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 26 | View Replies]

To: dawn53
Voters in eleven states face gay-marriage amendments Nov. 2:

Arkansas

Georgia

Kentucky

Michigan

Mississippi

Montana

North Dakota

Ohio

Oklahoma

Oregon

Utah

This means big conservative turnout.

29 posted on 10/31/2004 6:26:01 PM PST by petercooper (Everything I ever needed to know about Islam, I learned on 9-11-01.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

To: narses

That's right...I'm the Queen, that's why...I have that saying on a T-Shirt...lol...I only wish. I really think Michigan will go for Bush. Maybe it's wishful thinking. I won't let myself think any other way. I snuck over on DU this afternoon for about 30 seconds. Man they are a depressing bunch. Swearing, name calling, filth! And that was just their pet names to each other!


30 posted on 10/31/2004 6:28:50 PM PST by queenkathy
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 28 | View Replies]

To: anonposter
One factor that I read from RealClearPolitics was a good article from the NY Daily News that made sense.

The Polish Catholics are upset with Kerry (Kerry did not mention Poland in debate as part of force in Iraq). The Jewish community is upset because Kerry's strongest supporters in Michigan are Arab-American's -- which raises concern about the security of Israel.

Then the African-American ministers are pushing against gay marriage -- trying to get people to vote for a Ban on Gay Marriage. But Kerry is in favor of Gay Marriage. These African-American ministers know right from wrong, and there not enthused into whipping up the vote for Kerry (his immorality is a factor).

Add this up, and Michigan might be a surprise with Pennsylvania. New Jersey is in play, as well as Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin.

There are not enough resources to try to hold ground or gain ground in all these areas, and focus on Florida and Ohio.

Sean Connery once said he would never make another James Bond film, but he did. It was called something like Never say Never Again.

The big M of Michigan and Momentum seems to be swinging to Bush in a number of places.

31 posted on 10/31/2004 6:29:42 PM PST by topher
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: narses

But the awful thing is that I had a Kerry flier and a DOMA flier on my car after Mass today.
I wish it had been a Bush flier, but I have to say that there are more Bush stickers on cars than Kerry in the parking lot.


32 posted on 10/31/2004 6:29:45 PM PST by netmilsmom (Conservative women smile with their soul!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 27 | View Replies]

To: queenkathy
Here I am in Indiana, which is already in the Bush column.

Thank you SO MUCH for making the effort to make those calls! I am really appreciative of folks like you who are making the extra push. God bless you!

33 posted on 10/31/2004 6:30:12 PM PST by Miss Marple
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 23 | View Replies]

To: Miss Marple

Aw, thank you for that nice encouragement...That gives me strength for tomorrow...God bless you...


34 posted on 10/31/2004 6:33:31 PM PST by queenkathy
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 33 | View Replies]

To: hinckley buzzard

Haley was not alone. He was co-chair with a lady named Evelyn McPhail, another great American.


35 posted on 10/31/2004 6:35:04 PM PST by petitfour
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: hobson

Grab some co-Q 10 and B complex and GO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


36 posted on 10/31/2004 6:38:10 PM PST by FrdmLvr
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: netmilsmom

I remember lefletting cars for Right to Life in church parking lots during mass, we'd get the mass schedules and hit as many as we could the couple of Sundays before the election. Sadly, one priest called the cops on me and my two kids, but we'd left before they got there.


37 posted on 10/31/2004 6:43:05 PM PST by FrdmLvr
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 32 | View Replies]

To: queenkathy
Thank you so much for hitting the phones and getting out the vote for the president. I'm in Louisiana where we expect the president to win handily. We're still trying to turn out a bigger vote for him, and we're trying to elect our first Republican senator since Reconstruction. What we're doing is important, but your efforts could really change the election. I hope all the best for you over the next two days.

Bill

38 posted on 10/31/2004 7:29:37 PM PST by WFTR (Liberty isn't for cowards)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: anonposter
Go Michigan Go! A win there would mean "Goodnight, Mr. Kerry."

Democrats for Bush Flyer -- Print it, copy it, distribute it
39 posted on 10/31/2004 7:40:06 PM PST by Antoninus (A conservative bases his politics on his morals. ... A liberal bases his morals on his politics.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: queenkathy

Yes, make those calls. We are doing them out here in CA. Just in case a Bush landslide depresses voter turnout of Dems here in CA. If you guys can win Michigan, we have a chance.


40 posted on 11/01/2004 1:54:57 AM PST by nickcarraway
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: FrdmLvr

God bless you - that happened to me and my kids once! It was great! Just caused us to renew our efforts!


41 posted on 11/01/2004 2:03:20 AM PST by Anita1
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 37 | View Replies]

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson