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Bush Leads, Uncertainty Reigns (CBS Poll, B49/K46)
CBS News ^ | 10/31/04 | CBS

Posted on 10/31/2004 3:18:54 PM PST by nopey23

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To: CatOwner

"As I was saying" you're not showing me anything I haven't known about for a few days. It's because of the link you provided that I simply disagree with CBS/NYT, if that's OK with you. For example, recent information posted out of Florida today indicated Bush had a conservative estimate of 125,000 vote lead already.


101 posted on 10/31/2004 4:19:36 PM PST by conservativepoet
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To: Cableguy
"16% say they would be excited if Bush wins, and another 31% would be optimistic (but not excited)." seeBS just couldn't let it go! They had to interject "(but not excited)" for Bush, but didn't do so for sKerry! I hate them!
102 posted on 10/31/2004 4:21:59 PM PST by RocketMan1
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To: Barlowmaker

Um, Jesse Jackson screamed "digital divide" long enough?


103 posted on 10/31/2004 4:22:05 PM PST by LS
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To: ambrose

Has Harris released their poll numbers yet. Historically they call it better than anybody else?


104 posted on 10/31/2004 4:23:18 PM PST by Lady Heron
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To: Timeout

Yes, I've noticed this poll phenomenon on Rasmussen & WaPo tracking. It's very annoying because you have to wait until the weekend poll numbers drop off. What's worse is, because the election is always on a Tuesday, the weekend before the election numbers don't drop before the election is over. I wish we could get the election changed to a Thursday so we can have more accurate poll tracking numbers! ;-)


105 posted on 10/31/2004 4:25:50 PM PST by plushaye (President Bush - Four more years! Thanks Swifties.)
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To: nopey23

I hate to think we are down to cherry picking from CBS after all we've said about Dirtwad Dan and co.


106 posted on 10/31/2004 4:26:05 PM PST by Luke21 (Christ is wonderful)
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To: Lady Heron

They did in 2000, but historically Gallup has been the most accurate


107 posted on 10/31/2004 4:26:13 PM PST by traderrob6
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To: All

Just pray that the likely voters model is the best model of who will show up and vote this year, since if it is not, Bush may lose.


"Most recent polls count likely voters, not registered ones. Given the surge in registration, determining who is likely to vote can be tricky. Mellman dubs likely voter models "questionable at best."

If more new voters come out than the pollsters project, that could aid Kerry. The Fox poll gives Kerry a 47-45 percent lead among registered voters. Reuters/Zogby estimates Kerry has a 51-41 percent edge among newly registered voters."


108 posted on 10/31/2004 4:30:05 PM PST by rwfromkansas (BYPASS FORCED WEB REGISTRATION! **** http://www.bugmenot.com ****)
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To: LS

LOL.

You know (on an unrelated note), the ugly thing about the Star Tribune creeps this year is that they are not only insulting the intelligence of their readers and the integrity of their duty by pimping this ridiculous Kerry +8 poll in their "above the fold" Sunday propaganda before the election product, but they are graciously offering to give Minnesotans equally corrupt "tracking polls" tommorow and Tuesday.

They're pulling out ALL THE STOPS. Man, will this victory be sweet or what?


109 posted on 10/31/2004 4:34:38 PM PST by Barlowmaker
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To: LS
I think this should be on ALL threads:

Since most lib's don't have "real jobs", they will be prepared to mobilize Wednesday morning. We, who work and pull this "wagon" should plan to be off at least one day next week to counter the slugs. I'm writing Wednesday-Friday off (in pencil of course). I'm not in a battleground state but who knows what'll happen. I'm ready to go to the trenches and give a commie a wedgee, if I must.

110 posted on 10/31/2004 4:37:49 PM PST by Extremist
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To: nopey23

We can hope for mass suicides at the NY Times and CBS over this. Dan R. make news, kill yourself over this.


111 posted on 10/31/2004 4:38:54 PM PST by bfree
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To: CatOwner

Here's a little info from Powerline on the subject:

Reader Larry Rosenshein alerted us to this CBS News poll which has President Bush with a three-point lead. It is interesting that 20% of those polled say they have already voted; of those 20%, 51% said they voted for President Bush, 43% for John Kerry.

