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Marshall claims Bush +3 in Poll to be released this afternoon
http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com ^

Posted on 10/31/2004 1:09:36 PM PST by VAGOP

Good news if true. No indication of what poll. Hopefully not GAllup since the PResident will hopefully have a larger lead in Gallup.


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: gwb2004; ishotthesheriff; kewl; marshalldillon; marshallfaulk; marshallfields; marshamarshamarshall; polls; thurgoodmarshall
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1 posted on 10/31/2004 1:09:36 PM PST by VAGOP
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To: VAGOP

Hopefully it's ABC/WaPo beginning to show a Bush trendline.


2 posted on 10/31/2004 1:11:23 PM PST by puroresu
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To: VAGOP

IS ABC/WAPO due out? Otherwise, it's probably Gallup.


3 posted on 10/31/2004 1:12:09 PM PST by Cosmo (Got wood?)
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To: puroresu

Unfortunately ABC/WAPO was already released at 48-48. It may be NBC/Wall St. Journal.


4 posted on 10/31/2004 1:12:22 PM PST by VAGOP
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To: VAGOP

When does Gallup come out? Isn't that usually a Sunday or Monday poll?


5 posted on 10/31/2004 1:12:42 PM PST by Gunder
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To: VAGOP

who is marshall?


6 posted on 10/31/2004 1:13:01 PM PST by reflecting (I'm reading what all of you are saying)
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To: Gunder

I think Gallup comes at 5 p.m. Eastern.


7 posted on 10/31/2004 1:13:38 PM PST by Galtoid
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To: VAGOP

I think the Poll he is speculating on is TIME. They usually come out on Sundays


8 posted on 10/31/2004 1:13:47 PM PST by slowhand520
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To: Gunder

I think that if it was Gallup it would have been released on CNN during Wolf Blizer (sp?) show- that's why I think it might be NBC.


9 posted on 10/31/2004 1:13:52 PM PST by VAGOP
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To: VAGOP

Whatever poll it is, I'll take +3. It's better than W in a "tie" or behind.


10 posted on 10/31/2004 1:13:54 PM PST by gop_gene
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To: Gunder

Yeah, folks, when does Gallup come out?


11 posted on 10/31/2004 1:13:57 PM PST by JLAGRAYFOX
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To: VAGOP

Yeah I'm hoping for a bigger number from Gallup than this so hopefully it is another poll. Although this is Josh Marshall so who knows, he's as partisan (and illogical) as they come


12 posted on 10/31/2004 1:14:01 PM PST by Dr Snide (vis pacem, para bellum - Prepare for war if you want peace)
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To: VAGOP

I believe Gallup is due out at 5pm. Which means if these results are Gallup the MSM will show a Kerry surge! :-(


13 posted on 10/31/2004 1:14:07 PM PST by tagawgrag
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To: VAGOP

He is spinning the ABC Note column like crazy.


14 posted on 10/31/2004 1:14:11 PM PST by Pikamax
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To: gop_gene

who is Marshall?


15 posted on 10/31/2004 1:14:47 PM PST by edwinland
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To: VAGOP

If this is Gallup, it's not good news


16 posted on 10/31/2004 1:15:01 PM PST by neutrality
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To: Pikamax

Maybe it's CBS/NY Times?


17 posted on 10/31/2004 1:15:09 PM PST by bjcoop
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To: VAGOP

Based on today's latest polls, and figuring tossup states going to the leading candidate, even if just by 1%.

Safe/Strong/Leaning:

Bush: 222
Kerry: 186

Slightly Leaning:

Bush: 79
Kerry: 51

Total (270 to win):

Bush: 301
Kerry: 237


18 posted on 10/31/2004 1:15:27 PM PST by Lunatic Fringe (http://www.drunkenbuffoonery.com/mboards/)
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To: VAGOP

I hope it's not Gallup or Time. Both usually come out late Sunday, or Monday and both had Bush above 50% with a 5 point lead.


19 posted on 10/31/2004 1:16:54 PM PST by West Coast Conservative
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To: VAGOP
If it's Gallup they probably cut a point or two off, just to give some hope to their allies, the DUmmies.

I'm sticking with 52-47 Bush.

20 posted on 10/31/2004 1:16:57 PM PST by Dane (Trial lawyers are the tapeworms to wealth creating society)
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To: neutrality

If its gallup then its back to the 2-3 point race everyone thinks it should be. I never understood the Gallup by 11 points earlier this year.


21 posted on 10/31/2004 1:17:22 PM PST by Pikamax
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To: VAGOP
BUSH BY A LANDSLIDE!!!!!
22 posted on 10/31/2004 1:17:59 PM PST by fightu4it (conquest by immigration and subversion spells the end of US.)
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To: Gunder
Frank Newport with Gallup was on Bill O'Reilly's radio show
on Friday. Newport said that Gallup would release their final polling data on Sunday night/Monday morning. I think it will also include state polling data. That said, it could also be another poll.
23 posted on 10/31/2004 1:18:14 PM PST by infohawk
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To: reflecting

Joshua Micah Marshall is a writer living in Washington, DC. He is a Contributing Writer for the Washington Monthly and a columnist for The Hill. His articles on politics, culture and foreign affairs have also appeared in The American Prospect, The Atlantic Monthly, The Boston Globe, The Financial Times, The Los Angeles Times, The New Republic, The New Yorker, The New York Post, The New York Times, Salon, Slate, and other publications. He has appeared on Crossfire (CNN), Hannity and Colmes (FOX), Hardball (MSNBC), Late Edition (CNN), NewsNight with Aaron Brown (CNN), O'Reilly Factor (FOX), Reliable Sources (CNN), Rivera Live (CNBC), Washington Journal (C-SPAN) and talk radio shows across the United States. He has a bachelors degree from Princeton University and a doctorate in American history from Brown University.


24 posted on 10/31/2004 1:18:52 PM PST by drc43 (John Kerry - A Coward for all Seasons)
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To: Pikamax

Yes, but if their methodology for some reason really favors W, it might mean it's even tighter.


25 posted on 10/31/2004 1:19:13 PM PST by neutrality
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To: VAGOP
This is from Jay Cost:

I am guessing that Gallup and Time come out tomorrow with polls in line with Battleground and Newsweek. Thus, on Tuesday we will see the national, non-tracking surveys with Bush around 50% and the tracking surveys with a closer race thanks to methodological problems.

The poll coming out might be a CBS/NY Times poll. I hope!
26 posted on 10/31/2004 1:19:57 PM PST by West Coast Conservative
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To: VAGOP

27 posted on 10/31/2004 1:20:41 PM PST by drwiii
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To: edwinland
who is Marshall?

I AM THE GOD OF POLLS TO BE RELEASED IN THE NEAR FUTURE! TREMBLE AND MARK IT DOWN!

Regards,
Marshall

28 posted on 10/31/2004 1:21:54 PM PST by Homer_J_Simpson (Ho, Ho, Ho Chi Minh/Loves John Kerry so vote him in!)
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To: West Coast Conservative

you people talk too much about polls. Why is it not good that Gallup has Bush +5?


29 posted on 10/31/2004 1:22:00 PM PST by Perdogg (Dubya - Right Man, Right Job, at the Right Time!)
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To: VAGOP

Wait and see people then look at the sample then discuss


30 posted on 10/31/2004 1:22:03 PM PST by skaterboy (BUSH 306 KERRY 232)
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To: infohawk

Actually the ABC side of the WP/ABC Poll had it 49 to 48...Bush. Marshall is probably getting his info from Rather at CBS or its the Time Poll....Gallop I think will be better for Bush than 48% but he did have a bad week do to the explosives b.s. and should be turning now as we speak as the Asama news cycle gets into high gear...


31 posted on 10/31/2004 1:22:32 PM PST by IndependantVoter
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To: drc43

Perhaps it is a CBS/NY Times poll. He seemed to have had the info on the NYTroGate story before it was published in the NY Times. In fact, NY Times admitted that they published it before they wanted to because it had leaked to the internet.


32 posted on 10/31/2004 1:22:42 PM PST by rocklobster11
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To: fightu4it

THAT'S RIGHT--AND DON'T YOU FORGET IT!!! ;-]


33 posted on 10/31/2004 1:23:57 PM PST by dmw
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To: IndependantVoter

Gallup could easily be 48-45, as Gallup does not make any effort to adjust for party ID. If they get a more heavily Democrat sample this time, it could look like the race is getting closer.