But don't get too excited. It appears that we're only talking about approximately 130 people.

More meaningful, possibly, is that by 49% to 33%, respondents expect Bush to win.


112 posted on 10/31/2004 4:41:15 PM PST by conservativepoet
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To: traderrob6

There was a post several weeks ago showing how Harris was the most accurate historically. It listed all the presidential polls through history and Harris got it right better than any other poll including Gallop. I have not seen any data to show Gallop to be more accurate maybe you have it?


113 posted on 10/31/2004 5:01:20 PM PST by Lady Heron
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To: jmc1969

That poll was done in north Central Park!! Semper Fidelis!!


114 posted on 10/31/2004 5:11:31 PM PST by MCFujiTanker
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To: conservativepoet

This is great news. Do you have a link?


115 posted on 10/31/2004 5:31:17 PM PST by jveritas
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To: Dog; PhiKapMom
Have you seen the new ad in the Philly area .. I think it was a Kerry Ad

Anyhow, it's some guy complaining that Bush has pitted vets against vets and how Kerry is a great war hero .. blah blah blah

And it ends with a picture of Kerry at the Vietnam Wall Memorial scratching a name on a piece of paper

(IMO) It was the most desperate ad I have ever seen
116 posted on 10/31/2004 8:59:10 PM PST by Mo1 (This Sept 10th attitude is no way to protect our country)
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To: Mo1
And it ends with a picture of Kerry at the Vietnam Wall Memorial scratching a name on a piece of paper

Actually, he was trying to scratch a stenciled name into the wall. Fortunately, guards stopped him before "Ho Chi Minh" ended up on the monument.

117 posted on 10/31/2004 9:02:11 PM PST by dagnabbit (Prevent the next 9-11. Stop Islamic immigration and deport Muslim aliens.)
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To: nopey23

BTTT!


118 posted on 10/31/2004 9:03:11 PM PST by Salvation (†With God all things are possible.†)
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To: Mo1

Kerry is losing or you don't pull that stunt. What a cheap, tawdry ad. But then I just read the words his stepson had to say -- what a despicable bunch of people.


119 posted on 10/31/2004 9:07:58 PM PST by PhiKapMom
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To: PhiKapMom

What did he say?

Was it the Jewish lobby comment?? ... not a very smart way to try and get votes if you ask me


120 posted on 10/31/2004 9:27:02 PM PST by Mo1 (This Sept 10th attitude is no way to protect our country)
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To: nopey23

The pumpkin on the Bootyist porch this evening. Big hit with the kids and their parents.

121 posted on 10/31/2004 10:03:17 PM PST by bootyist-monk (<--------------------- Republican Attack Machine)
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To: Torie
"Also ABC"

Yes ABC..with Mark Halperin and his memo to skew all political coverage in favor of John Kerry and against President Bush.
Now why does that not inspire any confidence in me regarding ABC polls?
Over the weekend, not a single poll had Hanoi John Kerry ahead.
Meanwhile, President Bush was ahead by 5 points in one poll and 6 points in another, his worst performance being the polls where he was tied with Kerry.
No matter how you twist it, Bush wins.
122 posted on 11/01/2004 6:11:27 AM PST by KwasiOwusu
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To: kjam22

I haven't ever though the President would lose. Hubby has decided to not watch ANY pundits, etc, because he's worried stiff about voter fraud. I don't know why I'm so confident, but I am. I'm thinking the President will get at least 52% of the vote to Kerry's 48%. I think some of Kerry's folks will abandon him at the last minute, knowing he'll lose anyway, and cast a protest vote for Nader. I want the President to have a resounding win IN SPITE of rampant fraud!! I want the Dems ground into the dirt!!


123 posted on 11/01/2004 6:26:52 AM PST by SuziQ (Bush in 2004-Because we MUST!!!)
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To: kjam22

Well, THAT math didn't quite add up! I meant that I don't expect Kerry to get more than 44%, with 4% going to Nader. I'm hoping that the President gets a large enough vote count that even without Nader, Kerry couldn't have done it!


124 posted on 11/01/2004 6:28:51 AM PST by SuziQ (Bush in 2004-Because we MUST!!!)
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