34 posted on 10/31/2004 1:24:09 PM PST by rocklobster11
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I dont think its a Gallup poll. I would think Gallup, being the biggest of them all would release on Monday... the day before.


35 posted on 10/31/2004 1:24:23 PM PST by KerrySuxxor
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To: Perdogg

Because Gallups last poll was Bush up 5. So now if he is up 3 he has lost 2 points. OY these polls are making me nuts. I am getting a glass of wine!


36 posted on 10/31/2004 1:25:19 PM PST by tagawgrag
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To: VAGOP

The Wash Post poll comes out every day at 5:00pm, so I would think that is the one.


37 posted on 10/31/2004 1:25:31 PM PST by RocketMan1
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To: KerrySuxxor

I agree. Gallup and Time will be released tomorrow, most likely. It's probably CBS/NY Times.


38 posted on 10/31/2004 1:25:34 PM PST by West Coast Conservative
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To: VAGOP

I'm going to guess it is the CBS/NYT poll, because the reported margin is 48-45, which is very similar to the last CBS/NYT poll. In fact, it would be a one point improvement over the previous 47-45 result (with Nader included). If so, Bush is in great shape, because this poll tends to be overly infested with Rats.


39 posted on 10/31/2004 1:26:28 PM PST by kesg
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To: RocketMan1

WAPO is already out.. dont know why they did it early, but was out before 12:00pm today..

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/2004tracking/track103104.html


40 posted on 10/31/2004 1:26:39 PM PST by KerrySuxxor
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To: Perdogg
you people talk too much about polls. Why is it not good that Gallup has Bush +5?

because it's just in some people's wiring to be chicken littles... doom and gloomers...

41 posted on 10/31/2004 1:26:46 PM PST by latina4dubya
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To: All

Whoever's up in the last Gallup poll wins, right?


42 posted on 10/31/2004 1:27:06 PM PST by Perdogg (Dubya - Right Man, Right Job, at the Right Time!)
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To: Perdogg

No.. its if the lead is 50+ then he wins.. usually.


43 posted on 10/31/2004 1:27:32 PM PST by KerrySuxxor
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To: KerrySuxxor

WaPo has been releasing early on Sundays so that they get talked about on the talk shows. They did it last Sunday too.


44 posted on 10/31/2004 1:28:34 PM PST by rocklobster11
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To: neutrality

Not actually. Just keep looking at the averages of the major reputable polls, and you will see Bush remains about 3 points up from Kerry,a nd at the 50% mark.

Looking good to me...I actaully believed with the weekend polling and all, and the tilt of the MSM and certain pollsters (Zogby vocally being a Kerry support this year--although if one checked closely they would have noticed he has long been a Democrat supporter), that Bush would be down by 2-3% by tonight. All this has actaully been great news for Bush. He polls much better during the week.


45 posted on 10/31/2004 1:30:09 PM PST by Proud Legions
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To: VAGOP

Marshall Crenshaw?
What does he know?


46 posted on 10/31/2004 1:31:21 PM PST by Lancey Howard
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To: VAGOP
My best guess is that this will be the CBS/NYTimes poll. Their last poll in mid-October was 47-45 with Bush leading. Their last poll in 2000 understated Bush's support by 3% so a 48-45 poll from them would be good news.
47 posted on 10/31/2004 1:31:48 PM PST by picturefan
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To: latina4dubya

If Bush is up 5 in Gallup I'd take it anyday. Pretty much spells doom for Kerry.


48 posted on 10/31/2004 1:38:22 PM PST by xuberalles
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To: VAGOP

None of this matters, folks. What matters is whether you and I are doing what we can to get people to vote for Bush. Polls are damn interesting, but not a lock.


49 posted on 10/31/2004 1:38:52 PM PST by Recovering_Democrat (I'm so glad to no longer be associated with the Party of Dependence on Government!)
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To: VAGOP
I think it may be a PEW poll:

Bush has a slight edge at 48 percent and Kerry at 45 percent in a Pew Research Center poll, while tracking polls by ABC News and Fox News have the two running even.
50 posted on 10/31/2004 1:42:00 PM PST by West Coast Conservative
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